AI will affect 60% of US jobs and worsen income inequality, IMF warns

Published

10 months ago

January 18, 2024

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Artificial intelligence will affect about 60% of all jobs in the US — and worsen income and wealth inequality, the International Monetary Fund warned.

Advanced economies such as the US are at the greatest risk due to the prevalence of cognitive task-oriented jobs, the IMF said, cautioning that the disruptive technology could replace more than half the jobs available in regions that also include Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Italy.

Comparatively, AI exposure was estimated to impact 40% of jobs in emerging economies and 26% of positions in low-income countries.

“Automation…had the strongest effect on middle-skilled workers, [but] AI displacement risks extend to higher-wage earners,” the new analysis said.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva wrote in a blog post following the release of Sunday’s report that the rapidly-advancing technology provides opportunities to “help less experienced workers enhance their productivity more quickly.”

However, as AI is brought into the workplace, “we may see polarization within income brackets, with workers who can harness AI seeing an increase in their productivity and wages — and those who cannot falling behind,” Georgieva said.

Older workers are most at risk of losing their place to AI as they “may struggle with reemployment, adapting to technology, mobility and training for new job skills.”

In contrast, “younger workers who are adaptable and familiar with new technologies may also be better able to leverage the new opportunities.”

Georgieva called the findings “a troubling trend” that she urged policymakers to “proactively address to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions.”

The IMF report was released as the world’s business and political leaders flew Monday to the Swiss resort town of Davos for the annual World Economic Forum.

AI is expected to be the hot topic, as The Post reported, at this year’s confab, which runs through Friday with the theme of “Rebuilding Trust.”

Global executives are increasingly worried about the long term viability of their businesses, a PricewaterhouseCoopers pre-Davos survey released Monday showed, with pressures mounting from generative artificial intelligence and climate disruption.

Some 45% of more than 4,700 global CEOs surveyed do not believe their businesses will survive, barring significant changes, in the next 10 years, the “Big Four” auditor said.

“There’s the 55% who think they don’t have to change radically, and I would argue that’s a little naive because the world is changing so fast around them,” PwC Global Chairman Bob Moritz told the Reuters Global Markets Forum ahead of the meetings.

Advancements in generative AI were top of the concerns for most survey respondents, with almost 75% predicting it would significantly change their business in the next three years.

The US continues to weigh federal regulation of the burgeoning technology after a much-hyped summit in Washington, DC, last September. TheEuropean Union, meanwhile,reached a tentative dealin December thatdrew up some guardrails.

Last April, Goldman Sachs warned generative AI — which is trained on different sets of data to learn pattern recognition — could impact as many as 300 million full-time jobs globally.

A month later, AI was blamed for nearly 4,000 Americans losing their jobs, according to the analytics firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, which cited market and economic conditions as well as mergers and acquisitions as key factors.

On the positive side, Goldman Sachs said that generative AI — which is seen in OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Bard and Microsoft’s Copilot — could boost GDP by as much as 7% thanks to an increase in productivity.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also touted AI’s “tremendous” impact on the world in an interview with Fox Business last week, calling the technology “crucial.”

“It’s going to change a tremendous amount of stuff in health care alone. It may come up with new compounds. It could do a better job diagnosing diseases, preventing diseases,” Dimon told Fox.

“God knows what it’s going to do for people. It may have some downsides. It’s very hard to figure out how you should regulate it, but it might eventually have to be some regulations around it,” he added.

One of the latest breakthroughs in AI has seen the medical industry rolling out “the world’s first AI doctor’s office,” which is slated to open this year in New York and other major US metros.

Called CarePod, the doctor’s office is actually a self-service cube where patients can be screened for issues relevant to diabetes, hypertension, and depression and anxiety, according to its maker, Forward.

The high-tech health stops will reportedly be installed in malls, gyms and offices for members who pay its $99-per-month fee.

With Post wires

Entertainment

Gary Lineker says ‘right time’ to leave Match Of The Day as he hints of changes to show’s format

Published

3 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Gary Lineker says 'right time' to leave Match Of The Day as he hints of changes to show's format

Gary Lineker has said it is “the right time” to leave Match Of The Day and hinted the BBC could change the format of the Premier League highlights show.

The 63-year-old will step down as host at the end of the season and described his time on the show as an “absolute joy and privilege”.

Speaking on his podcast, The Rest Is Football, he said: “It has been an absolute joy and privilege to present such an iconic show for the BBC.

“But all things have to come to an end.”

Lineker went on to say the broadcaster enters a new three-year deal to host top-flight highlights, and that to stay on for another 12 months “would be a bit weird”.

“I think the next contract they’re looking to do Match Of The Day slightly differently, so I think it makes sense for someone else to take the helm.

“I bowed out in my football career when I felt it was the right time. I feel this is now the right time.”

Lineker refused to speculate who would be taking his place, as rumours grew around Mark Chapman, the regular Match Of The Day 2 presenter, Football Focus host Alex Scott, and BBC sports coverage presenter Gabby Logan.

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“Obviously I don’t know who it’ll be, and I would never tell publicly my preference, I don’t think that’d be the right thing to do – but whoever it is, I would say be yourself,” he said.

“I had to fill the ginormous shoes of certain Des Lynam.

“…I would say just be yourself and enjoy it, it’s a wonderful programme to be a part of. It was brilliant before I took over, and it will be brilliant after I leave.”

Lineker has hosted Match Of The Day since 1999 and will have presented the show for more than a quarter of a century when he leaves in May 2025.

He will continue with the MOTD Top Ten podcast alongside his podcast, which also features BBC pundits Alan Shearer and Micah Richards.

The former England striker has been the BBC’s highest-paid on-air talent for seven consecutive years and was estimated to have earned £1.35m in the year 2023/24.

The BBC said future plans for Match Of The Day would be “announced in due course”.

Business

UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September – slower than expected

Published

3 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September - slower than expected

The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.

The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.

Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.

And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.

Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers,” she said in response to the figures.

“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.

“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.

The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector

The UK’s GDP for the the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.

The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.

It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.

The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.

The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.

Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.

The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.

US

RFK Jr chosen as Donald Trump’s health secretary – as president-elect says he will do ‘unbelievable things’

Published

4 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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RFK Jr chosen as Donald Trump's health secretary - as president-elect says he will do 'unbelievable things'

Donald Trump has chosen vaccine sceptic Robert F Kennedy Jr as his new health secretary and said he will do “unbelievable things”.

The news was announced by Donald Trump Jr on X, before the president-elect confirmed the appointment just moments later.

Former Democrat RFK Jr, the nephew of former president John F Kennedy, had been running as an independent presidential candidate but dropped out of the race and endorsed Mr Trump in August.

In return for Mr Kennedy’s support during the election, president-elect Trump pledged to give him a “big role” – and RFK Jr’s preference for the health position was widely reported.

Mr Trump spoke on Thursday night at a gala, hosted at his Mar-a-Lago retreat in Florida, which included tech billionaire Elon Musk and actor Sylvester Stallone.

Directly addressing RFK Jr, who was in the audience, Mr Trump said: “We want you to come up with things… and ideas… and what you’ve been talking about for a long time. I think you’re going to do some unbelievable things. Nobody’s going to be able to do it like you.”

The health and human services (HHS) department includes the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Medicare, Medicaid and the National Institutes of Health.

RFK Jr will “restore these Agencies to the traditions of Gold Standard Scientific Research, and beacons of Transparency, to end the Chronic Disease epidemic, and to Make America Great and Healthy Again,” the president-elect wrote on X.

Mr Trump added: “For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health.

“The Safety and Health of all Americans is the most important role of any Administration.”

Mr Kennedy is a known vaccine sceptic who has repeated misinformation on multiple occasions, including the discredited theory that childhood immunisations cause autism.

The RFK Jr-led health department will “play a big role in helping ensure that everybody will be protected from harmful chemicals, pollutants, pesticides, pharmaceutical products, and food additives that have contributed to the overwhelming Health Crisis in this Country,” the president-elect added.

Earlier, his son Donald Trump Jr was the first to confirm the appointment, writing on X: “Robert F Kennedy Jr will be The Secretary of Health and Human Services! Promises Made Promises Kept.”

RFK Jr’s position will need to be confirmed with a Senate vote – but even with the chamber under Republican control, his appointment may face opposition because of his views on health issues.

Before Mr Trump announced his choice, Mr Kennedy had already claimed the new president would push to remove fluoride from drinking water on his first day in office. The addition of the compound has been cited as helping to improve dental health.

The department RKF Jr is hoping to oversee has more than 80,000 employees across the United States.