Rwanda vote is a win for Sunak, but it has come at a cost
In the end the rebellion melted away.
For all the talk publicly on Tuesday from rebels that this was about the substance of the bill and definitely NOT a confidence issue in the prime minister, when it came to voting down their leader’s flagship Rwanda plan down, all but 11 rebels caved.
Even as they prepared to walk through the voting lobbies with Rishi Sunak, there was talk about being angry and disappointed in how the government had handled the rebels, but sources in the room tell me that the majority of potential rebels in the end decided they couldn’t, in good conscience, risk collapsing Rishi Sunak’s government.
I’m told that many in the room were swayed by an unlikely ally to the PM, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, who told colleagues that this bill wasn’t perfect but was better than no bill at all, and warned MPs they should only defy Mr Sunak if they were prepared to contemplate a smorgasbord of options from a change of leader, the government falling and a possible early general election.
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Tory Rwanda rebellion is snuffed out
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The win is no doubt a moment to savour for the PM. But it is a win that has cost him. His authority has been tested, and his party remains divided. He didn’t prevail by winning the rebels round but rather came through because MPs decided supporting this bill was better than the other options.
Sir Robert Buckland told me after the vote that the majority of 44 – the same as at second reading – demonstrated the party was getting its act together after months of division and had started the new year with a “will to win”.
But the vote on ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick’s amendment earlier in the evening told a different story. It was the biggest Tory rebellion of Sunak’s premiership so far, with 61 Tories backing the amendment. Mr Sunak might have won the vote on the third reading but he was roughed up along the way.
This is a party still deeply divided, while rivals’ grievances have only grown through these bitter disagreements over how to get the Rwanda policy up and running.
Should the prime minister fail to get flights away by the spring as he’s pledged, the rebels will feel vindicated in their warnings this week that celebrating a win now will count for nothing if in a few months the boats keep coming.
Wednesday night then was only the end of the beginning. The PM now faces hurdles in the House of Lords where peers are likely to try to dilute the legislation, which in turn could cause him headaches in the Commons given that there are plenty of rebels who held their noses this time around, but could baulk at this bill being watered down further.
And then, beyond the parliamentary back and forth, is the question of the courts and legal challenges that could throw a spanner in the works again for Mr Sunak.
But forget for a minute these battles with MPs, with peers, with the courts. The prime minister promised voters a year ago he would “stop the boats” and pledged late last year to get flights away by this spring.
On the night he won the vote, a You Gov poll in The Times showed support for the Tories under the PM has fallen to the lowest level since Liz Truss was in No 10, dropping to 20%, while Labour has a 27 point lead.
Win or not in the Commons, Mr Sunak is losing big with voters and his rebels don’t believe this bill has the grit to turn the Rwanda policy, and linked to that, the Tory party’s fortunes around. But he has at least, for the moment, bought himself more time.
Bitcoin’s latest pullback may already be bottoming out, with asset manager Grayscale arguing that the market is on track to break the traditional four-year halving cycle and potentially set new all-time highs in 2026.
Some indicators are already pointing to a local bottom, not a prolonged drawdown, including Bitcoin’s (BTC) elevated option skew rising above 4, which signals that investors have already hedged “extensively” for downside exposure.
Despite a 32% decline, Bitcoin is on track to disrupt the traditional four-year halving cycle, wrote Grayscale in a Monday research report. “Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year,” the report said.
Related: Cathie Wood still bullish on $1.5M Bitcoin price target: Finance Redefined
Still, Bitcoin’s short-term recovery remains limited until some of the main flow indicators stage a reversal, including futures open interest, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and selling from long-term Bitcoin holders.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, one of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025, added significant downside pressure in November, racking up $3.48 billion in net negative outflows in their second-worst month on record, according to Farside Investors.
More recently, though, the tide has started to turn. The funds have now logged four consecutive days of inflows, including a modest $8.5 million on Monday, suggesting ETF buyer appetite is slowly returning after the sell-off.
While market positioning suggests a “leverage reset rather than a sentiment break,” the key question is whether Bitcoin can “reclaim the low-$90,000s to avoid sliding toward mid-to-low-$80,000 support,” Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.
Related: Strategy unveils new credit gauge to calm debt fears after Bitcoin crash
Fed policy and US crypto bill loom as 2026 catalysts
Crypto market watchers now await the largest “swing factor,” the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Dec. 10. The Fed’s decision and monetary policy guidance will serve as a significant catalyst for 2026, according to Grayscale.
Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 63% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Later in 2026, Grayscale said continued progress toward the Digital Asset Market Structure bill may act as another catalyst for driving “institutional investment in the industry.” However, for more progress to be made, crypto needs to remain a “bipartisan issue,” and not turn into a partisan topic for the midterm US elections.
That effort effectively began with the passage of the CLARITY Act in the House of Representatives, which moved forward in July as part of the Republicans’ “crypto week” agenda. Senate leaders have said they plan to “build on” the House bill under the banner of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, aiming to set a broader framework for digital asset markets.
The bill is currently under consideration in the Republican-led Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott said in November that the committee planned to have the bill ready for signing into law by early 2026.
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Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki declined to sign a bill imposing strict regulations on the crypto asset market, drawing praise from the crypto community and sharp criticism from others in the government.
Nawrocki vetoed Poland’s Crypto-Asset Market Act, saying its provisions “genuinely threaten the freedoms of Poles, their property, and the stability of the state,” according to a statement by the president’s press office on Monday.
Introduced in June, the bill has drawn criticism from industry advocates such as Polish politician Tomasz Mentzen, who had anticipated the president’s refusal to sign it as it cleared parliamentary approval.
Although crypto advocates welcomed the veto as a win for the market, several government officials condemned the move, claiming the president had “chosen chaos” and must bear full responsibility for the outcome.
Why the president vetoed the bill
One of the main reasons cited for the veto was a provision allowing authorities to easily block websites operating in the crypto market.
“Domain blocking laws are opaque and can lead to abuse,” the president’s office said in an official news release.
The president’s office also cited the bill’s widely criticized length, saying its complexity reduces transparency and would lead to “overregulation,” especially when compared with simpler frameworks in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
“Overregulation is an easy way to drive companies to the Czech Republic, Lithuania or Malta, rather than create conditions for them to operate and pay taxes in Poland,” the president said.
Nawrocki also highlighted the excessive amount of supervisory fees, which may prevent startup activity and favor foreign corporations and banks.
“This is a reversal of logic, killing off a competitive market and a serious threat to innovation,” he said.
Critics jump in: “The president chose chaos”
Nawrocki’s veto has triggered a strong backlash from top Polish officials, including Finance Minister Andrzej Domański and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski.
Domański warned on X that “already now 20% of clients are losing their money as a result of abuses in this market,” accusing the president of having “chosen chaos” and saying he bears full responsibility for the fallout.
Related: Spain’s junior ruling party proposes 47% crypto tax in ‘attack against Bitcoin’
Sikorski echoed the concern, saying that the bill was supposed to regulate the crypto market. “When the bubble bursts and thousands of Poles lose their savings, at least they will know who to thank,” Sikorski argued on X.
Crypto advocates, including Polish economist Krzysztof Piech, quickly pushed back, arguing that the president cannot be held responsible for authorities failing to pursue scammers.
He also noted that the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is set to provide investor protections across all EU member states starting July 1, 2026.
Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice
The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will propose a framework for implementing US stablecoin laws later this month, according to its acting chair, Travis Hill.
“The FDIC has begun work to promulgate rules to implement the GENIUS Act; we expect to issue a proposed rule to establish our application framework later this month,” Hill said in prepared testimony to be delivered on Tuesday to the House Financial Services Committee.
He added the agency will also have a “proposed rule to implement the GENIUS Act’s prudential requirements for FDIC-supervised payment stablecoin issuers early next year.”
President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act in July, which created oversight and licensing regimes for multiple regulators, with the FDIC to police the stablecoin-issuing subsidiaries of the institutions it oversees.
The FDIC insures deposits in thousands of banks in the event that they fail, and under the GENIUS Act, it will also be tasked with making “capital requirements, liquidity standards, and reserve asset diversification standards” for stablecoin issuers, said Hill.
Federal agencies, such as the FDIC, publish their proposed rules for public feedback, and they then review and respond to the input, if necessary, before publishing a final version of the rules, a process that can take several months.
Related: Republicans urge action on market structure bill over debanking claims
The Treasury, which will also regulate some stablecoin issuers, including non-banks, began its implementation of the GENIUS Act in August and finished a second period of public comment on its implementation proposal last month.
FDIC is working on tokenized deposit guidelines
Hill said in his remarks that the FDIC has also considered recommendations published in July by the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.
“The report recommends clarifying or expanding permissible activities in which banks may engage, including the tokenization of assets and liabilities,” Hill said.
“We are also currently developing guidance to provide additional clarity with respect to the regulatory status of tokenized deposits,” he added.
Fed helping regulators with stablecoin rules
The Federal Reserve’s vice supervision chair, Michelle Bowman, will also testify on Tuesday that the central bank is “currently working with the other banking regulators to develop capital, liquidity, and diversification regulations for stablecoin issuers as required by the GENIUS Act.”
Bowman added, according to her prepared remarks, that “we also need to provide clarity in treatment on digital assets to ensure that the banking system is well placed to support digital asset activities.”
“This includes clarity on the permissibility of activities, but also a willingness to provide regulatory feedback on proposed new use cases,” she said.
The House Finance Committee’s hearing on Tuesday will also see remarks from the heads of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the National Credit Union Administration, which will both have a role in implementing stablecoin rules.
Magazine: Bitcoin vs stablecoins showdown looms as GENIUS Act nears
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