For all the talk publicly on Tuesday from rebels that this was about the substance of the bill and definitely NOT a confidence issue in the prime minister, when it came to voting down their leader’s flagship Rwanda plan down, all but 11 rebels caved.
Even as they prepared to walk through the voting lobbies with Rishi Sunak, there was talk about being angry and disappointed in how the government had handled the rebels, but sources in the room tell me that the majority of potential rebels in the end decided they couldn’t, in good conscience, risk collapsing Rishi Sunak’s government.
I’m told that many in the room were swayed by an unlikely ally to the PM, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, who told colleagues that this bill wasn’t perfect but was better than no bill at all, and warned MPs they should only defy Mr Sunak if they were prepared to contemplate a smorgasbord of options from a change of leader, the government falling and a possible early general election.
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The win is no doubt a moment to savour for the PM. But it is a win that has cost him. His authority has been tested, and his party remains divided. He didn’t prevail by winning the rebels round but rather came through because MPs decided supporting this bill was better than the other options.
Sir Robert Buckland told me after the vote that the majority of 44 – the same as at second reading – demonstrated the party was getting its act together after months of division and had started the new year with a “will to win”.
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But the vote on ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick’s amendment earlier in the evening told a different story. It was the biggest Tory rebellion of Sunak’s premiership so far, with 61 Tories backing the amendment. Mr Sunak might have won the vote on the third reading but he was roughed up along the way.
This is a party still deeply divided, while rivals’ grievances have only grown through these bitter disagreements over how to get the Rwanda policy up and running.
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Should the prime minister fail to get flights away by the spring as he’s pledged, the rebels will feel vindicated in their warnings this week that celebrating a win now will count for nothing if in a few months the boats keep coming.
Wednesday night then was only the end of the beginning. The PM now faces hurdles in the House of Lords where peers are likely to try to dilute the legislation, which in turn could cause him headaches in the Commons given that there are plenty of rebels who held their noses this time around, but could baulk at this bill being watered down further.
And then, beyond the parliamentary back and forth, is the question of the courts and legal challenges that could throw a spanner in the works again for Mr Sunak.
But forget for a minute these battles with MPs, with peers, with the courts. The prime minister promised voters a year ago he would “stop the boats” and pledged late last year to get flights away by this spring.
On the night he won the vote, a You Gov poll in The Times showed support for the Tories under the PM has fallen to the lowest level since Liz Truss was in No 10, dropping to 20%, while Labour has a 27 point lead.
Win or not in the Commons, Mr Sunak is losing big with voters and his rebels don’t believe this bill has the grit to turn the Rwanda policy, and linked to that, the Tory party’s fortunes around. But he has at least, for the moment, bought himself more time.
Paradigm’s chief legal officer and general counsel said if Roman Storm is found guilty, it could slow future software development in the crypto and fintech industries.
Flawed data has been used repeatedly to dismiss claims about “Asian grooming gangs”, Baroness Louise Casey has said in a new report, as she called for a new national inquiry.
The government has accepted her recommendations to introduce compulsory collection of ethnicity and nationality data for all suspects in grooming cases, and for a review of police records to launch new criminal investigations into historical child sexual exploitation cases.
Image: Baroness Louise Casey carried out the review. Pic: PA
The crossbench peer has produced an audit of sexual abuse carried out by grooming gangs in England and Wales, after she was asked by the prime minister to review new and existing data, including the ethnicity and demographics of these gangs.
In her report, she has warned authorities that children need to be seen “as children” and called for a tightening of the laws around the age of consent so that any penetrative sexual activity with a child under 16 is classified as rape. This is “to reduce uncertainty which adults can exploit to avoid or reduce the punishments that should be imposed for their crimes”, she added.
Baroness Casey said: “Despite the age of consent being 16, we have found too many examples of child sexual exploitation criminal cases being dropped or downgraded from rape to lesser charges where a 13 to 15-year-old had been ‘in love with’ or ‘had consented to’ sex with the perpetrator.”
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3:18
Grooming gangs victim speaks out
The peer has called for a nationwide probe into the exploitation of children by gangs of men.
She has not recommended another over-arching inquiry of the kind conducted by Professor Alexis Jay, and suggests the national probe should be time-limited.
The national inquiry will direct local investigations and hold institutions to account for past failures.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the inquiry’s “purpose is to challenge what the audit describes as continued denial, resistance and legal wrangling among local agencies”.
On the issue of ethnicity, Baroness Casey said police data was not sufficient to draw conclusions as it had been “shied away from”, and is still not recorded for two-thirds of perpetrators.
‘Flawed data’
However, having examined local data in three police force areas, she found “disproportionate numbers of men from Asian ethnic backgrounds amongst suspects for group-based child sexual exploitation, as well as in the significant number of perpetrators of Asian ethnicity identified in local reviews and high-profile child sexual exploitation prosecutions across the country, to at least warrant further examination”.
She added: “Despite reviews, reports and inquiries raising questions about men from Asian or Pakistani backgrounds grooming and sexually exploiting young white girls, the system has consistently failed to fully acknowledge this or collect accurate data so it can be examined effectively.
“Instead, flawed data is used repeatedly to dismiss claims about ‘Asian grooming gangs’ as sensationalised, biased or untrue.
“This does a disservice to victims and indeed all law-abiding people in Asian communities and plays into the hands of those who want to exploit it to sow division.”
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3:07
From January: Grooming gangs: What happened?
The baroness hit out at the failure of policing data and intelligence for having multiple systems which do not communicate with each other.
She also criticised “an ambivalent attitude to adolescent girls both in society and in the culture of many organisations”, too often judging them as adults.
‘Deep-rooted failure’
Responding to Baroness Casey’s review, Ms Yvette Cooper told the House of Commons: “The findings of her audit are damning.
“At its heart, she identifies a deep-rooted failure to treat children as children. A continued failure to protect children and teenage girls from rape, from exploitation, and serious violence.
She added: “Baroness Casey found ‘blindness, ignorance, prejudice, defensiveness and even good but misdirected intentions’ all played a part in this collective failure.”
Ms Cooper said she will take immediate action on all 12 recommendations from the report, adding: “We cannot afford more wasted years repeating the same mistakes or shouting at each other across this House rather than delivering real change.”
Image: Home Secretary Yvette Cooper responded to the report. Pic: PA
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: “After months of pressure, the prime minister has finally accepted our calls for a full statutory national inquiry into the grooming gangs.
“We must remember that this is not a victory for politicians, especially the ones like the home secretary, who had to be dragged to this position, or the prime minister. This is a victory for the survivors who have been calling for this for years.”
Ms Badenoch added: “The prime minister’s handling of this scandal is an extraordinary failure of leadership. His judgement has once again been found wanting.
“Since he became prime minister, he and the home secretary dismissed calls for an inquiry because they did not want to cause a stir.
“They accused those of us demanding justice for the victims of this scandal as, and I quote, ‘jumping on a far right bandwagon’, a claim the prime minister’s official spokesman restated this weekend – shameful.”
The government has promised new laws to protect children and support victims so they “stop being blamed for the crimes committed against them”.