Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda legislation has been approved by MPs, but getting deportation flights off the ground remains far from a done deal.
The legislation will now be pushed further through the parliamentary sausage machine that includes the House of Lords, parliamentary ping pong, and then potentially a nod from the King.
But what exactly happens next, can the bill be changed – and could it even be stopped from becoming law?
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This includes an initial vote – and then if it passes, peers can propose amendments. These would then be debated and voted on.
Due to the Lords regulating itself, the restrictions on the amount of time that can be taken to debate are looser, and so things can move slightly slower than in the Commons.
Unlike in the Commons, the Lords is not bound in the same way by government restrictions on what can be discussed or how long for.
After the House votes on what substantial amendments it wants to make, members “tidy-up” the bill to make sure there are no loopholes.
It is at this point that “ping pong” begins; the bill will bounce between the Commons and Lords, with each house voting on whether to accept the other’s amendments.
There is a potential that the Lords could delay the bill until the next general election – but that is something which will be covered in a later section.
It is worth noting the government does not have a majority in the Lords – with 270 of 785 peers belonging to the Conservative Party.
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Another question is when the Lords will start considering the bill, and when voting will take place.
As with many things to do with the Westminster parliamentary process, very little is set in stone and the best we can do is take an educated guess.
One Labour source set out their expectation of how the next few months will go.
They said the earliest the Lords could have a debate and a vote is in the week starting 29 January.
Image: The House of Lords – seen here during the King’s speech – could block the law
The next step – when the upper chamber debates the bill and any potential changes – could take place between 12 February and 14 February, when the Commons is in recess.
The next set of voting in the Lords would likely take place towards the end of February or the start of March.
Ping pong would likely begin in the second week of March. If the government gets the bill passed, then it is likely to take a few months for things to be put in place for flights to Rwanda to take off.
Could the Lords block the bill?
In short, yes.
In the first instance, members could simply vote down the legislation, although that is quite unlikely.
It could also be held up during the ping pong stage.
This would see the two houses adding and removing each other’s amendments on repeated occasions.
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The Lords’ ability to hold up legislation is normally balanced by the fact that a government can reintroduce a bill in a subsequent parliament session – which would mean after a King’s Speech – and pass it without the Lords’ consent.
But this step – included in the Parliament Act – also requires a minimum of a year between the first Commons vote on the legislation, and it passing the same House in the subsequent parliament.
Because an election needs to be called in December this year at the latest, it is possible for the Lords to wait out the clock until then – preventing the use of the Parliament Act.
In what may prove a difficult development for the government, a committee set up to evaluate international treaties on behalf of the Lords has recommended the treaty upon which the Safety of Rwanda Bill is based should not be ratified.
The International Agreements Committee said ratification “should wait until parliament is satisfied that the protections it provides have been fully implemented since parliament is being asked to make a judgement, based on the treaty, about whether Rwanda is safe“.
Steve Reed has conceded that the bulk of the £104bn of water industry investment which he boasts Labour has attracted since coming to office will come from bill payers.
In an interview with Sky News, the environment secretary sought to blame the previous Tory government for a string of high profile investors walking away from the sector over the last year.
Mr Reed does not accept claims that further threats to jail water bosses and promises to curb price rises have deterred investment.
Instead, he told Sky News that “by bringing in the £104bn of private sector investment that we secured at the end of last year, we can make sure that the investment is going in to support” the industry.
When challenged that the £104bn was total expenditure not total investment, and that bill payers would pay back this expenditure over the coming decades, Mr Reed conceded this was right – and the money ultimately is coming from bill payers.
“The money comes in from investors up front so we can do that spending straight away,” he said.
“Over decades, the investors got a modest return from the bills that customers are paying. That’s how investment works.”
Some investors have warned they do not think it viable to fund the UK water sector because of the hostile political tone of ministers and lack of certainty.
Ministers have said the government does not want to renationalise water as it would mean years of legal wrangling and cost a lot of money.
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2:50
Minister rules out nationalising the water
Labour has launched a record 81 criminal investigations into water companies over sewage dumping since winning the election last year.
Water company bosses could be jailed for up to five years and the companies fined hundreds of millions of pounds if they are found guilty.
Mr Reed committed to not interfering with those prosecutions, saying it would be “highly inappropriate” for any minister to do so.
Hashed Emergent’s Vishal Achanta told Cointelegraph that COINS Act aims to turn India from a “regulatory minefield” into a destination of choice for the crypto community.
Nigel Farage has said violent UK offenders could be jailed overseas under his plans to cut crime by half.
The Reform UK leader named El Salvador as a likely destination, though he said he has not held conversations with officials there and “multiple” partners would be considered.
El Salvador is home to a notorious mega-prison, the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT).
In a speech on law and order on Monday, Mr Farage said: “It is quite astonishing that to keep a prisoner in a British prison it costs nearly £52,000 a year.
“You could send a child Eton for that price.
“So we can send some of our worst violent criminals overseas to serve their terms. If that means Ian Huntley goes to El Salvador. Well, our attitude is ‘so be it’.”
Huntley is serving a life term for the murders of two 10-year-old girls, Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman, in Soham, Cambridgeshire, in 2002.
Image: El Salvador is home to a notorious super-max prison. Pic: Reuters/El Salvadoran government
Asked if he had spoken to any members of the El Salvadoran government about his plans, Mr Farage said he had not but “we do know they’re quite happy to take American violent offenders”.
Reform UK said it wanted to create 10,000 “dynamic” prison places overall by renting cells in third party countries, at a cost of £250m per year. This would involve “multiple partners including El Salvador”, according to a document outlining the plan in further detail.
This will come alongside a number of policies aimed at cutting crime by half if Mr Farage’s party wins the next election.
The Clacton MP wants to hire another 30,000 police officers, put stop and search in every area where knife crime is prevalent and implement a zero-tolerance policy to shoplifting so every offence “however small” is prosecuted.
Mr Farage also said he would free up to 10,000 more prison places by deporting foreign criminals to their country of origin, saying he has already spoken to Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama about this.
He said he would take back British offenders who are incarcerated overseas in return but if countries are still reluctant “we’ll make it very straightforward. We’ll just end travel”.
Mr Farage did not say how much the plans would cost or how they would be funded in his speech, which marks the start of a six week “lawless Britain” campaign.
However, in response to questions from media he said the plans would cost £17.4bn over a five-year parliament.
He said the cost of crime is far greater than that so “it isn’t really a question of can we afford to do this, it’s really a question of we can’t afford not to do this”.
He insisted he would not have to raise taxes, saying the money would come from “huge cuts” to public spending including axing HS2 and net zero policies and reducing the size of the state.
Mr Farage claimed his plans are necessary because parts of Britain are facing “nothing short of societal collapse” due to spiralling crime rates.
Sir Keir Starmer has made halving serious violent crime one of the missions of his government, but the pledge has been somewhat overshadowed by his controversial early prison release scheme, aimed at freeing up prison capacity due to overcrowding.
A spokesperson for the prime minister said he is already deporting foreign national offenders, adding that Mr Farage’s plans are “unfunded and lack detail” and that “we are getting on with it”.
The spokesperson ruled out moving prisoners overseas, saying the government is “focused on investing and fixing prisons here”.
He added: “In the last 14 years we saw only 500 places added to prison estate and since then we have been going further to free up space in our prisons.”