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Fresh from his Commons victory, the prime minister took to the stage on Thursday to declare he was making progress on his plan to send migrants to Rwanda, his party was “completely united” and any failure to deliver on this pledge would not be down to him, but rather a new bogeyman, peers in the House of Lords.

As he warned peers not to “frustrate the will of the people” as the Rwanda bill heads for more scrutiny in the upper chamber, I found myself wondering if the prime minister and his audience of journalists were on the same planet: while Rishi Sunak said he had won the vote, two rebel sources told me that morning that “several” letters of no confidence in the prime minister had been handed into the chair of the backbench 1922 committee overnight.

Meanwhile, a number of his own MPs – including his former home secretary Suella Braverman and immigration minister Robert Jenrick – have publicly argued that failure to get flights off the ground would be the fault of no one else but the prime minister for refusing to strengthen the bill.

Politics live: Rishi Sunak taken to task over ‘utterly bizarre’ and ‘vacuous’ Rwanda news briefing

He lost two deputy party chairmen over the legislation and saw the biggest rebellions of his premiership as 60-plus of his own MPs voted for amendments to stop individual claims and block international courts from grounding flights.

He was also, after all this infighting, polling at levels not seen since the days of Liz Truss, with the Conservatives on 20% in a YouGov poll released last night.

After all that, it might have been better to perhaps not say anything today at all.

One former cabinet minister told me shortly after watching some of the media conference that they found it all rather “odd” and would have counselled the prime minister not to amplify a policy that many think won’t work and has split his party anymore.

“The whole thing is a crazy hill to be fighting on. People now think we are a single issue party,” texted the former cabinet minister, adding in a blowing-up head emoji for good measure.

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PM defends his position amid polls

The logic surely has to be that the prime minister, having won the day, needed to set up a different enemy – the House of Lords – while cautioning that he might not win war.

Because as he tried to deflect the problems away from himself, he also used the media conference to row back on the pledge he made last November that he would get flights away as planned in spring.

Back then, on the back of the Supreme Court ruling that Rwanda was not a safe country, the prime minister told journalists he would “take all necessary steps to ensure we can remove any further blockages to us getting this policy executed and getting planes leaving as planned in the spring of [2024]”.

He went on to say “we are working extremely hard to make sure we can get a plane off as planned in the spring”.

Fast forward to January and Mr Sunak is now refusing to repeat that ambition, refusing on Thursday to say whether he expects asylum seekers to be sent from the UK to Rwanda before the next election. Now it’s “I want to see this happen as soon as practically possible… we are working as fast as we possibly can”.

When I asked him what his message is to those putting in letters of no confidence, who believe Mr Sunak is the “wrong man for the job”, the prime minister didn’t take on the question directly but rather deflected, saying: “I’m interested in sticking with the plan I set out for the British people because that plan is working.

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What next for Rwanda bill?

“It is delivering real change, and if we stick with that plan, we’ll be able to build a brighter future for everyone’s families in this country and a renewed sense of pride in our nation.”

But he can say what he likes, the public seem to have decided that he isn’t working, with his polling after 15 months at the same level seen under Ms Truss.

And as for blaming peers, it might get him the headline he’s looking for today, but what happens come the spring and summer if the flights are still not off the ground and boat crossing are on the rise? Will those rebels such as Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick blame the House of Lords, or their own prime minister for refusing to strengthen the bill?

Read more:
PM ‘clear’ he’ll ignore international law to deport asylum seekers
Sunak challenges Lords to pass bill – what happens next?

I’m told that not one of the 45 MPs in the room of rebels discussing how to vote on Wednesday night believed the bill will work, but didn’t want to risk collapsing the government.

One rebel figure told me they thought there was a 5% chance the flights get off the ground. Mr Sunak of course is gambling that they are wrong and he can get flights away.

But much of this is not in his control, which is why making this a totemic promise of his premiership was a mistake. Because this has become a leadership issue as much as a policy one. And leadership rivals now circling, won’t hesitate to put failure firmly at his door.

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UK central bank still ‘disproportionately cautious’ about stablecoins

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UK central bank still ‘disproportionately cautious’ about stablecoins

The UK’s central bank, the Bank of England (BOE), has released a proposed regulatory regime for stablecoins. The consultation paper took into account the perspectives of the crypto industry, but some observers say it remains restrictive.

BOE released the document on Nov. 10 — some two years after it announced the initial discussion paper. The original offered a vision for crypto that many in the industry claimed would doom the UK’s digital asset space.

The BOE said that it received comments and feedback from a broad range of 46 different stakeholders, including “banks, non-bank payment service providers, payment system operators, trade associations, academia, and individuals.”

The UK’s central bank may have scrapped some more hardline requirements, but some in the industry believe that it isn’t enough. Tom Rhodes, chief legal officer at UK-based stablecoin issuer Agant, said the bank remains “disproportionately cautious and restrictive.”

The bank also released a roadmap for further rulemaking. Source: Bank of England

Bank of England still cautious on stablecoins

The new iteration presents a number of improvements on the 2023 version, Rhodes told Cointelegraph.

“The latest proposals do include some innovative features, such as direct BOE liquidity lines and the ability to repo reserves for liquidity purposes.”

He said that, as it concerns the UK market, “these proposals can be further explored and potentially expanded to create a more competitive backing asset regime, without compromising on stability.”

But despite the “welcome progress in the BOE’s sentiment towards stablecoins,” it has been “unusually vocal about the perceived risks of stablecoins,” said Rhodes.

One of the more controversial restrictions in the paper was limits on what the BOE called a “systemic retail stablecoin.” In the paper, this is defined as a stablecoin that is “widely used by individuals to make everyday payments such as for shopping and receiving salaries.”

The central bank wants to see limits of 20,000 pounds for individuals and 10 million pounds for businesses that accept it as a form of payment. This is an increase from the initial proposal, but the idea of limits on how much crypto you can hold didn’t sit well with some. 

Crypto influencer Aleksandra Huk wrote, “Bank of England wants to cap stablecoin holdings at £20,000. Who gave them the right to tell us what to buy, where to store our money and how much we can have? […] Honestly, this is the best advert ever for privacy coins and for leaving the UK.”

Related: UK crypto hopes stall, but ‘encouraging signs’ are there

There are a few caveats to the suggested rule. Geoff Richards, head of community at the Ontology Network, noted, “The proposal applies only to sterling-denominated stablecoins used in UK payment systems that could become ‘systemic.’ Not USDT, not USDC, not random DeFi tokens.”

Ian Taylor, board member of crypto industry advocacy group CryptoUK, told Cointelegraph that he understands the central bank’s more cautious approach, at least as it applies to the stablecoin limits:

“The Bank of England has a mandate to protect against financial stability. And that financial stability is connected to the banking system. So insofar as banks take deposits and they issue loans against those deposits […] creates credit, this is an economic benefit to any economy that we have.”

The BOE is rightfully worried that taking deposits out of banks would reduce their ability to lend, affecting financial stability. “So, that’s why they want to baby-step this.”

Rhodes said that the “vast majority” of UK stablecoins will not fall under the regime anyway, at least not as stated in the paper. He noted that Mastercard was only recognized as a systemically important payment system in 2021 and that non-systemic stablecoins will be regulated under the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) ruleset, “which is less restrictive.”

Still work to be done as UK opens up to crypto

Access to central bank liquidity and deposit accounts at the BOE was a welcome update for stablecoin issuers. But crypto industry representatives believe that there is still room for improvement in the central bank’s plan.

Regarding the stablecoin caps, “The systemic thresholds remain uncertain,” said Rhodes. He said it would be helpful to have clarification from His Majesty’s Treasury when an issuer has reached sufficient scale to “pose a risk to the UK economy as a whole, before they will recognize the issuer as systemic.”

Taylor also noted the difficulty of enforcing these stablecoin caps. If the government is licensing an issuer, then they’re the ones “responsible for monitoring each individual client or customer, whether wholesale, corporate or retail, as to how many stablecoins they’ve given them.”

The problem is that many people get their stablecoins on secondary markets or a “host of different sources.” People can receive stablecoins as compensation at work or on an exchange or peer-to-peer transaction. “So, the actual operational enforcement of that I question, and we’ve seen no detail in regards to that.”

Overall, “clarity and speed” will make the UK stablecoin ecosystem more competitive, said Arvin Abraham, partner at Goodwin Procter. He told Cointelegraph that regulators need to give issuers “a clean runway and predictable timelines” to navigate the approvals process.

Speed isn’t the government’s strong suit, however.

The British government has been working on crypto regulations since 2017, when it first adopted Anti-Money Laundering and Know Your Customer requirements for crypto-related businesses like exchanges. Now, eight years later, the central bank is still developing its policies based on industry feedback.

The slow pace of progress presents a problem. According to Taylor, “We’ve been consulting on a wider framework to regulate stablecoins for almost five years, and we still haven’t gotten any actual license framework in place, which is problematic for a number of reasons,” he said.

“It doesn’t help businesses that want to launch stablecoins in the UK. They don’t have a clear roadmap of how to do that,” he said, “which in turn forces them to move offshore to jurisdictions where there are other regulatory frameworks already live.”

This is for a number of reasons, Taylor explained, including consecutive changes in government, as well as a lack of “real champions in any of our key stakeholders, be that the current government, be that Treasury, be that the FCA.”

Progress on crypto regulations may be slow in the UK — slower than many in the industry would like — but for Abraham, “The Bank is being pragmatic and fair. The overriding message is that innovation is welcome, but if you want your token to function like money, you need money-grade controls.”

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