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Fresh from his Commons victory, the prime minister took to the stage on Thursday to declare he was making progress on his plan to send migrants to Rwanda, his party was “completely united” and any failure to deliver on this pledge would not be down to him, but rather a new bogeyman, peers in the House of Lords.

As he warned peers not to “frustrate the will of the people” as the Rwanda bill heads for more scrutiny in the upper chamber, I found myself wondering if the prime minister and his audience of journalists were on the same planet: while Rishi Sunak said he had won the vote, two rebel sources told me that morning that “several” letters of no confidence in the prime minister had been handed into the chair of the backbench 1922 committee overnight.

Meanwhile, a number of his own MPs – including his former home secretary Suella Braverman and immigration minister Robert Jenrick – have publicly argued that failure to get flights off the ground would be the fault of no one else but the prime minister for refusing to strengthen the bill.

Politics live: Rishi Sunak taken to task over ‘utterly bizarre’ and ‘vacuous’ Rwanda news briefing

He lost two deputy party chairmen over the legislation and saw the biggest rebellions of his premiership as 60-plus of his own MPs voted for amendments to stop individual claims and block international courts from grounding flights.

He was also, after all this infighting, polling at levels not seen since the days of Liz Truss, with the Conservatives on 20% in a YouGov poll released last night.

After all that, it might have been better to perhaps not say anything today at all.

One former cabinet minister told me shortly after watching some of the media conference that they found it all rather “odd” and would have counselled the prime minister not to amplify a policy that many think won’t work and has split his party anymore.

“The whole thing is a crazy hill to be fighting on. People now think we are a single issue party,” texted the former cabinet minister, adding in a blowing-up head emoji for good measure.

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PM defends his position amid polls

The logic surely has to be that the prime minister, having won the day, needed to set up a different enemy – the House of Lords – while cautioning that he might not win war.

Because as he tried to deflect the problems away from himself, he also used the media conference to row back on the pledge he made last November that he would get flights away as planned in spring.

Back then, on the back of the Supreme Court ruling that Rwanda was not a safe country, the prime minister told journalists he would “take all necessary steps to ensure we can remove any further blockages to us getting this policy executed and getting planes leaving as planned in the spring of [2024]”.

He went on to say “we are working extremely hard to make sure we can get a plane off as planned in the spring”.

Fast forward to January and Mr Sunak is now refusing to repeat that ambition, refusing on Thursday to say whether he expects asylum seekers to be sent from the UK to Rwanda before the next election. Now it’s “I want to see this happen as soon as practically possible… we are working as fast as we possibly can”.

When I asked him what his message is to those putting in letters of no confidence, who believe Mr Sunak is the “wrong man for the job”, the prime minister didn’t take on the question directly but rather deflected, saying: “I’m interested in sticking with the plan I set out for the British people because that plan is working.

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What next for Rwanda bill?

“It is delivering real change, and if we stick with that plan, we’ll be able to build a brighter future for everyone’s families in this country and a renewed sense of pride in our nation.”

But he can say what he likes, the public seem to have decided that he isn’t working, with his polling after 15 months at the same level seen under Ms Truss.

And as for blaming peers, it might get him the headline he’s looking for today, but what happens come the spring and summer if the flights are still not off the ground and boat crossing are on the rise? Will those rebels such as Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick blame the House of Lords, or their own prime minister for refusing to strengthen the bill?

Read more:
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Sunak challenges Lords to pass bill – what happens next?

I’m told that not one of the 45 MPs in the room of rebels discussing how to vote on Wednesday night believed the bill will work, but didn’t want to risk collapsing the government.

One rebel figure told me they thought there was a 5% chance the flights get off the ground. Mr Sunak of course is gambling that they are wrong and he can get flights away.

But much of this is not in his control, which is why making this a totemic promise of his premiership was a mistake. Because this has become a leadership issue as much as a policy one. And leadership rivals now circling, won’t hesitate to put failure firmly at his door.

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Sex offenders to be denied refugee status under plans to improve women’s safety

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Sex offenders to be denied refugee status under plans to improve women's safety

Migrants convicted of sex offences in the UK or overseas will be unable to claim asylum under government plans to change the law to improve border security.

The Home Office announcement means foreign nationals who are added to the sex offenders register will forfeit their rights to protection under the Refugee Convention.

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As part of the 1951 UN treaty, countries are allowed to refuse asylum to terrorists, war criminals and individuals convicted of a “particularly serious crime” – which is currently defined in UK law as an offence carrying a sentence of 12 months or more.

The government now plans to extend that definition to include all individuals added to the Sex Offenders’ Register, regardless of the length of sentence, in an amendment to the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, which is currently going through parliament. It’s understood they also hope to include those convicted of equivalent crimes overseas.

Those affected will still be able to appeal their removal from the UK in the courts under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA
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More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA

It is unclear how many asylum seekers will be affected, as the government has been unable to provide any projections or past data on the number of asylum seekers added to the Sex Offenders’ Register.

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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Sex offenders who pose a risk to the community should not be allowed to benefit from refugee protections in the UK.

“We are strengthening the law to ensure these appalling crimes are taken seriously.”

Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls Minister Jess Philips said: “We are determined to achieve our mission of halving violence against women and girls in a decade.

“That’s exactly why we are taking action to ensure there are robust safeguards across the system, including by clamping down on foreign criminals who commit heinous crimes like sex offences.”

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The Home Office would like voters to see this as a substantial change. But that’s hard to demonstrate without providing any indication of the scale of the problem it seeks to solve.

Clearly, the government does not want to fan the flames of resentment towards asylum seekers by implying large numbers have been committing sex crimes.

But amid rising voter frustration about the government’s grip on the issue, and under pressure from Reform – this measure is about signalling it is prepared to take tough action.

Conservatives: ‘Too little, too late’

The Conservatives claim Labour are engaged in “pre-election posturing”.

Chris Philp MP, the shadow home secretary, said: “This is too little, too late from a Labour government that has scrapped our deterrent and overseen the worst year ever for small boat crossings – with a record 10,000 people crossing this year already.

“Foreign criminals pose a danger to British citizens and must be removed, but so often this is frustrated by spurious legal claims based on human rights claims, not asylum claims.”

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Has Labour tackled migration?

The Home Office has also announced plans to introduce a 24-week target for appeal hearings (known as “first-tier tribunals”) to be held for rejected asylum seekers living in taxpayer-supported accommodation, or for foreign national offenders.

The current average wait is 50 weeks. The idea is to cut the asylum backlog and save taxpayers money – Labour have committed to end the use of asylum hotels by the end of this parliament.

It’s unclear how exactly this will be achieved, although a number of additional court days have already been announced.

The government also plans to crack down on fake immigration lawyers who advise migrants on how to lodge fraudulent asylum claims, with the Immigration Advice Authority given new powers to issue fines of up to £15,000.

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US senators press for answers on Trump’s crypto interests

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<div>US senators press for answers on Trump's crypto interests</div>

<div>US senators press for answers on Trump's crypto interests</div>

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has called on government officials to address questions related to US President Donald Trump’s memecoin and his media company.

In an April 25 letter to Jamieson Greer, acting director of the US Office of Government Ethics (OGE), Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts and California Democratic Senator Adam Schiff requested that officials address concerns about Trump’s memecoin after the president announced a dinner and White House tour for some of the individuals who held the most TRUMP tokens. The two senators requested that Greer provide information on safeguards and guidelines related to whether foreign actors and others could buy political influence with the president, potentially impacting his policy positions and federal pardons.

“President Trump’s announcement promises exclusive access to the presidency in exchange for significant investment in one of the President’s business ventures,” wrote the two senators.

“In promising such access, this proposition may implicate several federal ethics laws and constitutional prohibitions, including the federal bribery statute and emoluments clauses of the US Constitution. It also raises the troubling prospect that foreign actors are using the memecoin as a vector to buy influence with President Trump and his associates without needing to disclose their identities publicly.”

Investments, SEC, United States, Donald Trump, Corruption
April 25 letter from Sens. Warren and Schiff to OGE. Source: Sen. Schiff

The letter was sent the same day Warren reportedly expressed similar concerns about Trump’s potential conflicts of interest with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to an April 25 Reuters report, the Massachusetts senator urged SEC Chair Paul Atkins to ensure that oversight of Trump’s media company was “free from undue political interference and influence from the President and his administration.”

Related: Trump’s WLFI crypto investments aren’t paying off

Though ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, Warren does not have the authority to direct Congress’s agenda with Democrats in the minority. Two Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives have already called for Trump’s impeachment over his memecoin dinner.

Warren added:

“The American people deserve the unwavering assurance that access to the presidency is not being offered for sale to the highest bidder in exchange for the President’s own financial gain.”

At the time of publication, it was unclear who among the top TRUMP memecoin holders would attend the dinner, scheduled to be held on May 22 at Trump’s golf club in Washington, DC. Speculation and analysis of users suggested that Trump supporters, including Tron founder Justin Sun, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and others, could attend, though none had been confirmed as of April 28.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

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Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

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Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

Canada, Betting, Voting, Elections
Polymarket chances favor the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney over the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre to be the next Canadian Prime Minister. Source: Polymarket

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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