What to expect from college football in 2024: Realignment, a 12-team playoff and a Saban-less SEC
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
The minute after Michigan was presented the national championship trophy in Houston, the college football season — and its accompanying predictions — flipped to 2024.
If ever there was a Y2K year in college football, this was it — but the lights didn’t go out in NRG Stadium and the sport began its journey into unprecedented change that includes sweeping conference realignment and a 12-team playoff that will again alter how the champion is crowned.
Ready or not, here it comes.
“The change is real,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said. “You can either run from it and hide, or you can embrace it.”
From a sideline without retired Alabama coaching legend Nick Saban to an Atlantic Coast Conference that includes Pacific Coast teams, college football will look vastly different this fall — even to those immersed in it for a living. The new, expanded playoff will start before Christmas — and end on Jan. 20, 2025, which is Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
“It’s a big year,” Mid-American Conference commissioner Jon Steinbrecher said. “This is a fascinating evolution of the playoff. It’s no small thing.”
Here’s an explanation of all of the big things fans can expect to see changing this fall.
Jump to a topic:
Conference realignment
12-team CFP
CFP schedule
Other bowls
Conference title games
Life without Saban
Who governs the sport?
Who’s in what conference?
Let’s start with the basics, because even that’s nothing you’ve ever seen before.
Beginning with the 2024 season, the Big Ten will be the largest conference in the country with 18 teams, and the ACC — with the additions of SMU, Cal and Stanford — will follow with 17 teams. The SEC and Big 12 will each have 16 teams.
The Pac-12? Well, it’s down to Oregon State and Washington State, which will have a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West Conference.
The SEC will include: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt.
The Big 12 will include: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah, West Virginia.
The Big Ten will include: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, Oregon, Washington.
The ACC will include: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest.
None of them will have divisions, so the top two teams in each league will face meet in their respective conference championship games. Retiring American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco said he believes that even though more history and rivalries will disappear, the love for the sport will remain.
“People enjoy watching games,” Aresco said. “If USC is playing Ohio State, are people going to say, ‘Yeah, it’s a Big Ten game now, I have no interest.’ I don’t think so. This sport has a hold on America, moreso than any other sport.”
How do teams get into the College Football Playoff?
First, exhale — an undefeated Power 5 champion like Florida State will never be excluded again.
“The automatic conference champion was something that was important to the ACC, and I know it was important to other conferences, too,” said ACC commissioner Jim Phillips. “That’s reassuring to everybody.”
The 11 presidents and chancellors who have the ultimate authority over the playoff are expected to soon approve a model that rewards the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams. That places a renewed emphasis on the conference championship games, and it also guarantees a spot in the 12-team field for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion — a major change from the four-team system, in which the only guarantee for the top G5 champ was a New Year’s Six bowl.
“Our leagues will have a shot,” Aresco said.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top-four seeds and receive a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or “at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution.”
That means any team that doesn’t earn the luxury of a first-round bye will have to win four straight games to win the national championship. If a team lost its conference championship game, and played in four straight playoff games, it would have played an unprecedented 17 games.
(And you thought it was hard now).
Be careful not to confuse the seeding with the selection committee’s ranking. The 13-member committee will still issue its weekly top 25, which will be used to determine the highest-ranked conference champs. That means, though, that if Georgia wins the SEC and is ranked No. 1 by the selection committee, and Alabama loses that game and is No. 3 in the CFP ranking — or even No. 2! — the Tide will be seeded No. 5 behind three other conference champs and Georgia.
(Read that again, please).
Historically, the selection committee releases six rankings, which would likely begin this year on Nov. 5, but that is expected to be determined in April at the annual CFP spring meeting. As of now, there is no minimum ranking requirement for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Any independent like Notre Dame cannot earn a first-round bye because it cannot win a conference title. That also applies to Washington State and Oregon State, which have a temporary scheduling arrangement with the Mountain West and can compete for the national championship, but aren’t eligible to win the MWC and don’t constitute a league of their own, per NCAA and CFP rules.
With the sheer number of Big Ten and SEC teams, there’s a possibility that those leagues could fill the bulk of the field.
“We’ve got great depth,” Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said. “I expect us to have very strong representation in the playoff. I think our coaches expect it, our ADs expect it, our fans expect it. We’re good, we’re deep, and that’s the best advantage.”
Steinbrecher said, “if they earn it, they earn it.”
“I’m a big believer you’re going to earn your way into this thing,” he said. “I’m not quite convinced that it will be totally that [an SEC-Big Ten majority], but we’ll see how it plays out.”
When are the CFP games?
First round (on-campus)
Friday, Dec. 20, 2024: One game (evening)
Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024: Three games (early afternoon, late afternoon and evening)
Quarterfinals
Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (evening)
Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (early afternoon), Rose Bowl Game (late afternoon) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (evening)
Semifinals
Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025: Capital One Orange Bowl (evening)
Friday, Jan. 10, 2025: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (evening)
CFP National Championship game
Monday, Jan. 20, 2025: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
What will happen to the rest of the bowls?
Traditionally, bowl season has started the second Saturday after the conference title games, which will now also be when the playoff starts (see above). Nick Carparelli, executive director of Bowl Season, said the organization will meet with the conference commissioners and ESPN in late January to consider starting earlier.
“That gives an opportunity for some teams who just qualified for bowl games who are excited about the opportunity to play the game sooner, and then to be able to get on with their recruiting,” Carparelli said. “And maybe some of these guys who are entering the transfer portal will play that last game because they don’t have to wait around too long and then go on and do what’s best for them after that.”
The NCAA’s football competition committee meets late February, but a final decision is unlikely to be approved until later in the spring.
The current December schedule for college football is crammed. The transfer window opened on Dec. 4 — the day after the committee announced the playoff teams, and two days after the conference title games. Players were allowed to transfer through Jan. 2 — the day after the CFP semifinals. Sandwiched between all of that was the Dec. 20 early signing day.
“The problem is not the bowls or the bowl system,” Carparelli said. “The problem is the circumstances that we’ve allowed to be created around it.”
Incoming freshmen were watching the transfer portal, and transfers were watching the signing classes. Fans were watching bowl games without some of their star players.
“I think the recruiting calendar in December has to change,” Sankey said. “That’s not something new for me to say. We’re prepared to address it. We’ll spend time as a league and resend ideas again. The early signing date cannot remain where it is. That’s not fair to the highest-level teams. Where the other 110 teams in the bowl subdivision care or FCS, they have to be attentive that this end of football drives the lot. The notion that it’s an awkward timing is reality.”
The New Year’s Six bowls, which are the Cotton, Fiesta, Peach, Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls, will remain a part of the CFP in 2024 and 2025, but the commissioners haven’t said publicly yet how they will figure into the rotation in the next contract.
“There’s so much that’s still going to be discussed, and that’s a topic that still needs to be vetted out,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said, “but from my perspective there’s a great history with the New Year’s Six. In some respects they credentialize those games because there’s a lot of awareness around them. There will be more conversation, but I’m optimistic those games will be a part of the future.”
Phillips has been outspoken about the bowl games outside of the New Year’s Six, and said the commissioners continue to talk about how to keep the bowl season healthy, while also wondering if more than 40 bowls is sustainable.
“Likely not,” Phillips said.
“I just feel that if we don’t pay close attention to that, that will do college football harm,” he said. “There has always been an awful lot of good football teams at the end of the year that want a chance to continue to play, and this new playoff will whet the appetite of many, but it will only kind of quench the thirst of 12. … There’ll be other good teams that have been left out, so we have to try to learn about what we’ve seen through the CFP current model of four, where now we have the transfer portal, opt-outs at a higher rate than before. There’s always been medical reasons why student-athletes haven’t played as well. That’s a piece of this we have to use as part of the decision-making in what we do with the rest of the bowl system.”
To become bowl eligible a school must have a minimum of six wins with a winning percentage of .500. In 2023, the bowls were only one team short, and 5-7 Minnesota filled in. In 2022, Rice was the only team that filled in, and in 2021, there was one team too many from COVID-10 lingering effects.
“Recent historical data tells us we’re at the right number for bowls,” Carparelli said. “It’s impossible to know at the beginning of the season how many bowl-eligible teams you’ll have at the end, but with the information we have, we’re right at the right number.”
Carparelli said the postseason doesn’t have to be an “either-or” between the CFP and the rest of the bowls.
“It’s both combined,” he said. “They both play a really important role in college football.”
What’s the future of conference championship games?
Conference championship games, theoretically, should receive increased interest, given that the top five winners will earn a trip to the playoff and a first-round bye. There has been no indication from any of the commissioners that there is a desire to relinquish such a valuable property — at least not any time soon.
“We’re committed to playing a championship game,” the Big Ten’s Petitti said. “I think in the structure we’re talking about, there’s enough to still play for. It does mean something to win the Big Ten championship. Our fans really support the game and love it. We saw that this year. And the strength of it on a consistent basis is only going to improve with a no-division format. Now you’re matching up two really, really strong teams.”
Yormark called it “a tentpole moment” for the Big 12.
“Will that change over time? I don’t know,” he said. “I love our game. It creates a wonderful narrative. If you just look at this year’s champ game — highest-attended ever. Highest-gross ever, created a ton of excitement, more social media engagement than any other champ game in our history. But with the ever-changing landscape, we’ll have to see what unfolds in the future.”
What will college football look like without Nick Saban?
It won’t be the same without his news conferences, with the coach always next to his trusty Coke bottle, which is “not a crystal ball,” aight?
Not even Saban knows what Alabama will look like when the Kalen DeBoer era begins this fall, but it’s safe to say his retirement will have a trickle-down effect on the entire sport — from the coaching trees he once planted to a door that could open for other SEC teams on the brink of reaching the title game.
(Cough, cough, Lane Kiffin).
With Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference, the SEC will eliminate its divisions this fall, and teams will play eight conference games plus one required opponent from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, or “major independent.” With the 16-team league, the cutthroat competition of chasing Alabama in the now-extinct SEC West will change. That won’t necessarily make it any easier, as LSU still faces the Tide, Ole Miss — and Oklahoma. Ole Miss doesn’t play Alabama, but hosts Georgia and travels to LSU. Georgia faces Alabama during the regular season — along with Texas.
The top two teams that emerge from this slugfest will play for the SEC title.
Saban has been the face of the SEC, and while Georgia coach Kirby Smart has closed the gap on the Tide by winning two of the past three national titles, Saban set the bar by winning six of his seven titles in Tuscaloosa. Even Georgia has a long way to go before matching that dynasty, though Saban will no longer be the one preventing it in the SEC title game.
In addition to Saban’s replacement, there will also be new faces at the highest level of CFP leadership. CFP executive director Bill Hancock has announced his retirement and will be succeeded by Lt. Gen. Richard M. Clark, who is currently the superintendent of the Air Force Academy.
In the AAC, Aresco is retiring, and the conference is in the midst of a search for his replacement.
Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick has also announced his retirement, and will be replaced by NBC Sports Group chairman and Notre Dame alum Pete Bevacqua. Both Aresco and Swarbrick are members of the CFP management committee.
Will the CFP ever become the governing body of the CFB?
For years, some leaders in college athletics have pushed for FBS football to operate outside of the NCAA’s governance structure. In 2020, the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics recommended an organization called the National College Football Association govern FBS football through revenue it generates from the CFP media contract.
FBS football is currently the only collegiate sport that runs its championship and all of its revenue outside of the NCAA. While there hasn’t been enough support for the sport to operate under the purview of the CFP, there are still commissioners and athletic directors who believe the CFP should have more authority moving forward.
“My hope would be it becomes more of an enterprise, like a conference or the NCAA and grow beyond just the game operations,” Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. “Right now it has big games, events, but it also has revenue distribution. I would like to see us connect rules to the game, policy around the game. The NCAA has academics, transfers, all that, but I would like to see the CFP plug into the policymaking in a more direct manner because right now it exists on the periphery, but it has all the right people in the room.”
Petitti said the governance of the sport isn’t his priority right now.
“Right now I would say the priority is getting the 12-team playoff right,” Petitti said. “That’s the focus. You’re asking it to do a lot more. I know it’s been talked about a lot, but my focus in terms of how I try to contribute in the room and how to represent the Big Ten is to make sure we do that right first.”
Phillips, who has been the only Power 5 commissioner to serve on both the NCAA Constitution and Transformation committees (2022), said there has been some benefit to having the CFP operate outside of the NCAA. Phillips said “it’s worked so far,” but the commissioners will continue to assess if it should remain unchanged.
“What does it do to other sports?” said Phillips, who will become the president of the Collegiate Commissioners Association this summer. “What does it say to other sports, to the other student-athletes and coaches who are in those sports to have one stand alone? I’m not saying positive or negative, but all of it has to be considered, and we’ll continue to do that.”
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Adam Rittenberg
AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY, Jackson Arnold will hop off a bus and walk into Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
He will know his way around but won’t take the familiar route toward the home locker room. Nor will he put on the crimson and white Oklahoma jersey. Instead, he will suit up for Auburn and begin final preparations for a game brimming with emotion and nostalgia.
Arnold, ESPN’s No. 2 recruit in the 2023 class, was supposed to be the next great quarterback at Oklahoma, which has produced three Heisman Trophy winners, a Heisman runner-up and a series of all-league and All-America selections since 2015. But a rough 2024 season led him and the Sooners to part ways. He entered the transfer portal and found a new team. And, like many transfers, Arnold will now line up against his former team.
“He’s very mature and he doesn’t give any credit to any noise or talk,” Auburn coach Hugh Freeze said. “He’s a pro. We all understand people might cheer for him, boo him, whatever it is. I think he’s mentally strong.”
Arnold’s situation has become a weekly occurrence around college football, even in the young 2025 season. Last week, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah returned to New Orleans and faced Tulane, the team he helped to a 9-2 start last season before landing an NIL deal with the Blue Devils that could pay him $8 million over two seasons.
When Kansas State and Arizona met last Friday in Tucson, safety Gunner Maldonado and wide receiver Tre Spivey were suiting up for different sets of Wildcats. Maldonado is in his first season at Kansas State after four with Arizona, and Spivey is in his first with Arizona after two with Kansas State.
Earl Little Jr. transferred from Alabama after the 2023 season, slogged through a 2-10 campaign with Florida State last fall and then opened this season on Aug. 30 against his former team, recording a team-high nine tackles as the Seminoles stunned the Crimson Tide.
Transfer reunions are now baked into this era of college football, requiring a delicate yet intentional approach from all those involved as they try to not only get through the games but come out with wins.
“This is not new,” Duke coach Manny Diaz told ESPN before the Tulane game. “There have been guys through the years we’ve had that have faced a former team, and certainly in pro sports, this happens all the time. If you deny the emotional part, then you know you’re doing yourself a disservice, but once you recognize that the emotions are what they are, then it’s still just a game.”
WHEN A TRANSFER reunion looms, coaches and players are constantly taking the emotional temperature. Florida State’s Little had to hear about the Alabama game throughout the offseason.
“I had people coming for my neck every day, talking about the big game or what I was going to do and everything, but I didn’t listen to the outside noise,” he said.
Arnold, who didn’t meet with reporters this week, had a similar response when asked about Oklahoma following Auburn’s win against South Alabama. He said he’s not on social media, joking that “there’s no noise for me.”
The emotional component is heightened for these games and cannot be ignored. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian kept an eye on defensive lineman Hero Kanu in the leadup to the season opener at Ohio State, the team Kanu played for in 2024.
“I try to get a pretty good sense of the feel for our players throughout the summer, throughout fall camp,” Sarkisian said. “Then, I try to monitor the player that [game] week, and if I feel like they’re getting out of character, I address it. If I feel like they’re practicing well, they’re being themselves, I don’t address it. Sometimes you can make something out of nothing when you start to do things like that.
“With Hero, I thought he was in a great place going into the game, and I thought he played well in the game. I never addressed it with him one time.”
Freeze didn’t play college football, but he has been through an experience similar to what Arnold will go through this week. As Liberty‘s coach in 2021, he returned to Ole Miss, where he coached from 2012 until being fired shortly before the 2017 season.
“That whole week, it was a challenge for me not to think about some of that,” Freeze said. “I know the same will be true for Jackson. … My advice to him is to just keep the focus on our team. That was my advice to myself. It’s not about you. It’s not about me. It’s about our team preparing to go in to play.”
Little focused on keeping “a calm mind” when he arrived at Doak Campbell Stadium for the opener against Alabama. When Florida State’s defensive backs began warmups, he ran into some former Alabama teammates and others from the program whom he knew from his time there.
They briefly exchanged greetings.
“No bad blood at all, it was all good vibes,” Little said.
Weeks after Stanford fired coach Troy Taylor, wide receiver Tiger Bachmeier and his younger brother, Bear, an incoming freshman quarterback, entered the transfer portal. As BYU came into focus as their likely destination, the Bachmeier brothers immediately noticed that the team would be hosting Stanford in Week 2.
As soon as BYU finished its season-opening win against Portland State, Tiger Bachmeier sensed what was coming.
“You start to get a bit of anxiousness, not nervousness or nastiness,” he said. “You can’t really explain it. There’s something eerie and weird about the feeling.”
Although Bear Bachmeier would end up starting for BYU, he had been at Stanford for only a few months. Tiger, meanwhile, had started 13 games for the Cardinal and earned his computer science degree there in 2½ years.
“You build lasting relationships, and then when you pull the plug on that, it’s definitely an emotional thing,” Tiger Bachmeier said. “It was more detached for Bear.”
Arizona coach Brent Brennan said it’s important to recognize that transfers have a range of experiences with their former teams and those they left behind. When reunion games come around, his message is the same: Regardless of how things went before, the focus must remain on the current team and its mission.
Like other coaches, Brennan doesn’t amplify the situation, but he doesn’t ignore it, either.
“It might be a simple one-off conversation at the beginning of the week and then a reminder somewhere late in the week,” Brennan said. “You’re trying to keep them locked into the team and what the team needs from them on that day, and just trying to help them navigate any of the emotions they might have, and not letting that become either a distraction for your team or detrimental to their own play.”
COACHES ARE TASKED with getting every player ready to perform on game days. They’re also trying to gain every advantage possible, including potential intel on the opponent.
“I would say there probably is [information gathering],” Florida coach Billy Napier said, while adding, “not that you would talk about it [publicly].”
Last week, Arkansas faced an Ole Miss team that added three Razorbacks transfers in the offseason: offensive lineman Patrick Kutas, cornerback Jaylon Braxton and tight end Luke Hasz. Offensive lineman Kavion Broussard, meanwhile, came to Arkansas from Ole Miss and has seen action this season.
The transactions could have impacted both teams in their preparation, especially since Arkansas and Ole Miss have the same head coaches and primary coordinators from 2024.
“I’m sure that there’s conversations going on about calls and teaching and how we did things here, maybe,” Arkansas coach Sam Pittman said before the team’s 41-35 loss at Ole Miss. “… It’s not just Ole Miss, it’s anybody that transfers, where they could possibly help their team win a game. So we certainly understand that and are aware of that.”
When coaches get information, they also must assess how much, if at all, to adjust their plans.
“There’s a fine line in there, and sometimes you can start to outsmart yourself,” Sarkisian said. “Every team you play knows that they have a player that is a former player on your team. And then, OK, what do we need to change? What do we need to adjust? Sometimes you can get that information and then a coach can outsmart you. … I just think you have to be careful when it comes to trying to get information for former players from a school, assuming they know that player and they can outfox us.”
How Oklahoma coach Brent Venables defends Arnold will be a major subplot to Saturday’s game. On Tuesday, Venables applauded Arnold’s early success with Auburn after a 2024 season in which he eclipsed 200 passing yards just once.
Venables said he sees “the same guy … with a healthy football team around him,” referring to the surge of injuries that hit Oklahoma’s wide receiver group and other areas of the offense last fall. The coach also downplayed the potential advantage he will have in scheming against his former quarterback.
“Guys can change from one year to the next,” Venables said. “There’s a lot that you don’t know, because you’re not with them for the last eight months. … Jackson’s one of the most talented players in all of college football. He’s can throw, he’s got a big arm, he can run, he’s got a great capacity intellectually and great leadership skills, he’s been a winner his whole life. So I don’t think there’s any kind of advantage whatsoever.
“He saw our defense every single day in practice, so there’s going to be a familiarity to that.”
4:04
Auburn’s path to upset Oklahoma hinges on the run game
SEC Now’s Gene Chizik and Matt Stinchcomb explain why the No. 22 Tigers’ ground attack is the key to knocking off the No. 11 Sooners.
BEFORE BYU HOSTED Stanford, Tiger Bachmeier’s Cougars teammates quizzed him about some of Stanford’s players. Bachmeier, who describes himself as “pretty positive on everyone,” tried to highlight their best qualities.
“I enjoyed telling funny stories about the guys and the memories, character traits versus how he sets blocks,” Bachmeier said. “I don’t know if that’s what they were looking for. Some of those guys are my best friends.”
After leaving for BYU in the spring, Bachmeier stayed in contact with several Stanford players. The correspondence dwindled during training camp. When game week arrived, they simply wished each other good luck and asked if they should take pictures before or after the game.
One Stanford player suggested a pregame prayer. Before a game last year at Stanford Stadium, Bachmeier had met his brother Hank, a quarterback at Wake Forest, in the tunnel and they prayed together. But the group prayer was harder to coordinate.
“That was a really, really weird atmosphere during pregame because you’re trying to stay focused and you see your friends who you haven’t seen for five months,” Tiger Bachmeier said. “You want to say, ‘What’s up?'”
After the game, Bachmeier got a chance to see wide receiver Myles Libman, safety Charlie Eckhardt and offensive lineman Fisher Anderson — and take pictures.
“We all kind of ran up to each other and gave each other hugs for five straight minutes,” Bachmeier said. “That’s what it’s all about.”
Little was hoping to see his Alabama friends after the opener, but Florida State fans had other ideas after the Seminoles’ 31-17 win.
“The field got rushed pretty quickly, so I unfortunately couldn’t go and holler at some of my old teammates,” Little said. “All the fans were jumping on me. I couldn’t say anything to those guys.”
He reached out to a few, but “they were mad at me,” Little joked, adding that the Alabama players did offer their congratulations.
“We missed each other,” Little said. “When it was time to step on the football field, it’s war. But at the end of the day, I’m still cool with those guys and have much respect for them.”
Arnold undoubtedly will be tracked before, during and after Saturday’s game, as many want to see how he interacts with Venables and others from his time at Oklahoma. But players and coaches who have been through transfer reunions say the trickiest part is the hours and minutes before kickoff.
“There’s no one way that it goes down,” Diaz said. “What I’ve found, more than anything is, once the game begins, the game becomes about the game, and everybody just sort of moves on.”
It’s official. Three teams have clinched playoff spots, meaning there are nine left to fill with 11 days remaining in the 2025 regular season.
For the second consecutive year, the Brewers clinched the season’s first postseason spot. They were followed by the Phillies, who first clinched a berth and won the National League East title for the second straight year the following night, and then the Cubs.
Now, we wait to see who’s next.
It’s just a matter of time before additional clubs lock up berths — such as the Blue Jays and Dodgers — but others still have a lot to play for. In the past week, we’ve seen the Mariners go on a run that has vaulted them back into first place in the division, while the Mets suffered a losing streak that almost dropped them out of the playoff picture entirely.
Some of these playoff races will go down to the final days of the season. Get ready for some exciting baseball!
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 24 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 93-59
Previous ranking: 1
The Brewers were the first team to clinch a postseason slot this season, but they have no time to rest on their laurels. Topping the remaining to-do list is the quest to hold off the Phillies for the NL’s top seed, which could be key if the teams meet in the NLCS given how dominant they’ve both been at home. If Milwaukee does that, it’ll also tick off its other major remaining items: breaking the franchise mark for wins in a season (96, set in 2011 and tied in 2018) and clinching the NL Central title over the pesky Cubs. — Doolittle
Record: 91-62
Previous ranking: 2
The Phillies clinched their second straight NL East title with a 10-inning win at Dodger Stadium on Monday. Kyle Schwarber hit his 53rd home run and Harrison Bader stole third base in the 10th, setting up the go-ahead sacrifice fly. That led to a raucous postgame celebration. Bryce Harper drank apple juice while his teammates had some stronger refreshments. Then they rallied for another dramatic win on Tuesday as backup catcher Rafael Marchan hit a two-out, three-run home run in the ninth following an intentional walk to Bryson Stott. The Phillies look ready for October. — Schoenfield
Record: 89-63
Previous ranking: 5
Toronto’s chances of winning the American League East stand at an overwhelming 95.6%, per FanGraphs, leaving manager John Schneider to deliberate over how to arrange his playoff rotation. Kevin Gausman seems to be the most logical choice to start in Game 1, and after that, Schneider has a wealth of options: Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Eric Lauer and now rookie Trey Yesavage, who was dominant in his MLB debut on Monday. Other teams should be jealous of the Jays’ depth. — Olney
Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 3
It’s easy to focus on what Shohei Ohtani is doing in the regular season and what role he might fill in the playoffs. But the Dodgers have the serious business of winning the NL West again to still take care of. The stakes are huge. Barring collapses elsewhere in the circuit, the winner of the West is going to be a 3-seed and the second-place team is going to be No. 5. Thus the Dodgers will either get to host the struggling Mets (probably), or they’ll find themselves playing the first round at Wrigley Field against a hungry Cubs team that has been playing well. — Doolittle
Record: 88-64
Previous ranking: 7
The Cubs aren’t out of the NL Central race just yet, but even if that pursuit comes up short, they are in solid position to be the league’s top wild card — and secured a playoff berth Wednesday with a win over Pittsburgh. The offense has been ticking up a little over the past couple of weeks, though the improvement hasn’t included first-half standout Pete Crow-Armstrong. He has been better than he was in August, but given his .446 OPS that month, the bar was low. Overall, his second-half OPS sits at .625. When the Cubs were roiling the scoreboard earlier this season, it was PCA leading the charge. North Siders would feel a lot better about the coming postseason if he is able to heat up over the last few days of the season. — Doolittle
Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 4
The Tigers’ rotation struggles behind Tarik Skubal have been a little surprising, given the veterans on the roster. But that doesn’t mean manager A.J. Hinch will be without weapons in the playoffs. “You know how A.J. is — he’s going to mix and match from game to game,” said one evaluator. And the Tigers have developed or acquired a lot of bullpen options, including Troy Melton, Jose Urquidy (who pitched 1⅓ innings Sunday) and, they hope, Kyle Finnegan and Paul Sewald, who are working their way back from injury and are expected back soon. — Olney
Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 6
Jose Caballero had started six consecutive games at shortstop for the Yankees before Anthony Volpe started Tuesday’s game, notching two hits. It appears there is effectively an open competition at the position: Whoever plays better will play. With Volpe eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and with prospect George Lombard climbing (and thriving) through the farm system, it’s unclear who the Yankees’ shortstop will be in 2026. — Olney
Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 12
You may have heard that Cal Raleigh is having quite the season. He hit his 55th and 56th home runs in the same game Tuesday, passing Mickey Mantle for the most home runs in a season by a switch-hitter and tying Ken Griffey Jr.’s club record with No. 56. Suddenly, Aaron Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs is back in play if Raleigh can mount a furious finish.
Oh, and the win in Kansas City, which has been a house of horrors for Seattle in recent seasons, was also the Mariners’ 10th in a row. Dominic Canzone went 5-for-5 with three home runs in the same game, becoming the fourth player in 2025 to reach those totals and just the 45th player to do it in the majors since 1901. (No player has done it twice.) The only other Mariner to do it was Mickey Brantley in 1987. (Mike Cameron didn’t have five hits in his four-homer game.) — Schoenfield
Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 9
Will the Padres’ vaunted bullpen hold up over the stretch run and into the playoffs? Their rotation has been hit or miss for a month now, which only increases the load for a stacked bullpen fortified by the trade deadline acquisition of Mason Miller. Miller has been phenomenal as a Padre and it’s a good thing, since Jason Adam went down with an injury, Jeremiah Estrada has had a rough month in the gopher ball department and Adrian Morejon has struggled in September. Can the unit that so many viewed as the Padres’ October trump card regain its menace? — Doolittle
Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 8
When the Red Sox took the first three games of a four-game series against the Yankees in late August, New York manager Aaron Boone was asked how Boston had improved during the season. “Roman Anthony is pretty good,” he replied, noting the difference the lefty-hitting rookie made. Since Anthony has been out of the lineup with an oblique injury, Boston is now feeling his absence in a significant way. In 35 games before he got hurt, he had a .326 average, and the Red Sox were 22-13. Since his injury, the Red Sox have gone 5-7, averaging less than 4.0 runs per game. — Olney
Record: 84-69
Previous ranking: 10
Just when you thought the injury list couldn’t get any longer for the Astros, Yordan Alvarez sprained his ankle while scoring a run in Monday’s win over the Rangers and will miss significant time. Alvarez had returned three weeks ago after missing 100 games with a broken bone in his hand. Rookie Zach Cole, playing just his fourth MLB game, replaced Alvarez in the lineup and hit the go-ahead home run, then added an RBI single. The Astros beat the Rangers again Tuesday as they held on for a 6-5 win after leading 6-0. Houston’s crucial week of AL West action will continue when the Mariners come to town for the battle for first place. — Schoenfield
Record: 79-74
Previous ranking: 13
The Rangers got to within two games of first place in the division after winning the first two games against the Mets over the weekend to extend their winning streak to six in a row. It looked like the seventh consecutive win was in reach after the Rangers scored twice to force extra innings in Sunday’s game, but they couldn’t score in the top of the 10th and rookie Luis Curvelo served up the walk-off home run to Pete Alonso. Two losses to the Astros followed and the Rangers fell behind Cleveland in the wild-card standings. They might have to go 6-0 on this upcoming homestand against the Marlins and Twins to even have a chance at the postseason. — Schoenfield
Record: 78-74
Previous ranking: 11
The wild, topsy-turvy, frustrating, unpredictable year continues for the Mets as they desperately try to hang on to the final wild card. They lost eight in a row before Pete Alonso perhaps rescued the season with his 10th-inning walk-off home run to beat the Rangers on Sunday. An eight-run outburst against Padres starter Michael King followed in New York’s next game. If the Mets are to hang on, the rookie starting pitcher trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat will play a huge role. McLean continues to take over as the rotation ace while Sproat’s second career start was a beauty — six scoreless innings against the Rangers. — Schoenfield
Record: 80-71
Previous ranking: 15
You really can’t apply logic to what’s going on with the Guardians these days, but here’s what’s left on the table for them as they try to press Boston for the last wild-card berth in the AL: four games in a weekend series in Minnesota, including a doubleheader Saturday, followed by six home games next week against the Tigers and Rangers. Keep in mind that Detroit is likely to be focused on preparing its rotation for the postseason, so Cleveland won’t see a full dose of Tarik Skubal, in all likelihood. — Olney
Record: 77-76
Previous ranking: 19
Arizona’s playoff odds dropped precariously close to zero near the end of August. Given the Diamondbacks’ deadline-related activity, which included trading a corner infield combo (Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez) who combined for 47 homers and 146 RBIs before being dealt, that was no surprise. What’s happened since is Arizona has climbed back to the outer perimeter of the wild-card race. How? The sagging Mets, a red-hot offense and the amazing Geraldo Perdomo, for whom you can make a solid case as the NL’s No. 2 pick on the MVP ballot behind Shohei Ohtani. — Doolittle
Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 14
A tough series at Arizona probably sapped the Giants’ second-wind playoff chase, though all is not yet technically lost. But even if the postseason is out, Giants fans can focus on powerhouse Bryce Eldridge, summoned in mid-September for his big league debut. Eldridge began the season at Double-A and later moved up to Triple-A, where his results were a mixed bag. But the Giants had a need at first base and so took a chance that Eldridge — listed at 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds — is ready to make some McCovey Cove splashes at age 20. — Doolittle
Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 17
For now, Reds fans can continue to fixate on the wild-card standings. That’s more to the largesse of the Mets — who stubbornly refuse to put a hammerlock on the NL’s 6-seed — than anything Cincinnati has done. But the standings are what they are, and if the Reds catch fire, they might yet play some October baseball in Terry Francona’s first season managing the club. Their remaining schedule is tough, though: four home games against the Cubs, a possible breather against Pittsburgh, then three games in Milwaukee, owner of baseball’s best record. — Doolittle
Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 16
Though their chances of making the playoffs are all but zero, the Royals are still playing meaningful baseball, which is surprising given the volume of injuries they have sustained with their rotation this year. But here they are. Meanwhile, Salvador Perez has reached a couple of major benchmarks, mashing his 300th career homer (he’s now at 302) and notching his 1,000th career RBI (now 1,008). As former teammate Eric Hosmer wrote on Twitter: “HOFer on and off [the field]. If you disagree meet me in the octagon.” — Olney
Record: 74-78
Previous ranking: 18
Barring a binge of wins down the stretch, the Rays are not going to reach the playoffs this year, but they have a superstar in the making in third baseman Junior Caminero, who will likely get some top-10 MVP votes. Since the All-Star break, Caminero has clubbed 21 homers with 48 RBIs and an 0.919 OPS in 55 games. — Olney
Record: 74-79
Previous ranking: 20
To be frank, the Cardinals haven’t given their fans many reasons to remain engaged until the end of the season. Their playoff chances are spent and, as they play out the string, the September call-ups don’t involve elite prospects. Maybe the focus will be on the rumor mill with an eye toward what will happen when this ho-hum campaign finally draws to a close. We know that baseball operations chief John Mozeliak will be handing the baton to Chaim Bloom. What other changes may be in store? — Doolittle
Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 23
What more can Nick Kurtz do in his rookie season? How about blasting a titanic 493-foot grand slam Saturday that soared over the batter’s eye in center field at Sutter Health Park. It was the longest home run in the majors this season, the longest by an A’s hitter in the Statcast era (since 2015) and the longest grand slam in the Statcast era. Kurtz has slowed down a bit in September, but his OPS continues to hover just above 1.000, trailing only Aaron Judge and neck and neck with Shohei Ohtani. — Schoenfield
Record: 72-80
Previous ranking: 21
Baltimore was eliminated from playoff contention Tuesday, a quiet ending to a season that began with such lofty expectations, following seasons of 101 and 91 wins in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The Orioles’ greatest challenge this winter will be to build a pitching staff behind Trevor Rogers with the likes of Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and perhaps Grayson Rodriguez. They have a number of arbitration-eligible players, but not a single starter or reliever under contract for 2026, 2027 or beyond. Money talks. — Olney
Record: 70-83
Previous ranking: 22
Matt Olson homered in four straight games and has been red-hot in September, hitting well over .300 with an OPS over 1.200. He quietly has had a terrific season, leading the NL in doubles (tied with Freddie Freeman), and he has a chance to get to both 100 runs and 100 RBIs for the third time in his career. His 6.2 WAR is fourth among NL position players. No, it’s not 2023, when he led the NL in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage, but he has a good case as the best first baseman in the majors in 2025. — Schoenfield
Record: 72-80
Previous ranking: 24
One thing to look forward to in 2026: Sandy Alcantara has looked much more like the pitcher he was before his Tommy John surgery, with a 3.09 ERA over his past 10 starts and 2.48 over his past six. While his 5.53 season ERA is still high, his OPS allowed is 0.712, not much higher than it was in 2023 (0.693). No, those aren’t anything close to his Cy Young numbers of 2022, but hopefully he can provide a stabilizing force next season to a rotation that has struggled overall with injuries and inconsistency and ranks 28th in ERA. — Schoenfield
Record: 66-86
Previous ranking: 26
By season’s end, Byron Buxton is likely to surpass career highs in plate appearances, hits, home runs and RBIs, among other categories. For years, he has been viewed through the prism of potential — what he might accomplish if not for the many injuries he has incurred in his career. Buxton has mostly stayed on the field this year and has likely set himself up for some top-10 votes on the AL MVP ballot. — Olney
Record: 69-83
Previous ranking: 25
The Angels’ woes continue as Seattle’s four-game sweep put them into last place behind the A’s. While they won’t reach last year’s franchise record 99 losses, they’ve locked in a 10th straight losing season. On the bright side, Jo Adell continues to mash home runs and is up to 36 on the season, although his overall value remains just 1.5 WAR due to a low OBP and subpar defensive metrics. (It hasn’t helped that the Angels have played him regularly in center field, a position he shouldn’t be playing.) Still, it’s been a nice season for the former top prospect, who entered 2025 with a career OPS+ of 79 spread across five seasons. — Schoenfield
Record: 65-88
Previous ranking: 27
Can Paul Skenes get his ERA back under 2.00 before the end of the season? His last outing (three runs and seven hits allowed over 3⅔ innings) was his poorest of the season, raising his ERA to 2.03. Pirates manager Don Kelly said that the outing would be Skenes’ last home start, and it’s up in the air whether he’ll get one or two more turns since Kelly has been using a six-man rotation. Let’s hope it’s two because Skenes Day is really all Pirates fans have to look forward to at this point. If he gets back under 2.00, he would become just the fifth pitcher to finish with a 1-something ERA over at least 100 innings in each of his first two seasons. — Doolittle
Record: 57-96
Previous ranking: 29
It’s possible — but unlikely — that the White Sox will avoid 100 losses; they would have to win six of their final 10 games in order to make that happen. Either way, it’s been a season of laying foundational pieces, none more important than shortstop Colson Montgomery, who hit 18 homers in his first 61 games in the majors (and counting). One of the challenges for the 23-year-old lefty-hitting shortstop is going to be performing better against left-handed pitching — he’s 11-for-62 (.177) against lefties with four walks. — Olney
Record: 62-91
Previous ranking: 28
The Nationals are going to need a complete overhaul in the offseason as they inch closer to 100 losses. Even James Wood and MacKenzie Gore have struggled in the second half. With 209 strikeouts, Wood has a shot to break Mark Reynolds’ MLB record of 223 set in 2009. The rotation ERA has increased from 4.77 in the first half to 5.92 in the second as Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have seen their season ERAs creep closer to 6.00. Parker has an 8.26 ERA since the beginning of August and has allowed at least one home run in nine consecutive starts. Irvin has a 7.78 ERA since late June. They shouldn’t be in the rotation, but the Nationals don’t have any other options. — Schoenfield
Record: 41-111
Previous ranking: 30
What should Rockies fans watch the rest of the way? The one-word answer: Broncos. But that’s too easy. So here’s this: One thing that is remarkable about this team is that it has drawn nearly 30,000 fans per game this season. That works out to around 55,000 per win in the overall standings. During their first two seasons in MLB, playing at Mile High Stadium, the expansion Rockies drew around 63,000 fans per win. If the Rockies can lose out while drawing an average of 45,000 fans during their remaining home games, they can just eke over the 60,000 fans-per-win mark for the first time since those expansion years. Then we can all rejoice. — Doolittle
A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers gunning for the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have also locked up their division title, and the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays are pretty much playoff locks with leads in their divisions, as well.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Saturday with a Mets’ loss to Texas.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies clinched a spot in October on Sunday with the Giants’ loss to the Dodgers. On Monday with a win over the Dodgers, they clinched the NL East title for the second straight year.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Wednesday with a win over the Pirates. It’s their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers have the chance to clinch their playoff spots this week. The Tigers, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres all have at least a 99% chance of making the postseason, as well.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Red Sox at (3) Astros, (5) Mariners at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Red Sox/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Mariners/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are attempting to separate themselves from each other in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians remain within striking distance for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets clinging to a lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot, and there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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