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Warfare is a brutal and unforgiving undertaking. 

However, the primary responsibility of any government is the protection of its people and its national interests, so military capability is a cornerstone of national capability.

But, military forces provide options and are a means to an end – not an end in itself – and when all other diplomatic and political options have been exhausted, the military create the security conditions in which political objectives can be realised.

Middle East crisis latest: US destroys Houthi anti-ship missiles

However, without clear political direction, the carnage and devastation that military forces incur lacks purpose. The consequences, as are flowing from Israel’s continued ground assault of Gaza, are profound.

On that fateful day – 7 October 2023 – when Hamas forces killed over 1,200 Israelis and took 240 hostages, the US and UK resolutely supported Israel’s right to self-defence.

The resulting Israeli military response was immediate and intensive, starting with aerial bombardments followed by a continuing ground offensive.

More on Hamas

With Palestinian deaths now exceeding 24,000 and over 60,000 injuries, according to Gaza’s health ministry – two-thirds of those believed to be children – the Israel Defence Forces claims that its military response seeks to defeat Hamas and ensure the long-term security of Israel.

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US and UK strikes on Yemen explained

However, despite most of the international community believing that the only long-term solution for regional stability is a two-state solution, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now made clear that “Israel must have security control over all the territory west of the Jordan”. In essence, a one-state solution with Israel in control.

It remains unclear how such an arrangement would work in practice without subjugation of the Palestinian people. And that does not appear to be the foundations of a lasting peace.

Israel expects its military action to continue for months to come, but where is the political strategy to underpin it?

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Netanyahu on ‘any future arrangement’

Political ambiguity is not unique to Israel. The UK and US governments are also struggling to maintain a coherent response to the crisis in Gaza.

Hamas is no match militarily for the IDF, and, although the “Gaza Metro” – the labyrinth of Hamas tunnels underneath Gaza – will slow IDF progress, given time the IDF will prevail.

This is why the US vetoed the recent UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate end to hostilities, ostensibly to allow time for Israel to achieve its objectives.

Read more:
The deep roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Could Hezbollah-Israel clashes lead to a wider war?
How did this war happen?

But in the same way the US and the UK support Israel, so Iran supports Hamas. By supporting the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea merchant shipping, Iran is increasing pressure on the US to stop the war in Gaza.

This is an inconvenient truth for the US and UK governments.

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Yemenis vow ‘earth-shattering’ retaliation

Indeed, the UK prime minister said the US/UK strikes on Houthi military capability were “completely unrelated” to the Israel-Gaza conflict, rather “a direct response to the Houthis’ attacks on international shipping” and that “we shouldn’t fall for their malign narrative”.

Yet hours later Lord Cameron met Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Wednesday at the World Economic Forum where the Iranian position was made clear: stop the war in Gaza and the Houthi attacks will cease.

Directing UK military forces to attack Houthi targets is a serious escalation – the use of military force to achieve a political objective.

The stated UK political “end-state” is to ensure freedom of passage for maritime vessels in the Red Sea, but the only way to achieve that objective is to tackle the cause, not the symptom.

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Biden: Yemen airstrikes ‘not stopping Houthis’

Although some form of military action against the Houthis was probably inevitable, it was also unlikely to “solve the problem”.

Indeed, the continued Houthi assaults bear testament to the fact that military action is unlikely to stop the attacks.

It seems very unlikely that the West could countenance a one-state, Israel-led, solution to the Gaza war, yet by providing unequivocal political support to Israel, and its intended political ambitions, the West has found itself embroiled in military action and a widening regional conflict.

And one that, in the case of the Houthis, most military experts predict is unwinnable.

Where is the grand-strategic political leadership? A solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not be achievable by the main protagonists – the scars run too deep for compromise.

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Analysis of Houthi attack on US-owned ship

However, unless international political leadership engages to create the foundations for a lasting two-state solution, the West risks being an enabler for Israel to impose its own ambitions, which will almost certainly prove untenable in the long term.

Meanwhile, the West is now part of a wider regional confrontation without clear political objectives beyond deterring the Houthis, which appears at best a naive ambition.

Where is the international diplomacy and political gravitas for which the UK was once famous? The instrument of last resort has now been unleashed, but to what end?

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Overnight attacks in Russia and Ukraine as Zelenskyy eyes talks with Trump over peace plan

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Overnight attacks in Russia and Ukraine as Zelenskyy eyes talks with Trump over peace plan

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are set to hold talks over the Ukraine peace plan.

US and Ukrainian officials have held discussions in Geneva about a controversial 28-point proposal drawn up by America and Russia, which has since been countered by an amended deal drawn up by Kyiv’s European allies.

The White House said there were still a “couple of points of disagreement” as of Monday night, but spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said there was a “sense of urgency” to strike an agreement.

“The president wants to see this deal come together, and to see this war end,” she added.

Mr Zelenskyy echoed that message, saying “there is still work for all of us to do to finalise the document”.

“We must do everything with dignity,” he said in his nightly video address, adding: “The sensitive issues, the most delicate points, I will discuss with President Trump.”

Karoline Leavitt speaks with reporters at the White House. Pic: AP
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Karoline Leavitt speaks with reporters at the White House. Pic: AP

It comes after Mr Trump, who had accused Ukraine of not being grateful enough for US military support while the Geneva talks were under way, suggested the process could be moving in the right direction.

He had earlier given Kyiv until Thursday to agree to the plan, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed the deadline, saying officials could keep negotiating.

Moscow, however, has already signalled its opposition to the European version of the peace plan.

It would halt fighting at present front lines, leaving discussions of territory for later, and also include a NATO-style US security guarantee for Ukraine.

Read more:
Trump’s 28-point peace plan in full…
…and Europe’s 28-point counterproposal

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Russian drones devastate Kharkiv

The talks in Geneva, Switzerland, had begun with Mr Rubio denying the original plan was written by Russia.

It appeared to include a number of longstanding Kremlin demands that have proved impossible for Kyiv, including sacrificing territory Russian forces have not even seized since the war began.

Ms Leavitt has also insisted the US is not favouring the Russians.

Ukrainian troops fire near the frontline town of Pokrovsk. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Ukrainian troops fire near the frontline town of Pokrovsk. Pic: Reuters

Starmer to lead talks of Ukraine’s allies

Ukraine’s allies in the so-called “coalition of the willing” will hold a virtual meeting today, chaired by Sir Keir Starmer.

The British prime minister said the alliance was focused on achieving a “just and lasting peace”.

It “matters for all of us, because the conflict in Ukraine has had a direct impact here in the UK”, he added.

Russia and Ukraine report overnight attacks

The talks will begin hours after the governor of Russia’s Rostov region reported three people had been killed and 10 more injured in a Ukrainian attack overnight.

The Russian defence ministry said 249 Ukrainian drones were downed over Russian regions in total.

Meanwhile, Russian drone strikes in Kyiv left at least two dead and triggered fires on residential buildings – forcing evacuations, and leaving several people injured.

Drone strikes rocked Kyiv in the early hours of Tuesday. Pic: Ukrainian emergency services/Telegram
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Drone strikes rocked Kyiv in the early hours of Tuesday. Pic: Ukrainian emergency services/Telegram

The war was also a topic of discussion in a call between Mr Trump and China’s Xi Jinping on Monday.

Mr Xi urged “all parties” in the conflict to “reduce differences”, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

He reiterated that China supported all efforts conducive to peace.

China has remained a consistent ally of Russia throughout its invasion of Ukraine, and is the top buyer of Russian oil, along with India.

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Return to China ‘not an option’, Taiwan warns – as Xi mentions issue in phone call with Trump

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Return to China 'not an option', Taiwan warns - as Xi mentions issue in phone call with Trump

Taiwan’s prime minister has warned that a “return” to China is not an option.

Cho Jung-tai’s remarks came hours after President Xi Jinping mentioned the issue on a phone call with his US counterpart Donald Trump.

Mr Xi had described Taiwan’s return to mainland China as “an integral part of the post-war international order”.

But the island’s democratically elected government has rejected this – describing Taiwan as a “fully sovereign and independent country”.

“For the 23 million people of our nation, ‘return’ is not an option – this is very clear,” Mr Cho added.

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Is Taiwan ready for a Chinese invasion?

China has offered Taiwan a “one country, two systems” model, but this position is not supported by any mainstream political party.

Meanwhile, relations between Beijing and Tokyo recently plunged to fresh lows after Japan’s prime minister suggested any attack on Taiwan would spark a military response.

Sanae Takaichi’s remarks were swiftly denounced by China’s foreign ministry, which said Japan had “crossed a red line that should not have been touched”.

Sun Yun from the Stimson Centre thinktank said: “My best guess is China is worried about the escalation with Japan.

“The reference to Taiwan and the post-World War II order directly points to the spat with Japan over Taiwan.”

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Trump scores Xi meeting out of 10

The US has not taken a side when it comes to Taiwan’s sovereignty but is opposed to any use of force to seize the territory.

Mr Trump’s administration has also been ambiguous over whether it would deploy US troops if war broke out in the Taiwan Strait.

Yesterday, Taiwan’s defence ministry spotted a single balloon from China flying over the strait and claims this is part of a campaign of harassment by Beijing.

Chinese officials have previously dismissed these complaints, arguing the balloons are for meteorological purposes.

In other developments, Mr Trump has confirmed that he will visit Beijing in April – with Mr Xi set to travel to Washington for a state visit later in 2026.

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What did Xi and Trump’s meeting tell us?

Relations have improved in recent weeks after the pair met face to face in South Korea, with the US president moving to cut tariffs.

On Truth Social, he wrote: “Our relationship with China is extremely strong!”

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US hails ‘tremendous progress’ on Ukraine peace plan – but says negotiators ‘need more time’

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US hails 'tremendous progress' on Ukraine peace plan - but says negotiators 'need more time'

The US secretary of state has hailed a “tremendous amount of progress” on peace talks after the US and Ukraine delegations met in Geneva – but said that negotiators would “need more time”.

Marco Rubio said the meetings in Switzerland on Sunday have been “the most productive and meaningful” of the peace process so far.

He said the US was making “some changes” to the peace plan, seemingly based on Ukrainian suggestions, “in the hopes of further narrowing the differences and getting closer to something that both Ukraine and obviously the United States are very comfortable with”.

Mr Rubio struck an optimistic tone talking to the media after discussions but was light on the details, saying there was still work to be done.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Geneva after peace talks with Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
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US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Geneva after peace talks with Ukraine. Pic: Reuters

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Analysis: Rubio strikes an optimistic tone – but is light on detail

“I don’t want to declare victory or finality here. There’s still some work to be done, but we are much further ahead today at this time than we were when we began this morning and where we were a week ago for certain,” Mr Rubio said.

He also stressed: “We just need more time than what we have today. I honestly believe we’ll get there.”

Sky News’ defence analyst Michael Clarke said on the initial US-Russian 28-point peace plan that it was Donald Trump against the world, with maybe only Moscow on his side.

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Is Trump’s plan a ‘capitulation document’?

Mr Rubio praised the Ukrainian attitude towards the talks and said Mr Trump was “quite pleased” after he previously said in a social media post that Ukraine’s leaders had expressed “ZERO GRATITUDE” for US efforts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Sunday that there are signs that “President Trump’s team hears us”.

In a news release on Sunday evening, the White House said the day “marked a significant step forward”.

“Ukrainian representatives stated that, based on the revisions and clarifications presented today, they believe the current draft reflects their national interests and provides credible and enforceable mechanisms to safeguard Ukraine’s security in both the near and long term,” it claimed.

Despite diplomatic progress in Geneva the finish line remains a long way off


John Sparks

John Sparks

International correspondent

@sparkomat

We’ve witnessed a day of determined and decidedly frantic diplomacy in this well-heeled city.

Camera crews were perched on street corners and long convoys of black vehicles swept down Geneva’s throughfares as the Ukrainians worked hard to keep the Americans on side.

Secretary of state Marco Rubio did not want to go into details at a press “gaggle” held at the US Mission this evening, but he seemed to think they had made more progress in the last 96 hours than the previous 10 months combined.

The Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy also seemed satisfied enough, posting on Telegram that there were “signals President Trump’s team is hearing us” after a day of “numerous meetings and negotiations”.

That said, we are a long way from the finish line here – something Rubio acknowledged when he said that any proposal agreed here would have to be handed over to the Russians.

At that point, negotiations to stop the war would surely get tougher.

President Putin has shown little or no inclination to stop the conflict thus far.

This, then, is the most important reason the Ukrainians seem determined to keep the Americans on side.

European leaders have presented a counter proposal to the widely criticised US-Russian peace plan, with suggestions including a cap on Ukraine’s peacetime army and readmitting Moscow into the G8.

This will only take place if the plan is agreed to by the US, Russia and Ukraine, and the G7 signs off on the move. Russia was expelled after annexing Crimea in 2014.

The counter proposal also includes US guarantees to Ukraine that mirror NATO’s Article 5 – the idea that “an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all”.

The initial peace plan was worked up by the White House and Kremlin without Ukraine’s involvement, and it acquiesces to many of Russia’s previous demands.

Read more:
Who actually wrote US-Russian peace plan for Ukraine?
In full: Europe’s 28-point counter proposal to US-Russia plan

It covers a range of issues – from territorial concessions to reconstruction programmes, the future Ukrainian relationship with NATO and the EU, and educational reforms in both Ukraine and Russia.

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