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Isaac Levido, the man in charge of the Conservative general election campaign, did not hold back.

“Let me be clear,” he briefed Tory MPs at a closed-door meeting last Monday, “divided parties fail”. A fat lot of good that did the prime minister.

The next day 60 Conservative MPs voted, fruitlessly, for an amendment in defiance of the government’s bill to keep the proposed Rwanda removal scheme broadly compliant with the law.

Politics latest: Tax cuts hint dropped by Rishi Sunak

The rebels included former home secretary Suella Braverman, her deputy Robert Jenrick and three resigners from payroll jobs, including Lee Anderson, the loud-mouthed party deputy chairman.

The revolt shrunk at the substantive “third reading” on Wednesday.

More than 40 of them caucused before the vote and pulled back from bringing down the bill, and probably themselves and the government with it. Only 11 rebelled.

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Still, it was a stretch for the prime minister to boast “the Conservative Party has come together” at a specially convened news conference the following day.

Sources informed Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby that several “letters had gone in” from Tory MPs demanding a vote of no confidence in Sunak.

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What next for Rwanda bill?

Such behaviour prompts the question: “Do the Conservatives have a death wish as a party of government?” To put it another way: “Do they sincerely want to win the next election?”

The public notices when a party is divided. The latest figures for December are Conservatives divided 70%, united 8%.

The polling company YouGov runs a survey tracking that issue for the Conservatives. The jaws of disillusionment sprung wide in January 2022, the height of the “partygate” revelations, and have stayed gaping wide ever since.

Labour’s large lead in the opinion polls has also been in place for the past two years.

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Two YouGov polls in the past week suggest that, if anything, it is getting bigger.

A large survey in key constituencies, commissioned by a newly formed right-wing faction calling itself the Conservative Britain Alliance, plotted the party on course to lose 196 seats, down to just 169 MPs to Labour’s 385.

Next the regular monthly poll for The Times, conducted this week, gave Labour an increased lead of 27 points in voting intention, 47% to 20%, with Nigel Farage’s Reform in third place on 12%.

In such dire circumstances, the prime minister at least is now sticking to Isaac Levido’s advice and claiming that the Conservatives are united.

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Sunak warns Lords over Rwanda Bill

He is only managing to keep them together by constantly shifting closer to the position of the rebels on the right. He has declined to punish, or remove the party whip, from those who voted against the government on the Rwanda bill.

Instead, Sunak confirmed this week that he will order civil servants to ignore last-minute, so-called “pyjama orders” from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) under Rule 39, to halt deportations.

He and his ministers have adopted the nativist rhetoric of describing the ECHR as a “foreign court”. The UK has been a founder member of the international court since 1959 and a Briton sits as one of its judges. It is not an EU institution.

Some of the rebels are veterans of the post-referendum Brexit deliberations which brought down Theresa May. Whatever moves she made in their direction were never enough.

Others, like Lee Anderson, were elected in 2019 on Boris Johnson’s coattails. Bathetically Anderson abstained in the final vote because he couldn’t stand the mockery from Labour when he entered the “nay” voting lobby.

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Boat carrying migrants seen crossing the Channel

That was a momentary weakness. The rebels have no interest in compromise and are already pressing for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR come what may, placing this nation alongside Russia and Belarus in Europe.

The prime minister claims that his Rwanda plan is the “will of the people”. It was not in the Conservative Party’s manifesto in 2019, although Boris Johnson subsequently floated the idea.

A majority of the general public, 53%, say it wouldn’t “be effective”. 40% want it abandoned, compared to 37% who say press ahead.

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Tory MP on why he voted for Rwanda

The cross-Channel migrants are a dramatic manifestation of people coming into the UK but are only a fraction of the record net total, over 600,000 a year, currently coming into the UK.

By common admission the number who would be sent to Rwanda, if the scheme were established, is smaller still. Sunak’s “Stop the Boats” policy is almost a diversion from the complex issues raised by mass migration.

Sunak is drawing attention to Labour saying it would scrap the Rwanda scheme “even if it was working”. He is continuing to tell voters that Labour has no plan, whatever policy they develop. As yet this does not seem to be damaging either Starmer or his party.

But 46% of Conservatives voters in 2019 said the Rwanda scheme would be effective, even more of them, 63%, want the government to continue with the policy.

In truth, Sunak appears more concerned with keeping the majority of his electoral base together than delivering “the will of the people”.

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Immigration is a major concern for some voters, but all categories and classes say the economy and cost of living matter more to them.

Here again, Conservative MPs are divided and feuding among themselves, with constant demands that the prime minister and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt go further with tax cuts than they feel the country can afford.

The Budget on 6 March will be a test of whether they resist or succumb to this pressure.

Read more:
PM ‘clear’ he’ll ignore international law to deport asylum seekers
Sunak challenges Lords to pass bill – what happens next?

Many Tory MPs think their “narrow path” to election victory is all but disappearing. As such winning has ceased to be a priority. They are more interested in what happens to their party and their own careers after a defeat.

At least 54 of them have given up and are retiring. Those shouting loudest about the threat from Reform want to drive party policy in Farage’s direction.

Farage appears to be more popular than Sunak with the ageing party membership who will choose the next Conservative leader but he is not eligible to stand.

Braverman, Jenrick, Badenoch and others are already positioning themselves for the vacancy which they think defeat will create.

Those on the other, One Nation, side of the party, and who managed to survive the Johnson era purges, are loyal but out of sympathy with the direction in which it is moving. They do not expect to win the next election.

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MP makes Rwanda gaffe during Commons debate

Some feel that the Conservatives will need to elect another extremist as leader, and lose again, before they can “get their party back ” – as Labour’s Neil Kinnock once put it.

Interestingly, the new roster of Conservative MPs is likely to be more moderate, given the preponderance of centrist new candidates now being selected, coupled with the likely defeat of many “red wall” Tories.

Sunak is hoping to stay in power at least until the autumn. Before then the Conservatives face parliamentary by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood and probably Blackpool North.

All will be tough to hold on to the party’s recent electoral form. Then there are the local elections in London and elsewhere. Such tests are as likely to divide as unite his party behind him.

Something may turn up. Labour needs a record swing to form a majority government and nobody, least of all Keir Starmer and his team, expect they will do as well on election day as in current opinion polls.

Still, as things stand, Issac Levido’s warning and the Conservatives’ dismissive reaction to it, may well be written into a chronicle of a political death foretold.

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Foreign Office has been hacked – ministers ‘fairly confident’ individual data not at risk

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Foreign Office has been hacked - ministers 'fairly confident' individual data not at risk

Foreign Office data has been compromised by hackers, a minister has confirmed to Sky News, but he said the government is “fairly confident” that no individual data has been accessed.

Trade minister Sir Chris Bryant told Sky’s Mornings with Jones and Melbourne that the government first became aware of the hack in October, and was now “on top of it”.

Sky News understands that the data stolen was on systems operated on the Home Office’s behalf by the Foreign Office, which detected the breach.

The Sun reported last night that a Chinese groups of hackers known as Storm 1949 targeted Foreign Office servers and had accessed information relating to visa details, with “thousands” of confidential documents and data stolen.

But the minister told Sky News that it is “not entirely clear” who is responsible for the hack, and he could share “remarkably little detail”.

The Conservatives are accusing ministers of failing to protect the UK from Chinese interference.

Sir Chris said: “There certainly has been a hack at the FCDO [Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office], and we’ve been aware of that since October.”

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Pointing to high-profile hacks this year of Marks and Spencer, Jaguar Land Rover, and the British Library, the minister added: “All of these are really important things for us to tackle and be aware of and prevent wherever possible.

“Some of the reporting has, I think, been a bit more speculation than accurate.”

He said he could share “remarkably little” in the way of facts about the hack because “quite often the investigation takes quite a long time”.

“We managed to close the hole, as it were, very quickly,” Sir Chris said.

“It was a technical issue in one of our sites, I gather. And we’re fairly confident that there’s a low risk of any individual actually being affected by this.

“I know that some of the reports have said, potentially, various things could happen. I think that that’s a bit more speculation than is helpful. So I don’t want to scaremonger about this. We are on top of it.

“And also it’s not entirely clear where this has come from. I know everybody’s speculating about that as well. That is not entirely clear either.”

Conservative shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel shared a report that said the hack was Chinese and wrote on X: “China undermines our security, institutions and democracy but Labour is failing to protect Britain from China’s foreign interference in our country.

“[Sir Keir] Starmer kowtows to China at every opportunity and cannot be trusted to protect our national interest.”

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Too late to investigate Farage election expenses, Essex Police say

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Too late to investigate Farage election expenses, Essex Police say

It is too late to investigate whether Nigel Farage broke election law on spending at the general election, Essex Police has said.

The Reform UK leader had been referred to the police following claims by a former member of his campaign team that the campaign to get Mr Farage elected in Clacton last year overspent.

There are tight rules on campaign spending in the UK, including separating what is spent as part of a national campaign and what is spent directly in a constituency.

However, there is a one-year statutory time limit to begin any investigation, which Essex Police said has now elapsed.

The force said: “We have assessed a report relating to an allegation around misreported expenditure by a political candidate in connection with the general election in July 2024.

“Having regard to the Representation of the People Act 1983, which states any prosecution for such an offence must commence within one year, it has been concluded that this report falls outside of the stated statutory time limit, and no investigation can take place.”


Last week: Reform denies Farage broke law

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The allegations of overspending on Mr Farage’s campaign were first reported at the start of last week, with Richard Everett – also a former Reform councillor – claiming he had passed information to the Metropolitan Police.

Reform was quick to deny the allegations, and accused Mr Everett of being a “disgruntled former councillor” who was expelled from the party “several months ago”.

The overspending reportedly included failing to declare spending on leaflets, banners, utility bills and the refurbishment of a bar in its Clacton campaign office – although Mr Everett said Mr Farage was “blissfully unaware” as others managed the finances.

Labour Party chair Anna Turley had also written to the Electoral Commission about the claims.

Responding yesterday, the elections watchdog said: “We have responded to Anna Turley MP’s correspondence, which raised questions about Reform UK’s spending at the 2024 general election.

“After carefully considering the information presented in the letter, we did not identify any expenditure relating to Mr Farage’s election campaign in Clacton that should have been declared in Reform UK’s national expenditure.”

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Fidelity macro lead calls $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, end of bull cycle

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Fidelity macro lead calls K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, end of bull cycle

Bitcoin may have ended its historical four-year cycle, signaling an incoming year of downside, despite widespread analyst expectations for an extended cycle driven by regulatory tailwinds.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) $125,000 all-time high on Oct. 6 may have signaled the top of the current four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, both in terms of “price and time,” according to Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macroeconomic research at asset management firm Fidelity.

“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase,” wrote Timmer in a Thursday X post. “Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a “year off” (or “off year”) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k.”

Source: Jurrien Timmer

Related: Bitcoin treasuries stall in Q4, but largest holders keep stacking sats

Crypto market may see more upside on fundamental, regulatory tailwinds

Timmer’s analysis contradicts other crypto analysts, who expect the growing number of regulated crypto investment products to lead to an extended bull market cycle in 2026.

Notably, Tom Shaughnessy, the co-founder of crypto research firm Delphi Digital, expects new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026, after investor sentiment recovers from the record $19 billion crypto market crash that occurred at the beginning of October.

“We are working through a one-time disastrous 10/10 liquidation event that broke the market,” wrote Shaughnessy in a Friday X post, adding:

“Once that’s worked through, we hit $BTC ATHs in 2026 as prices rubber band to reflect the progress outside 10/10.”

Shaughnessy said crypto market valuations will be driven by the industry’s “fundamental progress,” including growing Wall Street implementations and regulatory developments.

Related: Bitcoiners push for quantum-resistant BIP-360 upgrade as debate heats up

Policy experts are also predicting a significant year of progress on US cryptocurrency legislation, a development that may bring more institutional investment to the crypto space.

“I do expect 2026 to be another meaningful year for crypto regulation, but it will look different from the last one,” Cathy Yoon, general counsel at crypto research firm Temporal and Solana block-building system Harmonic, told Cointelegraph.

“With stablecoin legislation now passed, the real impact will come from implementation – examinations, disclosures, and how these assets integrate into payments and financial infrastructure,” she said.

Source: Santiment

However, investors’ social sentiment took a significant hit earlier this week as Bitcoin dipped below $85,000. Bearish commentary has since dominated social media platforms, including X, Reddit and Telegram, according to market intelligence platform Santiment.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry’s best-performing traders by returns, who are tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are also betting on a short-term decline for most leading cryptocurrencies.

Smart money traders top perpetual futures positions on Hyperliquid. Source: Nansen

While smart money traders were net short on Bitcoin for $123 million, the same cohort was betting on Ether’s (ETH) price increase, with $475 million worth of cumulative net long positions, Nansen data shows.

Magazine: Sharplink exec shocked by level of BTC and ETH ETF hodling — Joseph Chalom