Adam Boulton: Do the Conservatives have a death wish?
Isaac Levido, the man in charge of the Conservative general election campaign, did not hold back.
“Let me be clear,” he briefed Tory MPs at a closed-door meeting last Monday: “Divided parties fail”. A fat lot of good that did the prime minister.
The next day, 60 Conservative MPs voted, fruitlessly, for an amendment in defiance of the government’s bill to keep the proposed Rwanda removal scheme broadly compliant with the law.
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The rebels included former home secretary Suella Braverman, her deputy Robert Jenrick and three resigners from payroll jobs, including Lee Anderson, the loud-mouthed party deputy chairman.
The revolt shrunk at the substantive “third reading” on Wednesday.
More than 40 of them caucused before the vote and pulled back from bringing down the bill, and probably themselves and the government with it. Only 11 rebelled.
Still, it was a stretch for the prime minister to boast “the Conservative Party has come together” at a specially convened news conference the following day.
Sources informed Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby that several “letters had gone in” from Tory MPs demanding a vote of no confidence in Sunak.
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What next for Rwanda bill?
Such behaviour prompts the question: “Do the Conservatives have a death wish as a party of government?” To put it another way: “Do they sincerely want to win the next election?”
The public notices when a party is divided. The latest figures for December are Conservatives divided 70%, united 8%.
The polling company YouGov runs a survey tracking that issue for the Conservatives. The jaws of disillusionment sprung wide in January 2022, the height of the “partygate” revelations, and have stayed gaping wide ever since.
Labour’s large lead in the opinion polls has also been in place for the past two years.
Two YouGov polls in the past week suggest that, if anything, it is getting bigger.
A large survey in key constituencies, commissioned by a newly formed right-wing faction calling itself the Conservative Britain Alliance, plotted the party on course to lose 196 seats, down to just 169 MPs to Labour’s 385.
Next the regular monthly poll for The Times, conducted this week, gave Labour an increased lead of 27 points in voting intention, 47% to 20%, with Nigel Farage’s Reform in third place on 12%.
In such dire circumstances, the prime minister at least is now sticking to Isaac Levido’s advice and claiming that the Conservatives are united.
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Sunak warns Lords over Rwanda Bill
He is only managing to keep them together by constantly shifting closer to the position of the rebels on the right. He has declined to punish, or remove the party whip, from those who voted against the government on the Rwanda bill.
Instead, Sunak confirmed this week that he will order civil servants to ignore last-minute, so-called “pyjama orders” from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) under Rule 39, to halt deportations.
He and his ministers have adopted the nativist rhetoric of describing the ECHR as a “foreign court”. The UK has been a founder member of the international court since 1959 and a Briton sits as one of its judges. It is not an EU institution.
Some of the rebels are veterans of the post-referendum Brexit deliberations which brought down Theresa May. Whatever moves she made in their direction were never enough.
Others, like Lee Anderson, were elected in 2019 on Boris Johnson’s coattails. Bathetically Anderson abstained in the final vote because he couldn’t stand the mockery from Labour when he entered the “nay” voting lobby.
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Boat carrying migrants seen crossing the Channel
That was a momentary weakness. The rebels have no interest in compromise and are already pressing for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR come what may, placing this nation alongside Russia and Belarus in Europe.
The prime minister claims that his Rwanda plan is the “will of the people”. It was not in the Conservative Party’s manifesto in 2019, although Boris Johnson subsequently floated the idea.
A majority of the general public, 53%, say it wouldn’t “be effective”. 40% want it abandoned, compared to 37% who say press ahead.
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Tory MP on why he voted for Rwanda
The cross-Channel migrants are a dramatic manifestation of people coming into the UK but are only a fraction of the record net total, over 600,000 a year, currently coming into the UK.
By common admission the number who would be sent to Rwanda, if the scheme were established, is smaller still. Sunak’s “Stop the Boats” policy is almost a diversion from the complex issues raised by mass migration.
Sunak is drawing attention to Labour saying it would scrap the Rwanda scheme “even if it was working”. He is continuing to tell voters that Labour has no plan, whatever policy they develop. As yet this does not seem to be damaging either Starmer or his party.
But 46% of Conservatives voters in 2019 said the Rwanda scheme would be effective, even more of them, 63%, want the government to continue with the policy.
In truth, Sunak appears more concerned with keeping the majority of his electoral base together than delivering “the will of the people”.
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Immigration is a major concern for some voters, but all categories and classes say the economy and cost of living matter more to them.
Here again, Conservative MPs are divided and feuding among themselves, with constant demands that the prime minister and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt go further with tax cuts than they feel the country can afford.
The Budget on 6 March will be a test of whether they resist or succumb to this pressure.
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Many Tory MPs think their “narrow path” to election victory is all but disappearing. As such winning has ceased to be a priority. They are more interested in what happens to their party and their own careers after a defeat.
At least 54 of them have given up and are retiring. Those shouting loudest about the threat from Reform want to drive party policy in Farage’s direction.
Farage appears to be more popular than Sunak with the ageing party membership who will choose the next Conservative leader but he is not eligible to stand.
Braverman, Jenrick, Badenoch and others are already positioning themselves for the vacancy which they think defeat will create.
Those on the other, One Nation, side of the party, and who managed to survive the Johnson era purges, are loyal but out of sympathy with the direction in which it is moving. They do not expect to win the next election.
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MP makes Rwanda gaffe during Commons debate
Some feel that the Conservatives will need to elect another extremist as leader, and lose again, before they can “get their party back ” – as Labour’s Neil Kinnock once put it.
Interestingly, the new roster of Conservative MPs is likely to be more moderate, given the preponderance of centrist new candidates now being selected, coupled with the likely defeat of many “red wall” Tories.
Sunak is hoping to stay in power at least until the autumn. Before then the Conservatives face parliamentary by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood and probably Blackpool North.
All will be tough to hold on to the party’s recent electoral form. Then there are the local elections in London and elsewhere. Such tests are as likely to divide as unite his party behind him.
Something may turn up. Labour needs a record swing to form a majority government and nobody, least of all Keir Starmer and his team, expect they will do as well on election day as in current opinion polls.
Still, as things stand, Issac Levido’s warning and the Conservatives’ dismissive reaction to it, may well be written into a chronicle of a political death foretold.
Metropolitan Police is to stop investigating “non-crime hate incidents” to “reduce ambiguity” after prosecutors dropped a case against Graham Linehan.
Linehan, 57, will face no further action after being arrested over his social media posts about transgender people.
The Father Ted and IT Crowd creator said his lawyers had been told the case wouldn’t proceed. The Crown Prosecution Service confirmed the move.
Linehan, 57, was arrested on suspicion of inciting violence when he landed at Heathrow from his home in the US on 1 September.
The incident drew criticism of the police and government from some politicians and free-speech campaigners.
Met Police said today it would stop investigating “non-crime hate incidents” to “reduce ambiguity” and “provide clearer direction for officers”.
Posting on X, Linehan announced : “After a successful hearing to get my bail conditions lifted (one which the police officer in charge of the case didn’t even bother to attend) the Crown Prosecution Service has dropped the case.
“With the aid of the Free Speech Union, I still aim to hold the police accountable for what is only the latest attempt to silence and suppress gender critical voices on behalf of dangerous and disturbed men.”
The union said it had hired a “top flight team of lawyers to sue the Met for wrongful arrest, among other things”.
“The police need to be taught a lesson that they cannot allow themselves to be continually manipulated by woke activists,” it added.
A Crown Prosecution Service spokesperson confirmed it had reviewed the case file and decided “no further action” would be taken.
Linehan said he had to be taken to hospital on the day of his arrest. Pic: PA
In one of his posts, Linehan wrote: “If a trans-identified male is in a female-only space, he is committing a violent, abusive act. Make a scene, call the cops and if all else fails, punch him in the balls.”
Another was a photo of a trans-rights protest, with the comment “a photo you can smell”, and a follow-up post saying: “I hate them. Misogynists and homophobes. F*** em”.
A Met Police statement after the case was dropped acknowledged “concern” around Linehan’s arrest.
It added: “The commissioner has been clear he doesn’t believe officers should be policing toxic culture war debates, with current laws and rules on inciting violence online leaving them in an impossible position.
“As a result, the Met will no longer investigate non-crime hate incidents.
“We believe this will provide clearer direction for officers, reduce ambiguity and enable them to focus on matters that meet the threshold for criminal investigations.”
Linehan said on his blog that he was arrested by five armed officers and had to go to A&E after his blood pressure reached “stroke territory” during his interrogation.
Police said the officers’ guns were never drawn and were only present as Linehan was detained by the aviation unit, which routinely carries firearms.
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JK Rowling, who’s regularly shared her views on women’s rights in relation to transgender rights, was among those who had criticised the arrest, calling it “utterly deplorable”.
Reform’s Nigel Farage, shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, and ex-foreign secretary Sir James Cleverly also hit out at the treatment of Linehan.
UK
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The son of former England footballer Stuart Pearce has died in a crash, his family has said.
Harley Pearce, from Marlborough in Wiltshire, was driving a tractor near Witcombe, Gloucestershire, on Thursday, when he was involved in a collision, police said.
The 21-year-old farming worker died at the scene, on the A417 Old Birdlip Hill in Witcombe, around five miles from Gloucester.
No other vehicles were involved, Gloucestershire Constabulary said. Emergency services were called to the scene of the incident at about 2.30pm on October 16.
Stuart Pearce at last year’s FA Cup Final at Wembley. Pic: PA
Harley Pearce was 21 and worked in farming, according to reports.
‘Our shining star’
In a tribute posted on Facebook, Harley sister, Chelsea Pearce, said the family was “truly shocked and utterly heartbroken at the loss of our cherished son and devoted brother, Harley”.
He was, the family said, was a soul “who left an unforgettable imprint on all who knew him”.
“He was a golden boy with an infectious smile, and this shocking tragedy will leave a huge hole in the hearts of those who were fortunate enough to have known him.”
He had “a quiet, understated strength and deep kindness”.
The family said they were “so proud of the young man he had become, exhibiting a wonderful work ethic and entrepreneurial spirit in the farming industry.
“He will always be our shining star. Rest in Peace, our beautiful son and brother. You will never, ever be forgotten.”
What have police said?
Harley ran his own company, Harley Pearce Agricultural Service, talkSPORT said.
Gloucestershire Constabulary said on Thursday: “The driver of the tractor, a man in his 20s and from Wiltshire, was pronounced dead at the scene.
“His next of kin are aware and being supported by specially trained officers.”
The force is appealing for any witnesses or anyone with dashcam footage to contact them.
‘Tragic news’
Harley’s father, Stuart Pearce, played 78 times for England and was part of the Three Lions squads which reached the semi-finals of the 1990 World Cup and Euro 96, the FA said on its website.
He was later the head coach of the England Under-21s.
During a long club career, he made more than 400 appearances for Nottingham Forest, many of them as captain, during a 12-year spell at the City Ground.
He later managed the club, as well as another former club, Manchester City.
Pearce currently works as a pundit on talkSPORT, which said on its website that Harley and Chelsea were the two children he had with his ex-wife Liz.
Presenter Jim White said during a broadcast on Monday that “everybody here on this show and at talkSPORT sends our heartfelt condolences to the family of Stuart Pearce after that tragic news we’ve just heard”.
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Several of the clubs he played for posted tributes on X, including Forest, who said they were “deeply saddened”.
The club said: “The thoughts of everyone connected with Nottingham Forest are with Stuart and his family at this truly difficult time.”
West Ham United said: “We are saddened to hear of Harley Pearce’s passing.
“Everyone at the Club sends their deepest condolences to Stuart and his family at this tragic time.”
Manchester City said: “Everyone at Manchester City sends their love and thoughts to Stuart and his family at this very difficult time.”
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