Adam Boulton: Do the Conservatives have a death wish?

Published

2 years ago

January 21, 2024

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Isaac Levido, the man in charge of the Conservative general election campaign, did not hold back.

“Let me be clear,” he briefed Tory MPs at a closed-door meeting last Monday, “divided parties fail”. A fat lot of good that did the prime minister.

The next day 60 Conservative MPs voted, fruitlessly, for an amendment in defiance of the government’s bill to keep the proposed Rwanda removal scheme broadly compliant with the law.

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The rebels included former home secretary Suella Braverman, her deputy Robert Jenrick and three resigners from payroll jobs, including Lee Anderson, the loud-mouthed party deputy chairman.

The revolt shrunk at the substantive “third reading” on Wednesday.

More than 40 of them caucused before the vote and pulled back from bringing down the bill, and probably themselves and the government with it. Only 11 rebelled.

Still, it was a stretch for the prime minister to boast “the Conservative Party has come together” at a specially convened news conference the following day.

Sources informed Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby that several “letters had gone in” from Tory MPs demanding a vote of no confidence in Sunak.

Such behaviour prompts the question: “Do the Conservatives have a death wish as a party of government?” To put it another way: “Do they sincerely want to win the next election?”

The public notices when a party is divided. The latest figures for December are Conservatives divided 70%, united 8%.

The polling company YouGov runs a survey tracking that issue for the Conservatives. The jaws of disillusionment sprung wide in January 2022, the height of the “partygate” revelations, and have stayed gaping wide ever since.

Labour’s large lead in the opinion polls has also been in place for the past two years.

Two YouGov polls in the past week suggest that, if anything, it is getting bigger.

A large survey in key constituencies, commissioned by a newly formed right-wing faction calling itself the Conservative Britain Alliance, plotted the party on course to lose 196 seats, down to just 169 MPs to Labour’s 385.

Next the regular monthly poll for The Times, conducted this week, gave Labour an increased lead of 27 points in voting intention, 47% to 20%, with Nigel Farage’s Reform in third place on 12%.

In such dire circumstances, the prime minister at least is now sticking to Isaac Levido’s advice and claiming that the Conservatives are united.

He is only managing to keep them together by constantly shifting closer to the position of the rebels on the right. He has declined to punish, or remove the party whip, from those who voted against the government on the Rwanda bill.

Instead, Sunak confirmed this week that he will order civil servants to ignore last-minute, so-called “pyjama orders” from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) under Rule 39, to halt deportations.

He and his ministers have adopted the nativist rhetoric of describing the ECHR as a “foreign court”. The UK has been a founder member of the international court since 1959 and a Briton sits as one of its judges. It is not an EU institution.

Some of the rebels are veterans of the post-referendum Brexit deliberations which brought down Theresa May. Whatever moves she made in their direction were never enough.

Others, like Lee Anderson, were elected in 2019 on Boris Johnson’s coattails. Bathetically Anderson abstained in the final vote because he couldn’t stand the mockery from Labour when he entered the “nay” voting lobby.

That was a momentary weakness. The rebels have no interest in compromise and are already pressing for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR come what may, placing this nation alongside Russia and Belarus in Europe.

The prime minister claims that his Rwanda plan is the “will of the people”. It was not in the Conservative Party’s manifesto in 2019, although Boris Johnson subsequently floated the idea.

A majority of the general public, 53%, say it wouldn’t “be effective”. 40% want it abandoned, compared to 37% who say press ahead.

The cross-Channel migrants are a dramatic manifestation of people coming into the UK but are only a fraction of the record net total, over 600,000 a year, currently coming into the UK.

By common admission the number who would be sent to Rwanda, if the scheme were established, is smaller still. Sunak’s “Stop the Boats” policy is almost a diversion from the complex issues raised by mass migration.

Sunak is drawing attention to Labour saying it would scrap the Rwanda scheme “even if it was working”. He is continuing to tell voters that Labour has no plan, whatever policy they develop. As yet this does not seem to be damaging either Starmer or his party.

But 46% of Conservatives voters in 2019 said the Rwanda scheme would be effective, even more of them, 63%, want the government to continue with the policy.

In truth, Sunak appears more concerned with keeping the majority of his electoral base together than delivering “the will of the people”.

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Immigration is a major concern for some voters, but all categories and classes say the economy and cost of living matter more to them.

Here again, Conservative MPs are divided and feuding among themselves, with constant demands that the prime minister and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt go further with tax cuts than they feel the country can afford.

The Budget on 6 March will be a test of whether they resist or succumb to this pressure.

Many Tory MPs think their “narrow path” to election victory is all but disappearing. As such winning has ceased to be a priority. They are more interested in what happens to their party and their own careers after a defeat.

At least 54 of them have given up and are retiring. Those shouting loudest about the threat from Reform want to drive party policy in Farage’s direction.

Farage appears to be more popular than Sunak with the ageing party membership who will choose the next Conservative leader but he is not eligible to stand.

Braverman, Jenrick, Badenoch and others are already positioning themselves for the vacancy which they think defeat will create.

Those on the other, One Nation, side of the party, and who managed to survive the Johnson era purges, are loyal but out of sympathy with the direction in which it is moving. They do not expect to win the next election.

Some feel that the Conservatives will need to elect another extremist as leader, and lose again, before they can “get their party back ” – as Labour’s Neil Kinnock once put it.

Interestingly, the new roster of Conservative MPs is likely to be more moderate, given the preponderance of centrist new candidates now being selected, coupled with the likely defeat of many “red wall” Tories.

Sunak is hoping to stay in power at least until the autumn. Before then the Conservatives face parliamentary by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood and probably Blackpool North.

All will be tough to hold on to the party’s recent electoral form. Then there are the local elections in London and elsewhere. Such tests are as likely to divide as unite his party behind him.

Something may turn up. Labour needs a record swing to form a majority government and nobody, least of all Keir Starmer and his team, expect they will do as well on election day as in current opinion polls.

Still, as things stand, Issac Levido’s warning and the Conservatives’ dismissive reaction to it, may well be written into a chronicle of a political death foretold.

UK

Three die and a fourth in serious condition in hospital after helicopter crash on Isle of Wight

Published

3 hours ago

August 25, 2025

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Three die and a fourth in serious condition in hospital after helicopter crash on Isle of Wight

Three people have died following a helicopter crash during a flying lesson on the Isle of Wight.

A fourth person is in hospital in a serious condition following the incident, according to Hampshire Police.

Officers were called to the scene of a “helicopter that had come down” off Shanklin Road near Ventnor at 9.24am on Monday, the force said.

A spokesman for the aircraft’s owner Northumbria Helicopters said G-OCLV – which is listed as a Robinson R44 II helicopter – was involved in the accident during a flying lesson.

Helicopter ‘spiralled out of sight’ – live updates

Four people, including the pilot, were on board the aircraft, which departed nearby Sandown Airport at 9am, the company also said in a statement.

A critical care team, including a doctor and specialist paramedic, was also sent to the crash site, Hants and Isle of Wight Air Ambulance added, alongside fire engines and other emergency vehicles.

The Air Accidents Investigation Branch confirmed it was alerted to the incident and is sending a team to investigate. A major incident was declared but has since been stood down.

A spokesperson for Hampshire and Isle of Wight Air Ambulance said in a statement: “We have treated and airlifted one patient to the Major Trauma Centre, University Hospital Southampton. Our thoughts are with them, and everyone involved in today’s incident.”

Darren Toogood, editor and publisher at the Island Echo, told Sky News presenter Kamali Melbourne the helicopter crashed on a “significantly busy, high-speed road” between the village of Godshill and the seaside town of Shanklin.

“It was on one of the first flights of the day,” he said.

“It’s a bank holiday weekend in August on the Isle of Wight. It’s an incredibly busy area. Lots of tourists down at the moment. It appears no vehicles were involved, which is incredible, given how busy this road would have been this morning.”

A witness, Leigh Goldsmith, told the Isle of Wight County Press she saw the helicopter “spiralling” before crashing into a hedge as she drove along the road.

Police have closed Shanklin Road, blocking it off with several emergency vehicles, and are warning people to avoid the area.

Northumbria Helicopters said it is “giving its full cooperation to the authorities investigating this incident”.

UK

Ten organisations write urgent letter to home secretary over violence against women and girls strategy

Published

6 hours ago

August 25, 2025

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Ten organisations write urgent letter to home secretary over violence against women and girls strategy

Ten child protection organisations have written an urgent letter to the home secretary expressing concern about the omission of child sexual abuse from the government’s violence against women and girls strategy, following a Sky News report.

Groups including the NSPCC, Barnardo’s and The Internet Watch Foundation wrote to Yvette Cooper to say that violence against women and girls (VAWG) and child sexual abuse are “inherently and deeply connected”, suggesting any “serious strategy” to address VAWG needs to focus on child sexual abuse and exploitation.

The letter comes after Sky News revealed an internal Home Office document, titled Our draft definition of VAWG, which said that child sexual abuse and exploitation is not “explicitly within the scope” of their strategy, due to be published in September.

Responding to Sky News’ original report, Poppy Eyre, who was sexually abused and raped by her grandfather when she was four, said: “VAWG is – violence against women and girls. If you take child sexual abuse out of it, where are the girls?”

The Centre of Expertise on Child Sexual Abuse, which is funded by the Home Office and a signatory to the letter, estimates 500,000 children in England and Wales are sexually abused every year.

The NSPCC “welcome” the government’s pledge to halve VAWG in a decade, but is “worried that if they are going to fulfil this commitment, the strategy absolutely has to include clear deliverable objectives to combat child sexual abuse and exploitation too”, the head of policy, Anna Edmundson, told Sky News.

She warned the government “will miss a golden opportunity” and the needs of thousands of girls will be “overlooked” if child sexual abuse and exploitation is not “at the heart of its flagship strategy”.

The government insists the VAWG programme will include action to tackle child sexual abuse, but says it also wants to create a distinctive plan to “ensure those crimes get the specialist response they demand”.

“My message to the government is that if you’re going to make child sexual abuse a separate thing, we need it now,” Poppy told Sky News.

Rape Crisis, which is one of the largest organisations providing support to women in England and Wales, shares these concerns.

It wants plans to tackle child sexual abuse to be part of the strategy, and not to sit outside it.

“If a violence against women and girls strategy doesn’t include sexual violence towards girls, then it runs the risk of being a strategy for addressing some violence towards some females, but not all,” chief executive Ciara Bergman said.

A Home Office spokesperson said the government is “working tirelessly to tackle the appalling crimes of violence against women and girls and child sexual exploitation and abuse, as part of our Safer Streets mission”.

“We are already investing in new programmes and introducing landmark laws to overhaul the policing and criminal justice response to these crimes, as well as acting on the recommendations of Baroness Casey’s review into group-based Child Sexual Exploitation, and the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse,” they added.

UK

More than 80% of shoplifting offences result in no charge – as number of unsolved cases soars

Published

6 hours ago

August 25, 2025

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More than 80% of shoplifting offences result in no charge - as number of unsolved cases soars

Hundreds of shoplifting cases have gone unsolved every day, with the number of unsolved incidents rising by more than 40,000 over the past year.

New figures show that 289,464 cases of shoplifting were shut by police without a suspect in England and Wales in the year to March 2025, according to House of Commons library analysis.

Of all shoplifting cases, more than half (55%) were closed without a suspect identified, while fewer than one in five (18%) led to someone being charged.

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The data shows the number of cases closed without a suspect has also risen significantly on the previous 12 months, with 245,337 cases shut by police forces without a suspect being identified in 2023-24, a rise of more than 40,000.

The analysis, produced for the Liberal Democrats, suggests that on average, 793 shoplifting offences went unsolved every day.

Senior Conservative politicians have told Sky News that the figures “explain why Britain feels lawless”, and are urging ministers to scrap plans to largely end the use of short prison sentences, in favour of people serving time in the community.

What else does the data show?

The data covered all police forces in England and Wales, except for Humberside, but also included the British Transport Police.

It revealed the Metropolitan Police had the worst record, with 76.9% of its 93,705 shoplifting cases being closed with nobody identified as a suspect. Just 5.9% of shoplifting incidents recorded in the capital and the wider region resulted in a charge.

While the data has shown the number of unsolved cases is on the rise, it also revealed that the total number of shoplifting offences has increased dramatically, too.

In 2023-24, 444,022 cases of shoplifting were recorded. But in 2024-25, this rose to 530,643, a record high since the practice of recording the data nationally began in 2002-03.

Overall, 2,071,156 offences of all types went unsolved in the 2024-25 year. This means, on average each day, 5,674 crimes were committed that went on to be closed without a suspect. Only 7.3% of all crimes recorded resulted in somebody being charged or summoned.

The Lib Dems have repeated their calls for police and crime commissioners – elected politicians who have authority over each police force – to be scrapped. They believe the money spent on these would be better invested in frontline policing, and that police boards, made up of local councillors and other individuals, could replace them.

Lisa Smart, the party’s home affairs spokesperson, said that the data reveals an “absolute scandal” because it shows that “thousands of innocent victims are being left without the justice they deserve” every day.

She added: “The previous Conservative government left behind a legacy of failure, but the Labour government has not been quick enough to address the unsolved crime epidemic – particularly as shoplifting spirals out of control.”

Tories: There should be a ‘zero tolerance approach’ to shoplifting

Meanwhile, the shadow home secretary pointed out that shoplifting has risen by 20% under Labour, and that ministers show “no signs of gripping it”.

Chris Philp told Sky News: “The vast majority of criminals aren’t even caught – and Labour are now proposing to abolish prison sentences of under a year, so even the few that get caught won’t suffer any real punishment.”

He has called for a “zero tolerance approach” and the greater use of technology, such as facial recognition technology, so that “Labour’s shoplifting epidemic can be stopped”.

Earlier this month, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper announced a significant expansion of the use of facial recognition tech by police forces in England and Wales, with 10 new vans being rolled out – though the move was criticised by civil liberties groups.

Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said the “damning stats explain why Britain feels lawless”.

He told Sky News: “Starmer’s plan to scrap prison sentences for shoplifters will only make this worse. We need the authorities to go after these criminals and lock them up for much longer to keep the public safe.”

The government has defended the proposals to largely end the use of shorter sentences, as recommended by the independent sentencing review, carried out earlier this year by former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “Without further action, we will run out of prison places in months, courts would halt trials and the police [would] cancel arrests. That is why we are overhauling sentencing to make sure we always have the prison places needed to keep the country safe.”