Grant Shapps rejects claims the army will shrink further after 1930s danger warning
The defence secretary has disputed suggestions the size of the British Army could shrink significantly after warnings the UK risks a repeat of the 1930s without more investment.
Grant Shapps told the Sunday Morning with Trevor Philips Show that under the Conservatives, the strength of the army will not dip below its current level of around 73,000.
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It comes after a former army chief hit out at the “shrinking size” of the force, which he said had plunged from 102,000 in 2006 to 74,000 today and was “falling fast”.
A former army chief has hit out at the ‘shrinking size’ of the force. File pic
Writing in The Times, General Lord Dannatt said there was “a serious danger of history repeating itself”, pointing to the 1930s when the “woeful” state of the UK’s armed forces failed to deter Hitler.
Asked about these comments, Mr Shapps acknowledged numbers had fallen over the past decade – but he disputed the suggestion it could drop to half the size it was under Lord Dannatt’s time at the helm.
“It’s not projected to go down to 50,000. It’s actually, specifically, to 73,000 plus the reserves,” he said.
Pressed over whether under the Tories, the size of the army would not fall below this level, Mr Shapps said: “That’s correct.”
He added: “It isn’t a question of how many men and women you have on the ground only, it’s about how lethal your armed forces are.”
The size of the overall armed forces was around 188,000, Mr Shapps said.
It comes after the secretary of state warned the world could be engulfed by wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in the next five years – raising concerns about the UK’s military capability and how much was being spent on defence.
Mr Shapps has said defence spending will rise to 2.5% of GDP ‘when conditions allow’
Lord Dannatt said the UK’s defence spending as a proportion of GDP should rise to 3%, warning that if the armed forces cannot deter future aggression from Moscow or Beijing “it will not be a small war to contend with but a major one”.
The government has pledged to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by the end of the decade.
Mr Shapps said “we’re comfortably above 2%” and will get to 2.5% “when conditions allow”.
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Asked if he believed the commitment should rise to 3%, something he called for before taking the cabinet position, Mr Shapps said the “world needed to spend more”, but the UK is the biggest spender in NATO after the US.
He said that “in the long-term western spending needed to be higher”.
However, he suggested that was not currently a government priority, with ministers currently eyeing pre-election tax cuts.
Mr Shapps said: “We are committed to spending more when conditions allow. But I also think that it is true to say that people do want to see more of the money that they earn kept.”
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has hinted at tax cuts in the upcoming spring budget, comparing himself to the late chancellor Nigel Lawson, who slashed personal taxation while serving in Margaret Thatcher’s government.
The Financial Times reported Mr Hunt could be handed up to £10bn in extra headroom against his fiscal targets in the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts, paving the way for the measure.
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New laws to reduce the use of short prison sentences and toughen up community punishments are expected to be introduced within weeks.
Ministers are expected to introduce the new legislation to the Commons after the summer recess.
The changes will abolish most short-term prison sentences and introduce an earned release scheme, based on a model used in Texas, where prisoners who demonstrate good behaviour can be freed earlier – while those who disobey prison rules are detained for longer.
This will include some prisoners jailed for violent offences, although those convicted of the most dangerous crimes and for terrorism will be excluded.
Shabana Mahmood (left) was said to be impressed by the system in place in Texan prisons. Pic: PA
The new bill will introduce many of the changes recommended by the independent sentencing review, carried out by former Conservative justice minister David Gauke earlier this year. It represents one of the largest overhauls of sentencing in a generation and marks a cornerstone of the government’s effort to reduce the size of the prison population in England and Wales.
As well as reducing the use of short custodial sentences, the changes will also toughen up community sentences, introducing a wider range of punishments for those serving time outside of prison. This could include bans on going to stadiums to watch sports or music events, as well as restrictions on visiting pubs, and the wider use of drug testing.
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Becky Johnson speaks with Daniel, a former convict, who was released early after prisons reached capacity.
Other punishments could include driving and travel bans, as well as restriction zones – confining them to certain areas. Some of these can already be imposed for certain crimes, but the new laws will mean that these could be handed down by a judge for any offence.
Under the legislation, which it is understood will be introduced in September, prison sentences of 12 months or less will be scrapped, except for in exceptional circumstances such as domestic abuse cases. Meanwhile, the length of suspended sentences – where an offender is not sent to prison immediately unless they commit a further crime – will be extended from two years to three.
The justice secretary is believed to have been inspired by the earned release scheme during a visit to the States, where she learned about the model being used in Texas to cut crime and bring their prison population under control.
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England is on course to run out of prison places for adult men by November, the Justice Secretary has warned.
Shabana Mahmood said that criminals who break the rules “must be punished” and that those serving their sentences in the community “must have their freedom restricted there, too”.
She added: “Rightly, the public expect the government to do everything in its power to keep Britain safe, and that’s what we’re doing.”
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Justice added: “This government inherited a prison system days away from collapse.
“That is why we are building 14,000 more prison places, with 2,500 already delivered, but we know we can’t build our way out of this crisis.
“Without further action, we will run out of prison places in months, courts would halt trials and the police [would] cancel arrests. That is why we are overhauling sentencing to make sure we always have the prison places needed to keep the country safe.”
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