Connect with us

Published

on

The geezers are coming! The geezers are coming! 

Demographic doomsayers warn slowing birth rates and graying populations will wreak economic havoc and torpedo stocks.

Yet the dire scenarios of zombie-like boomer hoards leeching off their working progeny have it backwards: Aging populations are always, everywhere signs of progress not threats to it.

Yes America, like most developed nations, is aging. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates 9.8% of US residents were 65 or older in 1970. At the start of 2023, it was 17.3%.

In 2000, there were 20.9 folks aged 65 and older for every 100 working age counterparts (What is called the OADR or Old Age Dependency Ratio). Now there are 30.4, and the OECD projects it will top 40 by 2050.

The trend will continue to be a major theme this century, with the Census Bureau projecting Americas agedness will peak about 2080. What to do? Invest in adult diapers? 

No. Celebrate.

Every major economy ages as it prospers.

Living standards increase and lifespans follow. Birth rates fall alongside infant mortality. American males born in 1900 on average lived to 46 and females to 48. Now, its 73 for males, 79 for females.

Tremendous advances in healthcare have given us extra fruitful and productive yearsin the US, Europe, everywhere.

Mick Jagger turned 80 before the Stones play MetLife Stadium this May. AARP sponsors that tour not a joke! But boomers aplenty will splurge big-time for tickets.

Want good demographics instead? Careful what you ask for. Nations with low agedness (hence low OADRs) near-consistently suffer poverty, short lifespans, high infant mortality, wretched economies, markets, ecologies, and lifestyles.

Still, demographics arent destiny. Innovation is. History shows agedness doesnt impede growth or stocks. In 1982, Americas OADR was 20. Weve since thrived, not dived. GDP tripled. The S&P 500 returned 11.8% annualized since then.

Yes, periodic recessions and bear markets strucklike always, everywhere. But growth continued and stocks climbed.

Doomers envision oldsters as penny-pinching parasites. Growth killers! Wrong. In 1984, Americans 75 and older spent just half what those 25 to 34 did. By 2023, that leapt to nearly 80%. Again, innovation-derived prosperity rules. Longer lifespans and increased retirement ages mean oldsters earnand spendmore. Yes, the 75-plus crowd only spends 59% of what 45 to 54 do (Americas highest spending bracket). But thats well above 1984s 39%.

We geezers invest, funding capitalisms growthy magic. We give to descendants who spend. Many of us work into our 80s. (Im 73no retirement in sight.) Like legendary financier Bernard Baruch once famously said: To me old age is always 15 years older than I am. 

Age isnt the detriment it was when Baruch was born in 1870. There are now fewer physically demanding and risky agricultural and factory jobs, and more services and information-related work.

Accumulated experience and technology can make oldsters increasingly productive, not less so. (Yes, I know President Biden cant string coherent sentences together consistently and dementia hits many all part of the stats).

Demo-doomsters also erroneously extrapolate recent trends. Who really knows if developed world birthrates keep falling? Or how immigration shifts skilled workers around? Or what efficiencies new innovations bring?

Stocks? They price factors impacting firms profitability three to 30-ish months out. Not further. Demographic trends evolve glacially over decades, giving markets eons to adapt.

So let the demo-doomers keep talking. They are only bricking up the wall of worry driving this bull market higher.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

Continue Reading

Sports

Veteran pitcher Lynn retiring after 13-year career

Published

on

By

Veteran pitcher Lynn retiring after 13-year career

Longtime St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn announced Tuesday that he has retired from Major League Baseball after 13 seasons.

“Baseball season is upon us and I’m right here on the couch and that is where I’m gonna stay,” Lynn said on his wife’s podcast, “Dymin in the Rough.”

“I am officially retiring from baseball right here, right now.”

Lynn, 37, spent much of his career with the Cardinals (2011-17, 2024) but also has pitched for the Minnesota Twins (2018), New York Yankees (2018), Texas Rangers (2019-20), Chicago White Sox (2021-23) and Los Angeles Dodgers (2023).

Last season with the Cardinals, he started 23 games and had a 7-4 record with a 3.84 ERA, throwing 117⅓ innings and striking out 109.

The two-time All-Star has a career record of 143-99 with a 3.74 ERA in 364 games (340 starts), tossing 2,006⅓ innings. He ranks sixth in that category, as well as in wins, among active pitchers. Ahead of him in each category are three sure Hall of Famers — Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

Lynn, on Tuesday, made it clear that he may be spotted on the baseball field … just not in a major league game.

“There might be something a little fun around the corner upcoming weekend, so stayed tuned,” Lynn said. “But from Major League Baseball, I am done pitching.”

Continue Reading

Sports

Yanks bring back reliever Ottavino on 1-yr. deal

Published

on

By

Yanks bring back reliever Ottavino on 1-yr. deal

NEW YORK — Right-hander reliever Adam Ottavino is returning to the New York Yankees, agreeing Tuesday to a one-year contract.

A 39-year-old sidearmer, Ottavino agreed to a minor league contract with Boston on Feb. 18 and exercised his right to be released on March 23 after compiling a 10.80 ERA in five spring training appearances.

He was 2-2 with one save and a 4.34 ERA in 60 relief appearances for the New York Mets last year, stranding 15 of 20 inherited runners.

Ottavino pitched for the Yankees in 2019 and ’20, going 8-8 with a 2.76 ERA in 97 relief appearances. He is 41-43 with 46 saves and a 3.49 ERA in 14 big league seasons with St. Louis, Colorado (2012-18), the Yankees (2019-20), Boston (2021) and the Mets (2022-24).

The Yankees transferred right-hander JT Brubaker to the 60-day injured list and placed closer Devin Williams on the paternity list.

Continue Reading

Politics

Payouts for departing civil servants capped at £95,000 under voluntary exit scheme

Published

on

By

Payouts for departing civil servants capped at £95,000 under voluntary exit scheme

The most senior and long-serving civil servants could be offered a maximum of £95,000 to quit their jobs as part of a government efficiency drive.

Sky News reported last week that several government departments had started voluntary exit schemes for staff in a bid to make savings, including the Department for Environment and Rural Affairs, the Foreign Office and the Cabinet Office.

The Department for Health and Social Care and the Ministry of Housing and Local Government have yet to start schemes but it is expected they will, with the former already set to lose staff following the abolition of NHS England that was announced earlier this month.

Politics latest: PM admits cost of living crisis ‘ongoing’

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, confirmed in last week’s spring statement that the government was setting aside £150m to fund the voluntary exit schemes, which differ from voluntary redundancy in that they offer departments more flexibility around the terms offered to departing staff.

Ms Reeves said the funding would enable departments to reduce staffing numbers over the next two years, creating “significant savings” on staff employment costs.

A maximum limit for departing staff is usually set at one month per year of service capped at 21 months of pay or £95,000.

More from Politics

Whitehall sources stressed the figure was “very much the maximum that could be offered” given that the average civil service salary is just over £30,000 per year.

Whitehall departments will need to bid for the money provided at the spring statement and match the £150m from their own budgets, bringing the total funding to £300m.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Spring statement 2025 key takeaways

The Cabinet Office is understood to be targeting 400 employees in a scheme that was announced last year and will continue to run over this year.

A spokesman said each application to the scheme would be examined on a case-by-case basis to ensure “we retain critical skills and experience”.

It is up to each government department to decide how they operate their scheme.

The voluntary exit schemes form part of the government’s ambition to reduce bureaucracy and make the state more efficient amid a gloomy economic backdrop.

Ahead of the spring statement, Ms Reeves announced plans to cut civil service running costs by 15% by 2030, which ministers have said will save £2.2bn.

Read more from Sky News:
Sentencing guidelines for ethnic minority suspects delayed
Major incident declared as ‘17,000 tonnes’ of rubbish piles up

The move could result in 10,000 civil service jobs being axed after numbers ballooned during the pandemic.

Ms Reeves hopes the cuts, which she said will be to “back office jobs” rather than frontline services, but civil service unions have raised concerns that government departments will inevitably lose skilled and experienced staff.

The cuts form part of a wider government agenda to streamline the civil service and the size of the British state, which Sir Keir Starmer criticised as “weaker than it has ever been”.

During the same speech, he announced that NHS England, the administrative body that runs the NHS, would also be scrapped to eliminate duplication and cut costs.

Continue Reading

Trending