As more tankers divert from Suez Canal, there’s a ‘sea change’ in way Europe is buying crude
Al HUDAYDAH, YEMEN – JULY 17: Yemen’s replacement oil tanker Nautica floats over its arrival to Al Hudaydah port in the Red Sea on July 17, 2023 in Hudaydah, Yemen. The United Nations handed over the replacement vessel Nautica to the Sana’a government to transfer the crude oil from the deteriorating supertanker to prevent a large-scale environmental disaster if the ship’s cargo leaks into the ocean. (Photo by Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images)
Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Energy prices for Europe are expected to increase as more petroleum products and crude tankers are diverting away from the Rea Sea and Suez Canal. Longer trips for the Middle-Eastern barrels that replaced Russian flows to Europe introduce supply issues, and this is leading to a “sea change” in commodity purchases by Europe, and a boost for Atlantic Basin crude suppliers including the U.S. and Brazil.
According to global trade intelligence company Kpler, at least six crude tankers are currently taking the much longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope rather than the Suez Canal, a diversion caused by the Houthi rebel attacks and which can add up to 45 days to the voyage.
Europe is at the center of the diversions because its tanker supplies are at high risk of attack.
“The decision for these diversions is by the owners of the oil, which is European,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler. “European countries are seen as complicit in the Israel-Hamas war. They would rather go around the Cape of Good Hope versus taking a chance through the Red Sea.”
The resulting delays to the delivery of products — which include crude, diesel, and LNG products — vary based on the commodity being carried. LNG vessels travel faster than oil tankers because they are lighter and they can sail up to 21 knots versus the 12-13 knots for crude tankers.
Before the Red Sea disruptions, a tanker from Jamnagar, India to Rotterdam, Netherlands would have taken 24 days. Sailing through the Cape of Good Hope, the duration of the same voyage has risen to 42 days. From Basrah, Iraq, to Milazzo, Sicily, a voyage that would have taken 17 days will now take 42 days.
The longer transits can put a squeeze on the availability of tankers, with their return journey to be loaded up with product longer.
“It’s not just the arrival that is delayed, the tankers have a longer route home to be filled back up,” Katona said. “You are looking at 90 days for one delivery. That is a huge amount of time. The market is underestimating the impact of the transit duration.”
He said to expect tankers on the spot market see an increase in freight rates, and noted that in the past few days tankers carrying “clean products” such as diesel and gasoline have been going up.
“Ironically, the tensions in the area are benefitting tanker owners with longer voyages, increasing tanker utilization and ultimately higher freight rates,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Katona warned that the diversions are going to be a prolonged, painful event, but a boost for both the U.S. and Brazilian energy industry. “We are seeing Europeans remodeling their purchasing patterns from companies in the Atlantic basin with no logistics constraints,” he said.
The U.S. is the largest supplier to the European market of diesel, with diesel rates recently hitting their highest level in seven years.
According to Clarksons Securities, product tanker rates soared towards the end of last week, following a drop in Red Sea activity. A long range 2 (LR2) tanker vessel that is typically capable of carrying around 75,000 metric tons of the hydrocarbon naphtha, saw an increase in earnings of 33% week over week to $74,200/day, as of Monday. Medium range (MR) tankers which typically can carry between 30,000-40,000 metric tons of gasoline or gas oil, saw earnings rise 34% week over week to $42,500/day.
“It’s more expensive, but Europeans will receive it [the diesel] faster,” Katona said.
Europe has strategic petroleum reserves with 90 days supply, so there are no worries about Europe running out of oil, but he added, “The new reality is Europe will get their oil but with an insane freight cost attached to it.”
‘Looming upside risk’ in march of diverted tankers
The ENI’s Faithful Warrior was the first tanker to start the trend when it diverted on January 11. The tanker is currently in the South African territorial waters. Since then, Kpler has tracked a subsequent array of tankers that have diverted away on route to ports: Agitos to Rotterdam, Nissos Sikinos to Fos in France, Kimolos to Aliaga, Turkey, Odessa to Pachi Megara, Greece, and the tanker Kinyras, which still hasn’t flagged its final destination, according to Katona.
“Iraqi tankers carrying crude to Europe have started to sail almost uniformly towards the Cape of Good Hope,” Katona said. “Interesting, there’s just one tanker carrying Iraqi crude and going through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, incidentally taking the cargo to Turkey, to the same Tupras [refinery operator] that saw its previous cargo seized by Iran’s IRGC off the Omani coast. So they haven’t stopped trusting the route.”
Torm, Hafnia, Stena Bulk, Hafnia, BP, Frontline, Equinor, Euronav and Shell are among the tanker operators and energy companies choosing to avoid the area following recent warnings.
Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners, said this parade of tankers is part of the “looming upside risk” it has been relaying to clients.
“Longer trips for the Middle-Eastern barrels that replaced Russian flows to Europe introduce supply latency, which can be bullish in its own right. And if it looks too risky to ship from Iraq through the Suez to Europe, then cargoes from other regional producers could soon follow suit,” Book said.
Tesla has started accepting Cybertruck trade-ins, something that wasn’t the case more than a year after deliveries of the electric pickup truck started.
We are starting to see why Tesla didn’t accept its own vehicle as a trade-in: the depreciation is insane.
The Cybertruck has been a commercial flop.
When Tesla started production and deliveries in late 2023, the vehicle was significantly more expensive and had less performance than initially announced.
At one point, Tesla boasted having over 1 million reservations for the electric pickup truck, but only about 40,000 people ended up converting their reservations into orders.
Now, Cybertruck inventory is sitting unsold for months and Tesla is having to offer heavy discounts to move them.
We previously reported that Tesla refused to accept the Cybertruck, its own vehicle, as a trade-in more than a year after starting deliveries.
Tesla didn’t share an explanation at the time, but we assumed that the automaker knew the Cybertruck was depreciating at an incredible rate and didn’t want to be stuck with more trucks than it was already dealing with.
Now, Tesla has started taking Cybertruck trade-ins, at least for the Foundation Series, and it is now providing estimates to Cybertruck owners (via Cybertruck Owners Club):
Tesla sold a brand-new 2024 Cybertruck AWD Foundation Series for $100,000. Now, with only 6,000 miles on the odometer, Tesla is offering $65,400 for it – 34.6% depreciation in just a year.
Pickup trucks generally lose about 20% of their value after a year and 34% after about 3-4 years.
It’s also wroth nothing that Tesla’s online “trade-in estimates” are often higher than the final offer as noted in the footnote o fhte screenshot above.
Electrek’s Take
This is already extremely high depreciation, but Tesla is actually trying to save face with estimates like this one.
As Tesla wouldn’t even accept Cybertruck trade-ins, used car dealers also slowed down their purchases as they also didn’t want to be caught with the trucks sitting on their lots for too long.
On Car Guru, the Cybertruck’s depreciation is actually closer to 45% after a year and that’s more representative of the offers owners should expect from dealers.
That’s entirely Tesla’s fault. The company created no scarcity with the Foundation Series. They built as many as people wanted. In fact, they built too many and ended having to “buff out” the Foundation Series badges on some units to sell them as regular Cybertrucks and as of last month, Tesla still had some Cybertruck Foundations Series in inventory – meaning they have been sitting around for up to 6 months.
Now, Tesla is stuck with thousands of Cybertrucks, early owners are already getting rid of their vehicles at an impressive rate, and the automaker had to slow production to a crawl.
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Australian logistics company Linfox is making big moves to electrify its heavy-duty semi fleet with the addition of thirty new Volvo FH and FM Electric semi trucks as the Swedish brand works to begin production at its Brisbane facility.
Volvo Trucks is expecting to begin full scale production of its FH and FM Electric semi trucks at the Brisbane factory in early 2026, just in time to fill the Linfox order – which happens to be the company’s largest in Australia. So far.
“We are very proud to continue our close partnership with Linfox. The order for 30 Volvo electric trucks is proof of their trust in our company and in zero-emissions transport as a viable solution here and now,” said Roger Alm, President Volvo Trucks. “Our commitment to start building electric trucks in Australia demonstrates our confidence in this technology, and means we can offer an industry-leading range of purpose-built electric trucks all around the world.”
With the production kickoff of electric trucks in Australia, it means Volvo Trucks is building its big HDEVs and prime movers in five countries on three continents. Which, as the company’s electric fleet approaches the 100 millionth mile logged mark, probably means they’re pulling well ahead of some of the other guys.
“Linfox is excited to partner with Volvo in driving the future and leading sustainable logistics in Australia,” explains Peter Fox AM (Member of the Order of Australia), Executive Chairman of Linfox. “Further electrifying our fleet sets the standard for us and our customers and the entire industry.”
Linfox’ latest order includes 29 Volvo FH Electric and one FM Electric semi. The company currently has four electric Volvo trucks in its fleet of 195 semis, with plans to continue to electrify as ICE-powered assets reach retirement.
Electrek’s Take
Now counting miles in operation in the tens of millions and rolling out its third generation of electric semi trucks, Volvo (and, by extension, Mack and Renault) continue to build a huge lead in the commercial trucking space. The competition, meanwhile, seems content to post pictures of its first factory while trucks that have been on order for years still haven’t reached customers.
I can’t see how they (Tesla) catch up from here.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.
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Oakland International Airport (OAK) in Alameda, California is helping stressed-out air passengers breathe a little bit easier with the introduction of five new battery-electric K9MD shuttle buses to its ground equipment fleet.
Global EV leaders BYD aren’t coming to America – the Chinese brand is already here. The company has been building EVs in its $250 million, 106,000 square foot production facility in Lancaster, California since 2014, delivering hundreds of battery-electric buses to fleets across the world. With this order of five new K9MD buses, OAK becomes the latest airport to turn to BYD Ride to help electrify its ground operations.
“We applaud Oakland Airport and their commitment to electrifying its fleet,” said Jason Yan, Vice President of Sales, West Region and National Account at Ride. “[BYD] Ride is thrilled to partner with OAK to offer sustainable transportation solutions that benefit both the environment and the community.”
The K9MD buses seat up to 42 passengers and have a 208 mile operating range from a 352 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery. That battery is backed by a 12-year warranty to help keep fiscally conservative fleet buyers at ease, while the smooth, quiet, and electric drive keeps the fleet’s operators happy, too.
Oakland International Airport is operated by the Port of Oakland, and is scheduled to electrify its entire ground operations fleet by 2030.
Electrek’s Take
The people live and work near airports are exposed to more emissions than most – and that includes kids, the elderly … even their pets. Electrifying the assets that operate in those spaces pays huge and immediate dividends in terms of the public health of some of the most vulnerable populations.
It’s as good a place as any to start. Let’s go.
SOURCE | IMAGES: BYD.
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