As more tankers divert from Suez Canal, there’s a ‘sea change’ in way Europe is buying crude
Al HUDAYDAH, YEMEN – JULY 17: Yemen’s replacement oil tanker Nautica floats over its arrival to Al Hudaydah port in the Red Sea on July 17, 2023 in Hudaydah, Yemen. The United Nations handed over the replacement vessel Nautica to the Sana’a government to transfer the crude oil from the deteriorating supertanker to prevent a large-scale environmental disaster if the ship’s cargo leaks into the ocean. (Photo by Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images)
Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Energy prices for Europe are expected to increase as more petroleum products and crude tankers are diverting away from the Rea Sea and Suez Canal. Longer trips for the Middle-Eastern barrels that replaced Russian flows to Europe introduce supply issues, and this is leading to a “sea change” in commodity purchases by Europe, and a boost for Atlantic Basin crude suppliers including the U.S. and Brazil.
According to global trade intelligence company Kpler, at least six crude tankers are currently taking the much longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope rather than the Suez Canal, a diversion caused by the Houthi rebel attacks and which can add up to 45 days to the voyage.
Europe is at the center of the diversions because its tanker supplies are at high risk of attack.
“The decision for these diversions is by the owners of the oil, which is European,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler. “European countries are seen as complicit in the Israel-Hamas war. They would rather go around the Cape of Good Hope versus taking a chance through the Red Sea.”
The resulting delays to the delivery of products — which include crude, diesel, and LNG products — vary based on the commodity being carried. LNG vessels travel faster than oil tankers because they are lighter and they can sail up to 21 knots versus the 12-13 knots for crude tankers.
Before the Red Sea disruptions, a tanker from Jamnagar, India to Rotterdam, Netherlands would have taken 24 days. Sailing through the Cape of Good Hope, the duration of the same voyage has risen to 42 days. From Basrah, Iraq, to Milazzo, Sicily, a voyage that would have taken 17 days will now take 42 days.
The longer transits can put a squeeze on the availability of tankers, with their return journey to be loaded up with product longer.
“It’s not just the arrival that is delayed, the tankers have a longer route home to be filled back up,” Katona said. “You are looking at 90 days for one delivery. That is a huge amount of time. The market is underestimating the impact of the transit duration.”
He said to expect tankers on the spot market see an increase in freight rates, and noted that in the past few days tankers carrying “clean products” such as diesel and gasoline have been going up.
“Ironically, the tensions in the area are benefitting tanker owners with longer voyages, increasing tanker utilization and ultimately higher freight rates,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Katona warned that the diversions are going to be a prolonged, painful event, but a boost for both the U.S. and Brazilian energy industry. “We are seeing Europeans remodeling their purchasing patterns from companies in the Atlantic basin with no logistics constraints,” he said.
The U.S. is the largest supplier to the European market of diesel, with diesel rates recently hitting their highest level in seven years.
According to Clarksons Securities, product tanker rates soared towards the end of last week, following a drop in Red Sea activity. A long range 2 (LR2) tanker vessel that is typically capable of carrying around 75,000 metric tons of the hydrocarbon naphtha, saw an increase in earnings of 33% week over week to $74,200/day, as of Monday. Medium range (MR) tankers which typically can carry between 30,000-40,000 metric tons of gasoline or gas oil, saw earnings rise 34% week over week to $42,500/day.
“It’s more expensive, but Europeans will receive it [the diesel] faster,” Katona said.
Europe has strategic petroleum reserves with 90 days supply, so there are no worries about Europe running out of oil, but he added, “The new reality is Europe will get their oil but with an insane freight cost attached to it.”
‘Looming upside risk’ in march of diverted tankers
The ENI’s Faithful Warrior was the first tanker to start the trend when it diverted on January 11. The tanker is currently in the South African territorial waters. Since then, Kpler has tracked a subsequent array of tankers that have diverted away on route to ports: Agitos to Rotterdam, Nissos Sikinos to Fos in France, Kimolos to Aliaga, Turkey, Odessa to Pachi Megara, Greece, and the tanker Kinyras, which still hasn’t flagged its final destination, according to Katona.
“Iraqi tankers carrying crude to Europe have started to sail almost uniformly towards the Cape of Good Hope,” Katona said. “Interesting, there’s just one tanker carrying Iraqi crude and going through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, incidentally taking the cargo to Turkey, to the same Tupras [refinery operator] that saw its previous cargo seized by Iran’s IRGC off the Omani coast. So they haven’t stopped trusting the route.”
Torm, Hafnia, Stena Bulk, Hafnia, BP, Frontline, Equinor, Euronav and Shell are among the tanker operators and energy companies choosing to avoid the area following recent warnings.
Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners, said this parade of tankers is part of the “looming upside risk” it has been relaying to clients.
“Longer trips for the Middle-Eastern barrels that replaced Russian flows to Europe introduce supply latency, which can be bullish in its own right. And if it looks too risky to ship from Iraq through the Suez to Europe, then cargoes from other regional producers could soon follow suit,” Book said.
The e-bike industry in the West has long been a tale of two territories. North Americans enjoy higher speeds and power limits for their electric bicycles while Europeans are held to much stricter (i.e. slower and lower) speed and power limits. However, things might change based on current discussions on rewriting European e-bike regulations.
New power levels are not totally without precedent, either. The UK briefly considered doubling its own e-bike power limit from 250 watts (approximately 1/3 horsepower) to 500 watts, though the move was ultimately abandoned.
But this time, the call for more power is coming from within the house – i.e., Germany. The Germans are the undisputed leaders and trend setters in the European e-bike market, accounting for around two million sales of e-bikes per year. Home to leading e-bike drive makers like Bosch, the country has yet another advantage when it comes to making – or regulating – waves in the industry.
And while there aren’t any pending law changes, the largest German trade organization ZIV (Zweirad-Industrie-Verband), which is highly influential in achieving such changes, is now discussing what it believes could be pertinent updates to current EU electric bike regulations.
Some of the new regulations involve creating rules maxing out power at levels such as 400% or 600% of the human pedaling input. But a key component of the proposed plan includes changing the present day power limit of e-bikes from 250W of continuous power at the motor to 750W of peak power at the drive wheel.
The difference includes some nuance, since continuous power is often considered more of a nominal figure, meaning nearly every e-bike motor in Europe wears a “250W” or less sticker despite often outputting a higher level of peak power. Even Bosch, which has to walk the tight and narrow as a leader in the European e-bike drive market, shared that its newest models of motors are capable of peak power ratings in the 600W level. That’s still far from the commonly 1,000W to 1,300W peak power seen in US e-bike motors, but offers a nice boost over an actual 250W motor.
Other new regulations up for discussion include proposals to limit fully-loaded cargo e-bike weights to either 250 kg (550 lb) for two-wheelers or 300 kg (660 lb) for e-bikes with more than two wheels. As road.cc explained, ZIV also noted that, “separate framework conditions and parameters must be defined for cargo bikes weighing more than 300 kg (see EN 17860-4:2025) as they differ significantly from EPACs and bicycles in their dynamics, design and operation.” Such heavy-duty cargo e-bikes, which often more closely resemble small delivery vans than large cargo bikes, are becoming more common in the industry and have raised concerns about cargo e-bike bloat, especially in dedicated cycling paths.
It’s too early to say whether European e-bike regulations will actually change, but the fact that key industry voices with the power to influence policy are openly advocating for it suggests that new rules for the European market are a real possibility.
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China just laid out a plan to roll out over 100,000 ultra-fast EV charging stations by 2027 – and they’ll all be open to the public.
The National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) joint notice, issued on Monday, asks local authorities to put together construction plans for highway service areas and prioritize the ones that see 40% or more usage during holiday travel rushes.
The NDRC notes that China’s ultra-fast EV charging infrastructure needs upgrading as more 800V EVs hit the road. Those high-voltage platforms can handle super-fast charging in as little as 10 to 30 minutes, but only if the charging hardware is up to speed.
China had 31.4 million EVs on the road at the end of 2024 – nearly 9% of the country’s total vehicle fleet. But charging access is still catching up. As of May 2025, there were 14.4 million charging points, or roughly 1 for every 2.2 EVs.
To keep the grid running smoothly, China wants new chargers to be smart, with dynamic pricing to incentivize off-peak charging and solar and storage to power the charging stations.
To make the business side work, the government is pushing for 10-year leases for charging station operators, and it’s backing the buildout with local government bonds.
The NDRC emphasized that the DC fast chargers built will be open to the public. This is a big deal because a lot of fast chargers in China aren’t. For example, BYD’s new megawatt chargers aren’t open to third-party vehicles.
As of September 2024, China had expanded its charging infrastructure to 11.4 million EV chargers, but only 3.3 million were public.
Read more: California now has nearly 50% more EV chargers than gas nozzles
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