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Government borrowing came in sharply lower than expected last month, boosting the chancellor’s aim of pre-election giveaways in his March budget.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed public sector net borrowing at £7.8bn in December.

That was £8.4bn less than in the same month a year earlier and the lowest in any December since 2019.

Economists had forecast a figure above £11bn but debt interest payments fell by more than expected.

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That was due to October’s sharp drop in the retail price index measure of inflation to which many government bonds are linked.

The cost of servicing student loan debt also fell sharply.

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The borrowing sum took the total for the first nine months of the financial year to £119.1bn.

While that figure is £11.1bn up on the April-December period a year earlier, it is almost £5bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast for the period.

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Chancellor aims to cut taxes

Jeremy Hunt told Sky News last week, while attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, that he wants to cut taxes in his 6 March budget as it would be the quickest route to getting the economy growing again.

The UK, like many of its European rivals, is flat-lining as the effects of inflation and the battle to get the pace of price rises down hold back demand.

The chancellor faces a delicate balancing act as he faces demands from Conservative MPs to bolster the party’s popularity in the run-up to the election, expected later this year.

The UK tax burden is running near highs last seen since the wake of the Second World War but he will be anxious to do nothing to diminish the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the months ahead.

A big giveaway would risk stoking inflation, forcing the Bank of England to potentially delay the start of reversing its interest rate hikes which financial markets see from May.

Such a delay could force a halt to falling borrowing costs, particularly for mortgages in the current price war.

The latest inflation data showed an unexpected increase – blamed on a rise in tobacco duties imposed by Mr Hunt in the autumn statement.

The big question is how much wiggle room Mr Hunt will have given the challenges across the global and domestic economy.

At the time of his budget update in November, he was judged to have about £13bn to play with without diverting from his target for bringing down the public debt burden.

Ruth Gregory, an economist with Capital Economics, said that figure was now likely to be around the £20bn area.

“That will probably allow him to unveil a freeze in fuel duty in April 2024 [costing about £6bn a year] but perhaps
also to announce more crowd-pleasing measures, such as a 1p cut to income tax [costing £6.9bn a year], while still maintaining fiscally prudent appearances,” she wrote.

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Does Labour’s spending plan add up?

Chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott said: “Protecting millions of lives and livelihoods during Putin’s energy shock and a once-in-a-century pandemic has created economic challenges.

“However, it is right that we pay back these debts so future generations are not left to pick up the tab.

“Because of this government’s decisive action, the economy is now beginning to turn a corner. Inflation has more than halved.

“Debt is on track to fall as a share of the economy. And we have been able to afford tax cuts for 27 million working people, and an £11bn tax cut to drive business investment.”

Her Labour shadow, Darren Jones, said: “Rishi Sunak failed to grow the economy and now we know he failed to get debt falling.

“National debt his now at the highest level since the 1960s – and has more than doubled since 2010.

“Britain cannot afford another five years of this low growth, high tax Conservative government that is leaving working people worse off. It’s time for change.”

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Trump’s son-in-law Kushner takes stake in UK lender OakNorth

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Trump's son-in-law Kushner takes stake in UK lender OakNorth

The private equity firm set up by Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, is to take a stake in OakNorth, the British-based lender which has set its sights on a rapid expansion in the US.

Sky News has learnt that Affinity Partners, which has amassed billions of dollars in assets under management, has signed a deal to acquire an 8% stake in OakNorth.

The deal is expected to be concluded in the coming weeks, industry sources said on Friday.

Mr Kushner established Affinity Partners in 2021 after leaving his role as an adviser to President Trump during his first term in the White House.

He is married to Ivanka, the president’s daughter.

Affinity manages money for a range of investors including the sovereign wealth funds of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Insiders said that Affinity Partners was buying the OakNorth stake from an unidentified existing investor in the digital bank.

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The valuation at which the transaction was taking place was unclear, although OakNorth was valued at $2.8bn in its most recent funding round in 2019.

OakNorth, which was founded by Rishi Khosla, is targeting substantial loan growth in the US in the coming years.

Earlier this year, it agreed to buy Community Unity Bank (CUB), which is based in Birmingham, Michigan, in an all-share deal.

The transaction is awaiting regulatory approval.

OakNorth began lending in the US in 2023 and has since made roughly $1.3bn of loans.

The bank is chaired by the former City watchdog chair Lord Turner, and is among a group of digital-only British banks which are expected to explore stock market listings in the next few years.

Monzo, Revolut and Starling Bank are all likely to float by the end of 2028, although London is far from certain to be the destination for all of them.

Similarly, OakNorth’s ambition to grow its US presence means it is likely to be advised by bankers that New York is a more logical listing venue for the business.

Launched in 2015, the bank is among a group of lenders founded after the 2008 financial crisis.

Its UK clients include F1 Arcade and Ultimate Performance, both of which have themselves expanded into the US market.

Its existing backers include the giant Japanese investor SoftBank, GIC, the Singaporean state fund, and Toscafund, the London-based asset management firm.

Since its launch, OakNorth has lent around £12.5bn and boasts an industry-leading loan default ratio.

Last year, it paid out just over £30m to shareholders in its maiden dividend payment.

OakNorth has been growing rapidly, saying this year that it had recorded pre-tax profits of £214.8m in 2024, up from £187.3m the previous year.

It made more than £2.1bn of new loans last year.

On Friday, a spokesperson for OakNorth declined to comment.

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Government will not offer bailout to UK’s largest bioethanol plant

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Government will not offer bailout to UK's largest bioethanol plant

The UK’s largest bioethanol plant is set for closure with the loss of 160 jobs after the government confirmed it would not offer a bailout deal to the facility in Lincolnshire. 

Owners Vivergo, a subsidiary of Associated British Foods, had warned that the plant would close without government support, and sources at the company have told Sky News the wind-down process is now likely to begin.

An ABF spokesperson, which also owns Primark, said the government’s decision was “deeply regrettable” and it had “chosen not to support a key national asset”.

They added that the government had “thrown away billions in potential growth in the Humber and a sovereign capability in clean fuels that had the chance to lead the world”.

Vivergo have blamed the UK’s trade deal with the United States, which ended a 19% tariff on imported ethanol, for making the plant unviable.

Ethanol tariffs were cut along with those on beef as part of the UK-US deal, which focused on reducing or removing Donald Trump’s import taxes on UK cars and aerospace parts.

The plant, which converts wheat into the fuel typically added to petrol to reduce carbon emissions, was already losing £3m a month before the trade deal, with industrial energy prices, the highest among developed economies, cited as a major factor.

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Vivergo and ABF have warned of the threat to the plant since the spring, but had hoped negotiations with the government would lead to an improved offer by the end of the week. On Friday morning, they were told there would be no bailout.

Government sources said they had employed external consultants to provide advice, and pointed out that the plant had not been profitable since 2011.

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A government spokesman said: “Direct funding would not provide value for the UK taxpayer or solve the long-term problems of the bioethanol industry.”

“This government will always take decisions in the national interest. That’s why we negotiated a landmark deal with the US which protected hundreds of thousands of jobs in sectors like auto and aerospace.

“We have worked closely with the companies since June to understand the financial challenges they have faced over the past decade, and have taken the difficult decision not to offer direct funding as it would not provide value for the taxpayer or solve the long-term problems the industry faces.

“We recognise this is a difficult time for the workers and their families and we will work with trade unions, local partners and the companies to support them through this process.

“We also continue to work up proposals that ensure the resilience of our CO2 supply in the long-term in consultation with the sector.”

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said the government’s decision not to provide support to the UK’s bioethanol industry was “short-sighted” and “totally disregards the benefits the domestic bioethanol sector will bring to jobs and energy security”.

“Once again, the government’s total lack of a plan to support oil and gas workers as the industry transitions is glaring,” Ms Graham added.

GMB Union’s Charlotte Brumpton-Childs said the closure of the Hull and Redcar bioethanol plants would result in “working people losing their livelihoods”, adding that this was the impact of tariffs and trade deals.

“They’re not numbers in a spreadsheet. These are lives put on hold and communities potentially devastated,” she said.

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Vivergo: How US-UK trade deal could bring about collapse of huge renewable energy plant in Hull

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Vivergo: How US-UK trade deal could bring about collapse of huge renewable energy plant in Hull

The smell of yeast still hangs in the air at the Vivergo plant in Hull but the machines have fallen quiet. 

More than 100 lorries usually pass through here each day, carrying 3,000 tonnes of wheat. It is milled, fermented and distilled. The final product is bioethanol, a renewable fuel that is then blended into E10 petrol.

This is a vast operation. It took several years to build, with considerable investment, but it is on the verge of closing down. Management and staff are holding out for a last-minute reprieve from the government but time is running out.

It’s been a turbulent journey. The plant was already being annihilated by US rivals, losing about £3m a month. Vivergo and Ensus, based in Teesside, blamed regulations that enable US companies to earn double subsidies.

They were pushing for regulatory change but then a killer blow: The US-UK trade deal, which allows 1.4 billion litres of American ethanol into the UK tariff-free (down from 19%).

“We’ve effectively given the whole of the UK market to the US producers,” said Ben Hackett, managing director at Vivergo.

“If we were to have the same support that the US industry has, if we could use genetically modified crops, we wouldn’t need that tariff. We would be able to compete. If we had the same energy costs. We wouldn’t need those tariffs.”

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The government has the weekend to come up with a plan that could keep the business running. If it fails, Vivergo will begin issuing redundancy notices to its 160 staff.

Ben Hackett
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Ben Hackett

It’s a devastating prospect for workers, many of them live in Hull and are nervous about alternative opportunities in the area.

Mike Walsh, a logistics manager who has been working at the plant for 14 years, said: “It’s not a great place to be at the moment. It’s a very well paid, very high-skilled role and they’ve (Vivergo) given everybody an opportunity in an area that doesn’t pay that well…. The jobs market isn’t as good as what people would like. So it does impact the local economy.”

He called on the government to “help us, save us, give this industry a future”.

His colleague Claire Wood, lead productions engineer, said: “I moved here after a career in oil and gas for 10 years, partly because I want to be part of the transition to renewable fuels. I can see so much potential here and it’s absolutely devastating to know that this place might be closed very, very shortly and that all that potential just goes away.”

Thousands more could be affected. Haulage companies may have to lay off truck drivers and farmers could also suffer a blow.

Vivergo makes bioethanol using wheat. That wheat is bought from farms from Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

Claire Wood
Image:
Claire Wood

The National Farmers Union has sounded the alarm, saying: “Biofuels are extremely important for the crops sector, and their domestic demand of up to two million tonnes can be very important to balance supply and demand and to produce up to one million tonnes of animal feed as a by-product.”

Another bioproduct is carbon dioxide. The gas can be captured and used to put the fizz in drinks or injected into packaging to preserve food.

If Vivergo and Ensus were to go, Britain would lose as much as 80% of its output of carbon dioxide. Supplies are already tight across Europe, meaning this decision could compound shortages across a range of sectors, from meat-packing to healthcare.

The industry is calling on the government to help. Vivergo says it needs temporary financial support but that the government must create a regulatory and commercial environment in which it can thrive.

It says rules that award double subsidies to companies that use waste product in their bioethanol must be changed. At present, these rules are being used by US companies that make ethanol from Uldr – a by-product of processing corn. They argue this is not a genuine waste product.

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Another option is to grow the market. Industry leaders are calling on ministers to increase the mandated renewable fuel content in petrol from 10% to 15% and for an expansion into aviation fuels. That would allow British companies to carve out a space.

The government has been locked in talks with the company since June.

It said: “We will continue to take proactive steps to address the long-standing challenges it faces and remain committed to a way forward that protects supply chains, jobs and livelihoods.”

However, the time for talking is almost over.

Mr Hackett said he had no idea how the government would respond but he was firm with his stance, saying: “In times of global uncertainty, losing that energy certainty and supply from the UK is a problem.

“I think what they’re missing out on is the future growth agenda. We’re the foundation on which the green industrial strategy can be built. We make bioethanol that today decarbonises transport. Tomorrow it will decarbonise marine. It will decarbonise aviation.”

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