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Government borrowing came in sharply lower than expected last month, boosting the chancellor’s aim of pre-election giveaways in his March budget.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed public sector net borrowing at £7.8bn in December.

That was £8.4bn less than in the same month a year earlier and the lowest in any December since 2019.

Economists had forecast a figure above £11bn but debt interest payments fell by more than expected.

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That was due to October’s sharp drop in the retail price index measure of inflation to which many government bonds are linked.

The cost of servicing student loan debt also fell sharply.

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The borrowing sum took the total for the first nine months of the financial year to £119.1bn.

While that figure is £11.1bn up on the April-December period a year earlier, it is almost £5bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast for the period.

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Chancellor aims to cut taxes

Jeremy Hunt told Sky News last week, while attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, that he wants to cut taxes in his 6 March budget as it would be the quickest route to getting the economy growing again.

The UK, like many of its European rivals, is flat-lining as the effects of inflation and the battle to get the pace of price rises down hold back demand.

The chancellor faces a delicate balancing act as he faces demands from Conservative MPs to bolster the party’s popularity in the run-up to the election, expected later this year.

The UK tax burden is running near highs last seen since the wake of the Second World War but he will be anxious to do nothing to diminish the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the months ahead.

A big giveaway would risk stoking inflation, forcing the Bank of England to potentially delay the start of reversing its interest rate hikes which financial markets see from May.

Such a delay could force a halt to falling borrowing costs, particularly for mortgages in the current price war.

The latest inflation data showed an unexpected increase – blamed on a rise in tobacco duties imposed by Mr Hunt in the autumn statement.

The big question is how much wiggle room Mr Hunt will have given the challenges across the global and domestic economy.

At the time of his budget update in November, he was judged to have about £13bn to play with without diverting from his target for bringing down the public debt burden.

Ruth Gregory, an economist with Capital Economics, said that figure was now likely to be around the £20bn area.

“That will probably allow him to unveil a freeze in fuel duty in April 2024 [costing about £6bn a year] but perhaps
also to announce more crowd-pleasing measures, such as a 1p cut to income tax [costing £6.9bn a year], while still maintaining fiscally prudent appearances,” she wrote.

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Does Labour’s spending plan add up?

Chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott said: “Protecting millions of lives and livelihoods during Putin’s energy shock and a once-in-a-century pandemic has created economic challenges.

“However, it is right that we pay back these debts so future generations are not left to pick up the tab.

“Because of this government’s decisive action, the economy is now beginning to turn a corner. Inflation has more than halved.

“Debt is on track to fall as a share of the economy. And we have been able to afford tax cuts for 27 million working people, and an £11bn tax cut to drive business investment.”

Her Labour shadow, Darren Jones, said: “Rishi Sunak failed to grow the economy and now we know he failed to get debt falling.

“National debt his now at the highest level since the 1960s – and has more than doubled since 2010.

“Britain cannot afford another five years of this low growth, high tax Conservative government that is leaving working people worse off. It’s time for change.”

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.

The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.

It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.

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The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.

Why is this happening?

Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.

This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.

The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.

Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.

What is the FTSE 100?

The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.

Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.

Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.

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FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.

If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.

The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.

A good close for markets

It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.

Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.

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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week

Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.

Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.

Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.

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Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

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Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.

The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.

Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.

Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.

He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.

While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.

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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained

“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”

In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.

The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.

The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs could mean for rest of the world

The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.

It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.

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What has Trump done since winning?

Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.

Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.

“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”

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Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

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Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.

Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.

Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.

It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.

Money blog: Surprise as FTSE 100 soars to new record high

That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.

Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.

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How pints helped bring down inflation

If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.

Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.

The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.

His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.

News of more cuts has boosted markets.

The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.

State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.

The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.

Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.

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