Millions of people in UK would need to double their income to escape poverty, new report warns
Millions of Britons would need to more than double their income to climb out of poverty, according to a new report criticising “social failure at scale”.
According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, six million people were in very deep poverty in 2021-22 – 1.5 million more than 20 years ago.
This means they received less than 40% of the country’s median (middle) income after housing costs.
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These people would need an additional £12,800 a year to reach the poverty line, which is defined as 60% of median income.
Giving an example of a couple with two children under 14 living in poverty, JRF suggested the average income for this type of family after housing costs was £21,900 – and they would need an extra £6,200 yearly just to reach the poverty line.
In the mid-1990s, the gap was £3,300 after adjusting for inflation.
The JRF has warned that the poverty gap – the amount of money needed to bring the incomes of those in poverty to the poverty line – has widened.
In 2021-22, 22% of the population (14.4 million people) were in poverty in the UK – including 8.1 million working-age adults, 4.2 million children and 2.1 million pensioners.
This equates to two in 10 adults, and three in 10 children.
People have been increasingly reliant on food banks – especially this winter
There are many reasons why people are stuck in poverty – including illnesses or redundancies – but according to the Big Issue, “structural and systemic issues” worsened by increasing living costs create a “cycle that keeps people trapped” in hardship.
The JRF showed that poverty rates grew rapidly under Margaret Thatcher’s administration in the 1980s and remained high, with small decreases in following governments.
Its report urged political parties to include an essentials guarantee in Universal Credit, ensuring people always have enough to cover “life essentials like food and energy”.
Former prime minister Gordon Brown recently told Sky News that Universal Credit was “not working” and needed to be addressed after citing families unable to afford fundamental housing appliances and forgoing basic hygiene products like soap and toothpaste due to the cost of living crisis.
The Trussell Trust network, which supports more than 1,300 food bank centres across the UK, had forecast that more than 600,000 people would rely on food banks from December until February this year.
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Paul Kissack, JRF group chief executive, confirmed families were spiralling deeper below the poverty line.
He said: “Little wonder that the visceral signs of hardship and destitution are all around us – from rocketing use of foodbanks to growing numbers of homeless families.
“This is social failure at scale.”
Mr Kissack said political parties must set out their plans to “turn back the tide on poverty” as the country approaches a general election.
Consumer champion Martin Lewis said the “stark reality” was that people’s incomes were less than their minimum necessary spend, despite help from money charities.
He said the JRF report must prompt policymakers and regulators to “sit up [and] take note and address these deep-rooted problems”.
A government spokesperson said: “We are continuing to support families with the cost of living backed by £104bn – and there are 1.7 million fewer people living in absolute poverty, including 400,000 children, compared to 2010.
“Children are five times less likely to experience poverty living in a household where all adults work, compared to those in workless households.”
The spokesperson added that taxes have been cut and inflation is being curbed “so hard-working people have more money in their pocket”.
The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.
The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.
It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.
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The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
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FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.
The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.
Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.
Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.
He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.
While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.
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“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”
In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.
The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.
The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.
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The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.
It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.
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Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.
Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.
“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”
Business
Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025
A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.
Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.
Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.
It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.
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That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.
Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.
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If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.
Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.
The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.
His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.
News of more cuts has boosted markets.
The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.
State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.
The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.
Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.
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