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The passing of the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill to its next stage is good news for Rishi Sunak. 

MPs gave the bill a second reading by 293 votes to 211 on Monday evening, with the government securing a majority of 82.

The prime minister is a man, remember, who said he wants to “max out” drilling for North Sea oil and gas.

There’s been outcry, of course, from environmentalists, the clean energy industry, his political rivals and even some within his party.

But anger at the bill plays into the hands of Mr Sunak. Because it’s not really about energy security at all, but politics.

Number 10 is banking on using strong rhetoric around the continued need for oil and gas as part of its strategy of being “honest” with the public about the reality of ambitious net zero targets.

A strategy it hopes will win votes among those who’ve read headlines about the costs of a net zero transition and angry about protests by people like Just Stop Oil.

Others, including some Conservatives, argue it’s more cynical than that – an attempt to foment a “culture war” around net zero and the economic and social upheaval it will bring, to win a few much-needed votes in the next election.

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Climate: Fossil fuel era is ending?

Trivial gains

Now the government does have a point on the need for locally sourced natural gas.

Not a lot of campaigners like to admit this, but about 80% of the UK’s energy still comes from fossil fuels – most of it now gas. Even today, half the gas we use domestically is produced in the North Sea.

But does that mean the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill is going to help with that?

In short, no. The additional gas a new licensing regime might yield is trivial.

Yet there’s plenty of anti-net zero sounding rhetoric coming from the government.

Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho told the Commons on Monday evening that those opposing the bill are “putting the interests of extreme climate ideologues over the interests of ordinary workers”.

Yet despite talk of “maxing out” the North Sea, the government says it remains committed to an economy-wide transition to low carbon energy that climate science says is necessary and also inevitable.

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Can net zero target be hit?

All the more reason, argues the government, that it supports the oil and gas industry. The bill, it claims, will protect 200,000 jobs directly and indirectly connected to the offshore fossil fuel industry.

And it is true, many of these jobs are the highly skilled ones that will be needed in the transition to low-carbon energy. Building a floating offshore wind turbine is very similar to building a floating oil platform.

Only oil industry experts – including Lord Browne, the former CEO of BP – have pointed out tweaks to oil licensing won’t help secure those jobs.

The industry is in decline anyway. The only way to protect jobs is with a meaningful shift in support for the low-carbon economy.

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Loud shouting

The government is funding a switch to renewables – including offshore in the North Sea. But, in the absence of a coherent energy strategy, the fossil fuel rhetoric really doesn’t help accelerate the clean transition it says it wants.

Companies wanting to invest in in low-carbon alternatives in the UK hardly see themselves as “extreme climate ideologues”.

By shouting louder about the need for locally produced fossil fuels, than the need to support low carbon energy it makes the UK look like a less reliable place to invest.

What of the Opposition? Despite having more of the facts laid out above on its side, Labour is also making political capital by opposing the bill – arguing it’s the only party that can deliver a transition that’s fair for workers.

But it’s going to have problems of its own delivering that if it finds itself in government later this year.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs in the fossil fuel economy from offshore workers to gas and heating engineers will need to “transition”.

But unions, many representing those too close to retirement to retrain to install wind farms or heat pumps, won’t support that enthusiastically.

Either way, playing politics with net zero isn’t going to help. The energy transition in the North Sea is happening anyway – the one all parties want to see is one that preserves as many jobs as will be inevitably lost as the oil and gas reservoirs decline.

That requires a coherent, costed and bold plan to manage what some see as the biggest economic and societal upheaval since the industrial revolution.

Most energy experts agree no political party is presenting us with one of those at the moment.

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September – slower than expected

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September - slower than expected

The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.

The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.

Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.

And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.

Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers,” she said in response to the figures.

“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.

“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.

The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector

The UK’s GDP for the the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.

The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.

It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.

The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.

The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.

Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.

The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.

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Chancellor’s Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape – saying post-financial crash rules went ‘too far’

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Chancellor's Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape - saying post-financial crash rules went 'too far'

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has criticised post-financial crash regulation, saying it has “gone too far” – setting a course for cutting red tape in her first speech to Britain’s most important gathering of financiers and business leaders.

Increased rules on lenders that followed the 2008 crisis have had “unintended consequences”, Ms Reeves will say in her Mansion House address to industry and the City of London’s lord mayor.

“The UK has been regulating for risk, but not regulating for growth,” she will say.

It cannot be taken for granted that the UK will remain a global financial centre, she is expected to add.

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It’s anticipated Ms Reeves will on Thursday announce “growth-focused remits” for financial regulators and next year publish the first strategy for financial services growth and competitiveness.

Rachel Reeves
Image:
Rachel Reeves


Bank governor to point out ‘consequences’ of Brexit

Also at the Mansion House dinner the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will say the UK economy is bigger than we think because we’re not measuring it properly.

A new measure to be used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – which will include the value of data – will probably be “worth a per cent or two on GDP”. GDP is a key way of tracking economic growth and counts the value of everything produced.

Brexit has reduced the level of goods coming into the UK, Mr Bailey will also say, and the government must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations.

Mr Bailey will caveat he takes no position on “Brexit per se” but does have to point out its consequences.

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Bailey: Inflation expected to rise

In what appears to be a reference to the debate around UK immigration policy, Mr Bailey will also say the UK’s ageing population means there are fewer workers, which should be included in the discussion.

The greying labour force “makes the productivity and investment issue all the more important”.

“I will also say this: when we think about broad policy on labour supply, the economic arguments must feature in the debate,” he’s due to add.

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The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.

Mr Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.

He will say: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this. The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”

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Reeves has welcome support from Bank’s governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City

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Reeves has welcome support from Bank's governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City

When Gordon Brown delivered his first Mansion House speech as chancellor he caused a stir by doing so in a lounge suit, rather than the white tie and tails demanded by convention.

Some 27 years later Rachel Reeves is the first chancellor who would have not drawn a second glance had they addressed the City establishment in a dress.

As the first woman in the 800-year history of her office, Ms Reeves’s tenure will be littered with reminders of her significance, but few will be as symbolic as a dinner that is a fixture of the financial calendar.

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Her host at Mansion House, asset manager Alastair King, is the 694th man out of 696 Lord Mayors of London. The other guest speaker, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, leads an institution that is yet to be entrusted to a woman.

Ms Reeves’s speech indicates she wants to lean away from convention in policy as well as in person.

By committing to tilting financial regulation in favour of growth rather than risk aversion, she is going against the grain of the post-financial crash environment.

“This sector is the crown jewel in our economy,” she will tell her audience – many of whom will have been central players in the 2007-08 collapse.

Sending a message that they will be less tightly bound in future is not natural territory for a Labour chancellor.

Her motivation may be more practical than political. A tax-and-spend budget that hit business harder than forewarned has put her economic program on notice and she badly needs the growth elements to deliver.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves poses with the red budget box outside her office on Downing Street in London, Britain October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
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Rachel Reeves on budget day. Pic: PA

Her plans to consolidate local authority pension schemes so they might match the investing power of their Canadian and Australian counterparts is part of the same theme.

Infrastructure investment is central to Reeves’s plan and these steps, universally welcomed, could unlock the private sector funding required to make it happen.

Bank governor frank on Brexit and growth

If the jury is out in a business financial community absorbing £25bn in tax rises, she has welcome support from Mr Bailey.

He is expected to deliver some home truths about the economic inheritance in plainer language than central bankers sometimes manage.

Britain’s growth potential, he says, “is not a good story”. He describes the labour market as “running against us” in the face of an ageing population.

With investment levels “particularly weak by G7 standards”, he will thank the chancellor for the pension reforms intended to unlock capital investment.

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Governor warns inflation expected to rise

He is frank about Brexit too, more so than the chancellor has dared.

While studiously offering no view on the central issue, Mr Bailey says leaving the EU had slowed the UK’s potential for growth, and that the government should “welcome opportunities to rebuild relations”.

There is a more coded warning too about the risks of protectionism, which is perhaps more likely with Donald Trump in the White House.

“Amid threats to economic security, let’s please remember the importance of openness,” the Bank governor will say.

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All that is welcome for Ms Reeves.

Already a groundbreaking chancellor, she is aiming for a political and economic legacy that extends beyond her gender and the dress code.

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