Introducing the HOF Class of 2024: Why Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer are Hall of Famers
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
We have a new group of Baseball Hall of Famers: Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer and Todd Helton all exceeded the 75% threshold required from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America to gain entry to Cooperstown.
While Beltre was the only slam-dunk selection of the class, it’s still a fun group, with Mauer and Helton both spending their entire career with one team and becoming franchise icons for the Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies. Beltre, meanwhile, aged so wonderfully that he became one of the most popular players in the game during his time with the Texas Rangers, his fourth MLB team.
How and why did they get elected? Let’s take a look at each player.
Why Adrian Beltre is a Hall of Famer
When Beltre became a free agent after the 2009 season, following five seasons with the Seattle Mariners after starting his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he hardly looked like a future Hall of Famer. He had just finished his age-30 season, hitting .265/.304/.379 and missing six weeks after surgery to remove bone spurs in a shoulder and another two weeks after a bad hop left him with a swollen testicle. He had been a good player in Seattle, and he had enjoyed a monster 2004 season when he finished second in MVP voting in L.A., but he wasn’t exactly in high demand coming off that rough walk year and settled for a one-year contract with the Boston Red Sox.
His career turned around in Boston, however. He hit .321 with 28 home runs and 49 doubles and signed a big deal with Texas, where he would spend his final eight seasons and build his Hall of Fame résumé through a remarkable run of production in his 30s. Through age 30, Beltre ranks 91st in WAR among position players (still impressive, although he did reach the majors at age 19); from age 31 onward, he ranks 14th. He finished with 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1,707 RBIs and five Gold Gloves. He ranks 26th among position players in WAR (93.5), between Roberto Clemente and Al Kaline, and third among third basemen, behind Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews.
What happened in his 30s? Here are three reasons Beltre turned into a Hall of Famer:
1. He left Seattle.
In his five seasons with the Mariners, he hit just .254/.307/.410 at home, while hitting .277/.326/.472 on the road with 40 more doubles. “It’s a beautiful ballpark,” Beltre said when he returned to Seattle’s Safeco Field for a series in 2010. “But it’s no secret that offensively when you try and hit in this ballpark, it’s a little tough on you.”
It wasn’t just leaving Seattle. Beltre did become a better hitter, with help from then-Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan in 2010. Beltre’s strikeout rate with the Mariners was a low 16.2%; over the rest of his career, even as strikeouts rose across the majors, it was just 12.3%. He also became a little less pull-centric. Through age 30, his OPS+ was 105; after age 30, it was 130.
But he also went to home parks where he thrived. In his final nine seasons with Boston and Texas, he hit .330/.385/.555 at home; on the road, he hit .284/.332/.476 (not much different than his road numbers when he was with the Mariners).
2. He remained a strong defensive player.
Beltre already had an elite defensive reputation when he left Seattle, although he had somehow won just two Gold Gloves. “He’s the best I’ve ever seen,” his former Mariners teammate Raul Ibanez told the Boston Glove in 2010. “He’s blessed with some great instincts at third,” then-Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. “But he takes more ground balls than anybody I’ve ever seen.”
While many third basemen eventually move to first base — assuming their bat is good enough — or even DH, Beltre remained at third and added three more Gold Gloves. Baseball-Reference credits Beltre with 216 fielding runs above average in his career, the fifth-highest total at any position (and second behind Brooks Robinson among third baseman). That continued defensive excellence helped fuel Beltre’s high career WAR total.
3. Durability.
Beltre averaged 148 games per season from age 31 through age 37, with only a leg injury that limited him to 124 games his first year in Texas cutting into that average. Since he reached the majors at such a young age, he ranks 15th all time in games played, second in games at third base and 18th in plate appearances. WAR is a cumulative stat, so the simple act of showing up and playing well creates value. Maybe Beltre isn’t quite an inner circle guy — certainly, at their best, I’d take Schmidt, Mathews, George Brett and probably Chipper Jones above Beltre among third basemen — but he is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer, and the vote totals reflect that.
Why Todd Helton is a Hall of Famer
Helton was a two-way baseball star at Tennessee and once started at quarterback on the football team ahead of a freshman named Peyton Manning. The eighth pick in the 1995 draft, Helton reached the majors in 1997, and over his first seven full seasons, he hit .340/.434/.620 while averaging 35 home runs and 118 RBIs. Along the way, he joined Hall of Famers Lou Gehrig and Chuck Klein as the only players with two seasons with 100 extra-base hits.
Of course, those seasons came at Coors Field in the peak of the steroid era, when many hitters were putting up absurd numbers. At the time, it was difficult to make sense of it all, even from those first-generation statistical analysts. Comparing Helton to Sandy Koufax, Baseball Prospectus once wrote, “Both players are very good, among the best in the game, but it’s easy to overestimate how good, because their stats are wildly distorted. There are people who have an emotional attachment to the idea that Sandy Koufax was one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, rather than a good one with a high peak and some fortuitous timing. It would be interesting to ask those people how they rank Todd Helton, because Helton 2000-03 is going to have a lot in common with Koufax 1963-66.”
While Helton would play 17 seasons and finish with a .316 lifetime batting average, back problems slowed him considerably in the second half of his career, leaving him short of 3,000 hits (2,519) or even 400 home runs (369). His Hall of Fame case was a difficult one to analyze on several fronts, and he received just 16.5% of the vote his first year on the ballot, in 2019. In his sixth year, however, he made it. Here’s why:
1. The crowded ballot cleared up room for Helton.
Timing can be everything for a candidate; it can sometimes come down to who else is on the ballot, especially at your position.
The Hall of Fame ballot logjam that existed throughout most of the 2010s had cleared up some by 2019, but it still featured a lot of strong and borderline candidates. In 2019, four players got in: Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina. Helton’s former Rockies teammate Larry Walker was still there. Fred McGriff was there in his final season. Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were on their seventh ballots. Helton finished just 15th in votes.
When Walker made it into the Hall the following season, it clearly helped: Walker had overcome the Coors Field stigma, so maybe Helton could, as well. Then the ballot thinned out. In 2021, the BBWAA threw a shutout, but Helton’s vote total climbed to 44.9.%. There was a lack of strong new candidates entering the ballot (David Ortiz made it in 2022), and when Schilling, Bonds and Clemens left the ballot after 2022, it was the weakest it had been in decades. Helton’s numbers or value didn’t change, but the perception of him did in comparison to the other candidates.
2. An appreciation of his peak.
Coors Field or not, Helton’s five-year run from 2000 to 2004 was remarkable: .372, .336, .329, .358, .347. Those are Tony Gwynn-like averages, with way more power and walks. With WAR, we can make the appropriate Coors Field adjustments and Helton still shines. Among first basemen, Helton’s best five seasons total 37.6 WAR, ranking fourth all time behind only Gehrig, Albert Pujols and Jimmie Foxx, and accounts for much of his career 61.8 total.
Over his career, Helton hit .345 at Coors Field. But he still hit an excellent .287/.386/.469 on the road. And during his dominant five-year stretch from 2000 to 2004, he hit .314/.418/.556 away from altitude, the ninth highest OPS over those years. Only Bonds, Jason Giambi and Manny Ramirez had a higher road OBP during that stretch, and nobody hit more doubles. Factor in the Coors Field penalty that Rockies players have to deal with — the brain has to readjust to pitches that move more on the road — and Helton still comes out as one of the best hitters of his era.
3. A .316 lifetime batting average looks awesome in 2024.
Yes, voters pay more attention to analytics than ever. But the BBWAA bloc still features old-school stats voters who don’t care about a player’s WAR — and a .316 career average looks more impressive with each passing season. The only player since 1900 with at least 6,000 plate appearances and a higher lifetime average than Helton who is not in the Hall of Fame is Babe Herman. In essence, the young, analytical voters appreciated Helton’s high peak value, and the older, less-analytical voters couldn’t ignore that .316 average.
Why Joe Mauer is a Hall of Famer
When the Twins selected Mauer with the first pick in the 2001 MLB draft, it was viewed as a bit of a compromise choice: They were selecting the local high school hero over USC right-hander Mark Prior, who was considered the greatest college pitcher ever after a dominant junior season, just to save money. The Twins, after all, had failed to sign first-round picks Jason Varitek in 1993 and Travis Lee in 1996.
“Twins did not draft best player,” read the headline in the Minneapolis Star Tribune. “The Twins passed on the best player in the amateur baseball draft,” columnist Dan Barreiro wrote. “They blinked, they surrendered, they choked, they conceded. … Understand that money is the one and only reason the Twins went the direction they did.” And this was Mauer’s hometown newspaper criticizing the selection.
Indeed, while Mauer signed for a hefty $5.15 million signing bonus, the Chicago Cubs took Prior with the second pick and signed him to a five-year, $10.5 million major league contract. The Twins insisted Mauer was a worthy No. 1 overall choice, while Prior’s father blasted the franchise after a team official claimed the Prior camp had asked for $20 million.
While we’ll never know if Prior would have become a Hall of Famer had he stayed healthy, Mauer is now heading to Cooperstown. Here are three key reasons:
1. Tremendous peak value as a catcher.
While Mauer played just nine full seasons behind the plate before concussions necessitated a move to first base, it was a tremendous run. His seven-year peak WAR of 39.0 ranks fifth all time among catchers, behind Gary Carter, Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez. Mauer won three batting titles along the way, including posting a .365 mark in 2009 that no hitter has reached since. One under-the-radar factor that helps a player get elected is the idea of being the best in his league at his position. While the National League had Buster Posey and Yadier Molina, Mauer was clearly the best catcher in the American League during his time. Even the voters who might not pay attention to WAR can appreciate that distinction.
2. His MVP season in 2009 was one of the best ever for a catcher.
Given that Mauer’s career counting stats don’t stand out — 143 home runs, 923 RBIs, 2,123 hits — it helped that he had that astronomical MVP season in his bio (and three other top-10 MVP finishes). He hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs and 96 RBIs while winning a Gold Glove. He led the AL in all three triple-slash categories, and his adjusted OPS trails only two Piazza seasons among catchers, while Mauer’s 7.8 WAR ranks as the fifth highest ever for a catcher. Best in the game — even if for only one season — is a nice argument for your Hall of Fame consideration.
3. His career WAR is high enough.
With 55.2 WAR, Mauer ranks ninth among players who were primarily catchers — meaning the top 11 catchers in WAR are now all Hall of Famers. Yes, some of Mauer’s value was earned after his move to first base, but in combination with his peak value, it was enough to get in. Consider his ranking among those 11 catchers:
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Batting average (.306, fourth)
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OBP (.388, second)
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OPS+ (124, seventh)
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Hits (2,123, sixth)
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Doubles (428, third)
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Batting runs above average (239, fifth)
He wasn’t a power hitter, and he didn’t last long, but the voters got it right: Mauer compares favorably to the other Hall of Fame catchers.
The 2025 season is on the way and several budding players on our Way-Too-Early Top 25 teams are primed for breakout campaigns.
Tony Rojas should add to Penn State’s proud Linebacker U tradition. After a banner freshman season, safety KJ Bolden is on his way to becoming Georgia’s next defensive star. And incoming freshman running back Gideon Davidson could give Clemson’s offense an immediate jolt.
Who else could break out in 2025? Our college football experts break it down:
Breakout player: Eddrick Houston, DE
With all four starting defensive linemen (Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton) from the national title team moving on to the NFL, the Buckeyes have a major void to fill up front. But Houston, the No. 35 overall recruit last year, seems primed to step into a lynchpin role along the defensive line. Houston (6-foot-3, 270 pounds) was recruited as a defensive end but played inside last season. Wherever he ends up in 2025, he figures to be an impact player for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Breakout player: Arch Manning, QB
It’s kind of hard to break out when your name is Arch Manning — even if he’s a first-year starter — so we’ll go with the man who could be Manning’s security blanket in coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense: Spencer Shannon. Two years ago, Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders caught 45 passes for 682 yards. Last season, TE Gunnar Helm caught 60 passes for 786 yards and seven TDs. As a redshirt freshman, he appeared in four games last season, but Sarkisian has touted him as their best in-line blocker and someone who has vastly improved his ball skills. At 6-7 and 255 pounds, he’s a mismatch for linebackers and Sarkisian noted he has spent two seasons practicing with Manning already, so they have a rapport. — Dave Wilson
Breakout player: Tony Rojas, LB
After earning honorable-mention All-Big Ten honors as a sophomore, Rojas, a rising standout linebacker, seems primed for a big 2025 season. Rojas surged in the College Football Playoff, highlighted by his pick-six in Penn State’s opening-round victory over SMU. With Abdul Carter on his way to the NFL and All-Big Ten linebacker Kobe King gone as well, Rojas should take on a more central role under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. — Trotter
Breakout player: Jaden Greathouse, WR
Until the CFP semifinal and national championship game, Greathouse had only 359 yards receiving. But in those final two games against Penn State and Ohio State, Greathouse stepped up for 13 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. In the second half against the Buckeyes, Greathouse spearheaded a furious Notre Dame comeback that came up just short. That spectacular ending could prove to be a springboard for Greathouse to be even greater in 2025. — Trotter
Breakout player: KJ Bolden, DB
One of the best young defenders in the SEC last season, Bolden made his presence felt on the back end of that Georgia defense. As a true freshman, Bolden was overshadowed by All-American safety Malaki Starks but rose up and played some of his best football in the postseason. He’ll only get better in 2025 and will be one of the anchors in a Georgia secondary that is also returning some talented young cornerbacks. Bolden is an excellent open-field tackler and, according to Pro Football Focus, gave up only eight yards in 134 coverage snaps last season. — Chris Low
Breakout player: Makhi Hughes, RB
Running back Jordan James was an underrated part of the Oregon offense last season and, with him leaving for the NFL, the Ducks were quick to add Hughes from the transfer portal to try to fill the void. Hughes spent his past two seasons at Tulane averaging over 5 yards per carry each of those two seasons and totaling 22 touchdowns (15 last season). Without Dillon Gabriel under center and with a younger quarterback in Dante Moore taking over, it wouldn’t be surprising if offensive coordinator Will Stein relies on Hughes (as well as the rest of the Ducks’ running back room) to be the fulcrum of their offense this coming season. — Paolo Uggetti
Breakout player: Gideon Davidson, RB
Unlike last season, when Clemson was all-too tethered to Phil Mafah, it’s a crowded backfield for the Tigers in 2025. Still, that doesn’t mean a lead back won’t emerge from a group that includes last year’s second-leading rusher Jay Haynes, David Eziomume, Keith Adams Jr. and converted receiver Adam Randall. But if there’s a true superstar to emerge, set those sights Davidson, a true freshman described by coach Dabo Swinney as “the best freshman back in the country.” Davidson was ranked as a top-100 prospect across the board, and he averaged better than 9 yards per carry in high school. He’s explosive and powerful, and if he hits the ground running at Clemson, he could carve out a sizable role on an offense poised to be among the most talented in the country. — David Hale
Breakout player: Nic Anderson, WR
Even though he’s new to the LSU roster after transferring from Oklahoma, Anderson has all the tools to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in 2025, especially with Garrett Nussmeier throwing to him. The 6-4, 220-pound Anderson sat out all but one game last season after tearing his quadriceps. But as a redshirt freshman in 2023, he set an Oklahoma freshman record with 10 touchdown catches and averaged 21 yards per catch. Anderson is back to full strength, and with Kyren Lacy headed to NFL, Anderson should emerge as the go-to receiver in LSU’s offense. — Low
Breakout player: Keelan Marion, WR
The Cougars return their top two pass catchers from last season between Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter. But if a BYU offense that finished 11th in passing yards per game among Big 12 programs last season is going to take a leap with second-year starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff, it might require Marion to carve out a larger role. An All-American kick returner who caught 24 passes in 2024, Marion has yet to fully unleash the downfield potential he flashed when he hauled in 28 passes for 474 yards and 5 touchdowns as a freshman at UConn in 2021. Year 3 with the Cougars could be the platform for Marion and his elite speed to become another important weapon for a BYU offense shouldering the weight of Big 12 title and legitimate playoff aspirations in 2025. — Eli Lederman
Breakout player: Nyck Harbor, WR
There might not be a receiver in the country more physically intimidating than Nyck Harbor, who checks in at 6-5, 235 pounds. That’s made him an object of curiosity on South Carolina’s offense for the past two years, despite only small steps forward in his development. But as LaNorris Sellers blossomed down the stretch last season, Harbor, too, seemed to find something extra, finishing with 15 catches, 272 yards and two scores in his final five games of the 2024 season. The Gamecocks wide receivers room was less than dynamic as a whole last year, but Harbor represents real promise — and after two years of incremental improvement, he looks poised to truly deliver on that promise in 2025. — Hale
Breakout player: Cannon Butler, DL
A central focus of the Cyclones’ offseason has been the challenge of replacing 1,110-yard receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, and Iowa State added a pair of new options for quarterback Rocco Becht in transfer pass catchers Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF). But the Cyclones also have production to fill in on the defensive line after the departures of defensive end Joey Petersen (team-high 8.0 TFL last fall) and 2024 sack leader J.R. Singleton. Enter Butler, an athletic defensive lineman and Northern Iowa transfer who totaled 59 tackles and 1.5 sacks in an impressive junior season last fall. At 6-6, 241 pounds, Cannon carries positional flexibility to play on the edge or inside and has tools to establish himself as a valuable component in an otherwise inexperienced Cyclones defensive end unit this fall. — Lederman
Breakout player: Ty Simpson, QB
There will be some intrigue this spring surrounding the quarterback battle at Alabama, especially with Ryan Grubb coming in as offensive coordinator. The Crimson Tide brought in five-star freshman Keelon Russell, and talented Austin Mack followed Kalen DeBoer to Alabama from Washington last year. But it’s Simpson’s time now after backing up Jalen Milroe the past two seasons. The Alabama staff really liked the way Simpson competed last preseason and last spring, and he wasn’t too far behind Milroe. While not as dynamic an athlete as Milroe, Simpson is still plenty athletic and more consistent throwing the ball. This is Simpson’s fourth year on campus, and though he hasn’t played much, he’s a good fit for what Grubb and DeBoer want to do on offense. — Low
Breakout player: Cole Rusk, TE
The Illini had big hopes last season for Rusk, who transferred in after earning FCS All-American honors at Murray State. But Rusk sustained a season-ending knee injury during fall camp. Rusk will now have an opportunity to give quarterback Luke Altmyer a reliable pass-catching option after Illinois’ tight ends combined to generate only 20 receptions last season. — Trotter
Breakout player: Kyson Brown, RB
Replacing the 1,711 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns All-American running back Cam Skattebo produced last fall won’t be easy. The portal addition of Army transfer Kanye Udoh (1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024) is promising for the Sun Devils’ 2025 backfield, but the 293 carries Skattebo logged last season are more than Udoh had in two years at Army (278), meaning Arizona State probably will have to spread its backfield snaps a bit more in 2025. If that’s the case, third-year rusher Brown could be in line for a bigger role this fall after recording 351 yards and a pair of scores, averaging 4.81 yards per attempt as a sophomore. Brown’s ability in the passing game also distinguishes him alongside Udoh, who brings a grand total of two career receptions in 23 career games operating in Army’s run-heavy offense. — Lederman
Breakout player: LJ Johnson Jr., RB
Miami transfer Brashard Smith was a surprise star for the Mustangs last season, rushing for 1,332 yards and 14 TDs. With Smith departing for the NFL, Johnson, who rushed for 879 yards over the past two seasons, returns to give the Mustangs a powerful runner, but SMU spreads the field and will need someone to help fill Smith’s shoes. Rhett Lashlee highlighted freshman Dramekco Green Jr., who averaged 9.2 yards per carry and rushed for more than 1,500 yards as a high school senior, as someone who could get early playing time. — Wilson
Breakout player: Jerand Bradley, WR
The stakes are heightened for second-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson in 2025, and Kansas State reinforced at wide receiver to help him this offseason, adding transfer pass catchers Bradley (Boston College), Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Jaron Tibbs (Purdue). Among that trio, Bradley stands out as the most intriguing. The 6-5 receiver, who began his career at Texas Tech, never fully settled in during his lone season at Boston College in 2024. But Bradley been as an productive downfield target in the Big 12 before, hauling in 87 passes for 1,175 yards and 10 touchdowns across the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Red Raiders, and he’ll have an opportunity to assert himself in the Wildcats’ passing attack alongside top returner Jayce Brown, who logged 47 receptions for 832 yards and 5 touchdown in 2024. — Lederman
Breakout player: Zen Michalski, OL
The Hoosiers picked up a key transfer from down the road in former Notre Dame center Pat Coogan, who started 26 games for the Fighting Irish. But another transfer could also play a big role up front as Indiana revamps its offensive line after last year’s playoff run. Michalski stepped in after left tackle Josh Simmons sustained a season-ending knee injury, then started the next game against Nebraska before sustaining his own injury. Michalski could slide in at right tackle in his first season as a full-time starter and solidify an Indiana offense that holds promise behind transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza. — Trotter
Breakout player: Caleb Banks, DT
The Gators got a huge win when defensive tackle Banks decided to return to school for one more season to anchor a front that improved dramatically as 2024 progressed. Banks had an impressive final month. In the final three games, the 6-6, 325-pound Banks had seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. In all, he had 21 tackles (10 solo) and will now be relied on to help set the tone up front for a team with growing expectations. As much excitement as there is surrounding DJ Lagway, there is also tremendous upside for the Florida defense heading into 2025. — Andrea Adelson
Breakout player: Mike Matthews, WR
Matthews came in as a five-star receiver last season as a freshman but didn’t provide much production for a Tennessee offense that was lacking in explosive plays. He briefly flirted with transferring after the season but decided to return and is somebody the Vols desperately need to blossom and give them some firepower in the passing game. Matthews caught seven passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns last season. He has big-play ability written all over him, and with Tennessee losing seven receivers from last season’s team, there’s a chance for Matthews to live up to his billing. — Low
Breakout player: Jordan Guerad, DL
After battling an early season injury, Guerad had a strong finish to his season, culminating with six tackles (two for a loss) and a sack in the bowl game against Washington. The interior of the D-line looks like a point of need for the Cardinals after the departures of Thor Griffin, Dezmond Tell and Notre Dame transfer Jared Dawson, but a healthy Guerad will get ample opportunity to continue his development and prove he’s the answer to Louisville’s biggest defensive need. — Hale
Breakout player: Jordan Marshall, RB
The Wolverines featured a strong running back duo last season in Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, who combined for 1,537 yards. But with both runners sitting out the ReliaQuest Bowl to prepare for the draft, the Wolverines might have uncovered their back of the future in Marshall. A blue-chip freshman out of Ohio, Marshall rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries in the first meaningful action of his career, earning bowl game MVP honors in Michigan’s 19-13 victory over Alabama. With Marshall and Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, running back seems primed to remain a strength for the Wolverines. — Trotter
Breakout player: Terry Bussey, WR
The Aggies landed the dynamic Bussey, the No. 1 athlete and No. 18 overall prospect in the 2024 ESPN 300, with an eye on him playing cornerback. But with a more urgent need for playmakers on offense, he switched to wide receiver late in the summer. His best game came against Missouri, when he caught three passes for 76 yards. On the season, he caught only 17 passes, but 11 came in the last four games. With a year under his belt on offense full time, the Aggies are hoping to find more creative ways to utilize his 4.4 speed. — Wilson
Breakout player: Elija Lofton, TE
Lofton drew raves last season as a freshman for his versatility and playmaking ability. Though he played in every game, Miami had three more experienced tight ends on the roster so his snaps were limited. That will no longer be the case heading into the 2025 season. With Elijah Arroyo, Cam McCormick and Riley Williams all gone, Lofton will take over as the top tight end. Though it might appear that the group depth will take a hit, the coaching staff feels great about the position because of what Lofton is poised to become as he reaches his full potential. At 6-3, 230 pounds, he has the athleticism to play both tight end and running back, but also the size and strength to block the way Miami expects from its tight ends. — Adelson
Breakout players: Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines, RBs
There is no more Ashton Jeanty in the backfield for Boise State, but the majority of the offense built to support a strong running attack remains. It’s why Dubar and Gaines could be in line for breakout seasons. In two seasons, Dubar has had limited action (87 carries, 434 yards and 4 touchdowns) and Gaines’ freshman season in 2024 featured 20 carries for 156 yards and 1 touchdown. With quarterback Maddux Madsen returning, and an internal hire as the new offensive coordinator in Matt Miller, the system that can fuel another explosive rusher is not so different in 2025. Come the fall, Madsen probably will be asked to do a lot more, but so will Dubar and Gaines. — Uggetti
Breakout player: Zxavian Harris, DT
Ole Miss had one of the most dominant defensive lines in the country last season, and the Rebels’ numbers bear that out. They were second nationally in scoring defense and rushing defense and set a school record with 53 sacks. Most of the key players from that unit are gone, but Harris, a 6-7, 320-pound tackle, returns in the middle of that Ole Miss defensive line and will be force in 2025. He has played in 37 games over the past three seasons and shown flashes of dominance. His senior season will be his best yet, and Ole Miss will need that from him. — Low
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Jorge Castillo
SARASOTA, Fla. — The state of the 2025 Baltimore Orioles, one of enviable surplus in position-player talent and a potential deficit in the pitching department, was on display in their clubhouse Tuesday afternoon.
First, 41-year-old Charlie Morton, the second-oldest player in the majors, was scratched from his Grapefruit League start against the Toronto Blue Jays that evening without an immediate reason, briefly raising concerns that the Orioles’ rotation had experienced another setback. Within minutes, corner infielder Coby Mayo, one of the top prospects in baseball, openly expressed his displeasure to reporters about Baltimore’s decision to option him to minor league camp.
But Morton was not injured — the Orioles just chose to have him pitch in a simulated setting on a back field instead of facing a division rival. And the Orioles are not down on Mayo, who has clubbed 34 home runs with a .919 OPS in Triple-A over the past two seasons — they simply decided they did not have room for him on the big league roster.
“That’s what happens when you have good teams,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said.
The Orioles expect to be good for a reason. The question is, how good?
This year’s club features a lineup, fueled by a ballyhooed young core, that should mash even after Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs left to join the Blue Jays during the offseason. The starting rotation, however, projects as the worst in a loaded American League East — the only division in baseball that PECOTA projects will have all five teams win at least 80 games.
“The other four teams are really, really good teams,” Hyde said. “It’s going to be a dogfight every night. You’re going to be facing somebody that’s really good on a nightly basis in the division.”
The Orioles have been good enough to navigate the treacherous AL East and reach the postseason in each of the past two years. Whether they can make another playoff appearance — and finally win a game in October — will come down to their pitching, particularly the starting rotation.
The Orioles do not have a proven ace. They had one last season in Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young Award winner whom they acquired entering his final season before free agency. Burnes had an All-Star season in Baltimore, posting a 2.92 ERA across 32 starts. Then he left. Seeking a home out West, the right-hander signed a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks at the end of December.
The Orioles have replaced him with two veteran free agents on the wrong side of the aging curve — Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano — on one-year deals for a combined $28 million. To fill the hole left by Santander in the outfield, they signed veteran Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal. In the process, Baltimore, in David Rubenstein’s first offseason as principal owner, raised its luxury tax payroll from $89.4 million last season to $126.8 million, which ranks 24th in baseball, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
“I think it’s a tough thing in sports, particularly for baseball, particularly for teams that aren’t the handful of larger market teams that can run the $300 million payrolls, that you’re going to have athletes leave,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias said. “Nobody wants it any time, but a big part of our profession is scripting out what’s the healthiest way to run the organization long term and from top to bottom and sometimes that involves not being the winner on a free agent.”
The rotation took another step back earlier this month when Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles’ projected No. 1 starter, was shut down with elbow inflammation. He started throwing again Tuesday, but will begin the season on the injured list, leaving Zach Eflin to start on Opening Day in Toronto. Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Albert Suárez complete Baltimore’s list of options for the rotation.
Internal reinforcements could eventually bolster the group. Right-hander Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2023, is on track to join the rotation in the second half of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. Left-hander Trevor Rogers, an All-Star in 2021 who struggled mightily upon being traded to Baltimore last summer, could be available early in the season after dislocating his right kneecap in January.
The final spot in the rotation is a competition between Povich, a 24-year-old left-hander who recorded a 5.54 ERA in 16 starts last season, and Suárez, a 35-year-old journeyman who emerged last season to post a 3.70 ERA across 133⅔ innings. Povich was given Morton’s start Tuesday and tossed five hitless innings, better positioning himself for the job. Morton, meanwhile, threw to Orioles hitters on a back field as he prepares for his 17th season.
The right-hander launched his career as a mediocre young pitcher, became a first-time All-Star at 34 years old and is now an age-defying wonder who has outlasted most of his peers. Along the way, he’s been around successful young rosters. He was on the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ last playoff teams in the mid-2010s. He won a World Series with the Houston Astros in 2017, advanced to another one with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 and won his second title with the Atlanta Braves in 2021.
He said these Orioles, a few of whom are nearly half his age, remind him of the Astros teams he played on.
“I think certainly you want to prove yourself on an individual level to other people, to yourself,” Morton said. “But once you start to taste winning and once you start to kind of see that you can be, as a group, better than you, then you kind of build a momentum. And that momentum becomes something that really shapes your identity. And then you start to, as a group, believe in being able to do things that are greater than what you thought you could do maybe at the beginning. I think in Houston we had that.”
The Orioles’ position-player group, while bursting with talent, is not foolproof. Superstar shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who finished fourth in AL MVP voting in his age-23 season in 2024, could miss the start of the season with an intercostal injury. Two-time All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman, the organization’s other cornerstone, is seeking to rebound from a second-half collapse in production. Second baseman Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in baseball a year ago, will look to establish himself after slashing .189/.255/.311 in 60 games as a 20-year-old rookie.
“We have guys that still haven’t reached their upside for me,” Hyde said.
If that happens — if Henderson somehow takes another step, if Rutschman rediscovers his form, if Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, all 26 and under, play to their potential — then the Orioles will be very good. To be great, they’ll need their rotation to exceed expectations.
“We made the playoffs,” first baseman Ryan Mountcastle said of last year’s club, which was swept in the wild-card round by the Kansas City Royals. “That’s always huge. You just got to get there first. It wasn’t the end result we wanted, but I think we’ve learned from it, we’ve grown from it. Hopefully we bring it into this coming year, hopefully make the playoffs again and make a better run.”
The race for the Western Conference’s second wild-card spot is by no means a two-team showdown — but the two teams tied in standings points for that position are squaring off on Thursday.
The Vancouver Canucks — who currently hold the coveted playoff spot, with 75 points and 25 regulation wins in 68 games — will be visiting the St. Louis Blues (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+), who also have 75 points and 25 regulation wins but in 69 games.
So, with apologies to the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club, Thursday night’s clash has become extra pivotal, after the clubs split the first two games of the season series and will not play again.
Looking beyond this game, the Blues play five of their remaining 12 games against current playoff teams; the Canucks have an extra game down the stretch, but they play seven of their final 13 against playoff teams, including five of their final six.
Stathletes likes the Blues’ postseason future a bit more, putting their playoff chances at 56.8%, with the Canucks at 26.3%.
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Thursday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, 8:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, 9 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Wednesday’s scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Minnesota Wild 4, Seattle Kraken 0
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 101.6
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 94.2
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 36.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: @ VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 5.1%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 74.6
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 20
Metro Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118.2
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 25.5%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 23.8%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 12.4%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 77.3
Next game: vs. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Central Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 116.5
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 108.9
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 101.0
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 98.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 92.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 56.8%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 8.6%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 71.0
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 59.1
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 3
Pacific Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 101.3
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90.4
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 26.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 16.5%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
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