Connect with us

Published

on

The geezers are coming! The geezers are coming! 

Demographic doomsayers warn slowing birth rates and graying populations will wreak economic havoc and torpedo stocks.

Yet the dire scenarios of zombie-like boomer hoards leeching off their working progeny have it backwards: Aging populations are always, everywhere signs of progress not threats to it.

Yes America, like most developed nations, is aging. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates 9.8% of US residents were 65 or older in 1970. At the start of 2023, it was 17.3%.

In 2000, there were 20.9 folks aged 65 and older for every 100 working age counterparts (What is called the OADR or Old Age Dependency Ratio). Now there are 30.4, and the OECD projects it will top 40 by 2050.

The trend will continue to be a major theme this century, with the Census Bureau projecting Americas agedness will peak about 2080. What to do? Invest in adult diapers? 

No. Celebrate.

Every major economy ages as it prospers.

Living standards increase and lifespans follow. Birth rates fall alongside infant mortality. American males born in 1900 on average lived to 46 and females to 48. Now, its 73 for males, 79 for females.

Tremendous advances in healthcare have given us extra fruitful and productive yearsin the US, Europe, everywhere.

Mick Jagger turned 80 before the Stones play MetLife Stadium this May. AARP sponsors that tour not a joke! But boomers aplenty will splurge big-time for tickets.

Want good demographics instead? Careful what you ask for. Nations with low agedness (hence low OADRs) near-consistently suffer poverty, short lifespans, high infant mortality, wretched economies, markets, ecologies, and lifestyles.

Still, demographics arent destiny. Innovation is. History shows agedness doesnt impede growth or stocks. In 1982, Americas OADR was 20. Weve since thrived, not dived. GDP tripled. The S&P 500 returned 11.8% annualized since then.

Yes, periodic recessions and bear markets strucklike always, everywhere. But growth continued and stocks climbed.

Doomers envision oldsters as penny-pinching parasites. Growth killers! Wrong. In 1984, Americans 75 and older spent just half what those 25 to 34 did. By 2023, that leapt to nearly 80%. Again, innovation-derived prosperity rules. Longer lifespans and increased retirement ages mean oldsters earnand spendmore. Yes, the 75-plus crowd only spends 59% of what 45 to 54 do (Americas highest spending bracket). But thats well above 1984s 39%.

We geezers invest, funding capitalisms growthy magic. We give to descendants who spend. Many of us work into our 80s. (Im 73no retirement in sight.) Like legendary financier Bernard Baruch once famously said: To me old age is always 15 years older than I am. 

Age isnt the detriment it was when Baruch was born in 1870. There are now fewer physically demanding and risky agricultural and factory jobs, and more services and information-related work.

Accumulated experience and technology can make oldsters increasingly productive, not less so. (Yes, I know President Biden cant string coherent sentences together consistently and dementia hits many all part of the stats).

Demo-doomsters also erroneously extrapolate recent trends. Who really knows if developed world birthrates keep falling? Or how immigration shifts skilled workers around? Or what efficiencies new innovations bring?

Stocks? They price factors impacting firms profitability three to 30-ish months out. Not further. Demographic trends evolve glacially over decades, giving markets eons to adapt.

So let the demo-doomers keep talking. They are only bricking up the wall of worry driving this bull market higher.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

Continue Reading

UK

Fourteen children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter over Gateshead fire released on bail

Published

on

By

Fourteen children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter over Gateshead fire released on bail

All 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter after a boy died in a fire have been released on police bail, officers said.

Layton Carr, 14, was found dead near the site of a fire at Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area of Gateshead on Friday.

Northumbria Police said on Saturday that they had arrested 11 boys and three girls in connection with the incident.

In an update on Sunday, a Northumbria Police spokesman said: “All those arrested have since been released on police bail pending further inquiries.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Teenager dies in industrial estate fire

Firefighters raced to the industrial site shortly after 8pm on Friday, putting out the blaze a short time later.

Police then issued an appeal for Carr, who was believed to be in the area at that time.

In a statement on Saturday, the force said that “sadly, following searches, a body believed to be that of 14-year-old Layton Carr was located deceased inside the building”.

More on Northumbria

David Thompson, headteacher of Hebburn Comprehensive School, where Layton was a pupil, said the school community was “heartbroken”.

Mr Thompson described him as a “valued and much-loved member of Year 9” and said he would be “greatly missed by everyone”.

He added that the school’s “sincere condolences” were with Layton’s family and that the community would “rally together to support one another through this tragedy”.

A fundraising page on GoFundMe has been set up to help Layton’s mother pay for funeral costs.

Pic: Gofundme
Image:
Pic: Gofundme

Organiser Stephanie Simpson said: “The last thing Georgia needs to stress trying to pay for a funeral for her Boy Any donations will help thank you.”

One tribute in a Facebook post read: “Can’t believe I’m writing this my nephew RIP Layton 💔 forever 14 you’ll be a massive miss, thinking of my sister and 2 beautiful nieces right now.”

Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, of Northumbria Police, also said: “This is an extremely tragic incident where a boy has sadly lost his life.”

She added that the force’s “thoughts are with Layton’s family as they begin to attempt to process the loss of their loved one”.

They are working to establish “the full circumstances surrounding the incident” and officers will be in the area to “offer reassurance to the public”, she added.

A cordon remains in place at the site while police carry out enquiries.

Continue Reading

UK

Football bodies could be forced to pay towards brain injury care costs of ex-players

Published

on

By

Football bodies could be forced to pay towards brain injury care costs of ex-players

Football bodies could be forced to pay towards the care costs of ex-players who have been diagnosed with brain conditions, under proposals set to be considered by MPs.

Campaigners are drafting amendments to the Football Governance Bill, which would treat conditions caused by heading balls as an “industrial injuries issue”.

The proposals seek to require the football industry to provide the necessary financial support.

Campaigners say existing support is not fit for purpose, including the Brain Health Fund which was set up with an initial £1m by the Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA), supported by the Premier League.

But the Premier League said the fund has supported 121 families with at-home adaptations and care home fees.

From England‘s 1966 World Cup-winning team, both Jack and Bobby Charlton died with dementia, as did Martin Peters, Ray Wilson and Nobby Stiles.

Neil Ruddock speaks to Sky's Rob Harris outside parliament
Image:
Neil Ruddock speaks to Sky’s Rob Harris outside parliament

Ex-players, including former Liverpool defender Neil Ruddock, went to parliament last week to lobby MPs.

More on Dementia

Ruddock told Sky News he had joined campaigners “for the families who’ve gone through hell”.

“A professional footballer, greatest job in the world, but no one knew the dangers, and that’s scary,” he said.

“Every time someone heads a ball it’s got to be dangerous to you. You know, I used to head 100 balls a day in training. I didn’t realise that might affect my future.”

A study co-funded by the PFA and the Football Association (FA) in 2019 found footballers were three and a half times more likely to die of a neurodegenerative disease than members of the public of the same age.

‘In denial’

Among those calling on football authorities to contribute towards the care costs of ex-players who have gone on to develop conditions such as Alzheimer’s and dementia is Labour MP Chris Evans.

Mr Evans, who represents Caerphilly in South Wales, hopes to amend the Bill to establish a care and financial support scheme for ex-footballers and told a recent event in parliament that affected ex-players “deserve to be compensated”.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who helped to draft the amendment, said the game was “in denial about the whole thing”.

Mr Burnham called for it to be seen as “an industrial injuries issue in the same way with mining”.

In January, David Beckham lent his support to calls for greater support for footballers affected by dementia.

One of the amendments says that “the industry rather than the public should bear the financial burden”.

Read more from Sky News:
Woman missing for more than 60 years found ‘alive and well’
Meghan posts new photo of Prince Harry amid backlash

A spokesperson for the FA said it was taking a “leading role in reviewing and improving the safety of our game” and that it had “already taken many proactive steps to review and address potential risk factors”.

An English Football League spokesperson said it was “working closely with other football bodies” to ensure both professional and grassroots football are “as safe as it can be”.

The PFA and Premier League declined to comment.

Continue Reading

UK

Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

Published

on

By

Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

These are two separate and unrelated investigations by counter-terror officers.

But the common thread is nationality – seven out of the eight people arrested are Iranian.

And that comes in the context of increased warnings from government and the security services about Iranian activity on British soil.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Counter terror officers raid property

Last year, the director general of MI5, Ken McCallum, said his organisation and police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since January 2022.

He linked that increase to the ongoing situation in Iran’s own backyard.

“As events unfold in the Middle East, we will give our fullest attention to the risk of an increase in – or a broadening of – Iranian state aggression in the UK,” he said.

The implication is that even as Iran grapples with a rapidly changing situation in its own region, having seen its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, decimated and itself coming under Israeli attack, it may seek avenues further abroad.

More on Iran

The government reiterated this warning only a few weeks ago, with security minister Dan Jarvis addressing parliament.

“The threat from Iran sits in a wider context of the growing, diversifying and evolving threat that the UK faces from malign activity by a number of states,” Jarvis said.

“The threat from states has become increasingly interconnected in nature, blurring the lines between: domestic and international; online and offline; and states and their proxies.

“Turning specifically to Iran, the regime has become increasingly emboldened, asserting itself more aggressively to advance their objectives and undermine ours.”

Read more:
Anybody working for Iran in UK must register or face jail, government announces

As part of that address, Jarvis highlighted the National Security Act 2023, which “criminalises assisting a foreign intelligence service”, among other things.

So it was notable that this was the act used in one of this weekend’s investigations.

The suspects were detained under section 27 of the same act, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.

Those powers are apparently being put to use.

Continue Reading

Trending