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While Michigan fans are still basking in the glory of the Wolverines’ national championship, the rest of the college football world is left to look ahead to next season.

We’ve already gazed into a crystal ball for our Way-Too-Early Top 25 and Way-Too-Early All-America team. Now we’re looking more specifically at what we’re most excited to see once the teams take the field in 2024.

ESPN’s college football reporters weigh in on the games they’re most excited to see, the freshmen or transfers who could make a major impact and the teams they think might be ready to take a significant step forward.

What game on next season’s schedule are you most looking forward to?

Miami at Florida, Aug. 31

Though this in-state rivalry game may not have national championship implications right out of the gate, this is a huge game for both programs and head coaches. Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier each head into critical Year 3 seasons with fan bases that are eager for results. Interestingly enough, they have nearly identical records in their first two seasons — Cristobal 12-13 as the hometown hero tasked with bringing Miami back, Napier 11-14 facing the hardest schedule in the nation. What happens in this game will set the narrative and tone for what is to come at both schools. — Andrea Adelson

Texas at Michigan, Sept. 7

While the defending national champions will be undergoing a significant transition — most notably with Jim Harbaugh off to the NFL — Texas should be rocking and rolling heading into 2024 with a trip to Ann Arbor on the docket in Week 2, the programs’ first meeting since the 2005 Rose Bowl. With his team a play away from playing for the national title last season, Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers surely will be on many preseason Heisman lists, and the Wolverines get the early-season litmus test they haven’t dealt with in the past. — Blake Baumgartner

Georgia at Alabama, Sept. 28

Kalen DeBoer was already on the clock the minute the Alabama plane touched down in Tuscaloosa after he was announced as Nick Saban’s replacement. As the late Keith Jackson would say, “Whoa Nellie!” DeBoer understands exactly what he’s walking into, but it will get real (almost surreal) when Kirby Smart and Georgia come to town in Week 4. It will be only the fifth time in the past 20 years the two SEC powerhouses have played in the regular season. Five of their past six meetings have come in either the SEC championship game or the CFP National Championship game. Saban was 5-1 in those games, but will be watching from the stands in this one. — Chris Low

Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12

It’s probably no coincidence that the Buckeyes decided to go all in on the transfer portal shortly after rival Michigan ended its 26-year drought without a national title. By adding Alabama safety Caleb Downs, Kansas State quarterback Will Howard, Ole Miss tailback Quinshon Judkins and other impact players, the Buckeyes might be the team to beat in the newly expanded Big Ten. The Ducks will have something to say about it, however, after adding former Oklahoma starter Dillon Gabriel to replace record-setting quarterback Bo Nix. A long trip to Eugene won’t be easy for the Buckeyes, especially after facing Iowa’s stout defense the week before. — Mark Schlabach

Georgia at Texas, Oct. 19

Georgia likely will enter the season at No. 1 with an excellent chance to win its third national title in four seasons after claiming none between 1980 and 2021. A midseason trip to Austin will tell a lot, though, especially if Texas can build on its breakthrough 2023 season with quarterback Quinn Ewers back alongside several key transfer portal additions. The teams have met only once, at a neutral site in 1958 at Texas’ Memorial Stadium, but these types of clashes will be more common in the new-look SEC. — Adam Rittenberg

Florida State at Notre Dame, Nov. 9

This game will have playoff implications for both programs, but particularly Notre Dame, which can only earn a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff through an at-large bid. (Only the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot.) The Irish could get a significant boost to their résumé if they can claim a win against the potential ACC champs. If FSU finishes as a one-loss or undefeated conference champion, a road win against a ranked Notre Dame team could boost its seeding in the 12-team field. — Heather Dinich

Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 31

No one knows what this game will look like by the time it comes around. With Harbaugh gone, will offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, who was the interim coach against Ohio State this past season for the Wolverines, be the head coach? We don’t know who Michigan’s replacement at quarterback will be for the outgoing J.J. McCarthy. We do know that Ohio State has loaded up in the transfer portal and added a lot of talent. This game is always interesting, but this season will have new storylines to watch and could have a ton of ramifications. — Tom VanHaaren

Utah at Oklahoma State, date TBD

Consider this one a placeholder. The Big 12 has long been a conference of tight games and wild finishes — I always joke that every game is decided by three points, and it’s only so much of a joke — and it just traded its two blue-blood programs for four teams that, with the right breaks this year, could be equal to everyone else, no better or worse. We could get even closer to “every game is decided by three points” becoming a reality, in other words. There might not be a national title contender in this conference, but it’s going to be a nonstop ride of fun games. — Bill Connelly


Which true freshman or transfer are you most excited to see?

Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State

With Marvin Harrison Jr. likely a top-five NFL draft selection come April after three very successful seasons in Columbus, there’s a significant void to fill at the wide receiver factory that exists at Ohio State. Enter five-star receiver Jeremiah Smith, the second-best receiver in the recruiting cycle. Smith (No. 7 overall in 2024) caught 90 passes for 1,389 yards and 19 touchdowns as a senior for Florida high school power Chaminade-Madonna Prep, and he should provide an immediate impact for Ryan Day and Kansas State import Will Howard. — Baumgartner

Dylan Raiola at Nebraska

The five-star quarterback from Buford, Georgia, stunned a lot of folks when he flipped from his longtime commitment to Georgia to sign with Nebraska, his father Dominic’s alma mater, shortly before national signing day. There is a strong family connection to the Cornhuskers; Raiola’s uncle Donovan is the team’s offensive line coach. Raiola was looking for immediate playing time as a freshman, and he might be able to find it with the Cornhuskers. In 2023, Nebraska ranked next-to-last in the Big Ten in passing (only Iowa was worse) with 135.9 yards per game. — Schlabach

Dillon Gabriel at Oregon

Quarterback free agency in college football has never been hotter. Oregon hit it just right with Bo Nix the past two seasons, and now it’s Gabriel’s turn to take his shot at piloting the Ducks’ offense. This will be Gabriel’s third stop after starting his career at UCF and playing the past two seasons at Oklahoma. There’s not much Gabriel hasn’t seen. He’s entering his sixth season of college football and has thrown 25 or more touchdown passes in four of his previous five seasons. He also rushed for 12 touchdowns a year ago. He has been tutored by Josh Heupel and Jeff Lebby and is the kind of experienced playmaker the Ducks need at quarterback as they transition to the Big Ten. — Low

DJ Uiagalelei at Florida State

It feels strange even typing DJU and Florida State in the same sentence, considering the path he has traveled to get to Tallahassee. One of the most highly touted quarterbacks in the nation out of high school, Uiagalelei started his career at Clemson, where he struggled for two seasons as the starter, then sought a fresh start at Oregon State. After a solid 2023 season, Uiagalelei decided to transfer once again — this time to Clemson’s ACC nemesis. Will he handle the pressure that comes with the spotlight at Florida State any better than he did at Clemson? Time will tell. Mark an X on Oct. 5 in your calendar; that’s the date Clemson comes to Doak Campbell Stadium. — Adelson

Caleb Downs at Ohio State

The Buckeyes were able to get Downs, who was arguably the best transfer player this offseason. He was the first true freshman at Alabama to lead the team in total tackles with 107. Coordinator Jim Knowles has improved this Ohio State defense in two seasons, but adding Downs will push the group up another level. Downs should be an instant impact player who could help Ohio State compete for a national championship when combined with everyone else the Buckeyes have returning on defense for the 2024 season. — VanHaaren

Malachi Nelson at Boise State

Nelson’s situation stands out for a number of reasons. Most No. 1 overall recruits, especially quarterbacks, would appear in more than one game and log more than three pass attempts in their freshman season. Should they choose to transfer, they often would pick a similar type of program or at least one in a power conference. But Nelson is headed to Boise State, which comes off a surprise Mountain West title run, returns key players such as running back Ashton Jeanty, and may be poised to reclaim its place as the nation’s elite Group of 5 program — just in time for the expanded CFP. Nelson’s evolution on the blue turf will be fascinating to watch. — Rittenberg

Cam Ward at Miami

I think I’m most excited about the uncertainty here — I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Ward, who was beautifully prolific at Incarnate Word, then tantalizing but inconsistent in two years at Washington State. Ward seemed to want to go pro, declaring for the draft but apparently not getting the draft grade he was looking for, and that could make him particularly hungry for a big year. He’s a pretty accurate passer with a scrambling streak. Can he unlock what has been a very frustrating Miami offense? Or will he frustrate too? — Connelly


What team are you most interested in seeing if it can take a big step forward?

Ole Miss

The Rebels finished 11-2 with losses to Georgia and Alabama in 2023. So the big step here is trying to compete with those two and trying to get to the SEC championship game. The offense returns a ton of production, including quarterback Jaxson Dart. But the coaches have completely retooled the defense, which was the area that needed improvement. Lane Kiffin and Pete Golding added Texas A&M defensive tackle Walter Nolen, Florida edge Princely Umanmielen, Oklahoma safety Key Lawrence, Arkansas linebacker Chris Paul Jr., Indiana safety Louis Moore, Tennessee corner Brandon Turnage, Michigan corner Amorion Walker and Alabama corner Trey Amos. That team, with those additions, should be in line for another great season as one of the elite teams in the country. — VanHaaren

Syracuse

The Orange have won 10 games in a season exactly once in the past 22 years, going 10-3 under Dino Babers in 2018. Babers couldn’t sustain that success and was fired after his teams produced one winning season in the past five. The Orange took a gamble on former Georgia defensive backs coach Fran Brown, who is a top-notch recruiter but has never been a head coach. He landed former Ohio State starter Kyle McCord out of the transfer portal. The Orange don’t play ACC foes Clemson, Florida State or North Carolina during the regular season, and they play Virginia Tech, Miami, Stanford and Georgia Tech at home. There’s a chance for improvement in Brown’s first season. — Schlabach

Michigan State

Given what Jonathan Smith did at Oregon State and the decision to leave his alma mater to coach in the newly loaded Big Ten, it will be interesting to see if he can get Michigan State back on track after the Mel Tucker era ended in disgrace. The entire quarterback room transferred out following a tumultuous 4-8 campaign. Aidan Chiles joined Smith from Corvallis and should be given the keys to the Spartans’ offense after seeing limited time as DJ Uiagalelei’s backup (309 passing yards, 79 rushing yards and seven total TDs in nine games). The Spartans’ offense needs a jolt in the worst way after finishing 125th in FBS in total offense (289.3 YPG) and 96th nationally in passing (199.8 YPG). With in-state rival Michigan still reveling in its first national title since 1997, Michigan State can’t fall too far behind. Smith’s track record suggests he may be up for the task. — Baumgartner

Utah

It’s a credit to Kyle Whittingham and his entire Utah program that an 8-5 record is seen as a “down” season. But the Utes lost four conference games for the first time since 2017 and lost four of their last six games to end the season. That’s after winning back-to-back Pac-12 championships. As they transition to the Big 12 in 2024, don’t be surprised if the Utes are right there at the top challenging for the title. That’s significant, too, because the Big 12 champion gets an automatic berth into the new 12-team playoff, and potentially a top-four seed and a first-round bye. Some of the best news for Utah is that star quarterback Cam Rising will be back after missing all of last season with a knee injury, and the Utes have also filled some key holes in the transfer portal. — Low

Baylor

It would seem as though the only direction to go is up for the Bears. Baylor struggled on both sides of the ball last year, but with the hire of proven offensive coordinator Jake Spavital — along with coach Dave Aranda returning to defensive playcalling duties — there should be noticeable improvements. The offensive line was extremely young last season, which should start to pay off soon. The pressure is on Aranda after a 3-9 finish last year that included just one win at home (vs. Long Island University). — Dinich

USC

The Trojans were the nation’s most disappointing team in 2023, going from preseason No. 6 to five losses, two more than any previous Lincoln Riley-coached team. Riley now leads USC into the Big Ten, which will bring different challenges and opportunities. There will be less national hype around USC and its quarterback, Miller Moss, entering the fall, but the Trojans have a chance to be a more balanced and better team. The defense will be particularly interesting to watch after Riley overhauled the coaching staff, with the group now led by D’Anton Lynn. One way or another, Riley’s third USC team will set the trajectory for the program under his leadership. — Rittenberg

SMU

When quarterback Preston Stone got hurt late in the season, the Mustangs had won eight games in a row by an average score of 46-17. Thanks to a dramatically improved defense, they managed to beat Tulane on the road to win the AAC championship game without Stone, before finishing the season with a dreary performance in dreary conditions against Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. But with Stone back, and with head coach Rhett Lashlee thus far holding on to dynamite defensive coordinator Scott Symons (and adding another round of fun transfers), SMU enters the ACC with one of the highest ceilings in its new conference. — Connelly

Virginia Tech

The Hokies last played for an ACC championship in 2016, and last won a conference title in 2010 — a long streak considering the heyday of the program under Frank Beamer. This upcoming season could be their best chance to elevate the program back to Top 25 status and championship contender. Coming off a 7-6 season, Virginia Tech returns nearly every key offensive contributor off a team that got better as 2023 progressed. Quarterback Kyron Drones is a star in the making as a passer and rusher, while running back Bhayshul Tuten and top receivers Da’Quan Felton, Stephen Gosnell, Jaylin Lane and Ali Jennings are back. — Adelson

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Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates

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Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates

No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.

In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.

Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.

In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!

The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?

Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains

When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.

These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.

In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:

2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)

2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)

From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”

Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.

This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.


2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)

Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”

Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.


2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)

2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)

2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)

From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”

Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.

I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.


2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)

From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”

Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.


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Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’

Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.

2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)

From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”

This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!

With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.


2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)

From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”

It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.

Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble

In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.

Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:

2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)

2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)

From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”

Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.


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FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab

Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.

2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)

Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”

This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.


2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)

From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”

Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.


2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)

From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”

The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.

I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.


2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)

Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”

In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.

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‘Just a top-shelf human being’: Teammates, opponents remember Ryne Sandberg

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'Just a top-shelf human being': Teammates, opponents remember Ryne Sandberg

Chicago Cubs Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg died on Monday at age 65. Sandberg, known for his power, speed and defensive prowess during his 16-year major league career, was the face of the Cubs during his 15 seasons with the franchise and a fan favorite throughout the sport.

Originally diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January of 2024, Sandberg was still around the Cubs as recently as spring training — and just as he did in his playing days, he made his presence felt with his signature combination of power and grace.

As the baseball world mourns the loss of an icon, those who knew Sandberg best shared their favorite stories about the Hall of Famer.


‘Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m.’

Sandberg was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Cubs in January 1982 after struggling during his first call-up in Philly. A legendarily hard worker, Sandberg was willing to do whatever it took to make sure his stay in Chicago would go differently.

Larry Bowa, who was dealt along with Sandberg in the trade for veteran infielder Ivan DeJesus, remembers the hours Sandberg put in as he transformed from a light-hitting rookie in Philadelphia to a budding superstar in Chicago.

“I think about how he handled himself when he first got called up. He struggled out of the gate. I watched this guy not let it affect him. It might have affected him on the inside, but the way he handled himself on the outside was great,” Bowa said.

“Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m. [Manager] Jim Frey would tell him [to] hit every ball over the tarp and into the seats down the left-field line in foul territory. Hit it with authority over that tarp. Ryno looked at him like he was crazy. ‘I want every ball with authority over that tarp,’ Frey kept telling him. He did it for a week straight. That’s how he learned how to pull the ball.”


‘Just ungodly consistent’

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How Ryne Sandberg will be remembered in Chicago

Jesse Rogers reflects on Ryne Sandberg’s career in Chicago after he died on Monday at the age of 65.

After his power stroke clicked, it didn’t take long for Sandberg to take his game to the highest level. He was named National League MVP in 1984 after hitting .314 with 19 home runs and 19 triples, stealing 32 bases and leading the Cubs to their first postseason appearance in 39 years.

Perhaps no one had a better view for Sandberg’s dominant campaign than his close friend, Cubs leadoff hitter Bobby Dernier. The two batted 1-2 in the Chicago lineup and earned the nickname “The Daily Double” as they combined to score 208 runs that season.

“Just ungodly consistent,” Dernier said of what made Sandberg so great. “And the style of game back then demanded a little bit of baserunning prowess and being capable of stealing bases and scoring a lot of runs. And so that was our style. He was tremendous.

“Pitchers were always paying a little more attention to me on the bases than him at the plate, and that was a big mistake and he’d take full advantage. He’d almost giggle about it, is what I remember in the dugout.”

Sandberg cemented his legacy during that season with a signature game against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 23, forever known in Chicago as “The Sandberg Game.” He hit two game-tying home runs off Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter in the ninth and 10th innings before the Cubs won the game in the 11th — in front of a national TV audience.

“After he tied it up, I ended up hitting the ball off the wall, but if mine goes out, it’s probably never called the Sandberg game,” outfielder Gary Matthews said with a laugh. “He was great at everything that he did. I hit behind him and he was always on base.”


‘He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark’

Sandberg hit 282 career home runs during an era of baseball where second baseman weren’t known for that kind of power, but he was more than just a long ball threat. Six of those home runs — the second most off an opposing pitcher — were hit off Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who recalled one memorable afternoon for Sandberg.

“I gave up two home runs to him in a game and I had a [autograph] card show after the game and everyone in the world knew I gave up two home runs to Ryne Sandberg,” Smoltz said. “One was an inside-the-park home run. Those fans at the card show reminded me of that.

“He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark. He had a flatter swing that worked great for the angles at Wrigley Field, especially when the wind was blowing in.”

Sandberg was more than just an offensive threat; he also won nine consecutive Gold Glove awards during his time with the Cubs and posted a 123-game errorless streak.

“I used to tell Joe Morgan, ‘This guy doesn’t have to take a second seat to anybody on defense,'” Matthews said. “Morgan would say Ryne’s uniform was always clean. I said, ‘Well, you have to dive because you can’t get in front of it! Don’t get on him for perfecting the backhand.’ In the end Joe said, ‘You’re right.'”


‘He’s in a class by himself’

For all of his accomplishments on the field, the way Sandberg handled himself as a competitor and away from the game is what many who knew him best will remember about him.

“He’s an outstanding human being,” Bowa said. “That’s what I think of. Such a good family guy. His mental toughness is off the charts. Don’t let people deceive you by that little laugh he has all the time. He wanted to win as much as anybody. I’ve been around Pete Rose, and Ryno is right there.”

Smoltz added: “He’s in a class by himself. You would never know he was one of the greatest players ever, just by the way he carried himself and the ‘aw, shucks’ type attitude.

“I love competing against greatness that has integrity and character like Ryne Sandberg had. The way he carried himself, the way he was as a person is what I think about. It sure was nice to see him represent the sport and the city he played for.”

“Joy,” Dernier said. “That’s the first thing, and way so many more happiness types of stories. And it’s a grin on my face to think about him. And yeah, right now it’s melancholy that we know he’s gotten called up to the real big leagues. But I’m glad I knew him and I loved him being underestimated.”


‘Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball’

Of course, there were a few moments in Sandberg’s career where he wasn’t as gracious. In the Cubs clubhouse, teammates saw a different side of the Hall of Famer — a playful troublemaker and prankster.

“We had those chairs directors they use making movies, held together by sticks,” Matthews said. “Ryno would always take the sticks out, put the seat back in, and daily I’d fall to the ground. He’d be over there snickering or walking away.

“Or he would load your cigarette up and make it explode in a non-harmful way. Then when you figured it out, he would put two of those in the pack. He thought that was the funniest thing.”

Despite that kind of back-and-forth, Matthews and Sandberg often golfed together.

“I would ask for a few strokes,” Matthews said. “He would politely say, ‘no strokes, play better.’ He would hit some balls you couldn’t believe. Ball after ball. He would hit one and know it’s a good one but he’d ask, ‘Do you think that was any good?’ And just smile at me.

“Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball,” Matthews said with a laugh.

“He’d stir the pot and then walk away and look over his shoulder,” Bowa added. “He’d be cracking up after getting us going. He was so quiet outwardly with you guys [media], but not with us.”


‘He made such an impact on me ‘

After his playing days, Sandberg served as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies from 2013 to 2015 before returning to Chicago, often putting on a uniform as a spring instructor and imparting the lessons from his Hall of Fame career to a new generation of Cubs.

“I just think it’s cool that he’s somebody that has kind of done everything in our sport but still doesn’t approach the game with any kind of ego,” current Chicago second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “He doesn’t talk like he has the answers to everything or the conversation is never about him.

“He’s kind of softspoken, but then if you got him going on something he really cared about, it’s really cool to hear him open up, whether it’s routines he had or how he took care of his body or just fun memories with teammates or playing at Wrigley.”

Shortstop Dansby Swanson added: “Just such a top-shelf human being. He made such an impact on me even in my short time of being able to be around him. Just an unbelievable human being and someone that I’m very, very grateful to have met and spent time with, whether it’s talking about life or talking about ball.”

It’s those attributes, the ones the baseball world got to see on the field and the ones only his teammates were able to witness, that were missed in retirement. But his attitude about life stands out for everyone.

“We talked about a lot of things, about defense and offense, but we talked about life, too,” rookie third baseman Matt Shaw said. “When he first came up, he struggled a little bit early on and he was like, ‘No matter what happens, you just got to keep believing in yourself and keep going.’ And I definitely take that to heart, and that’s something that I definitely think about a lot — is that belief to just to keep going.”

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Cubs Hall of Famer Sandberg dies at age 65

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Cubs Hall of Famer Sandberg dies at age 65

CHICAGO — Ryne Sandberg, a Hall of Fame second baseman who became one of baseball’s best all-around players while starring for the Chicago Cubs died Monday at age 65.

Sandberg was surrounded by his family when he died at his home, according to the team.

Sandberg announced in January 2024 that he was diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer. He had chemotherapy and radiation treatments, and then said in August 2024 that he was cancer-free.

But he posted on Instagram on Dec. 10 that his cancer had returned and spread to other organs. He announced this month that he was still fighting, while “looking forward to making the most of every day with my loving family and friends.”

Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts said Sandberg “will be remembered as one of the all-time greats in nearly 150 years of this historic franchise.”

“His dedication to and respect for the game, along with his unrelenting integrity, grit, hustle, and competitive fire were hallmarks of his career,” Ricketts said in the team’s statement.

The Cubs said they would wear a special jersey patch to commemorate Sandberg for the rest of the season.

Sandberg was born and raised in Spokane, Washington. He was selected out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 20th round of the 1978 amateur draft.

He made his major league debut in 1981 and went 1-for-6 in 13 games with the Phillies. In January 1982, he was traded to Chicago with Larry Bowa for veteran infielder Ivan De Jesus.

It turned into one of the most lopsided deals in baseball history.

Sandberg hit .285 with 282 homers, 1,061 RBIs and 344 steals in 15 years with Chicago. He made 10 All-Star teams — winning the Home Run Derby in 1990 — and collected nine Gold Gloves.

“Ryne Sandberg was a legend of the Chicago Cubs franchise and a beloved figure throughout Major League Baseball,” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said. “He was a five-tool player who excelled in every facet of the game thanks to his power, speed and work ethic.”

Even with Sandberg’s stellar play, the Cubs made only two postseason appearances in his time there.

He was the National League MVP in 1984, batting .314 with 19 homers, 84 RBIs, 32 steals, 19 triples and 114 runs scored. Chicago won the NL East and Sandberg hit .368 (7-for-19) in the playoffs, but the Cubs were eliminated by San Diego after winning the first two games of the NL Championship Series at Wrigley Field.

The 1984 season featured what Cubs fans still call “The Sandberg Game,” when he homered twice and drove in seven runs in a 12-11 victory over St. Louis in 11 innings on June 23.

The Cubs paid tribute to Sandberg and that game when they unveiled a statue of the infielder outside Wrigley Field on that date in 2024.

“He was a superhero in this city,” Jed Hoyer, Cubs president of baseball operations, said during a TV broadcast of the team’s game on July 20. “You think about [Michael] Jordan, Walter Payton and Ryne Sandberg all here at the same time, and I can’t imagine a person handling their fame better, their responsibility for a city better than he did.”

Sandberg led Chicago back to the playoffs in 1989, hitting .290 with 30 homers as the Cubs won the NL East. He batted .400 (8-for-20) in the NLCS, but Chicago lost to San Francisco in five games.

Sandberg set a career high with an NL-best 40 homers in 1990 and drove in a career-best 100 runs in 1990 and 1991, but he never made it back to the postseason. He retired after the 1997 season.

“When you examine the offense and defense, you’ll find some years where he was the best player you’ve ever seen in your life,” former Cubs first baseman Mark Grace said.

Sandberg was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2005, receiving 76.2% of the vote by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in his third year on the ballot. The Cubs retired his No. 23 that same season.

“Ryne Sandberg had a relentless work ethic and an unshakable positive outlook,” Hall of Fame chair Jane Forbes Clark said. “With it, he inspired all those who knew him.”

Sandberg also managed the Phillies from August 2013 to June 2015, going 119-159. He got the interim job when Charlie Manuel was fired, and he resigned with the Phillies in the middle of a difficult 2015 season.

Sandberg is survived by his wife, Margaret; his children, Justin, Lindsey, Steven, BR and Adriane; and 11 grandchildren.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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