Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay
SUIXI, CHINA – DECEMBER 30: An employee works on the production line of aluminum foil at a workshop of Anhui Limu New Material Technology Co., Ltd on December 30, 2023 in Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province of China. (Photo by Li Xin/VCG via Getty Images)
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.
“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,'” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.
A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.
“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”
“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.
The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected.
Paul Bloxham
HSBC chief economist
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.
“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.
Lack of investments
The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.
However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.
As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.
At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition.
“Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials,” the report said.
Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report.
Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same.
Brian Luke
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC’s Bloxham said, adding that “for any given amount of demand,” it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past.
“That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment.”
Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added.
Iron ore site in Australia.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg via Getty Images
He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it — which would also push commodity prices lower — is a “bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally,” he said.
“Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same,” said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Metals most impacted
Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside.
Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity.
Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton.
“The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low,” said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.
She noted that in spite of China’s property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking.
China, which makes around 55% of the world’s steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 — up 1.4% across the same period in 2022.
What squeeze?
While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still “adequately supplied” for the most part.
“The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there’s not too much concern about supplies,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX.
Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023.
Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help.
“A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year,” said S&P’s Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets.
In a discussion on the increase in crime committed by individuals riding electric motorbikes, the Hampshire Police and Crime Commissioner, Donna Jones, has claimed that a certain style of bike is being used “almost exclusively” for criminal actions.
Jones, a British Conservative Party politician, made the claim in reference to Sur Ron-style electric motorbikes, which resemble something fitting between a small dirt bike and a large electric bicycle.
These vehicles, which can often reach around 50 mph (80 km/h), are technically not electric bicycles but rather small electric motorcycles. They are designed primarily for use on off-road trails and other non-street uses, meaning they are rarely street-legal. However, young riders often use them on streets anyway.
According to the Daily Mail, “The Police and Crime Commissioner claimed the majority of people using these type of e-bikes are ‘doing something wrong’ as she voiced her concerns over the spate of crime gripping Britain.”
Jones says that these electric motorbikes have been used extensively in street crime, usually in the form of phone snatching. Social media is full of videos of pedestrians walking down the street while using their phones and having them grabbed by a rider of a Sur Ron-style electric motorbike.
Scotland Yard has reportedly been in contact with the Chinese company Sur Ron, the manufacturer of many of these electric motorbikes, and the company has apparently vowed to cooperate with police.
Sur-Ron-style electric motorbikes have surged in popularity among young riders in Britain, particularly in urban areas where their lightweight frames, high torque, and near-silent operation make them appealing for both recreation and practical commuting. However, we’ve also seen them become a praised getaway vehicle for criminals, even if Jones’ claim that they are used “almost exclusively” for crime is quite likely an exaggeration based on confirmation bias.
Unlike traditional combustion engine motorcycles, these e-motorbikes can be more easily obtained to be ridden without a license, even if that is not permitted by local laws. Additionally, many are easily modified to exceed UK regulations with higher speed and power than is traditionally permitted.
Their ability to accelerate quickly and maneuver through traffic with ease has also made them a tool of choice for criminal activity, particularly in these types of phone-snatching and ride-by thefts, where offenders use the bikes to evade police and disappear into narrow streets or pedestrian areas.
With police enforcement struggling to keep pace with their widespread, often unregistered use, authorities continue to debate whether tougher restrictions or alternative solutions are needed to curb both their illegal modifications and criminal misuse.
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After dominating in China, BYD is making an aggressive push into Europe. With another EV plant reportedly coming soon, this time in Germany, BYD is taking direct aim at Volkswagen, BMW, and other domestic OEMs.
BYD wants a third EV plant in Europe, likely in Germany
BYD is already quickly expanding its European footprint with two manufacturing plants under construction. One is in Hungary, and the other is in Turkey.
According to a new report, a third could be coming soon. BYD’s executive vice president, Stella Li, recently told German newspaper Automobilwoche that the Chinese EV maker is eyeing another plant, and this time, it could be in Germany, the heart of Europe’s auto industry.
Although Li didn’t offer any other details, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Germany is likely BYD’s best option.
Germany is home to Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and several others, which could lead to a major market shakeup.
BYD has been gaining momentum, with overseas sales surging in the first two months of 2025. In January, the company sold a record 66,336 NEVs overseas. Last month, BYD topped that with just over 67,000 vehicles shipped to overseas markets.
Chinese brands continued gaining traction despite new vehicle registrations falling 2% in Europe in January. With over 37,100 vehicles registered, Chinese brands accounted for 3.7% of the market, up from 2.4% in January 2023.
BYD wants to grow the brand in Europe and connect with local buyers. Although Germany would likely be the best place to do so, high energy costs could be a challenge.
Last Summer, BYD bought out its German distributor, Heden Electric Mobility, giving it more control over pricing and out.put
With the EU imposing new tariffs on EV imports from China, BYD could offset some of the costs through local production. Meanwhile, China has also warned domestic companies not to invest in countries applying additional tariffs.
BYD’s plant in Hungary is scheduled to open in October. The second in Turkey will come online in 2026, and both plants are expected to have a combined annual production capacity of 500,000.
Although BYD is best known for its low-cost electric cars, like the Dolphin and Atto 3, the company is expanding with luxury EVs, pickups, smart SUVs, and supercars now hitting the market.
BYD is aggressively ramping up in the region. According to S&P Global Mobility, BYD’s sales are expected to double in 2025 to 186,000. By 2029, the company is expected to sell around 400,000 vehicles with a full lineup.
No final decision has been made yet, but Li said the third plant could come within the next two years. After overtaking Volkswagen as China’s largest automaker, BYD could set up shop on its home turf. Check back soon for more. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
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We EV enthusiasts have heard it all from the haters before. “What are you gonna do with all those batteries?” “There’s just not enough range,” and, of course, “Charging takes so much longer than a gas station visit.” As previously teased, Chinese auto conglomerate BYD has introduced a new 1,000-volt EV platform that can enable charging rates as fast (or perhaps faster) than a trip to the gas station. We’re talking five minutes.
We got official confirmation from BYD this morning (evening in Shenzen, China) following a report we followed last Friday. On its Weibo page last week, Build Your Dreams (BYD) teased some capabilities of a new EV architecture it calls the “Super E-Platform,” sharing that it will enable charging parity with gas station visits.
To achieve that, BYD promised 1,000 kW charge speeds—double the current industry leaders, including Tesla. In reality, it’s tripling the standard as most fast chargers on the market can only reach about 350 kW, and many of them (in the US, at least) are usually more in the 200s.
While there are some ultra-luxe EV models powered by higher voltage platforms, 800V has been the ceiling for a while, and to be honest, most models today cannot even hit 350 kW. BYD plans to change that with its new “Super E-Platform,” which has officially been unveiled and offers 1,000V and charge rates up to 1,000 kW.
BYD delivers charging speeds similar to gas station visits
As promised last Friday, BYD held a livestream event at its headquarters in Shenzen, China, where it officially unveiled its new 1,000V Super E-Platform, capable of charging 1MW+ (1,000 kW) rates. Per its Weibo post (translated from Chinese):
BYD officially releases flash charging battery with ultra-high voltage of 1000V, ultra-large current of 1000A and ultra-large power of 1000kW, achieving global mass production of megawatt flash charging with the highest peak charging speed of 1 second and 2 kilometers, completely solving users’ charging anxiety when traveling.
As you can see from the images detailing the new platform’s specs above, this is a 1,000-volt, 1,000-amp platform that enables charging up to 400km (249 miles) of range in a mere five minutes. As we pointed out last week, today’s event also marked the launch of BYD’s new Han L and Tang L models in China, which will utilize the new fast-charging platform.
To support future models capable of these industry-leading charging speeds, BYD plans to implement over 4,000 ultra-fast charging stations around China. However, the timeline of that rollout remains unknown to the public. You can watch BYD’s complete live stream, debuting the technology and its capabilities here.
Electrek’s take
While this technology is designed in China, for China (at least for now), BYD’s debut of the Super E-Platform is a momentous day for the EV industry. BYD has developed and delivered platform architecture that is the best in the world on paper and has proven that it is possible to deliver charging speeds that are on par with a trip to the gas station.
Charging times remain a huge hurdle for larger EV adoption, so news like this breaks a ceiling for the current industry and offers a glimpse into the future to a day when more and more electric vehicles can recharge quickly, taking one more argument away from naysayers. Bravo BYD.
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