Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay
SUIXI, CHINA – DECEMBER 30: An employee works on the production line of aluminum foil at a workshop of Anhui Limu New Material Technology Co., Ltd on December 30, 2023 in Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province of China. (Photo by Li Xin/VCG via Getty Images)
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.
“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,'” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.
A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.
“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”
“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.
The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected.
Paul Bloxham
HSBC chief economist
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.
“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.
Lack of investments
The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.
However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.
As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.
At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition.
“Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials,” the report said.
Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report.
Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same.
Brian Luke
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC’s Bloxham said, adding that “for any given amount of demand,” it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past.
“That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment.”
Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added.
Iron ore site in Australia.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg via Getty Images
He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it — which would also push commodity prices lower — is a “bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally,” he said.
“Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same,” said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Metals most impacted
Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside.
Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity.
Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton.
“The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low,” said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.
She noted that in spite of China’s property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking.
China, which makes around 55% of the world’s steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 — up 1.4% across the same period in 2022.
What squeeze?
While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still “adequately supplied” for the most part.
“The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there’s not too much concern about supplies,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX.
Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023.
Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help.
“A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year,” said S&P’s Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets.
Honda’s electric SUV took the US by storm, becoming the top-selling EV in the US outside of Tesla in the final three months of 2024. This year, Honda is making the Prologue even more attractive, upgrading it with over 300 miles of range. With 2025 Prologue models now arriving at dealerships, Honda wasted no time launching new deals this week.
2025 Honda Prologue EV deals and offers
After the first models were delivered last March, the Honda Prologue quickly became one of the best-selling electric vehicles in the US.
In the second half of 2024, the Prologue was the second best-selling electric SUV, trailing only the Tesla Model Y. This year, it boasts even more driving range and power.
Since Honda didn’t raise prices, it’s essentially a free upgrade (well, sort of). The 2025 Honda Prologue (2WD) now has a “top-class” EPA rating of 308 miles, up 12 miles from the outgoing model. It also packs 220 horsepower (+8) and 243 lb-ft of torque (+7).
The Prologue is still available in single-motor (2WD) and dual-motor (AWD) versions in three trims: EX, Touring, and Elite.
The AWD version now has a range of 294 miles (+13) for the EX and Touring trims and 283 miles (+10) for the Elite. It also now packs 300 horsepower (+12) and 355 lb-ft of torque (+25).
With DC fast charging speeds of up to 150 kW, the electric SUV can add 65 miles of range in around 10 minutes.
The 2025 Honda Prologue starts at $47,400, but with the $7,500 EV tax credit, prices could fall to under $40,000. And that’s for the EX single-motor version with up to 308 miles of range.
On Honda’s website, the 2025 Prologue is listed with a promotional rate of 2.99% APR for up to 60 months. Lease prices for the base model are not yet available, but the 2025 AWD EX is listed at $599 for 36 months with $4,299 due at signing.
Although the deals on the 2025 models are not nearly as good as the 0% financing and leases as low as $269 per month for the 2024 Prologue, Honda had to make up for the upgrades somewhere.
| Trim | Drive Configuration | Pricing | EPA Ratings | |||
| MSRP | After Federal EV Tax Credit | Plus $1,450 D&H |
Range Rating | MPGe Rating (City/Hwy/Combined) |
||
| EX | Single Motor (2WD) | $47,400 | $39,900 | $41,350 | 308 | 113 / 94 / 104 |
| EX | Dual Motor (AWD) | $50,400 | $42,900 | $44,350 | 294 | 108 / 90 / 99 |
| Touring | Single Motor (2WD) | $51,700 | $44,200 | $45,650 | 308 | 113 / 94 / 104 |
| Touring | Dual Motor (AWD) | $54,700 | $47,200 | $48,650 | 294 | 108 / 90 / 99 |
| Elite | Dual Motor (AWD) | $57,900 | $50,400 | $51,850 | 283 | 104 / 87 / 95 |
Honda is sweetening the deal with a charging package included in the Prologue’s price. You can choose from a free Level 2 home charger, a portable charging kit, or a $750 public charging credit.
The 2024 Honda Prologue is selling out fast with ultra-low lease and financing rates, while the 2025 model promises even more. Ready to try it out for yourself? You can use our link to find deals on the 2024 and 2025 Honda Prologue in your area today.
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In this photo illustration, the logo for the US tech firm “Block” is displayed and reflected in a number of digital screens on March 03, 2023 in London, England.
Leon Neal | Getty Images
With its stock down more than 30% this year and revenue growth slowing, Jack Dorsey’s Block is going bigger in lending.
The company on Thursday said it secured approval from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to originate loans through its banking subsidiary, Square Financial Services, allowing it to offer small-dollar consumer loans directly rather than relying on external banking partners.
It’s an expansion of Cash App Borrow, the company’s short-term lending product. But it comes at a time of increased concerns surrounding consumer credit, with President Trump’s expansive tariffs and widespread government job cuts raising talk of a potential recession.
Transaction losses in Block’s lending segment jumped 39% last quarter, and while the company claims its underwriting model is strong, small-dollar lending is inherently risky.
“Cash App Borrow is designed to provide short-term cash flow in a simple and accessible way when alternatives are notoriously expensive and difficult for consumers to navigate,” Block said in the press release. The company added that the average Cash App Borrow loan was under $100 and about a month in duration.
Block didn’t immediately provide a comment.
In getting approval to operate the lending business out of its own bank, Block says it will be able to offer the product nationwide.
Last month, Block reported quarterly results that missed Wall Street expectations, with revenue growing just 4.5% from a year earlier. The stock plunged 18%, its worst one-day drop since 2020.
Around the same time, Block rolled out Afterpay, its buy now, pay later product, on the Cash App card. Chief Financial Officer Amrita Ahuja told CNBC that the launch aimed to provide customers with more credit options, and positioned Cash App as a banking alternative for some customers. Block acquired Afterpay, which competes with Affirm, for $29 billion in early 2022.
Also this week, Block announced a big investment plan in artificial intelligence.
The company said on Wednesday that it will deploy Nvidia’s AI systems with its latest Blackwell chips to power open-source AI research. Block didn’t say what specifically it’s looking to achieve through its AI buildout, but noted in the press release that it will “start exploring novel solutions for our customers.”
![Kia's first electric van looks even better in person [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/03/Kias-first-electric-van-PV5-1.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Kia is launching its first electric van, the PV5, later this year. If you liked how it looked in pictures, wait until you see it in real life. A production PV5 was spotted in Korea for the first time, giving us a closer look at the futuristic van. See it for yourself in the video below.
Kia’s first electric van spotted in Korea
After teasing it for what seemed like forever, Kia finally took the sheets off the PV5 at its 2025 EV Day event last month.
With its hard-to-miss futuristic design, the PV5 is a near replica of the concept shown at CES last January. The mid-size electric van is set to kick off Kia’s new Platform Beyond Vehicle (PBV) strategy.
The PV5 will initially be available in Passenger, Cargo, and Chassis Cab setups, but with “unprecedented flexibility,” you can expect to see more options soon. Two of the first will be the PV5 Crew, with additional cargo securing options and a Wheelchair-Accessible Vehicle (WAV) version.
After that, Kia will follow it up with Drop Side, Box Van, Freezer, Box, and Prime variations. It plans to launch a Light Camper conversion.
With sales kicking off in the second half of 2025, Kia’s electric van was spotted in Korea for the first time without camouflage. A new video from HealerTV gives us a better idea of what to expect when the PV5 hits dealerships later this year.
The PV5 maintains its techy, almost ahead-of-its-time design. Two exterior body colors were shown: white and a darker grey or black. As the reporter notes, it actually looks like an upgrade from the concept.
Kia did what it could at the back so it didn’t look like a bus, giving it more of a rounded overall shape. You can see how it stands apart from most MPVs you see today.
Like the Volkswagen ID.Buzz, Kia’s PV5 looks more like a minibus. At 4,695 mm long, 1,895 mm wide, and 1,899 mm tall, Kia’s passenger electric van is slightly smaller than the European ID.Buzz model (4,712 mm long, 1,985 mm wide, 1,937 mm tall).
It will be available with 51.5 kWh and 71.2 kWh battery packs, good for up to 400 km (249 miles) WLTP range. The PV5 can also fast charge (10% to 80%) in about 30 minutes. In comparison, powered by an 84 kWh battery, the ID.Buzz now offers up to 293 miles WLTP range.
Kia will launch sales in Korea and Europe later this year, followed by other global markets in 2026. Pre-orders will open soon, so check back for prices.
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