Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay
SUIXI, CHINA – DECEMBER 30: An employee works on the production line of aluminum foil at a workshop of Anhui Limu New Material Technology Co., Ltd on December 30, 2023 in Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province of China. (Photo by Li Xin/VCG via Getty Images)
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.
“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,'” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.
A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.
“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”
“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.
The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected.
Paul Bloxham
HSBC chief economist
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.
“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.
Lack of investments
The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.
However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.
As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.
At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition.
“Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials,” the report said.
Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report.
Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same.
Brian Luke
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC’s Bloxham said, adding that “for any given amount of demand,” it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past.
“That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment.”
Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added.
Iron ore site in Australia.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg via Getty Images
He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it — which would also push commodity prices lower — is a “bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally,” he said.
“Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same,” said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Metals most impacted
Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside.
Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity.
Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton.
“The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low,” said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.
She noted that in spite of China’s property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking.
China, which makes around 55% of the world’s steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 — up 1.4% across the same period in 2022.
What squeeze?
While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still “adequately supplied” for the most part.
“The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there’s not too much concern about supplies,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX.
Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023.
Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help.
“A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year,” said S&P’s Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets.
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Porsche is rolling out three new Taycan Black Edition models. The 2026 Porsche Taycan Black Edition brings more than just a sporty new look. All three are equipped with Porsche’s Performance Battery Plus, delivering more power and a longer driving range.
Meet the 2026 Porsche Taycan Black Edition
With the new electric Macan stealing the show, Porsche is introducing new Taycan variants for the 2026 model year.
Porsche has already introduced significant upgrades for the 2025 model year, adding more driving range, faster charging, higher performance, and a sleek new design.
The new Black Edition variants will be available for the 2026 Porsche Taycan, Taycan 4, and Taycan 4S models.
Featuring its SportDesign package, the new models include high-gloss black exterior accents on the window trims and mirrors.
Other standard design elements include a rear light strip with an illuminated, blacked-out Porsche logo. Inside, the new variants include Porsche’s black interior accent package, storage package, and black brushed illuminated door sill guards.
All three Black Edition models are equipped with the larger Performance Battery Plus, which is typically offered as an option.
With a gross energy capacity of 105 kWh, Porsche says the new variants offer a longer driving range and more power. The 2025 Taycan, with the Performance Battery Plus pack, offers an EPA-estimated range of 318 miles.
On the European WLTP scale, the 2025 Porsche Taycan with the Performance Plus battery is rated with up to 679 km (421 miles) range.
The new Black Edition models are loaded with added features. Highlights include Lane Change Assist, Surround View, including Active Parking Assist, 21″ wheels with center caps featuring the full-color Porsche crest, and HD-Matrix Design LED headlights. There are even puddle light projectors that show the Porsche logo when the doors open.
On the inside, the premium features continue. The Black Edition interior features 14-way comfort seats with a memory function, a Porsche crest on the headrests, and a BOSE Surround Sound System, including Dolby Atmos, to create an immersive sound experience.
You’ll also get Porsche Electric Sport Sound, a Storage package, and the Porsche crest stitched into the leather trim. To top it off, there’s an added “Black Edition” badge in the center console, exclusive to the new variants.
Although it’s called the Black Edition, you can choose from several different colors, such as Jet Black Metallic, Volcano Grey Metallic, Dolomite Silver Metallic, and Ice Grey Metallic, at no extra cost.
Porsche will reveal prices for the 2026 Taycan Black Edition models “in due course.” Deliveries in the US are expected to begin in Fall 2025.
What do you think of the new blacked-out Taycan variants? Do you dig it? Drop us a comment below and let us know your thoughts.
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Aventon is giving its popular fat tire e-bike a serious upgrade. The company just unveiled the Aventure M, a new mid-drive version of its best-selling Aventure model. With more torque, smarter shifting, and a boost in connectivity and control, Aventon says this is the “most advanced” bike it has ever produced.
The new Aventure M swaps out the rear hub motor for a 100 Nm mid-drive motor, offering more efficient power delivery and a more natural ride feel thanks to its double-sided torque sensor. And in case that 100 Nm doesn’t exactly place it for you, just know that we’re talking about more power (or more accurately, torque) than nearly any other e-bike in this class.
The Aventon A100 motor, which is rated at 750W and runs on a 36V system, takes full advantage of its Class 3 category with pedal assist speeds up to 28 mph (45 km/h) and a throttle top speed of 20 mph (32 km/h). The throttle is sold separately, probably as a nod to being even more compliant with California’s new stricter laws regarding Class 1 and Class 3 e-bikes, which can’t have mounted throttles.
Aventon also gives riders the option to set the bike to Class 1 or 2 limits using the companion app. We’ve always been pretty impressed with Aventon’s app, as it’s quite easy to use and makes it simple to control those types of modifications to the bike.
That app pairs with Aventon’s newly developed ACU (Aventon Control Unit), a custom IoT system that adds a wide range of smart features. Riders get GPS tracking, theft detection, geofencing, remote locking, and over-the-air (OTA) firmware updates. Aventon even built in a passcode-locked on-switch for added security, as well as a physical rear-wheel lock and alarm.
We’ve previously seen Aventon use that OTA update system to give its e-bike more power via a boost feature, so the company doesn’t appear shy about pushing out new features when they’re ready.
But it’s not just about motor placement and connectivity. The Aventure M introduces electronic shifting, powered by a 10-speed Shimano CUES drivetrain and paddle shifters. Riders can shift manually or let the system take over with Auto Shift, Aventon’s torque and cadence-sensing automatic shifting mode. A new Uphill Start Assist feature gives riders an extra torque boost when starting from a stop on steep grades –perfect for off-road adventures or fully loaded cargo rides.
As for range, Aventon claims up to 85 miles (137 km) from the removable 36V 20Ah (720 Wh) battery, which itself weighs around 8.7 lbs (3.9 kg). That figure is in the lowest power level, and real-world range will depend heavily on terrain and assist level, but riders can likely expect something in the 40–60 mile (65-100 km) ballpark under typical pedaling usage when enjoying moderately higher power levels, and a bit less if leaning hard into that optional throttle.
Rounding out the build are 4-inch wide fat tires, a suspension seatpost, and an 80 mm front suspension fork. The total weight of the bike is around 73 lbs (33 kg), which is actually surprisingly reasonable for a full-featured fat tire e-bike with a mid-drive, believe it or not. Hey, these are heavy bikes when you stuff all that power, range, and tech in there.
The price at launch is US $2,899, which places the Aventure M above the hub motor version of the company’s existing Aventure model but below some other mid-drive fat tire options on the market. Aventon is clearly positioning this as a higher-performance alternative that’s still (hopefully) accessible to the average rider. It’s available now online and through Aventon’s network of over 1,800 partner dealers across the U.S.
Electrek’s Take
It’s about time we saw a major direct-to-consumer brand bring a smart tech, mid-drive fat tire e-bike to market that doesn’t require taking out a second mortgage. The Aventure M feels like a natural progression for Aventon – taking what made the Aventure 2 so popular and layering on meaningful performance and tech upgrades. The mid-drive motor brings real climbing power and smoother pedal assist, and features like auto shifting and built-in GPS tracking give this bike some serious smart credentials.
Of course, at nearly $3,000, this isn’t exactly budget territory anymore. But considering the Aventure M includes high-end components, a full-fat-tire adventure build, and an impressive level of integration, it still looks like a solid value for someone who wants their e-bike to go above and beyond the basic level of componentry and features. If the real-world range holds up and the automatic shifting works smoothly, this could easily become a category leader for anyone wanting an all-terrain e-bike that feels as refined as it is rugged. Aventon of course didn’t reinvent the wheel here — they just made a smarter, better one. I look forward to getting on one soon for a review and letting you know what I think of the ride.
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