Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay
SUIXI, CHINA – DECEMBER 30: An employee works on the production line of aluminum foil at a workshop of Anhui Limu New Material Technology Co., Ltd on December 30, 2023 in Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province of China. (Photo by Li Xin/VCG via Getty Images)
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.
“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,'” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.
A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.
“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”
“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.
The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected.
Paul Bloxham
HSBC chief economist
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.
“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.
Lack of investments
The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.
However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.
As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.
At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition.
“Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials,” the report said.
Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report.
Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same.
Brian Luke
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC’s Bloxham said, adding that “for any given amount of demand,” it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past.
“That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment.”
Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added.
Iron ore site in Australia.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg via Getty Images
He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it — which would also push commodity prices lower — is a “bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally,” he said.
“Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same,” said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Metals most impacted
Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside.
Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity.
Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton.
“The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low,” said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.
She noted that in spite of China’s property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking.
China, which makes around 55% of the world’s steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 — up 1.4% across the same period in 2022.
What squeeze?
While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still “adequately supplied” for the most part.
“The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there’s not too much concern about supplies,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX.
Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023.
Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help.
“A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year,” said S&P’s Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets.
Forget fumbling with cables or hunting for batteries – TILER is making electric bike charging as seamless as parking your ride. The Dutch startup recently introduced its much-anticipated TILER Compact system, a plug-and-play wireless charger engineered to transform the user experience for e-bike riders.
At the heart of the new system is a clever combo: a charging kickstand that mounts directly to almost any e‑bike, and a thin charging mat that you simply park over. Once you drop the kickstand and it lands on the mat, the bike begins charging automatically via inductive transfer – no cable required. According to TILER, a 500 Wh battery will fully charge in about 3.5 hours, delivering comparable performance to traditional wired chargers.
It’s an elegantly simple concept (albeit a bit chunky) with a convenient upside: less clutter, fewer broken cables, and no more need to bend over while feeling around for a dark little hole.
TILER claims its system works with about 75% of existing e‑bike platforms, including those from Bosch, Yamaha, Bafang, and other big bames. The kit uses a modest 150 W wireless power output, which means charging speeds remain practical while keeping the system lightweight (the tile weighs just 2 kg, and it’s also stationary).
TILER has already deployed over 200 charging points across Western Europe, primarily serving bike-share, delivery, hospitality, and hotel fleets. A recent case study in Munich showed how a cargo-bike operator saved approximately €1,250 per month in labor costs, avoided thousands in spare batteries, and cut battery damage by 20%. The takeaway? Less maintenance, more uptime.
Now shifting to prosumer markets, TILER says the Compact system will hit pre-orders soon, with a €250 price tag (roughly US $290) for the kickstand plus tile bundle. To get in line, a €29 refundable deposit is currently required, though they say it is refundable at any point until you receive your charger. Don’t get too excited just yet though, there’s a bit of a wait. Deliveries are expected in summer 2026, and for now are covering mostly European markets.
The concept isn’t entirely new. We’ve seen the idea pop up before, including in a patent from BMW for charging electric motorcycles. And the efficacy is there. Skeptics may wonder if wireless charging is slower or less efficient, but TILER says no. Its system retains over 85% efficiency, nearly matching wired charging speeds, and even pauses at 80% to protect battery health, then resumes as needed. The tile is even IP67-rated, safe for outdoor use, and about as bulky as a thick magazine.
Electrek’s Take
I love the concept. It makes perfect sense for shared e-bikes, especially since they’re often returning to a dock anyway. As long as people can be trained to park with the kickstand on the tile, it seems like a no-brainer.
And to be honest, I even like the idea for consumers. I know it sounds like a first-world problem, but bending over to plug something in at floor height is pretty annoying, not to mention a great way to throw out your back if you’re not exactly a spring chicken anymore. Having your e-bike start charging simply by parking it in the right place is a really cool feature! I don’t know if it’s $300 cool, but it’s pretty cool!
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Tesla has launched a new software update for its vehicles that includes the anticipated integration of Grok, but it doesnt even interface with the car yet.
Earlier this week, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla would integrate Grok, the large language model developed by his private company, xAI, into its vehicles.
Today, Tesla started pushing the update to the fleet, but there’s a significant caveat.
The automaker wrote in the release notes (2025.26):
Grok (Beta) (US, AMD)
Grok now available directly in your Tesla
Requires Premium Connectivity or a WiFi connection
Grok is currently in Beta & does not issue commands to your car – existing voice commands remain unchanged.
First off, it is only available in vehicles in the US equipped with the AMD infotainment computer, which means cars produced since mid-2021.
But more importantly, Tesla says that it doesn’t send commands to the car under the current version. Therefore, it is simply like having Grok on your phone, but on the onboard computer instead.
Tesla showed an example:
There are a few other features in the 2025.26 software update, but they are not major.
For Tesla vehicles equipped with ambient lighting strips inside the car, the light strip can now sync to music:
Accent lights now respond to music & you can also choose to match the lights to the album’s color for a more immersive effect
Toybox > Light Sync
Here’s the new setting:
The audio setting can now be saved under multiple presets to match listening preferences for different people or circumstances:
The software update also includes the capacity to zoom or adjust the playback speed of the Dashcam Viewer.
Cybertruck also gets the updated Dashcam Viewer app with a grid view for easier access and review of recordings:
Tesla also updated the charging info in its navigation system to be able to search which locations require valet service or pay-to-park access.
Upon arrival, drivers will receive a notification with access codes, parking restrictions, level or floor information, and restroom availability:
Finally, there’s a new onboarding guide directly on the center display to help people who are experiencing a Tesla vehicle for the first time.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla is really playing catch-up here. Right now, this update is essentially nothing. If you already have Grok, it’s no more different than having it on your phone or through the vehicle’s browser, since it has no capacity to interact with any function inside the vehicle.
Most other automakers are integrating LLMs inside vehicles with the capacity to interact with the vehicle. In China, this is becoming standard even in entry-level cars.
In the Xiaomi YU7, the vehicle’s AI can not only interact with the car, but it also sees what the car sees through its camera, and it can tell you about what it sees:
Tesla is clearly far behind on that front as many automakers are integrating with other LLMs like ChatGPT and in-house LLMs, like Xiaomi’s.
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Robinhood stock hit an all-time high Friday as the financial services platform continued to rip higher this year, along with bitcoin and other crypto stocks.
Robinhood, up more than 160% in 2025, hit an intraday high above $101 before pulling back and closing slightly lower.
The reversal came after a Bloomberg report that JPMorgan plans to start charging fintechs for access to customer bank data, a move that could raise costs across the industry.
For fintech firms that rely on thin margins to offer free or low-cost services to customers, even slight disruptions to their cost structure can have major ripple effects. PayPal and Affirm both ended the day nearly 6% lower following the report.
Despite its stellar year, the online broker is facing several headwinds, with a regulatory probe in Florida, pushback over new staking fees and growing friction with one of the world’s most high-profile artificial intelligence companies.
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier opened a formal investigation into Robinhood Crypto on Thursday, alleging the platform misled users by claiming to offer the lowest-cost crypto trading.
“Robinhood has long claimed to be the best bargain, but we believe those representations were deceptive,” Uthmeier said in a statement.
The probe centers on Robinhood’s use of payment for order flow — a common practice where market makers pay to execute trades — which the AG said can result in worse pricing for customers.
Robinhood Crypto General Counsel Lucas Moskowitz told CNBC its disclosures are “best-in-class” and that it delivers the lowest average cost.
“We disclose pricing information to customers during the lifecycle of a trade that clearly outlines the spread or the fees associated with the transaction, and the revenue Robinhood receives,” added Moskowitz.
Robinhood is also facing opposition to a new 25% cut of staking rewards for U.S. users, set to begin October 1. In Europe, the platform will take a smaller 15% cut.
Staking allows crypto holders to earn yield by locking up their tokens to help secure blockchain networks like ethereum, but platforms often take a percentage of those rewards as commission.
Robinhood’s 25% cut puts it in line with Coinbase, which charges between 25.25% and 35% depending on the token. The cut is notably higher than Gemini’s flat 15% fee.
It marks a shift for the company, which had previously steered clear of staking amid regulatory uncertainty.
Under President Joe Biden‘s administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission cracked down on U.S. platforms offering staking services, arguing they constituted unregistered securities.
With President Donald Trump in the White House, the agency has reversed course on several crypto enforcement actions, dropping cases against major players like Coinbase and Binance and signaling a more permissive stance.
Even as enforcement actions ease, Robinhood is under fresh scrutiny for its tokenized stock push, which is a growing part of its international strategy.
The company now offers blockchain-based assets in Europe that give users synthetic exposure to private firms like OpenAI and SpaceX through special purpose vehicles, or SPVs.
An SPV is a separate entity that acquires shares in a company. Users then buy tokens of the SPV and don’t have shareholder privileges or voting rights directly in the company.
OpenAI has publicly objected, warning the tokens do not represent real equity and were issued without its approval. In an interview with CNBC International, CEO Vlad Tenev acknowledged the tokens aren’t technically equity shares, but said that misses the broader point.
“What’s important is that retail customers have an opportunity to get exposure to this asset,” he said, pointing to the disruptive nature of AI and the historically limited access to pre-IPO companies.
“It is true that these are not technically equity,” Tenev added, noting that institutional investors often gain similar exposure through structured financial instruments.
The Bank of Lithuania — Robinhood’s lead regulator in the EU — told CNBC on Monday that it is “awaiting clarifications” following OpenAI’s statement.
“Only after receiving and evaluating this information will we be able to assess the legality and compliance of these specific instruments,” a spokesperson said, adding that information for investors must be “clear, fair, and non-misleading.”
Tenev responded that Robinhood is “happy to continue to answer questions from our regulators,” and said the company built its tokenized stock program to withstand scrutiny.
“Since this is a new thing, regulators are going to want to look at it,” he said. “And we expect to be scrutinized as a large, innovative player in this space.”
SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently called the model “an innovation” on CNBC’s Squawk Box, offering some validation as Robinhood leans further into its synthetic equity strategy — even as legal clarity remains in flux across jurisdictions.
Despite the regulatory noise, many investors remain focused on Robinhood’s upside, and particularly the political tailwinds.
The company is positioning itself as a key beneficiary of Trump’s newly signed megabill, which includes $1,000 government-seeded investment accounts for newborns. Robinhood said it’s already prototyping an app for the ‘Trump Accounts‘ initiative.
WATCH: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev
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