Could Tory plot tempt Rishi Sunak into early general election?
It is more likely to fail than succeed, the plotters behind the attempt to oust Rishi Sunak believe.
The most likely outcome of all the conversations, scheming and briefing is that the Tories go down to an even bigger defeat than they otherwise would have done when the election finally comes.
Yet, the handful of ex-advisers and MPs looking at an unprecedented third change of leader in this parliament say they believe that the risk is worth it.
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The plot – led by a group without a name or headquarters, some of whom aren’t being paid and some of whom have never met one another – gained shape on Tuesday night thanks to Downing Street.
Pic: Downing Street
In an effort to flush out the enemy, allies of Mr Sunak named Will Dry, who was head of polling in Number 10 until six weeks ago, as one of those involved.
Instead of unnerving the 25-year-old – who is described as Cummings-esque by former colleagues – he went on the attack and blasted the PM for a lack of direction, confirming he was trying to change the leader.
This extraordinary sequence of events proved the existence of the movement.
Other names of those involved are expected to leak within days, though no one has yet leaked the name of the donor who funded the devastating big money poll that suggests the Tories face being wiped out at the election and Labour will get a 120-seat majority.
Will Dry was named as a plotter by Number 10. Pic: Sky News
Those involved insist it is MP-led, yet most MPs – who are critical of ousting another PM – are not on board yet, and may never be.
They repeat that to change from Mr Sunak after changing twice already would be insane.
The plotters believe more will come round to their view, however.
They argue Mr Sunak is consistently underwhelming, that he will potentially lose by-elections and local election races and does not have the touch to turn things around.
Some are skilled at briefing the papers, disrupting Number 10’s attempts to take back control of events.
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There is no single name they agree on as a replacement, with Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick and Penny Mordaunt all having their drawbacks.
So Mr Sunak faces 11 months of attrition from his own side, potentially meaning things get worse the longer he leaves the election.
Could this tempt him to reconsider and go to the country in May after all?
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The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the three month period.
The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.
Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.
And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.
Pic: Reuters
Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Am I satisfied with the numbers published today? Of course not. I want growth to be stronger, to come sooner, and also to be felt by families right across the country.”
“It’s why in my Mansion House speech last night, I announced some of the biggest reforms of our pension system in a generation to unlock long term patient capital, up to £80bn to help invest in small businesses and scale up businesses and in the infrastructure needs,” Ms Reeves later told Sky News in an interview.
“We’re four months into this government. There’s a lot more to do to turn around the growth performance of the last decade or so.”
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The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector.
The UK’s GDP for the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.
The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.
It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.
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The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.
The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.
Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.
The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.
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