Could Tory plot tempt Rishi Sunak into early general election?
It is more likely to fail than succeed, the plotters behind the attempt to oust Rishi Sunak believe.
The most likely outcome of all the conversations, scheming and briefing is that the Tories go down to an even bigger defeat than they otherwise would have done when the election finally comes.
Yet, the handful of ex-advisers and MPs looking at an unprecedented third change of leader in this parliament say they believe that the risk is worth it.
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The plot – led by a group without a name or headquarters, some of whom aren’t being paid and some of whom have never met one another – gained shape on Tuesday night thanks to Downing Street.
Pic: Downing Street
In an effort to flush out the enemy, allies of Mr Sunak named Will Dry, who was head of polling in Number 10 until six weeks ago, as one of those involved.
Instead of unnerving the 25-year-old – who is described as Cummings-esque by former colleagues – he went on the attack and blasted the PM for a lack of direction, confirming he was trying to change the leader.
This extraordinary sequence of events proved the existence of the movement.
Other names of those involved are expected to leak within days, though no one has yet leaked the name of the donor who funded the devastating big money poll that suggests the Tories face being wiped out at the election and Labour will get a 120-seat majority.
Will Dry was named as a plotter by Number 10. Pic: Sky News
Those involved insist it is MP-led, yet most MPs – who are critical of ousting another PM – are not on board yet, and may never be.
They repeat that to change from Mr Sunak after changing twice already would be insane.
The plotters believe more will come round to their view, however.
They argue Mr Sunak is consistently underwhelming, that he will potentially lose by-elections and local election races and does not have the touch to turn things around.
Some are skilled at briefing the papers, disrupting Number 10’s attempts to take back control of events.
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There is no single name they agree on as a replacement, with Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick and Penny Mordaunt all having their drawbacks.
So Mr Sunak faces 11 months of attrition from his own side, potentially meaning things get worse the longer he leaves the election.
Could this tempt him to reconsider and go to the country in May after all?
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Sir Keir Starmer set for Donald Trump trade talks as PM walks diplomatic line between EU allies and US on Gaza
Gaza and transatlantic trade are set to dominate talks between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer when the pair meet in Scotland on Monday.
Downing Street said the prime minister would discuss “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.
Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.
Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.
Sir Keir has tried to forge close personal ties with the president, frequently praising his actions on the world stage despite clear foreign policy differences between the US and UK.
The approach seemed to pay off in May when Mr Trump announced the agreement of a trade deal with the UK that would see several tariffs lowered.
The two leaders are expected to discuss this agreement when they meet, with the prime minister likely to press the president for a lowering of outstanding tariffs on imports such as steel.
Prior to the visit, the White House said the talks would allow them to “refine the historic US-UK trade deal”.
Extracting promises from the president on the Middle East may be harder though.
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Should aid be dropped into Gaza?
Despite some reports that Mr Trump is growing frustrated with Israel, there is a clear difference in tone between the US and its Western allies.
As he did over the Ukraine war, Sir Keir will have to walk a diplomatic line between the UK’s European allies and the White House.
On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced his country would formally recognise a Palestinian state in September, the first member of the G7 to do so.
That move was dismissed by Mr Trump, who said it “doesn’t carry any weight”.
Read more from Sky News:
US and EU agree trade deal – with bloc facing 15% tariffs
Geldof accuses Israel of ‘lying’ about Gaza starvation
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Trump: ‘It doesn’t matter what Macron says’
The UK, French and German leaders spoke over the weekend and agreed to work together on the “next phase” in Gaza that would see transitional governance and security arrangements put in place, alongside the large-scale delivery of aid.
Under pressure from members of his own party and cabinet to follow France and signal formal recognition of Palestine, Sir Keir has gradually become more critical of Israel in recent months.
On Friday, the prime minister said “the starvation and denial of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people, the increasing violence from extremist settler groups, and Israel’s disproportionate military escalation in Gaza are all indefensible”.
Government sources say UK recognition is a matter of “when, not if”, however, it’s thought Downing Street wants to ensure any announcement is made at a time when it can have the greatest diplomatic impact.
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Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza
Cabinet ministers will be convened in the coming days, during the summer recess, to discuss the situation in Gaza.
The UK has also been working with Jordan to air drop supplies, after Israel said it would allow foreign countries to provide aid to the territory.
President Trump’s trip to Scotland comes ahead of his second state visit to the UK in September.
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Downing Street says Ukraine will also likely be discussed in the meeting with both men reflecting on what can be done to force Russia back to the negotiating table.
After the meeting at Turnberry, the prime minister will travel with the president to Aberdeen for a private engagement.
Mr Trump is also expected to meet Scottish First Minister John Swinney while in the country.
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