It is more likely to fail than succeed, the plotters behind the attempt to oust Rishi Sunak believe.
The most likely outcome of all the conversations, scheming and briefing is that the Tories go down to an even bigger defeat than they otherwise would have done when the election finally comes.
Yet, the handful of ex-advisers and MPs looking at an unprecedented third change of leader in this parliament say they believe that the risk is worth it.
With Reform now level pegging with the Lib Dem’s in the Sky News’ poll tracker, its analysis is that the Tory party faces possible extinction if Nigel Farage joins the election campaign – so anything is worth a try.
The plot – led by a group without a name or headquarters, some of whom aren’t being paid and some of whom have never met one another – gained shape on Tuesday night thanks to Downing Street.
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Image: Pic: Downing Street
In an effort to flush out the enemy, allies of Mr Sunak named Will Dry, who was head of polling in Number 10 until six weeks ago, as one of those involved.
Instead of unnerving the 25-year-old – who is described as Cummings-esque by former colleagues – he went on the attack and blasted the PM for a lack of direction, confirming he was trying to change the leader.
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This extraordinary sequence of events proved the existence of the movement.
Other names of those involved are expected to leak within days, though no one has yet leaked the name of the donor who funded the devastating big money poll that suggests the Tories face being wiped out at the election and Labour will get a 120-seat majority.
Image: Will Dry was named as a plotter by Number 10. Pic: Sky News
Those involved insist it is MP-led, yet most MPs – who are critical of ousting another PM – are not on board yet, and may never be.
They repeat that to change from Mr Sunak after changing twice already would be insane.
The plotters believe more will come round to their view, however.
They argue Mr Sunak is consistently underwhelming, that he will potentially lose by-elections and local election races and does not have the touch to turn things around.
Some are skilled at briefing the papers, disrupting Number 10’s attempts to take back control of events.
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It was a prescient and – as it turned out – incredibly optimistic sign off from Peter Mandelson after eight years as Chancellor of Manchester Metropolitan University.
“I hope I survive in my next job for at least half that period”, the Financial Times reported him as saying – with a smile.
As something of a serial sackee from government posts, we know Sir Keir Starmer was, to an extent, aware of the risks of appointing the ‘Prince of Darkness’ as his man in Washington.
But in his first interview since he gave the ambassador his marching orders, the prime minister said if he had “known then what I know now” then he would not have given him the job.
For many Labour MPs, this will do little to answer questions about the slips in political judgement that led Downing Street down this disastrous alleyway.
Like the rest of the world, Sir Keir Starmer did know of Lord Mandelson’s friendship with the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein when he sent him to Washington.
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The business secretary spelt out the reasoning for that over the weekend saying that the government judged it “worth the risk”.
Image: Keir Starmer welcomes Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte to Downing Street.
Pic: PA
This is somewhat problematic.
As you now have a government which – after being elected on the promise to restore high standards – appears to be admitting that previous indiscretions can be overlooked if the cause is important enough.
Package that up with other scandals that have resulted in departures – Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq, Angela Rayner – and you start to get a stink that becomes hard to shift.
But more than that, the events of the last week again demonstrate an apparent lack of ability in government to see round corners and deal with crises before they start knocking lumps out of the Prime Minister.
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‘Had I known then, what I know now, I’d have never appointed him’ Starmer said.
Remember, for many the cardinal sin here was not necessarily the original appointment of Mandelson (while eyebrows were raised at the time, there was nowhere near the scale of outrage we’ve had in the last week with many career diplomats even agreeing the with logic of the choice) but the fact that Sir Keir walked into PMQs and gave the ambassador his full throated backing when it was becoming clear to many around Westminster that he simply wouldn’t be able to stay in post.
The explanation from Downing Street is essentially that a process was playing out, and you shouldn’t sack an ambassador based on a media enquiry alone.
But good process doesn’t always align with good politics.
Something this barrister-turned-politician may now be finding out the hard way.