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There was general agreement at the Institute for Government’s Annual conference last week that it would be a good thing for Britain if this year’s election campaign is not “dirty”.

This highfalutin notion was shot down in seconds with equally universal assumption by the assembled politicians and policy wonks that “that is not going to happen”.

A clean campaign would concentrate on policies and competence.

A dirty campaign is built around slurs, distortions and untruths, with those competing for votes slinging mud at each other.

A lot of factors, headed by booming social media, are coming together to suggest that this year we may see one of the dirtiest election campaigns ever.

The IFG delegates had to wait less than a day for their forebodings to come true. There might have been a lot to talk about at Prime Minister’s Questions.

The Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) bill struggling through parliament. The world order threatened by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel and the Red Sea.

Record NHS waiting lists are the public’s number one concern. The chancellor is contemplating two rounds of tax cuts.

But no, the leader of the opposition chose to exchange personal insults, much of it based on dubious content circulating on smartphones.

Rishi Sunak  during PMQs
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Rishi Sunak responds to Sir Keir Starmer during PMQs

Fair’s fair, Sir Keir Starmer started it this time, but Rishi Sunak had a well-stocked pile to fling back.

Starmer opened up referring to a couple of brief unofficial clips posted online. One showing the prime minister “collapsing in laughter when he was asked by a member of the public about the NHS waiting lists”.

The other “accidentally record[ing] a candid video for Nigel Farage“.

Sunak, who seldom passes up a chance to brand Starmer as a lefty London lawyer, shot back that he is “the man who takes the knee, who wanted to abolish the monarchy, and who still does not know what a woman is”.

Previously Starmer “chose to represent a now-proscribed terrorist group” Hizb ut-Tahrir, and “served” Jeremy Corbyn.

Keir Starmer during PMQs
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer during PMQs

Both men knew that the insults they were sticking on each other were essentially unjustified distortions of the other, but that was what they chose to put on the national agenda at the most scrutinized moment of the political week.

Starmer has explicitly changed his party and his previous positions.

Under scrutiny, he has clarified and explained each of the specific acts detailed. It is a core principle of British justice that advocates are not surrogates for their clients.

Sunak was not laughing at the people he was talking to and spoke to them properly after the end of the clip.

The alleged greeting to Farage was repurposing an online meme which allows any name, in this case “Nigel”, to be put into the prime minister’s mouth.

Neither Sunak nor Starmer are classic alpha males.

Sunak comes across as a whiny or petulant geek, Starmer seems hesitant, overcautious and inclined to blame others.

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Starmer pushes PM on childcare

Perhaps this is why they feel the need to overcompensate by acting rough and tough. Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, also has his moments of fabricated machismo.

The leaders set the tone and their petulance has been picked up in the campaigning efforts of their underlings and supporters.

Prime minister Boris Johnson took up an online distortion that Starmer had failed, when he was director of public prosecutions, to take action against Jimmy Savile.

This prompted the senior Downing Street aide Munira Mirza to resign protesting that this was “not the normal cut and thrust of politics”.

It soon would be. Labour cited Johnson’s attack as justification for their later personalised digital poster attacks on Rishi Sunak including the smear that he “doesn’t think adults convicted of sexually abusing children should go to prison”.

Labour attack ad on Rishi Sunak
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Labour published an attack advert on social media targeting Rishi Sunak last year. Pic: Labour/X

Since then Keir Starmer has gone out of his way not to back down or apologise; following the code of the playground he promises to punch back hard against any attacks.

At the start of election year he rejected an invitation from Beth Rigby to take up Michelle Obama’s famous recommendation: “When they go low, we go high”.

Instead, he told Sky News’ political editor: “If they want to go with fire, we will meet their fire with fire”.

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‘We will meet their fire with fire’

Donald Trump crafts insults – Lyin’ Ted, Sleepy Joe, Ron DeSanctimonious – with cruel genius and gets away with fabulations.

There is only one Trump; honest political strivers should not try to copy him.

Opinion polls after personalised attacks usually show that support for both sides goes down, though more for the target than the attacker.

This should give all the party leaders something to think about, especially since public respect for politicians is at a record low and a low or differential turnout could be a major factor.

Starmer needs to mobilise enthusiasm for his leadership, not dent it. Sunak’s standing is already low and doesn’t want to drop further.

Labour's latest Sunak attack ad
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Labour’s attack advert targeting Sunak was published on the Conservative Home website earlier this year. Pic: Conservative Home

This government raised spending limits for the election campaign to £35m. Much of it will go on direct messaging to voters – which is harder to police than election broadcasts and billboards.

During the 2019 campaign, the Conservatives spent over a million on Facebook, much of it on messages disparaging Jeremy Corbyn.

Both Labour and Conservatives are already spending over a million a month on Facebook advertising.

Then there is what partisan supporters choose to put up on social media independently.

Labour has already advised its supporters to use humour.

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Even without explicitly taking sides humourists such as Coldwar Steve and Trumpton, liked and retweeted, can make some political weather, often by lowering the tone.

Political propagandising is much more equal opportunity than it used to be. Anyone can post.

On the other hand, the newspapers and other mainstream media no longer have a near monopoly.

In 1997 when The Sun ran its famous “Nightmare on Kinnock Street” and “Will the Last Person to Leave Britain Please Turn Off the Lights” attacks on Labour, the paper’s circulation was 3.9 million.

The Conservative Party display their new poster campaign by driving them past the Houses of Parliament in central London.
Image:
The Conservative Party’s poster campaign attacking Gordon Brown during the 2010 election. Pic: PA

Read more from Sky News:
No clear alternative to Sunak as party leader among 2019 Tory voters, poll suggests
Post-Brexit trade talks with Canada paused amid row over beef and cheese

The last official figures released were 1.2 million in 2020.

Poster launches used to be major events in political campaigning, but who would bother with them today?

There are some worthwhile lessons to be learned from the classics.

The Saatchi brothers are celebrated for their attacking of billboards: Labour isn’t working, Labour’s tax bombshell and Labour’s Policy on Arms (showing a combat soldier surrendering hands up).

Each of these were masterpieces of wit and effort compared to the Conservatives’ adoption of the BBC newsreader caught giving the finger for “Labour when you ask for their plans to tackle immigration”.

The Saatchis’ best work riffed with precision on policy rather than personal insults.

When the Conservatives tried that with their “New Labour, New Danger” demon eyes poster it misfired; it was difficult to convincingly portray Blair as a devil when other Conservative sources were attacking him as an inexperienced Bambi.

The Conservative Central Office unveiled their latest pre-election campaign weapon, a poster depicting Tony Blair with demonic eyes.
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The Conservative Central Office’s 1996 poster depicting Tony Blair with demonic eyes. Pic: Conservative Central Office

Labour boobed depicting Cameron as a cute bicycling chameleon.

The most effective attacks at PMQs cut directly to the political issues facing the voters, rather than scuffling around in their past record for something compromising.

Mrs Thatcher struck directly and seemingly spontaneously at Michael Foot: “Afraid of an election is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit?”.

“Weak, weak, weak,” Tony Blair gutted John Major. “You were the future once.”

Sunak, Starmer and their teams of advisors have yet to produce anything as authentic.

Something which would crystallise the political moment.

Instead, they and we can look forward to a year in the dirt as they scrabble around trying to find it.

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ECB adviser doubts digital euro can match US dollar stablecoins

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ECB adviser doubts digital euro can match US dollar stablecoins

ECB adviser doubts digital euro can match US dollar stablecoins

The European Central Bank may rely on regulated euro stablecoins and private innovation to counter the dominance of US dollar stablecoins, says adviser Jürgen Schaaf.

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Democrats probe housing regulator over considering crypto in mortgages

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Democrats probe housing regulator over considering crypto in mortgages

Democrats probe housing regulator over considering crypto in mortgages

A group of Senate Democrats has probed Federal Housing Finance Agency director William Pulte over his order to propose how to consider crypto in mortgage applications.

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Sir Keir Starmer set for Donald Trump trade talks as PM walks diplomatic line between EU allies and US on Gaza

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Sir Keir Starmer set for Donald Trump trade talks as PM walks diplomatic line between EU allies and US on Gaza

Gaza and transatlantic trade are set to dominate talks between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer when the pair meet in Scotland on Monday.

Downing Street said the prime minister would discuss “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.

Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.

Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.

Sir Keir has tried to forge close personal ties with the president, frequently praising his actions on the world stage despite clear foreign policy differences between the US and UK.

The approach seemed to pay off in May when Mr Trump announced the agreement of a trade deal with the UK that would see several tariffs lowered.

The two leaders are expected to discuss this agreement when they meet, with the prime minister likely to press the president for a lowering of outstanding tariffs on imports such as steel.

Prior to the visit, the White House said the talks would allow them to “refine the historic US-UK trade deal”.

Extracting promises from the president on the Middle East may be harder though.

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Should aid be dropped into Gaza?

Despite some reports that Mr Trump is growing frustrated with Israel, there is a clear difference in tone between the US and its Western allies.

As he did over the Ukraine war, Sir Keir will have to walk a diplomatic line between the UK’s European allies and the White House.

On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced his country would formally recognise a Palestinian state in September, the first member of the G7 to do so.

That move was dismissed by Mr Trump, who said it “doesn’t carry any weight”.

Read more from Sky News:
US and EU agree trade deal – with bloc facing 15% tariffs
Geldof accuses Israel of ‘lying’ about Gaza starvation

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Trump: ‘It doesn’t matter what Macron says’

The UK, French and German leaders spoke over the weekend and agreed to work together on the “next phase” in Gaza that would see transitional governance and security arrangements put in place, alongside the large-scale delivery of aid.

Under pressure from members of his own party and cabinet to follow France and signal formal recognition of Palestine, Sir Keir has gradually become more critical of Israel in recent months.

On Friday, the prime minister said “the starvation and denial of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people, the increasing violence from extremist settler groups, and Israel’s disproportionate military escalation in Gaza are all indefensible”.

Government sources say UK recognition is a matter of “when, not if”, however, it’s thought Downing Street wants to ensure any announcement is made at a time when it can have the greatest diplomatic impact.

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Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza

Cabinet ministers will be convened in the coming days, during the summer recess, to discuss the situation in Gaza.

The UK has also been working with Jordan to air drop supplies, after Israel said it would allow foreign countries to provide aid to the territory.

President Trump’s trip to Scotland comes ahead of his second state visit to the UK in September.

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Downing Street says Ukraine will also likely be discussed in the meeting with both men reflecting on what can be done to force Russia back to the negotiating table.

After the meeting at Turnberry, the prime minister will travel with the president to Aberdeen for a private engagement.

Mr Trump is also expected to meet Scottish First Minister John Swinney while in the country.

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