That’s because, after a two-year plunge in mergers and acquisitions across the industry, there are signs of life to start 2024, with expectations that many more deals are on the way.
For someactivists, who take significant stakes in companies often with the ultimate objective of pushing for a sale at a higher price, their campaign efforts can only fully pay off if there’s an active market of buyers. While they can pressure executives to cut costs and improve operations, to profit from their investments, they generally need to see some sort of deal.
An investment banker who advises tech companies told CNBC that his firm is warning clients of a changing environment. The banker, who asked not to be named because he wasn’t authorized to speak on the matter, said his team is telling companies that longer-term activist shareholders are poised to start pushing for breakups or sales, as cost-cuttingopportunities diminish.
Tech, media and telecom deal volume peaked at $856 billion in 2021, the year the bull market of more than a decade came to an end. That number dropped to $565 billion in 2022 and plummeted by more than half last year to $255 billion, according to PwC.
Rather than opening their wallets for acquisitions, companies were announcing mass layoffs and other cost cuts, acknowledging that they’d hired too aggressively during the Covid boom. Instead of growth subsidized by the capital markets, tech companies started focusing on operational efficiencies.
Layoffs in the industry jumped about 60% last year, with almost 1,200 companies eliminating more than 262,000 jobs, according to the website Layoffs.fyi.
“A very big portion of these companies are engaging in these layoffs because they are under pressure from an activist behind the scenes,” Sidley Austin shareholder activism and defense co-chair Kai Liekefett told CNBC. “Activists believe that founder-led companies are rarely run efficiently. They think they are run like a frat house.”
While job cuts continue to hit the headlines — January has been the busiest month for layoffs since March — some companies are showing a willingness to start spending big again.
So far this month two mega tech deals have been announced. Semiconductor design and software company Synopsysagreed to acquire Ansys, an engineering and product design software firm, for about $35 billion. And Hewlett Packard Enterprise said it’s buying networking gear vendor Juniper Networks for around $14 billion. Juniper had been targeted by activist hedge fund Elliott Management almost a decade ago.
Also in January, diversified tech company Roper announced its $1.75 billion purchase of software developer Procare Solutions.
Two different activists are pushing Twilio to sell itself or break up, CNBC has previously reported. In January, Piper Sandler analysts floated Adobe or Zoom as potential strategic buyers of Twilio, which has a market cap of over $13 billion.
Salesforce was able to put activist campaigns to bed last year, largely through quick cost-cutting measures. In January 2023, shortly after Elliott was reported to have a multibillion-dollar investment in Salesforce, the company cut 10% of its staff and emphasized a renewed focus on profitability. Salesforce just eliminated another 700 jobs, or about 1% of its workforce, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Activists have shown in the recent past they can push tech companies toward the M&A market.
In October 2022, Starboard Value disclosed a nearly 5% stake in Splunk and called the company a “highly strategic” asset for the right acquirer, specifically notingCisco’s interest in the company. Less than a year later, Cisco said it would acquire Splunk for $28 billion deal, up from a market cap of about $11.4 billion when news of Starboard’s involvement first surfaced.
Cisco chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins and Splunk CEO Gary Steele on CNBC’S Squawk on the Street.
CNBC
Renewed dealmaking isn’t the only development keeping activists busy.
In 2022, the SEC introduced what’s called the universal proxy card, which lists all director nominees, from both management and shareholders, on one card rather than competing slates.
The rule hasn’t yet had much of an effect, but there are signs that could be changing. At Starbucks, for example, trade union coalition Strategic Organizing Center is angling to secure board seats on a campaign focused on the company’s treatment of workers, the Financial Times reported.
An activist advisor, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive matters, said that numerous proxy fights are “in the pipeline,” and that companies may be less willing to hand over control of the board without a battle.
Global semiconductor stocks climbed on Monday after contract electronics giant Foxconn announced record fourth-quarter revenues, suggesting the artificial intelligence boom has far more room to run.
Hon Hai Precision Industry, which does business as Foxconn internationally, said in a Sunday statement that the company’s fourth-quarter revenue totaled 2.1 trillion New Taiwan dollars ($63.9 billion), growing 15% year-over-year.
Foxconn — which is a supplier to Apple — also set a record, posting the highest fourth-quarter revenue ever in company history, according to the statement.
The firm’s bumper revenue performance was driven by growth in its cloud and networking products — which includes AI servers like those designed by the likes of chipmaker Nvidia — and components and other products segments.
Computing products and smart consumer electronics — which numbers iPhone and other smartphones — saw “slight declines,” Foxconn said.
Shares of several semiconductor firms across Asia, Europe and the U.S. rose, as a result.
In Asia, TSMC hit a record high Monday and closed 1.9% higher in Taiwan.
The largest semiconductor manufacturer globally, TSMC produces chips for the likes of AMD and Nvidia.
Other Asian chip firms also logged share price gains — South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung rose nearly 10% and 4%, respectively.
In Europe, globally critical semiconductor equipment firm ASML saw its shares jump almost 6%, while fellow Dutch chip company ASMI’s stock rose almost 5%. Germany’s Infineon surged more than 6%.
Paris-listed shares of European contract chipmaker STMicroelectronics rose nearly 6%.
Stateside, Nvidia got a boost from the Foxconn numbers, climbing 2% in U.S. premarket trading.
Top Volkswagen and Xpeng executives pose at the German automaker’s launch event in Beijing, China, on Aug. 24, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shares of Volkswagen and Xpeng both rose on Monday after the two firms announced plans to expand their partnership in electric vehicle charging stations in China.
The German automaker and Chinese electric car firm signed a memorandum of understanding in which they pledged to open their respective super-fast charging networks to each others’ customers. The collaboration will see more than 20,000 charging points operated by both firms in 420 cities across China.
Xpeng’s Hong Kong-listed shares closed 3.4% higher on Monday. Volkswagen was up 2% in early trade in Europe.
Volkswagen and Xpeng will explore cooperation on co-branded super-fast charging stations, the companies said.
“Through our strategic collaboration with XPENG, we will form one of the largest Super Fast Charging Networks in China enabling people to seamlessly integrate e-mobility into their daily lives not only in the metropolises but also in remote cities,” said Olaf Korzinovski, executive vice president of Volkswagen Group China.
Charging points are becoming a key battleground in the electric vehicle space because they provide the necessary infrastructure that allows people to drive further in battery-powered cars if they need to recharge. Tesla has also been expanding its Supercharger network in China.
Volkswagen has ramped up its focus on China. In 2023, it invested around $700 million in Xpeng, taking a 4.99% stake in the firm. The German automaker is aiming to offer at least 30 fully electric models across its brands in China by 2030.
Xpeng and Volkswagen are also looking to jointly develop two electric cars for delivery in China in 2026.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk watch the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, on Nov. 19, 2024.
Brandon Bell | Via Reuters
The U.S. political landscape is set to undergo some shifts in 2025 — and those changes will have some major implications for the regulation of artificial intelligence.
President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Jan. 20. Joining him in the White House will be a raft of top advisors from the world of business — including Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy — who are expected to influence policy thinking around nascent technologies such as AI and cryptocurrencies.
Across the Atlantic, a tale of two jurisdictions has emerged, with the U.K. and European Union diverging in regulatory thinking. While the EU has taken more of a heavy hand with the Silicon Valley giants behind the most powerful AI systems, Britain has adopted a more light-touch approach.
In 2025, the state of AI regulation globally could be in for a major overhaul. CNBC takes a look at some of the key developments to watch — from the evolution of the EU’s landmark AI Act to what a Trump administration could do for the U.S.
Musk’s U.S. policy influence
Elon Musk walks on Capitol Hill on the day of a meeting with Senate Republican Leader-elect John Thune (R-SD), in Washington, U.S. December 5, 2024.
Benoit Tessier | Reuters
Although it’s not an issue that featured very heavily during Trump’s election campaign, artificial intelligence is expected to be one of the key sectors set to benefit from the next U.S. administration.
For one, Trump appointed Musk, CEO of electric car manufacturer Tesla, to co-lead his “Department of Government Efficiency” alongside Ramaswamy, an American biotech entrepreneur who dropped out of the 2024 presidential election race to back Trump.
Matt Calkins, CEO of Appian, told CNBC Trump’s close relationship with Musk could put the U.S. in a good position when it comes to AI, citing the billionaire’s experience as a co-founder of OpenAI and CEO of xAI, his own AI lab, as positive indicators.
“We’ve finally got one person in the U.S. administration who truly knows about AI and has an opinion about it,” Calkins said in an interview last month. Musk was one of Trump’s most prominent endorsers in the business community, even appearing at some of his campaign rallies.
There is currently no confirmation on what Trump has planned in terms of possible presidential directives or executive orders. But Calkins thinks it’s likely Musk will look to suggest guardrails to ensure AI development doesn’t endanger civilization — a risk he’s warned about multiple times in the past.
“He has an unquestioned reluctance to allow AI to cause catastrophic human outcomes – he’s definitely worried about that, he was talking about it long before he had a policy position,” Calkins told CNBC.
Currently, there is no comprehensive federal AI legislation in the U.S. Rather, there’s been a patchwork of regulatory frameworks at the state and local level, with numerous AI bills introduced across 45 states plus Washington D.C., Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The EU AI Act
The European Union is so far the only jurisdiction globally to drive forward comprehensive rules for artificial intelligence with its AI Act.
Jaque Silva | Nurphoto | Getty Images
The European Union has so far been the only jurisdiction globally to push forward with comprehensive statutory rules for the AI industry. Earlier this year, the bloc’s AI Act — a first-of-its-kind AI regulatory framework — officially entered into force.
The law isn’t yet fully in force yet, but it’s already causing tension among large U.S. tech companies, who are concerned that some aspects of the regulation are too strict and may quash innovation.
In December, the EU AI Office, a newly created body overseeing models under the AI Act, published a second-draft code of practice for general-purpose AI (GPAI) models, which refers to systems like OpenAI’s GPT family of large language models, or LLMs.
The second draft included exemptions for providers of certain open-source AI models. Such models are typically available to the public to allow developers to build their own custom versions. It also includes a requirement for developers of “systemic” GPAI models to undergo rigorous risk assessments.
The Computer & Communications Industry Association — whose members include Amazon, Google and Meta — warned it “contains measures going far beyond the Act’s agreed scope, such as far-reaching copyright measures.”
The AI Office wasn’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
It’s worth noting the EU AI Act is far from reaching full implementation.
As Shelley McKinley, chief legal officer of popular code repository platform GitHub, told CNBC in November, “the next phase of the work has started, which may mean there’s more ahead of us than there is behind us at this point.”
For example, in February, the first provisions of the Act will become enforceable. These provisions cover “high-risk” AI applications such as remote biometric identification, loan decisioning and educational scoring. A third draft of the code on GPAI models is slated for publication that same month.
European tech leaders are concerned about the risk that punitive EU measures on U.S. tech firms could provoke a reaction from Trump, which might in turn cause the bloc to soften its approach.
Take antitrust regulation, for example. The EU’s been an active player taking action to curb U.S. tech giants’ dominance — but that’s something that could result in a negative response from Trump, according to Swiss VPN firm Proton’s CEO Andy Yen.
“[Trump’s] view is he probably wants to regulate his tech companies himself,” Yen told CNBC in a November interview at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal. “He doesn’t want Europe to get involved.”
UK copyright review
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a media interview while attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, U.S. September 25, 2024.
However, Keir Starmer’s government has said it plans to draw up legislation for AI, although details remain thin for now. The general expectation is that the U.K. will take a more principles-based approach to AI regulation, as opposed to the EU’s risk-based framework.
Most LLMs use public data from the open web to train their AI models. But that often includes examples of artwork and other copyrighted material. Artists and publishers like the New York Times allege that these systems are unfairly scraping their valuable content without consent to generate original output.
To address this issue, the U.K. government is considering making an exception to copyright law for AI model training, while still allowing rights holders to opt out of having their works used for training purposes.
Appian’s Calkins said that the U.K. could end up being a “global leader” on the issue of copyright infringement by AI models, adding that the country isn’t “subject to the same overwhelming lobbying blitz from domestic AI leaders that the U.S. is.”
U.S.-China relations a possible point of tension
U.S. President Donald Trump, right, and Xi Jinping, China’s president, walk past members of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a welcome ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017.
Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Lastly, as world governments seek to regulate fast-growing AI systems, there’s a risk geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China may escalate under Trump.
In his first term as president, Trump enforced a number of hawkish policy measures on China, including a decision to add Huawei to a trade blacklist restricting it from doing business with American tech suppliers. He also launched a bid to ban TikTok,which is owned by Chinese firm ByteDance, in the U.S. — although he’s since softened his position on TikTok.
China is racing to beat the U.S. for dominance in AI. At the same time, the U.S. has taken measures to restrict China’s access to key technologies, mainly chips like those designed by Nvidia, which are required to train more advanced AI models. China has responded by attempting to build its own homegrown chip industry.
Technologists worry that a geopolitical fracturing between the U.S. and China on artificial intelligence could result in other risks, such as the potential for one of the two to develop a form of AI smarter than humans.
Max Tegmark, founder of the nonprofit Future of Life Institute, believes the U.S. and China could in future create a form of AI that can improve itself and design new systems without human supervision, potentially forcing both countries’ governments to individually come up with rules around AI safety.
“My optimistic path forward is the U.S. and China unilaterally impose national safety standards to prevent their own companies from doing harm and building uncontrollable AGI, not to appease the rivals superpowers, but just to protect themselves,” Tegmark told CNBC in a November interview.
Governments are already trying to work together to figure out how to create regulations and frameworks around AI. In 2023, the U.K. hosted a global AI safety summit, which the U.S. and China administrations both attended, to discuss potential guardrails around the technology.