Joe Biden is vowing to respond to a drone attack that killed US soldiers. What are his options?
Joe Biden has promised the US will “respond” to the attack on Tower 22, which left three US military personnel dead and dozens wounded.
The problem is that the US has already been responding to attack after attack on its bases in the Middle East – and has nevertheless failed to deter them.
There have been more than 160 so far.
Middle East latest: Biden decides on drone attack response
There have been more than 160 attacks on US bases in the Middle East. Source: ACLED
And the US has retaliated to those – the graphic below shows their attacks since 27 October.
US attacks since 27 October. Source: ACLED
They already include strikes against bases operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the regime’s most powerful military force – rather than proxy militias.
Defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke said: “What the Americans were trying to do was be very graduated in their response – always to respond to individual attacks with another retaliation on the place where the attack came from.
“It obviously has led the Iranians to feel that they can keep on pushing America. So, I think the fact American service personnel have been killed has crossed a line.
“The Americans now have got to decide if they need to take a step up in terms of their response.”
Military base known as Tower 22 in northeastern Jordan where three US soldiers were killed in drone attack. Pic: Planet Labs PBC via AP
Would a response that included sanctions or perhaps a cyberattack really be a step up?
Many Iranian officials are already under sanctions and there is domestic pressure on Mr Biden to go further.
Professor Clarke suggests that another option would be to target Iranian ships in the Red Sea and connecting waters: “The Americans might regard that as a sensible target since they’re all part of the Iran’s attempts to create a crisis for America.”
IRGC fast boats operate regularly in the Strait of Hormuz and have seized oil tankers in the past.
Earlier this month, Iran also announced that its warship Alborz, a frigate, had entered the Red Sea.
Drone attacks on shipping. Source: Sky News Analysis
There’s also the Behshad.
The ship officially carries cargo but military analysts say it carries out surveillance that has been vital for all the Houthi attacks – another Iranian-backed militia that forms part of the same so-called “axis of resistance”.
Those would be Iranian assets, but still outside Iran. Further up the escalation ladder would be an attack on Iranian territory itself.
That could be limited to the coast, perhaps. Or they could strike the interior – perhaps even on nuclear facilities.
That is the very top of the ladder – and the US would not start there, if only to give itself room to climb in the future.
On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that his country “does not welcome the expansion of conflicts in the region”.
And Mr Biden said on Tuesday that “we don’t need a wider war in the Middle East” but he had decided on an unspecified response.
Others would argue that, with the death of US military personnel, the wider war is already here.
US
Putin wasn’t at the White House, but his influence was – the moments which reveal his hold over Trump
Vladimir Putin wasn’t at the White House but his influence clearly was. At times, it dominated the room.
There were three key moments that revealed the Russian president‘s current hold over Donald Trump.
The first was in the Oval Office. Sitting alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US president told reporters: “I don’t think you need a ceasefire.”
Ukraine talks latest: Zelenskyy ‘ready to meet’ Putin after Trump summit
Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Donald Trump when they met last week. Pic: Reuters
It was a stunning illustration of Mr Trump’s about-face in his approach to peace. For the past six months, a ceasefire has been his priority, but after meeting Mr Putin in Alaska, suddenly it’s not.
Confirmation that he now views the war through Moscow’s eyes.
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Trump applauds Putin and shares ride in ‘The Beast’ last week
The second was the format itself, with Mr Trump reverting to his favoured ask-what-you-like open-ended Q&A.
In Alaska, Mr Putin wasn’t made to take any questions – most likely, because he didn’t want to. But here, Mr Zelenskyy didn’t have a choice. He was subjected to a barrage of them to see if he’d learnt his lesson from last time.
It was a further demonstration of the special status Mr Trump seems to afford to Mr Putin.
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The third was their phone call. Initially, President Trump said he’d speak to the Kremlin leader after his meeting with European leaders. But it turned out to be during it.
A face-to-face meeting with seven leaders was interrupted for a phone call with one – as if Mr Trump had to check first with Mr Putin, before continuing his discussions.
We still don’t know the full details of the peace proposal that’s being drawn up, but all this strongly suggests that it’s one sketched out by Russia. The White House is providing the paper, but the Kremlin is holding the pen.
Read more:
Four key takeaways from the White House Ukraine summit
Trump has taken peace talks a distance not seen since the war began
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Trump, Zelenskyy and the suit: What happened?
For Moscow, the aim now is to keep Mr Trump on their path to peace, which is settlement first, ceasefire later.
It believes that’s the best way of securing its goals, because it has more leverage so long as the fighting continues.
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But Mr Putin will be wary that Mr Trump is pliable and can easily change his mind, depending on the last person he spoke to.
So to ensure that his sympathies aren’t swayed, and its red lines remain intact, Russia will be straining to keep its voice heard.
On Monday, for example, the Russian foreign ministry was quick to condemn recent comments from the UK government that it would be ready to send troops to help enforce any ceasefire.
It described the idea as “provocative” and “predatory”.
Moscow is trying to drown out European concerns by portraying itself as the party that wants peace the most, and Kyiv (and Europe) as the obstacle.
But while Mr Zelenskyy has agreed to a trilateral meeting, the Kremlin has not. After the phone call between Mr Putin and Mr Trump, it said the leaders discussed “raising the level of representatives” in the talks between Russia and Ukraine. No confirmation to what level.
It’s always wise to let the dust settle before reaching conclusions with this presidency.
But on the face of it we are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago.
The consensus that was held back then was that Vladimir Putin would only relent under maximum pressure. He does not want slivers of territory. He wants the whole of Ukraine extinguished and absorbed into his greater Russia.
Ukraine talks latest: Trump sets up Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
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What’s next for Ukraine?
To stop him, allies agreed an immediate ceasefire was necessary, along with much more painful pressure, namely sanctions hitting his oil industry. Europeans and Republicans in Congress agree on that.
Then Alaska and Donald Trump’s U-turn. No ceasefire and no more severe sanctions. So less pressure.
Yesterday’s reality TV diplomatic circus in Washington has not shifted him on that stance, so he stays it seems now aligned with Mr Putin on those crucial points.
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Starmer: This needs to be a lasting deal
Making matters worse for Ukraine, allies seem to be accepting it will have to give up land taken by force.
They sweeten the pill by saying of course only Ukraine can decide whether or not to cede territory, but there is now enormous pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to do so.
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In return there is nebulous and vague talk of security guarantees. European leaders are seizing on the fact Mr Trump did not rule out American troops being involved and hinted at US support for post-war security arrangements.
But that is little consolation for Ukrainians. They point out this president changes his mind as often as his socks and goes back on commitments, even those enshrined in international treaties.
The best that can be said for the White House meeting is it sets up more such meetings.
Read more:
Five key takeaways from the White House Ukraine summit
Trump has taken peace talks a distance not seen since the war began
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Much of yesterday’s events were focused on stroking President Trump’s ego. Many here in Kyiv would prefer he was reminded of a few hard facts about this war. Mr Putin cannot be trusted. Mr Putin wants the end of Ukraine. Mr Putin will only relent under maximum pressure.
Protracted international diplomacy may suit Mr Trump’s craving for attention, but they fear it will only take us further away from peace.
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