Joe Biden has promised the US will “respond” to the attack on Tower 22, which left three US military personnel dead and dozens wounded.
The problem is that the US has already been responding to attack after attack on its bases in the Middle East – and has nevertheless failed to deter them.
Image: There have been more than 160 attacks on US bases in the Middle East. Source: ACLED
And the US has retaliated to those – the graphic below shows their attacks since 27 October.
Image: US attacks since 27 October. Source: ACLED
They already include strikes against bases operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the regime’s most powerful military force – rather than proxy militias.
Defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke said: “What the Americans were trying to do was be very graduated in their response – always to respond to individual attacks with another retaliation on the place where the attack came from.
“The Americans now have got to decide if they need to take a step up in terms of their response.”
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Image: Military base known as Tower 22 in northeastern Jordan where three US soldiers were killed in drone attack. Pic: Planet Labs PBC via AP
Would a response that included sanctions or perhaps a cyberattack really be a step up?
Many Iranian officials are already under sanctions and there is domestic pressure on Mr Biden to go further.
Professor Clarke suggests that another option would be to target Iranian ships in the Red Sea and connecting waters: “The Americans might regard that as a sensible target since they’re all part of the Iran’s attempts to create a crisis for America.”
IRGC fast boats operate regularly in the Strait of Hormuz and have seized oil tankers in the past.
Earlier this month, Iran also announced that its warship Alborz, a frigate, had entered the Red Sea.
Image: Drone attacks on shipping. Source: Sky News Analysis
There’s also the Behshad.
The ship officially carries cargo but military analysts say it carries out surveillance that has been vital for all the Houthi attacks – another Iranian-backed militia that forms part of the same so-called “axis of resistance”.
Those would be Iranian assets, but still outside Iran. Further up the escalation ladder would be an attack on Iranian territory itself.
That could be limited to the coast, perhaps. Or they could strike the interior – perhaps even on nuclear facilities.
That is the very top of the ladder – and the US would not start there, if only to give itself room to climb in the future.
On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that his country “does not welcome the expansion of conflicts in the region”.
And Mr Biden said on Tuesday that “we don’t need a wider war in the Middle East” but he had decided on an unspecified response.
Others would argue that, with the death of US military personnel, the wider war is already here.
Donald Trump has said American troops will not be sent to Ukraine, but the US may provide air support as part of a peace deal with Russia.
A day after his extraordinary White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of Kyiv’s European allies, the US president told Fox News “when it comes to security, [Europeans] are willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably, by air”.
Mr Trump did not elaborate, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters US air support was “an option and a possibility”.
She said the US president “has definitively stated US boots will not be on the ground in Ukraine, but we can certainly help in the coordination and perhaps provide other means of security guarantees to our European allies”.
Air support could take many forms, including missile defence systems or fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone – and it’s not clear what role the US would play under any proposed peace deal.
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4:14
What security guarantees could work?
Zelenskyy-Putin summit
It comes as planning for a possible Zelenskyy-Putin summit get under way. Talks between the Ukrainian and Russian president are seen by Mr Trump as vital to ending the war.
Sky News understands a meeting could happen before the end of the month, with Geneva, Vienna, Rome, Budapest, and Doha among the venues being considered.
Geneva, Switzerland, is considered the best option, with Rome or the Vatican disliked by the Russians and Budapest, Hungary, not favoured by the Ukrainians.
European allies are understood to want security guarantees to be defined before the meeting.
A NATO-like treaty, guaranteeing Ukraine’s allies would come to its defence in case of any future Russian attack, is being worked on and could be completed by next week.
Like the US, Sky News understands Italy is opposed to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.
But EU diplomats are confident this is the best chance yet to stop the war, and allies could return to Washington in early September to celebrate any deal being struck.
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5:57
Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0
Trump still has doubts about Putin
Despite the renewed optimism about a peace deal following Monday’s White House summit, Mr Trump has admitted Vladimir Putin might not be sincere about wanting to end the war.
“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks,” he told Fox News.
He’s previously threatened to put more sanctions on Russia if a peace deal isn’t reached, though previously set deadlines have been and gone.
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Russia launched its biggest air assault on Ukraine in more than a month on Monday night, sending 270 drones and 10 missiles, the Ukrainian air force said.
Ukraine’s European allies in the so-called Coalition of the Willing, an initiative spearheaded by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, discussed additional sanctions to place on Russia on Tuesday.
Image: Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
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4:14
What security guarantees could work?
The Trump administration’s contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.
MP Lesia Vasylenko told Sky News it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.
“Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?”
For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.
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0:46
Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train
In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.
They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia’s side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.
We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.
Image: Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.
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“It’s not true, it’s not true, Russia never, never, it’s my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake.”
Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.
But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.
Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.
Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.
While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.
Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.
If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he’s showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.
Although there has been no confirmation from the Kremlin, Ukraine, the UK, and other Western allies say details of a post-war security agreement will be finalised in the coming days.
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Monday. Pic: AP
What has been said so far?
Security guarantees have long been talked about as a way of ensuring peace in Ukraine when fighting comes to an end.
Since March, when the UK and France spearheaded a largely European ‘coalition of the willing’ and potential peacekeeping force, many have claimed it would be ineffective without American backing.
The US has repeatedly refused to be drawn on its involvement – until now.
He claimed that during the summit, the Kremlin had conceded the US “could offer Article-5 like protection”, which he described as “game-changing”. Article 5 is one of the founding principles of NATO and states that an attack on any of its 32 member states is considered an attack on them all.
Image: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Pic: Reuters/ Kevin Lamarque
This was bolstered by the US president himself after he met his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington on Monday. He said the pair had “discussed security guarantees”, which would be “provided by the various European countries” – “with coordination with the United States of America”.
Writing on X the following day, the Ukrainian leader said the “concrete content” of the security agreement would be “formalised on paper within the next 10 days”.
US reports say security agreement talks will be headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
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5:57
Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0
What would security guarantees look like?
Very few details have emerged so far, despite the series of high-profile meetings.
Speaking to Fox News on Tuesday, Mr Trump said European nations are going to “frontload” the security agreement with soldiers.
“They want to have boots on the ground”, he told the broadcaster, referring to the UK, France, and Germany in particular.
He insisted the US would not send ground troops, adding: “You have my assurance and I’m president.”
Sir Keir Starmer said the coalition of the willing is “preparing for the deployment of a reassurance force” in the event of “hostilities ending”.
This was the original basis for the coalition – soldiers from various European and allied nations placed strategically across Ukraine to deter Russia from launching future attacks.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron in Washington on Monday. Pic: AP
But troops alone are unlikely to be enough of a deterrent for Vladimir Putin, military analyst Sean Bell says.
“This is all about credibility and I don’t think boots on the ground is a credible answer,” he tells Sky News.
Stationing soldiers along Ukraine’s 1,000-mile border with Russia would require around 100,000 soldiers at a time, which would have to be trained, deployed, and rotated, requiring 300,000 in total.
Image: A map of the Ukrainian-Russian border
The entire UK Army would only make up 10% of that, with France likely able to contribute a further 10%, Bell says.
Several European nations would feel unable to sacrifice any troops for an umbrella force due to their proximity to Ukraine and risk of further Russian aggression.
“You’re not even close to getting the numbers you need,” Bell adds. “And even if you could, putting all of NATO’s frontline forces in one country facing Russia would be really dangerous – and leave China, North Korea, Iran, or Russia free to do whatever they wanted.”
History of failed security agreements in Ukraine
Current proposals for Ukrainian security guarantees are far from the first.
In December 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum alongside the UK, US, and Russia.
The Ukrainians agreed to give up their Soviet-inherited nuclear weapons in exchange for recognition of their sovereignty and a place on the UN’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Twenty years later in 2014, however, Russia violated the terms with its illegal annexation of Crimea and the war between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian in the Donbas region.
Similarly, the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015 were designed to bring an end to the Donbas war.
Mediated by France and Germany, they promised a ceasefire, withdrawal of weapons, and local elections in the separatist-occupied Donbas, but were repeatedly violated and failed to result in lasting peace.
‘Article 5-like protection’
When Mr Witkoff first mentioned security guarantees again, he described them as “Article 5-like” or “NATO-style”.
Article 5 is one of the founding principles of NATO and states that an attack on any of its 32 member states is considered an attack on them all.
It has only ever been invoked once since its inception in 1949 – by the US in response to the 9/11 attacks of 2001.
Russia has repeatedly insisted Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO and cited the risk of it happening among its original reasons for attacking Kyiv in 2022.
NATO general-secretary Mark Rutte has said Ukrainian membership is not on the table, but that an alternative “Article 5-type” arrangement could be viable.
The alliance’s military leaders are due to meet on Wednesday to discuss options.
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But he stresses they are both key in providing the “flesh on the bones” to what the coalition of the willing has offered so far.
“It will be about trying to find things that make the Western commitment to the security of Ukraine enduring,” Bell adds.
US airpower, intelligence and a better Ukrainian military
Other potential options for a security agreement include air support, a no-maritime zone, intelligence sharing, and military supplies.
Imposing either a no-fly over Ukraine or no-maritime zone across the Black Sea would “play to NATO’s strengths” – as US air and naval capabilities alone far outstrip Russia’s, Bell says.
Sharing American intelligence with Kyiv to warn of any future Russian aggression would also be a “massive strength” to any potential deterrence force, he adds.
Ukraine is already offering to buy an extra $90bn (£66.6bn) in US weapons with the help of European funds, Mr Zelenskyy said this week.
And any security agreement would likely extend to other military equipment, logistics, and training to help Ukraine better defend itself years down the line, Bell says.
“At first it would need credible Western support, but over time, you would hope the international community makes sure Ukraine can build its own indigenous capability.
“Because while there’s a lot of focus on Ukraine at the moment, in five years’ time, there will be different governments and different priorities – so that has to endure.”