‘The virus is still evolving at an incredible rate’: How widespread is COVID now – and how many people are dying with it?

Published

2 years ago

January 31, 2024

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Exactly four years ago today the UK’s first coronavirus cases were confirmed.

On 31 January 2020, Public Health England said a University of York student from China had tested positive for COVID-19, along with his mother.

Almost two months later, the UK locked down and it was another two years until the final legal restrictions were removed – with some arguing this happened prematurely.

Now in 2024, the virus is still affecting people in ways scientists are only just beginning to fully understand – and affecting the NHS. So how prevalent is COVID today and what have we learned?

How widespread are COVID infections now?

Unsurprisingly, COVID cases are much lower than they have been at various peaks over the past four years.

But the latest data, which covers up to 10 January, estimates that 2.3% of the population of England and Scotland had COVID in the community – the equivalent of around 1.2 million people.

As people no longer report their test results, the most reliable recent estimates on COVID prevalence come from the winter infection survey, carried out by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the UK Health Security Agency.

It is smaller than the original, regular ONS infection study that was discontinued in March 2023, and it doesn’t cover Wales or Northern Ireland.

Although the winter infection study uses lateral flow not PCR tests, the results are broadly comparable.

It shows that following the spread of the JN.1 variant, which is a sub-lineage of the BA.2.86 version of Omicron, the virus last peaked before Christmas, with highs of 4.4% between 19 and 23 December – roughly one in 23 people.

Similarly to the height of the pandemic, the peak was felt most strongly in London, with 5.5% of the capital believed to have COVID by 19 December. The lowest peak was in the North East, with 3.2% of the region thought to have had the virus by 12 December.

Will we see more waves of cases?

The recent COVID peaks are only around half what they were in spring 2022, when 7.6% of England were estimated to have the virus and 9% of Scotland.

Stephen Griffin, professor of virology at the University of Leeds, warns that although the peaks look less dramatic, repeated waves mean they add up to a very high number of cases.

“We’re still seeing multiple waves of COVID every year because the virus is still evolving at an incredible rate,” he says.

The government often cites the initial vaccine rollout as the biggest success of its COVID response.

After they were offered to everybody aged 12 and over, 85% had two doses of a vaccine by mid-2022. But additional booster jabs are now only offered to the over-65s.

And with new variants constantly emerging and most people’s vaccine protection waning, Prof Griffin says the UK is “not suppressing prevalence”, which means “we’ll continue to see those waves”.

How many people have to go to hospital for COVID now?

The pre-Christmas peak in cases didn’t result in as large numbers needing hospital treatment compared with the early days of the pandemic.

Professor Oliver Johnson, professor of information theory at the University of Bristol, says while there have been “many infections” recently, “they are much less severe on average since before we had vaccines”.

Fewer than 5,000 people with COVID have needed hospital treatment in England every week since early 2023. That number peaked at more than 25,000 in a single week in January 2021.

What impact has the anti-vax movement had?

Far fewer people are dying with COVID than before vaccines were offered to all over-18s in June 2021.

Despite the pandemic sparking a resurgence in the “anti-vax” movement, Greg Fell, Sheffield’s director of public health, says the overwhelming positive impact of vaccines on COVID mortality has undoubtedly been “good PR” for them.

“Anti-vax sentiment clearly got highlighted during COVID – but I think most people know that those vaccines really work and that in a world without them, it would be Christmas 2021 again.”

Asked whether the recent drop in MMR vaccines and the measles outbreak in the West Midlands are solely the result of anti-vax groups, he admits there has been “some outright anti-vax sentiment” around MMR that has had an impact, particularly on social media.

But he stresses that addressing “missed opportunities” to use community leaders to engage with disenfranchised groups is just as important in reversing the problem.

Prof Griffin says the delayed decision to vaccinate five to 11-year-olds in 2022 was bad for jab rates, alongside the then-health secretary Sajid Javid’s description of the programme as “non-urgent”. Data shows only around 10% of under-12s had a single dose.

“The dithering and indecision around the benefits for vaccinating children was pretty damaging in the sense that if you look at uptake in younger groups, it’s appalling,” Prof Griffin adds.

Primary courses of the vaccine are also no longer universally available for all age groups, aside from the clinically vulnerable and people who live with them.

“So children turning five after September 2022 have to wait until they’re in their 60s to have a vaccine, unless they become clinically vulnerable,” Prof Griffin says.

“The idea that repeated infections are a preferable means of generating population immunity to vaccines, especially in children, is a dangerous nonsense.”

Concerns over ‘silent organ damage’ from COVID

Long COVID is defined by symptoms that persist for three months or more with no other explicable cause. Almost two million people in the UK had the condition at the time of the latest ONS survey in March 2023.

Studies have put the extra cost to UK GP and other primary care services at an estimated £23m a year – with annual losses to the workforce and greater economic cost thought to be as much as £1.5bn.

A Canadian study suggested that for people infected three times or more, long COVID rates were around 38%.

Dr Rae Duncan, a consultant cardiologist and long COVID research clinician at Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, warns that studies are beginning to suggest serious complications from COVID that could lie dormant for years.

“COVID is a spectrum and long COVID is only one end of that,” Dr Duncan says.

“It’s never been just a cold. The more times you’re infected, the higher your cardiovascular risk, neurological, and endocrine risk. These can all result in life-altering conditions.

“Some may have underlying silent organ damage, which is asymptomatic, meaning people are not aware of it. It needs more research but it’s very concerning.”

A UK biobank study found increased risk of cardiovascular death up to a year-and-a-half after getting COVID in unvaccinated people. Others, including data pooled by scientists in Taiwan, show far greater COVID mortality in people with Alzheimer’s disease.

One piece of research suggested babies born to COVID-positive, unvaccinated mothers had a 20.3% risk of neurodevelopmental delay by age, compared to 5.9% of babies whose mothers did not catch COVID while pregnant.

Given emerging research the virus may carry cardiovascular risks for children, citing NHS guidance that children can go back to school three days after getting COVID, Dr Duncan adds: “We have published data showing it takes around seven days for 75% of children, and 10 days for 90% of children to become non-infectious.

“So we have largely chosen to ignore the impact of COVID on our kids and I think that’s a really bad decision.”

How many people are dying with COVID?

Last year excess deaths (how many more deaths occur than are expected) were still higher than the five-year average, but down on 2022 – from more than 30,000 in 2022 to nearly 27,000 in 2023.

COVID-related deaths almost halved from 32,300 in 2022 to 16,600 in 2023. But they still made up almost two-thirds (62%) of excess deaths last year.

Many argue that NHS backlogs are contributing to excess death numbers, and pressures are evident across all areas of services.

According to the latest data from November, 6.4 million patients were on the waiting list for treatment in England, 42% of whom were still waiting beyond the 18-week target.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine attributed more than 23,000 excess deaths in England in 2022 to long waits in emergency departments – where the latest figures show nearly half (46%) are still waiting far longer than the four-hour target to be seen.

Prof Griffin says: “Excess mortality has got less attributable to COVID, but it’s still a problem.

“COVID did have a huge impact on NHS capacity to deal with the backlog, but we haven’t had those widespread restrictions for several years now, yet the NHS has been unable to catch up again and the year-long added pressure from COVID hospitalisations remains.”

Prof Griffin says that as the years go by, one would expect COVID-related deaths to creep down, but not enough is being done to prevent COVID fatalities.

He adds: “We try and bring down excess deaths from non-communicable diseases like cancer and obesity, but we don’t seem to do it very well for infectious disease, even though that’s something we can do a lot more about.”

Dr Duncan says that we “urgently need multi-layered public health protections”, including seasonal vaccines and ventilation systems for cleaner indoor air to “stop people continuously re-infected with constantly evolving new variants”.

She adds that “already licenced medications” could help people with long-term COVID complications but the government needs to fund them.

What has COVID taught us?

Mr Fell says that as a nation we went into the pandemic in a poor state of health, with “deep inequalities” between ethnic and socioeconomic groups.

“The pandemic reminded us that inequalities in health outcomes are very real and matter enormously,” he says.

“There was more infection in some populations because of underlying health differences, but also things like occupational exposure and overcrowded housing in terms of chains of transmission.”

In those aged 65 and over, Alzheimer’s disease was the most common pre-existing health condition in people who died with COVID. Diabetes was the most common for those under 65.

Although COVID is still a factor driving excess deaths, Mr Fell highlights the mortality rate for age-old public health concerns like smoking, which according to the NHS, causes around 76,000 deaths a year in the UK.

“We still have all the other pandemics of death and illness day in day, out,” he adds. “We need to put as much effort into some of those things as we did in how we responded to COVID.”

From improved ventilation in schools and hospitals to investment in more antiviral drugs and vaccines, Prof Griffin adds: “If you think about the trillions of pounds that have been destroyed by COVID globally, surely the investment of however many million is worthwhile for this and future pandemics.”

Government guidance states that, based on evidence, the vaccine programme changed in 2023 to target higher-risk groups, and that vaccinating children outside of those groups is not recommended.

It also says that data at the end of 2022 suggested almost all older children and adults had coronavirus antibodies from either vaccines or infection.

Sky News has contacted the Department of Health and NHS England for comment.

UK

Online sleuths and fake news: The world of missing people and the torture their families have to endure

Published

12 hours ago

December 19, 2025

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Online sleuths and fake news: The world of missing people and the torture their families have to endure

“When will it end, when will it stop?” It’s the question that Jay Slater’s mother still can’t answer.

The constant stream of vitriol, misinformation, and abuse online has continued every day for the past 18 months.

“I’ve just been absolutely crucified and ripped to pieces,” Debbie Duncan told us, as she read out the online comments that have hurt the most:

• “Debbie deserved to lose her son”
• “How can you possibly respect a mother grifting off her own son’s death?”
• “How do you know it’s Jay in that coffin – he needs digging up.”

“Just scroll, scroll and scroll, and they are still there,” Debbie said. “Jay’s just been dehumanised.”

There are hundreds of millions of pieces of Jay Slater content online, and it’s constantly being created – even after a coroner ruled his fall in a remote ravine in Tenerife was a tragic accident.

“I don’t think I’d be here if I sat every day and read everything that was being said,” Jay’s mum told us.

This is why she is campaigning – in her son’s name.

She has tried and failed many times to get misinformation and the worst abuse taken down from online platforms.

“We just want to have some legislation around content,” she said.

“It’s about the [social media] platforms having that responsibility to take down the misinformation, the harassment, bullying.”

New levels of tragedy trolling

Jay’s case took the febrile world of online sleuthing and tragedy trolling to new levels.

Her campaign to give a degree of control back to families suffering this abuse is backed by the charity Missing People.

They work with a growing number of relatives being attacked online and trying to tackle callous misinformation.

“It feels quite out of control,” Josie Allan from the charity told us.

“We know with the development of AI, there’s going to be even more complicated issues.

“People creating fake news about missing cases, potentially making fake content using missing people’s faces or voices.

“We know that that would just be horrendous for families to have to see and could really misdirect police resources and investigations.”

Bogus posts of missing people

Malicious content like this is appearing more regularly.

Anonymous accounts create bogus missing people posts – often it sits in front of a fake advert or has a link to a scam website.

It exploits the natural goodwill people feel towards missing person cases.

In Australia, the search for a missing boy, Gus Lamont, was recently disrupted by a fake AI image of a man carrying what appeared to be the four-year-old.

It wasn’t real.

It is an emerging and disturbing problem for people searching for a loved one.

In the UK, the family of Andrew Gosden, who has been missing for the past 18 years, has been through a similar ordeal.

Kevin Gosden’s son was 14 years old when he disappeared in 2007.

Andrew caught a train to London from his hometown of Doncaster, South Yorkshire.

His family has never given up hope of him returning.

Father close to breakdown

“Just before the 18th anniversary of Andrew’s disappearance… we suddenly became aware that there were articles online circulating and being shared,” his father told us.

“Claiming that Andrew’s body had been found, that his DNA had been found somewhere… the police have been concealing some CCTV footage with him.

“Utter nonsense. None of that’s true.

“If you’ve got a lot of false information out there, it just doesn’t help find the lad we love.

“We need to know that Andrew is still being looked for.

“I have been very close to what I know is going to be a breakdown, again with it a number of times.”

Clicks are driving content

The monetisation of clicks online is one of the driving forces behind this constant stream of content.

At the CrimeCon conference in Manchester, we spoke to true crime content creators and fans of this growing genre about where the moral boundaries lie.

Andy Hobbs, who sells murder mystery games, told us: “Unfortunately, views means more money. And until that gets looked at, I don’t think any regulation will come in.

“It’s in the interest of social media networks to get more views, more hits.”

Ruth Berry, a true-crime fan, pointed out that online investigators can, in some instances, turn up new information: “They’ve helped solve in some cases, haven’t they?

“They’ve helped to unpick things that maybe authorities haven’t had the resources to do, and they’ve had the time and the resources to do.

“But also is it their jurisdiction and is that evidence actually valid and reliable? Because how did they get hold of it, who knows?”

Annie Robinson and Beth Kent host the Grave Secrets true-crime podcast.

“It’s not something you can control, is it really?” Annie said.

Beth added: “Everyone obviously deserves to have their say, I think I would just be mindful and cautious that you are having an opinion knowing that nobody has all the facts.

“It’s sort of easy to talk about it, as in like, it’s not a real person you’ve got to remember these are still victims and victims’ families,” Annie added.

Some sleuths ‘very dangerous’

“Some amateur sleuths are very dangerous,” forensic psychologist Kerry Daynes told Sky News.

“Because people want their 15 minutes of fame on social media we can’t do things that knowingly hamper police investigations.

“You know, in any other world that would result in a prosecution.

“So I think that we do need to clamp down on those small number of people who do actually cause a great amount of carnage and damage.”

Some content creators have turned up to insert themselves into active police searches but the wider problem of misinformation online is also hindering officers.

Fake news ‘misdirecting police’

Assistant Chief Constable Damien Miller, the national policing lead for missing persons, told us: “It takes policing away from those inquiries that we need to be following, because it’s fake, it’s false information.

“It’s hurtful, it is harmful to the families, but it’s also then misdirecting police investigations.

“People have freedom of speech, but there is a line and what I would say to those members of the public is please do not cross that line.

He, too, would like to see social media companies helping remove misleading content sooner.

‘I wouldn’t wish it on anyone’

“I think what we need to do is work with those providers to make sure that when mis or disinformation is put on social media, that it’s removed at its earliest opportunity because otherwise it gains momentum,” he said.

That incessant flow of content is what Jay’s mum, Debbie Duncan has been hit by. She is determined to do all she can so that other families don’t have to go through the same ordeal.

“I wouldn’t wish it on anybody what we have been through,” she said while contemplating everything that’s happened.

She has kept boxes of cards and gifts in Jay’s bedroom at home in Lancashire – reminders of all the compassion and support they have received as well as the online hatred.

“It’s torture,” she said while looking at the many photos of her son.

“I just look at his picture and if it’s the last thing I can do for you Jay – I’ll try my blimmin’ hardest.”

Debbie’s petition can be found here.

UK

Police seize £80,000 of suspected stolen tools from car boot sale

Published

12 hours ago

December 19, 2025

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Police seize £80,000 of suspected stolen tools from car boot sale

Around £80,000 worth of suspected stolen power tools have been seized by police at a car boot sale in west London.

The Metropolitan Police recovered 400 items in the operation on 11 December.

Two men, aged 55 and 54, and two 15-year-old boys have been arrested on suspicion of handling stolen goods.

The objects seized by officers at the Hounslow Heath car boot sale included power drills, nail guns, electric saws, and a concrete mixer.

It comes after shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick visited the sale last month and posted a social media video highlighting concerns about the sale of suspected stolen goods.

The Met said its operation was in response to worries about tool theft and was working to identify the tools and trace their original owners.

Superintendent James Rawlinson, of Hounslow’s local neighbourhood policing team, said: “We are listening to Londoner’s concerns about tool theft because we understand the significant impact it has on tradespeople and their livelihoods.

“We are targeting the prolific offenders and organised criminal groups that drive this trade in stolen tools through proactive, intelligence-led operations.”

The force said tool theft between April and December was down 20.3%, compared with the same period last year as a result of Met operations targeting tool thieves.

Officers seized more than £500,000 worth of stolen tools during operations at two large-scale boot sales and associated premises in Romford and Rainham and made several arrests earlier this year.

Police have advised power tool owners to mark and take photographs of their property, and record the items’ serial numbers, to increase the chance of returning them if stolen.

UK

PM calls the doctor after disaster demise of the Prince of Darkness

Published

12 hours ago

December 19, 2025

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PM calls the doctor after disaster demise of the Prince of Darkness

Christian Turner is a mandarin’s mandarin. His appointment to the most glamorous posting in the UK diplomatic service is a victory for the Sir Humphreys over the politicians.

After the disaster and humiliation of Peter Mandelson‘s demise over his links to Jeffrey Epstein, it always made sense to appoint a scandal-free career diplomat as his successor.

Father-of-two Dr Turner is 53 but looks half his age. But his youthful appearance hides a long experience as a diplomat and civil servant serving prime ministers dating back to Tony Blair.

The Foreign Office announcement of his appointment describes him as “one of the UK’s most experienced diplomats”. And the top mandarins at the FCDO will be delighted they’ve got their man.

When Lord Mandelson was appointed last year, the senior cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Sky News the government had decided that he was “worth the risk”.

And what a risk it turned out to be. Will they never learn? “Mandy” – as he’s always been known in Westminster – had previously been forced to resign from the cabinet not once, but twice.

He declared in an angry and defiant victory speech when he held his Commons seat in Hartlepool: “I’m a fighter, not a quitter.” But not long after that, he quit to become a Brussels commissioner.

Dr Turner, on the other hand, has enjoyed a stellar and unblemished career as a diplomat. His most high-profile international post so far was high commissioner to Pakistan, where he was said to be immensely popular.

One of his earlier diplomatic posts was high commissioner in Kenya, when he had to lead the UK’s response to the Westgate Mall terrorist attack, in which 71 people were killed.

So he’s seen as a safe pair of hands and is unlikely to attract scandal and controversy in the way that his predecessor did, with his relationships with colourful tycoons and oligarchs as well as love of the high life.

Nevertheless, the Washington posting comes with some of the best perks in the diplomatic world, notably the luxurious Lutyens mansion that serves as the ambassador’s residence on Massachusetts Avenue.

Dr Turner saw off some distinguished rivals for the top job in the diplomatic service, including chief Varun Chandra, Sir Keir Starmer‘s business adviser, who is credited with being the architect of recent trade agreements with President Trump.

Until this week, he was seen as the frontrunner for the job, and as a sop for not getting the Washington post, he will now have an expanded role, including taking a lead role in trade talks with the US.

A late entry in what became a three-horse race was Nigel Casey, Britain’s ambassador in Moscow.

But ultimately, he was seen as indispensable in his current role, given the volatile relations with Vladimir Putin and the continuing war in Ukraine.

The PM interviewed all three candidates last week and his choice of Dr Turner is seen as a victory for Sir Olly Robbins, the Foreign Office’s top diplomat, whose career has prospered despite criticism of his role as the UK’s post-Brexit negotiator, over government ministers.

Insiders claim there will be champagne corks popping in the Foreign Office’s King Charles Street HQ because Dr Turner is their man and will report back to the FCDO rather than No 10.

If Lord Mandelson – the “prince of darkness” in his days as a Labour spin doctor – was seen as Sir Keir’s “Trump whisperer”, Dr Turner will be the PM’s – and, more importantly, the Foreign Office’s – eyes and ears.