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Apple reports fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell. The quarter, which ends in December, is Apple’s biggest of the year by sales and the first full sales period for the iPhone 15, which launched in September.

Apple faces significant challenges, coming off four straight quarters with revenue declines. Investors will be closely watching to see if Apple guides to growth again in the current quarter.

Concerns about demand in China, Apple’s third-largest region by sales, will weigh on the company. Its iPad and Mac units could also have a tough quarter, since demand for computers remains muted.

On the other hand, Apple could give strong updates to the number of active devices in use, a metric that analysts use to forecast the company’s lucrative services business. Management could also offer some perspective on how it sees the first few weeks of preorders for Apple’s virtual reality headset, the Vision Pro, as a bright spot.

Some analysts believe Apple’s iPhone revenue may look good in a soft market quarter, outperforming rivals that are also seeing weak demand. But a strong quarter of iPhone sales over the holiday season could mean a seasonally weak March quarter.

“With the robust sell-in volumes in F1Q24, current expectations from investors have moved to a modest beat led by robust iPhone numbers, even though accompanied on the flip-side by above-seasonal iPhone decline into F2Q,” JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote in a note Wednesday.

Apple hasn’t given official guidance since 2020, but management usually provides data points on a call that signal how it sees the quarter shaking out.

For example, the company signaled to investors in November that the December quarter may not show a significant return to growth after four straight quarters of declining sales, signaling that it would be “similar” to last year’s December total of $117.15 billion.

Apple said in November that the iPhone would do well but that it expects iPads and Wearables, including Apple Watch and AirPods, to decline from last year. It said that the Mac unit would do better than a 34% year-over-year decline.

China demand will be closely watched. Apple faces renewed competition from Huawei in the region, and some surveys have shown sagging sales.

“iPhone purchase intentions in China fell to a 5 year low this year, with iPhone loyalty/retention rates falling to the lowest levels since 2013, indicating both economic pressures on high-end iPhone purchases and greater competition within the China market,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note Wednesday.

IPhones were discounted in China during a shopping holiday called Singles Day, similar to the U.S. Amazon Prime Day, which may signal weak demand. But discounts can also drive sales.

“Apples revenue in China in F4Q declined -2.5% y/y and with limited drivers of growth in the region in F1Q (CounterPoint research indicating -9% y/y decline in units in China in C4Q for Apple), we expect investors will be focused on iPhone momentum following the recent price cuts,” Chatterjee wrote.

Beyond the nuts and bolts of Apple’s profit and loss during the December quarter, Thursday’s earnings report will be the first opportunity to hear from Apple management on how it sees the recent launch of its virtual reality headset, the Vision Pro.

The $3,500 device is expected to sell in small quantities this year, which means it won’t be material in terms of Apple’s business versus its mature product lines. The Vision Pro wasn’t sold in the December quarter — it only went up for preorder earlier this month and releases on Feb. 2. But many investors see Apple’s Vision Pro as a potential new major computing platform, with the ability to drive sales growth once future versions of the headset get cheaper. Any enthusiastic comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook about the device could stoke excitement.

“We remain comfortable with our current assumption of muted uptake for the device under 1% of Apple sales this year and next,” Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a note Wednesday.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for first-quarter revenue and earnings, and second-quarter outlook, according to LSEG consensus estimates:

  • Earnings per share: $2.10
  • Revenue: $117.91 billion
  • March quarter outlook: $1.57 earnings per share on $95.95 billion in revenue

Here’s what to expect from Apple’s product lines, according to StreetAccount consensus estimates:

  • iPhone revenue: $67.96 billion
  • Mac revenue: $7.80 billion
  • iPad revenue: $7.31 billion
  • Wearables revenue: $11.39 billion
  • Services revenue: $23.31 billion

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Microsoft AI chief Suleyman sees advantage in building models ‘3 or 6 months behind’

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Microsoft AI chief Suleyman sees advantage in building models ‘3 or 6 months behind’

Microsoft owns lots of Nvidia graphics processing units, but it isn’t using them to develop state-of-the-art artificial intelligence models.

There are good reasons for that position, Mustafa Suleyman, the company’s CEO of AI, told CNBC’s Steve Kovach in an interview on Friday. Waiting to build models that are “three or six months behind” offers several advantages, including lower costs and the ability to concentrate on specific use cases, Suleyman said.

It’s “cheaper to give a specific answer once you’ve waited for the first three or six months for the frontier to go first. We call that off-frontier,” he said. “That’s actually our strategy, is to really play a very tight second, given the capital-intensiveness of these models.”

Suleyman made a name for himself as a co-founder of DeepMind, the AI lab that Google bought in 2014, reportedly for $400 million to $650 million. Suleyman arrived at Microsoft last year alongside other employees of the startup Inflection, where he had been CEO.

More than ever, Microsoft counts on relationships with other companies to grow.

It gets AI models from San Francisco startup OpenAI and supplemental computing power from newly public CoreWeave in New Jersey. Microsoft has repeatedly enriched Bing, Windows and other products with OpenAI’s latest systems for writing human-like language and generating images.

Microsoft’s Copilot will gain “memory” to retain key facts about people who repeatedly use the assistant, Suleyman said Friday at an event in Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, headquarters to commemorate the company’s 50th birthday. That feature came first to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which has 500 million weekly users.

Through ChatGPT, people can access top-flight large language models such as the o1 reasoning model that takes time before spitting out an answer. OpenAI introduced that capability in September — only weeks later did Microsoft bring a similar capability called Think Deeper to Copilot.

Microsoft occasionally releases open-source small-language models that can run on PCs. They don’t require powerful server GPUs, making them different from OpenAI’s o1.

OpenAI and Microsoft have held a tight relationship shortly after the startup launched its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, effectively kicking off the generative AI race. In total, Microsoft has invested $13.75 billion in the startup, but more recently, fissures in the relationship between the two companies have begun to show.

Microsoft added OpenAI to its list of competitors in July 2024, and OpenAI in January announced that it was working with rival cloud provider Oracle on the $500 billion Stargate project. That came after years of OpenAI exclusively relying on Microsoft’s Azure cloud. Despite OpenAI partnering with Oracle, Microsoft in a blog post announced that the startup had “recently made a new, large Azure commitment.”

“Look, it’s absolutely mission-critical that long-term, we are able to do AI self-sufficiently at Microsoft,” Suleyman said. “At the same time, I think about these things over five and 10 year periods. You know, until 2030 at least, we are deeply partnered with OpenAI, who have [had an] enormously successful relationship for us.

Microsoft is focused on building its own AI internally, but the company is not pushing itself to build the most cutting-edge models, Suleyman said.

“We have an incredibly strong AI team, huge amounts of compute, and it’s very important to us that, you know, maybe we don’t develop the absolute frontier, the best model in the world first,” he said. “That’s very, very expensive to do and unnecessary to cause that duplication.”

WATCH: Microsoft Copilot beginning of a seismic shift in AI integration, says Microsoft AI CEO Suleyman

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Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer says, as shareholder, tariffs are ‘not good’

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Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer says, as shareholder, tariffs are 'not good'

President Trump’s new tariffs on goods that the U.S. imports from over 100 countries will have an effect on consumers, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told CNBC on Friday. Investors will feel the pain, too.

Microsoft’s stock dropped almost 6% in the past two days, as the Nasdaq wrapped up its worst week in five years.

“As a Microsoft shareholder, this kind of thing is not good,” Ballmer said, in an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin that was tied to Microsoft’s 50th anniversary celebration. “It creates opportunity to be a serious, long-term player.”

Ballmer was sandwiched in between Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and current CEO Satya Nadella for the interview.

“I took just enough economics in college — that tariffs are actually going to bring some turmoil,” said Ballmer, who was succeeded by Nadella in 2014. Gates, Microsoft’s first CEO, convinced Ballmer to join the company in 1980.

Gates, Ballmer and Nadella attended proceedings at Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, campus on Friday to celebrate its first half-century.

Between the tariffs and weak quarterly revenue guidance announced in January, Microsoft’s stock is on track for its fifth straight month of declines, which would be the worst stretch since 2009. But the company remains a leader in the PC operating system and productivity software markets, and its partnership with startup OpenAI has led to gains in cloud computing.

“I think that disruption is very hard on people, and so the decision to do something for which disruption was inevitable, that needs a lot of popular support, and nobody could game theorize exactly who is going to do what in response,” Ballmer said, regarding the tariffs. “So, I think citizens really like stability a lot. And I hope people — individuals who will feel this, because people are feeling it, not just the stock market, people are going to feel it.”

Ballmer, who owns the Los Angeles Clippers, is among Microsoft’s biggest fans. He said he’s the company’s largest investor. In 2014, shortly after he bought the basketball team for $2 billion, he held over 333 million shares of the stock, according to a regulatory filing.

“I’m not going to probably have 50 more years on the planet,” he said. “But whatever minutes I have, I’m gonna be a large Microsoft shareholder.” He said there’s a bright future for computing, storage and intelligence. Microsoft launched the first Azure services while Ballmer was CEO.

Earlier this week Bloomberg reported that Microsoft, which pledged to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data center infrastructure in the current fiscal year, has stopped discussions or pushed back the opening of facilities in the U.S. and abroad.

JPMorgan Chase’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, said in a Thursday note that the chance of a global recession will be 60% if Trump’s tariffs kick in as described. His previous estimate was 40%.

“Fifty years from now, or 25 years from now, what is the one thing you can be guaranteed of, is the world needs more compute,” Nadella said. “So I want to keep those two thoughts and then take one step at a time, and then whatever are the geopolitical or economic shifts, we’ll adjust to it.”

Gates, who along with co-founder Paul Allen, sought to build a software company rather than sell both software and hardware, said he wasn’t sure what the economic effects of the tariffs will be. Today, most of Microsoft’s revenue comes from software. It also sells Surface PCs and Xbox consoles.

“So far, it’s just on goods, but you know, will it eventually be on services? Who knows?” said Gates, who reportedly donated around $50 million to a nonprofit that supported Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ losing campaign.

— CNBC’s Alex Harring contributed to this report.

WATCH: There will be many LLM winners, says infrastructure investor Morrison

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AppLovin can offer TikTok ‘much stronger bid than others,’ CEO says

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AppLovin can offer TikTok 'much stronger bid than others,' CEO says

Piotr Swat | Lightrocket | Getty Images

AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi provided more clarity on the ad-tech company’s late-stage effort to acquire TikTok, calling his offer a “much stronger bid than others” on CNBC’s The Exchange Friday afternoon.

Foroughi said the company is proposing a merger between AppLovin and the entire global business of TikTok, characterizing the deal as a “partnership” where the Chinese could participate in the upside while AppLovin would run the app.

“If you pair our algorithm with the TikTok audience, the expansion on that platform for dollars spent will be through the roof,” Foroughi said.

The news comes as President Trump announced he would extend the deadline a second time for TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance to sell the U.S. subsidiary of TikTok to an American buyer or face an effective ban on U.S. app stores. The new deadline is now in June, which, as Foroughi described, “buys more time to put the pieces together” on AppLovin’s bid. 

“The president’s a great dealmaker — we’re proposing, essentially an enhancement to the deal that they’ve been working on, but a bigger version of all the deals contemplated,” he added.

AppLovin faces a crowded field of other interested U.S. backers, including Amazon, Oracle, billionaire Frank McCourt and his Project Liberty consortium, and numerous private equity firms. Some proposals reportedly structure the deal to give a U.S. buyer 50% ownership of the company, rather than a complete acquisition. The Chinese government will still need to approve the deal, and AppLovin’s interest in purchasing TikTok in “all markets outside of China” is “preliminary,” according to an April 3 SEC filing.

Correction: A prior version of this story incorrectly characterized China’s ongoing role in TikTok should AppLovin acquire the app.

WATCH: AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi on its bid to buy TikTok

AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi on its bid to buy TikTok

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