Apple reports fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell. The quarter, which ends in December, is Apple’s biggest of the year by sales and the first full sales period for the iPhone 15, which launched in September.
Apple faces significant challenges, coming off four straight quarters with revenue declines. Investors will be closely watching to see if Apple guides to growth again in the current quarter.
Concerns about demand in China, Apple’s third-largest region by sales, will weigh on the company. Its iPad and Mac units could also have a tough quarter, since demand for computers remains muted.
On the other hand, Apple could give strong updates to the number of active devices in use, a metric that analysts use to forecast the company’s lucrative services business. Management could also offer some perspective on how it sees the first few weeks of preorders for Apple’s virtual reality headset, the Vision Pro, as a bright spot.
Some analysts believe Apple’s iPhone revenue may look good in a soft market quarter, outperforming rivals that are also seeing weak demand. But a strong quarter of iPhone sales over the holiday season could mean a seasonally weak March quarter.
“With the robust sell-in volumes in F1Q24, current expectations from investors have moved to a modest beat led by robust iPhone numbers, even though accompanied on the flip-side by above-seasonal iPhone decline into F2Q,” JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote in a note Wednesday.
Apple hasn’t given official guidance since 2020, but management usually provides data points on a call that signal how it sees the quarter shaking out.
For example, the company signaled to investors in November that the December quarter may not show a significant return to growth after four straight quarters of declining sales, signaling that it would be “similar” to last year’s December total of $117.15 billion.
Apple said in November that the iPhone would do well but that it expects iPads and Wearables, including Apple Watch and AirPods, to decline from last year. It said that the Mac unit would do better than a 34% year-over-year decline.
China demand will be closely watched. Apple faces renewed competition from Huawei in the region, and some surveys have shown sagging sales.
“iPhone purchase intentions in China fell to a 5 year low this year, with iPhone loyalty/retention rates falling to the lowest levels since 2013, indicating both economic pressures on high-end iPhone purchases and greater competition within the China market,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note Wednesday.
IPhones were discounted in China during a shopping holiday called Singles Day, similar to the U.S. Amazon Prime Day, which may signal weak demand. But discounts can also drive sales.
“Apples revenue in China in F4Q declined -2.5% y/y and with limited drivers of growth in the region in F1Q (CounterPoint research indicating -9% y/y decline in units in China in C4Q for Apple), we expect investors will be focused on iPhone momentum following the recent price cuts,” Chatterjee wrote.
Beyond the nuts and bolts of Apple’s profit and loss during the December quarter, Thursday’s earnings report will be the first opportunity to hear from Apple management on how it sees the recent launch of its virtual reality headset, the Vision Pro.
The $3,500 device is expected to sell in small quantities this year, which means it won’t be material in terms of Apple’s business versus its mature product lines. The Vision Pro wasn’t sold in the December quarter — it only went up for preorder earlier this month and releases on Feb. 2. But many investors see Apple’s Vision Pro as a potential new major computing platform, with the ability to drive sales growth once future versions of the headset get cheaper. Any enthusiastic comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook about the device could stoke excitement.
“We remain comfortable with our current assumption of muted uptake for the device under 1% of Apple sales this year and next,” Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a note Wednesday.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for first-quarter revenue and earnings, and second-quarter outlook, according to LSEG consensus estimates:
Earnings per share: $2.10
Revenue: $117.91 billion
March quarter outlook: $1.57 earnings per share on $95.95 billion in revenue
Here’s what to expect from Apple’s product lines, according to StreetAccount consensus estimates:
Elon Musk’s SpaceX, is initiating a secondary share sale that would give the company a valuation of up to $800 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
SpaceX is also telling some investors it will consider going public possibly around the end of next year, the report said.
At the elevated price, Musk’s aerospace and defense contractor would be valued above ChatGPT maker OpenAI, which wrapped up a share sale at a $500 billion valuation in October.
SpaceX has been investing heavily in reusable rockets, launch facilities and satellites, while competing for government contracts with newer space players, including Jeff Bezos‘ Blue Origin. SpaceX is far ahead, and operates the world’s largest network of satellites in low earth orbit through Starlink, which powers satellite internet services under the same brand name.
A SpaceX IPO would include its Starlink business, which the company previously considered spinning out.
Musk recently discussed whether SpaceX would go public during Tesla‘s annual shareholders meeting last month. Musk, who is the CEO of both companies, said he doesn’t love running publicly traded businesses, in part because they draw “spurious lawsuits,” and can “make it very difficult to operate effectively.”
However, Musk said during the meeting that he wanted to “try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX,” adding, “maybe at some point, SpaceX should become a public company despite all the downsides.”
The logo for Google LLC is seen at the Google Store Chelsea in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., November 17, 2021.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
A U.S. judge on Friday finalized his decision for the consequences Google will face for its search monopoly ruling, adding new details to the decided remedies.
Last year, Google was found to hold an illegal monopoly in its core market of internet search, and in September, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled against the most severe consequences that were proposed by the Department of Justice.
That included the proposal of a forced sale of Google’s Chrome browser, which provides data that helps the company’s advertising business deliver targeted ads. Alphabet shares popped 8% in extended trading as investors celebrated what they viewed as minimal consequences from a historic defeat last year in the landmark antitrust case.
Investors largely shrugged off the ruling as non-impactful to Google. However some told CNBC it’s still a bite that could “sting.”
Mehta on Friday issued additional details for his ruling in new filings.
“The age-old saying ‘the devil is in the details’ may not have been devised with the drafting of an antitrust remedies judgment in mind, but it sure does fit,” Mehta wrote in one of the Friday filings.
Google did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The company has previously said it will appeal the remedies.
In August 2024, Mehta ruled that Google violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act and held a monopoly in search and related advertising. The antitrust trial started in September 2023.
In his September decision, Mehta said the company would be able to make payments to preload products, but it could not have exclusive contracts that condition payments or licensing. Google was also ordered to loosen its hold on search data. Mehta in September also ruled that Google would have to make available certain search index data and user interaction data, though “not ads data.”
The DOJ had asked Google to stop the practice of “compelled syndication,” which refers to the practice of making certain deals with companies to ensure its search engine remains the default choice in browsers and smartphones.
The judge’s September ruling didn’t end the practice entirely — Mehta ruled out that Google couldn’t enter into exclusive deals, which was a win for the company. Google pays Apple billions of dollars per year to be the default search engine on iPhones. It’s lucrative for Apple and a valuable way for Google to get more search volume and users.
Mehta’s new details
In the Friday filings, Mehta wrote that Google cannot enter into any deal like the one it’s had with Apple “unless the agreement terminates no more than one year after the date it is entered.”
This includes deals involving generative artificial intelligence products, including any “application, software, service, feature, tool, functionality, or product” that involve or use genAI or large-language models, Mehta wrote.
GenAI “plays a significant role in these remedies,” Mehta wrote.
The judge also reiterated the web index data it will require Google to share with certain competitors.
Google has to share some of the raw search interaction data it uses to train its ranking and AI systems, but it does not have to share the actual algorithms — just the data that feeds them.” In September, Mehta said those data sets represent a “small fraction” of Google’s overall traffic, but argued the company’s models are trained on data that contributed to Google’s edge over competitors.
The company must make this data available to qualified competitors at least twice, one of the Friday filing states. Google must share that data in a “syndication license” model whose term will be five years from the date the license is signed, the filing states.
Mehta on Friday also included requirements on the makeup of a technical committee that will determine the firms Google must share its data with.
Committee “members shall be experts in some combination of software engineering, information retrieval, artificial intelligence, economics, behavioral science, and data privacy and data security,” the filing states.
The judge went on to say that no committee member can have a conflict of interest, such as having worked for Google or any of its competitors in the six months prior to or one year after serving in the role.
Google is also required to appoint an internal compliance officer that will be responsible “for administering Google’s antitrust compliance program and helping to ensure compliance with this Final Judgment,” per one of the filings. The company must also appoint a senior business executive “whom Google shall make available to update the Court on Google’s compliance at regular status conferences or as otherwise ordered.”
Amazon made plenty of news this week — from advances in the cloud business to questions about its partnership with the U.S. Postal Service — leaving investors with a lot to digest. The flurry of headlines comes at the end of a challenging year. The e-commerce and cloud giant’s stock is up 4.6%, compared to the broad market S & P 500’s 16.4%, and well behind all of its Magnificent Seven peers. Despite the company showing reaccelerating growth in AWS and enhancements to its dominant Prime e-commerce ecosystem, investors remain concerned that it is losing ground in the AI race and could face margin pressure from tariffs. We believe the company has turned a corner. “A better year is ahead as management continues to prove out its AI strategy and expand operating margins,” Jeff Marks, portfolio director for Club, wrote in a report on Thursday, highlighting stocks that are set up for a bounce back in 2026. Here’s how this week’s news fits into that investment thesis: Upbeat updates at cloud event News: During Amazon ‘s annual re:Invent 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman unveiled Trainium3 , the latest version of the company’s in-house custom chip. It delivers four times the compute performance, energy efficiency, and memory bandwidth of previous generations. AWS also announced that it is already working on Trainium4. The company also revealed a series of cloud products, including advanced AI-driven platforms and agents that help customers automate workloads. Our take: We were pleased to hear that AWS continues to innovate its chip offerings to diversify its reliance on Nvidia , the industry leader in graphics processing units (GPUs). However, most of the investor focus is on bringing data center capacity online. Amazon needs to buy more Nvidia chips to catch up in AI. Also, Jim Cramer interviewed AWS CEO Matt Garman on “Mad Money” earlier this week, who was upbeat about the future growth of the cloud business. USPS ties tested News: According to a Washington Post report, Amazon could sever its relationship with the USPS when its contract expires in October 2026. Amazon likely considered the move, as it already has a shadow postal service, Amazon Logistics, that handles billions of packages annually. By removing USPS as the middleman, Amazon would have complete financial and operational control. Amazon refuted the report . Our take: For years, the e-commerce and cloud giant invested billions of dollars to build a vast logistics network that is now delivering more packages in the U.S. than UPS and FedEx . It still uses the USPS for delivery of small, low-weight packages, especially those from third-party Amazon sellers. USPS is also helpful for “last-mile delivery” in difficult-to-serve geographic areas. If the company were to eliminate the Postal Service as a middleman, it could further reduce its cost to serve, thereby improving margins. Possible IPO payday News: Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude chatbot, is reportedly in talks to launch one of the biggest IPOs ever in early 2026, according to the Financial Times. Anthropic responded that it had no immediate plans for an IPO and instead is “keeping our options open,” Anthropic chief communications officer Sasha de Marigny said at an Axios event in New York City on Thursday. Our take: An Anthropic public offering could be a massive payday for Amazon, which has invested about $8 billion in Anthropic. As part of that investment, Anthropic partnered with AWS as its primary cloud provider and training partner to run its massive AI training and inference workloads. An Anthropic IPO would elevate the AI startup and thereby enhance AWS’s dominance as the best-in-class cloud provider. Ultra-fast grocery delivery News: Amazon said it is testing an ultra-fast delivery service for fresh groceries, everyday essentials, and popular items, available in as little as 30 minutes, starting in Seattle and Philadelphia. Amazon Prime members get discounted delivery fees starting at $3.99 per order, compared with $13.99 for non-Prime customers. Club take: Amazon has continued to expand into online grocery and essentials, as customers increasingly opt to shop for daily essentials with the online retailer. While the retail business comes with thin margins, Amazon continues to operate it with an eye on reducing its cost to serve, which should help improve margins over time. Amazon is already second in line as the top U.S. retailer, right behind Walmart in terms of U.S. online grocery sales. As it continues to make headway in the industry, Amazon should be able to capitalize on this significant growth opportunity, especially as it harnesses its advanced AI capabilities for optimal inventory placement and demand forecasting. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AMZN, NVDA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. 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