The best untold stories of Nick Saban from Kirby Smart, Lane Kiffin and more former assistants
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Chris Low
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Chris Low
ESPN Senior Writer
- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
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Harry Lyles Jr.
THEY HAD A front-row seat for coaching greatness.
The coaches who came and went under Nick Saban, many of whom are now running their own programs, are like everybody else in the college football world. They’re still processing Saban’s retirement and have been since he announced Jan. 10 that he was walking away from coaching after winning seven national championships, six at Alabama and one at LSU.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart joked that he would like to fly all the coaches who worked under Saban to his new home in Jupiter Island, Florida, bring in a film crew and simply sit around and tell stories about Saban’s legendary career.
This is ESPN’s attempt to do just that, as we talked to 11 members of the Saban coaching tree, viewing the legendary leader through the eyes of the people who know him best.
Saban’s protégés, including Mark Dantonio from their Michigan State days, Jimbo Fisher from their time at LSU and Smart, Mario Cristobal, Lane Kiffin, Dan Lanning, Steve Sarkisian, Mike Locksley and more from Saban’s 17-year run at Alabama, share their most memorable, funny and moving moments and break down what made him one of the greatest coaches of all time.
From Saban’s decision to replace Jalen Hurts with Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the 2017 national championship game to helping Sarkisian pick up the pieces of his life. We learn what Kiffin did to provoke an epic “ass-chewing,” about Smart’s awkward first interview and Fisher’s shared “West Virginia hillbilly” ties with his former boss/nemesis. We get insight into Saban’s softer side and some blow-by-blow accounts of Saban’s pickup basketball games.
One spoiler on those hoops games: Very rarely was Saban fouled.
‘It’s like dog years working for me?!’: Untold Saban stories
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has joked over the years that he received his share of “ass-chewings” from Saban during his time at Alabama. But nothing rises to the level of the one he endured during the 2016 fall camp.
The team was in a “good-on-good” drill, pitting the starting offensive players vs. the starters on defense, and even though Kiffin had been warned by other coaches not to go overboard and try to make Saban’s defense look bad, Kiffin couldn’t resist. He was hired in 2014 as Saban’s offensive coordinator with the specific goal of helping modernize Alabama’s offense.
“I’d come from the Pete Carroll camp. I wasn’t wired that way, to let the defense win,” said Kiffin, who spent three turbulent but successful seasons as Saban’s offensive coordinator.
Kiffin had several coaches on his offensive staff present different types of plays, or what one of those assistants recently referred to as “cool plays,” and put them in before practice. Everybody in the offensive staff room knew Saban wouldn’t be pleased.
“We had a really good day on offense, ran some reverses, threw a double pass and had all these touchdowns, and he said that all I was trying to do was win the drill and trick the defense and not help the team,” Kiffin said. “I was like, ‘Isn’t that the point in good-on-good situations on offense, to see if you can move the ball?’
“He was furious.”
His ears ringing from the chewing-out the day before, Kiffin changed it up the next practice.
“Stubborn old Lane, I ran the most generic, basic, under-center offense I could, sort of their old-school offense they ran under Joe Pendry,” Kiffin said. “And the defense killed us. We’d be third-and-8, and I’d have the quarterback under center.”
In the staff meeting afterward, Saban was again miffed and wanted an explanation from Kiffin on why he was going under center on third-and-long and running the ball.
“‘I’m just running what I thought you would want me to run against the defense,'” Kiffin answered. “Again, it was just me being smart-ass me.”
At that point, Saban cleared everybody out of the room except Kiffin, who knew what was coming.
“I have to sit there, and he is screaming at me, standing over me screaming as I’m sitting in my chair. I thought he was going to fight me physically,” said Kiffin, who can laugh about it now. “So, yes, I got a lot of ass-chewings, but that’s the biggest one and one that no one saw. But I deserved it.”
Saban, however, had one last salvo, which Kiffin and the offensive coaches from that staff still find hilarious. Saban compared Kiffin to a children’s book character, P.J. Funnybunny, a spoiled bunny who went around creating havoc.
“He screamed at me that I was the bunny,” Kiffin said, “and we were like, ‘What the hell is that? There’s no way Coach has read a little kid’s bedtime story like that!'”
SMART WILL NEVER forget his first interview with Saban in 2004 when Smart was up for a job at LSU as defensive backs coach. Smart was a graduate assistant at Florida State at the time, and his old pal Will Muschamp, then Saban’s defensive coordinator at LSU, had vouched for him.
“I go on the interview, and I’m young and unassuming, and there are all these stories out there that if Miss Terry [Saban’s wife] invites you to the house for dinner, she had to give you the OK. And if you didn’t get the OK, then you weren’t going to get the job.”
Lance Thompson was leaving LSU to take the UCF defensive coordinator’s job. Smart remembers Thompson, who worked under Saban two different times, telling Smart in passing: “Working for Nick is like dog years. Every year feels like seven.”
Smart visited the Saban home on Super Bowl Sunday, and they were all sitting around and talking after dinner.
“I was comfortable and feeling good about the way it was going, and I just say, ‘I don’t get it. People say working here is like dog years.’ I don’t know why in the hell I said that. Just dumb,” Smart said. “Think about it. Why would you ever say something like that to an employer you’re trying to get a job with? But I did. I guess I wasn’t overwhelmed or intimidated. I was too young to know any better.”
The next morning, Smart got a call from Muschamp after that day’s LSU staff meeting. Muschamp told Smart that an irate Saban barked to everybody in the staff room: “Which one of you dumbasses said it’s like dog years working for me? We’re trying to hire the guy, and you tell him that?”
Smart is still sheepish about it all these years later.
“I got the whole staff cussed out and somehow still got the job.”
MIAMI COACH MARIO Cristobal was Saban’s offensive line coach for four seasons at Alabama before moving to Oregon as co-offensive coordinator and later head coach. A second-generation Cuban American who grew up in Miami, Cristobal said driving to see recruits with Saban was always an adventure, especially with Saban being a renowned back-seat driver, something to which every coach who ever went out on the road with him will attest.
One time, Saban and Cristobal were driving to see a recruit in Iowa, and it was snowing heavily.
“I didn’t know how to drive in the snow, and we were almost crashing,” Cristobal said.
Saban looked at Cristobal and asked quizzically, “Tell me, man, there ain’t no snow in Cuba. Why the hell are you driving?”
OREGON COACH DAN Lanning got a taste of what working for Saban was like on one of his first days on the job as a graduate assistant at Alabama — and at Saban’s youth football camp, no less.
“I’m part of the group that’s running the bag drills. It’s not something unique, but Nick had a way that he wanted to run those drills. And it’s one of the first times I remember getting my butt chewed,” Lanning said. “The strength coach was running the drill and then he had to leave and go run the drill for our actual guys. So I had it, but I wasn’t doing a good job of paying attention to how Nick wanted the drill run.
“I learned quickly that I was running the drill wrong — and I’m talking about sixth- and seventh-graders. It wasn’t like these are the guys we’re about to coach. And it was just a great reminder to me: Pay attention to details. For me to get my best butt-chewing during kids camp, I think that just shows the intensity of Nick.”
WHEN SABAN CONTRACTED COVID-19 during the 2020 national championship season, he had to quarantine at home. But that didn’t mean he missed practice. He was there — just not physically.
Saban had Alabama officials set up cameras so he could watch practice from home via Zoom.
“We know he’s watching practice from home, and after practice, we bring it up [in the middle of the field] like we would if he was there. It was just routine,” said Marshall coach Charles Huff, who was Alabama’s running backs coach at the time.
As the team gathered, Saban’s football chief operating officer, Ellis Ponder, rolled a 19-inch television set on a stand onto the field in the indoor practice facility. Saban addressed the team on video just as he would have if he had been there in the flesh.
“And at the end, he holds up his hand and goes, ‘One, two, three,’ and everybody yells, ‘Team,'” Huff said. “It was like ‘Saw,’ the movie where the little TV rolls in, and boom, that doll pops up and gives you instructions.”
THERE WAS NO basking in championships under Saban, even after winning it all.
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key remembers traveling back home after winning the 2017 national championship, which was Saban’s fifth at Alabama. The game was on a Monday night, and the team returned to campus the next day. On Wednesday morning, there was a staff meeting, and there was very little reflection from Saban.
“He comes in, sits down and is like, ‘Guys, congratulations on a good season. We overcame a lot of adversity. We had injuries. We had guys prepared to come back,'” Key recalled.
But everybody in the room knew a “but” was coming, and with colorful language.
“But that was last year. We’re behind in recruiting. We shouldn’t have been behind in that game,” Saban said, his voice rising.
Saban had already moved on to the next challenge.
Key remembers looking over at current Maryland coach Mike Locksley, who was in his second season at Alabama as receivers coach.
“Locks goes, ‘Damn, that was yesterday! I just won my first national championship. Like, that just happened yesterday. I’m still hungover,'” Key said, laughing.
“That’s it in a nutshell, man.”
‘Is Coach OK?’: Saban’s softer side
When Kiffin’s three children were young, he remembers getting an invitation to the Sabans’ house for Easter. His first thought was: “I’m not getting yelled at on Easter. I get yelled at enough at the football complex.”
Kiffin’s former wife, Layla, was in town with the kids and convinced him to go.
“It was amazing. Coach was completely different,” Kiffin said. “I think his first grandchild had just been born, and he was walking around with [Kiffin’s son] Knox and helping him find an egg. I was like, ‘Is Coach OK?’ Because I’d never really seen that side of him before.”
Kiffin had a similar experience with Tom Coughlin earlier in his career while working with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
“Seeing that side of Coach Saban, it’s then that I understood that two of the most demanding coaches I’ve worked for were one way at home and then one way when they walked into that football building,” Kiffin said. “They felt like they had to be that way, to hold people accountable, to be tough on people, and obviously it worked because they’re both legendary coaches.
“But it was cool seeing that side of Coach Saban.”
FLORIDA COACH BILLY Napier said Saban and his wife, Terry, who have been married for 52 years, were an unbelievable team in the way they took care of their coaches and the coaches’ families.
“Don’t underestimate the impact Miss Terry had on him and all that touched that program,” Napier said. “I was always grateful when I got there in 2011 after being let go as offensive coordinator at Clemson and kind of starting my career over. He believed in me and gave me another chance, the same thing he’s done for so many coaches.”
More than just a professional boost, Napier feels even more indebted to the Sabans from a personal standpoint.
“People don’t see some of the things that he does for you behind the scenes, both he and Miss Terry,” Napier said. “My wife went through some things medically, and they were there for us. They take care of their people. My dad got diagnosed with ALS my first year as a receivers coach. I wasn’t worth a wood nickel that year, and Coach Saban helped me navigate that when I probably didn’t do my job to the best of my ability. But he had a pulse for how challenging that was for me and guided me through it.”
TEXAS COACH STEVE Sarkisian has said several times that Saban saved his career when he brought Sarkisian on as an analyst in 2016 after alcohol issues led to his firing at USC.
“He believed in me at a time when I was having a hard time even getting an interview,” Sarkisian said.
Following Texas’ 34-24 victory over Alabama last season in Tuscaloosa, Sarkisian made sure Saban knew how much he meant to him.
“None of this would’ve been possible without you,” Sarkisian told Saban at midfield.
One of only three former assistants to beat Saban, along with Smart and Fisher, Sarkisian thought about that moment at Bryant-Denny Stadium when he heard Saban was retiring.
“As great as it was for us to go and get that win, that would never have been possible without Nick Saban, ironically,” Sarkisian said. “To think that was where I kind of resurrected my career, in that stadium with him, to have that moment — which was our biggest moment in three years here — was something I won’t forget. I’m forever grateful that he and Miss Terry were both there for me at a tough time in my life.”
‘There’s no turning back’: Decisive calls, memorable moments
One of Saban’s most memorable in-game decisions was making the switch from Jalen Hurts, who was 25-2 as Alabama’s starting quarterback, to true freshman Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the Crimson Tide’s come-from-behind 26-23 win over Georgia to capture the 2017 national championship. Tagovailoa’s 41-yard touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith in overtime won the title for the Tide.
Alabama trailed 13-0 at the half and hadn’t been able to generate any offense. A week earlier, the Tide scored only two offensive touchdowns in a semifinal win over Clemson.
“We come into the locker room at halftime of that Georgia game, and the first question Nick has is, ‘What the hell is going on? What do we need to do to get the offense going?'” Locksley said.
Locksley was then the receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator. His younger receivers were already restless about not being more involved in the passing game. Locksley looked around the locker room and spoke up.
“‘Coach, if you’re asking my opinion and you want to get the offense going, let’s give Tua a shot,'” Locksley recalled saying. “I said, ‘I’ll talk to Jalen, and if it doesn’t work, we can always go back to Jalen.'”
Any critical decision was always Saban’s call, but he wanted input from his coaches, especially in tough situations, and that’s something else that set him apart, according to Locksley.
“There was never a flinch whatsoever on his part to make that move,” Locksley said. “But you’ve also got to remember that he’s the same guy that made a decision a year before when we lost the championship to go with a new playcaller [Sarkisian] for the championship game. That’s the thing about Coach. He listens to people, but he’s the one that makes the decision. And when he does, there’s no turning back.”
Locksley said he’s not sure Saban could have managed the whole Hurts-Tagovailoa situation any better. Tagovailoa had taken most of the first-team reps prior to the semifinal against Clemson after Hurts got the flu.
“I’m not sure the ball hit the ground in any of those practices,” Locksley said. “Tua was unbelievable.”
But when Tagovailoa didn’t start against Clemson, Locksley said Tagovailoa was boiling mad and ready to transfer. It was a similar story with Hurts after he was benched in the national title game. After all, he had lost only two games as a starter — and one of those was the national championship game against Clemson the year before, when his 30-yard touchdown run gave Alabama the lead with a little more than two minutes remaining.
“It’s never easy to juggle those types of things. Only one quarterback can play, but Coach does a great job of managing it and allowing the people who are closest to the players to be a big part of it,” Locksley said. “And then in 2018, it was almost a reversal. Jalen comes in and saves us in the SEC championship game. He was ready. Those things don’t happen by accident. The tone is set at the top.”
CRISTOBAL ARRIVED AT Alabama in 2013, the year after the Crimson Tide lost to Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa. The pregame meeting the next year in College Station remains etched in Cristobal’s mind.
“Every detail in those meetings is covered, from where the sun rises and sets, does it affect the returners, the referees, what they are prone to calling, all that stuff,” Cristobal said.
The Tide had heard all offseason that they were going to have to go play at Kyle Field, and that Manziel, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was going to light them up again. Cristobal said the mood in the locker room was uptight, and Saban sensed it right away.
“Hey man, ain’t no one going to die today, you know?” Saban insisted. “Get your asses focused and enthused about this opportunity we have today. Ain’t no one going to die.”
Cristobal said the tension was immediately relieved.
“We got back to business,” Cristobal said. “He had a knack for doing stuff that made everybody in the organization better.”
Alabama beat Texas A&M 49-42 in one of the best college football games of the year.
THE WEEK BEFORE the 2016 national championship game, Saban abruptly cut ties with Kiffin, who was his offensive coordinator and playcaller for Alabama’s semifinal win over Washington. Saban had Sarkisian, then an offensive analyst, call plays for the title game against Clemson; the Tigers would beat the Tide 35-31 on a last-second touchdown. Kiffin had been named Florida Atlantic’s coach a few weeks earlier, and Saban didn’t feel Kiffin was fully invested in his duties at Alabama.
After Saban retired, Kiffin said he reached out to reiterate what he has told Saban almost every time he has seen him since that parting.
“I just told him that I appreciated him so much, and as I look back now at any issues we had between us, they were 100 percent my fault,” Kiffin said. “I didn’t see it at the time, but I see it now.
“It’s a lot like being a parent. You don’t always understand when you’re a kid and your parents are telling you things, but then you get older and have your own kids, and you’re like, ‘OK, now I get it.'”
Kiffin said he apologized for being so difficult, but that Saban was very gracious and talked about what a good run they had together — three SEC championships, three College Football Playoff appearances, one national title and a 40-3 record, including a 26-game winning streak to end their three years together.
“I would have really struggled with myself as an assistant coach at that stage, and I told Coach that,” Kiffin said. “Now I’m the head coach, and I see that. Yes, I would have liked me on game day because there was a lot of success and all the plays that we created. All that stuff would have been great, but always questioning things, wanting to know why and arguing back. … I don’t think I would have put up with it as a head coach.”
SABAN AND FISHER were raised a “few hollers over,” as Jimbo would say, in West Virginia, but they were never what you would call close friends after their days of working together at LSU from 2000 to 2004. Their relationship seemingly went up in flames prior to the 2022 season.
You’ve heard this part before. Saban, who once called Fisher the best offensive coordinator he ever had at the college or pro level, said at a May 18, 2022, fundraiser that Texas A&M “bought” all its players in the previous signing class with name, image and likeness deals. An enraged Fisher, then the Aggies’ coach, fired back the next day in a hastily called news conference. He called Saban a “narcissist” and described Saban’s comments as “despicable.” Saban later apologized and said he shouldn’t have singled out specific schools, but he didn’t back down on his stance that NIL was being used as a guise for pay-for-play.
Fisher said he hasn’t talked to Saban since his retirement, but is glad to see his old boss walking away when he’s young and healthy enough to do some of the other things he wants.
“I know everybody thinks we’re enemies because I said what I said, but I truly believe Nick’s a good guy and a genuine guy,” said Fisher, who was fired toward the end of the 2023 season at Texas A&M. “Now, Nick likes to win and will do what he needs to do to win. We all will. Maybe it’s the West Virginia hillbilly in us. We like to hit you and scratch you. But at the end of the day, we give a s—. That’s the way we grew up.
“I remember when we got to LSU, Nick was sort of an outsider, hadn’t coached in the SEC and really hadn’t won crazily. But none of that fazed him. You could see his vision right away, his tenacity to do it the way he knew it had to be done despite what anybody else thought. There was nothing outside his program that affected him.
“A lot of it is that we’re the same guy, Nick and me, and are point-blank about what’s on our minds.”
‘If I want to call a timeout, I’ll call a damn timeout’
Throughout his coaching career, Saban loved organizing pickup 3-on-3 basketball games with his coaches at lunchtime. Only in the offseason, mind you.
The games at times were intense, and legend has it that Saban picked the teams and occasionally picked who would guard him. At Alabama, that guy often was current Arkansas State athletic director Jeff Purinton, who was then one of Saban’s most trusted confidants as associate athletic director for football communications.
“My first years with him, I loved it and looked forward to it. My last six years, I dreaded it,” Smart said with a laugh.
Smart participated in those games at all three of his coaching stops with Saban.
“We played outside when we were with the Miami Dolphins, some great games,” said Smart, noting that current South Carolina receivers coach James Coley and former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett were part of the games.
One of the funnier stories, and Smart says Coley tells it best, was when Saban was at LSU. They went from 4-on-4 to 3-on-3, making it a faster-paced game. Coley said Saban, in his mid-50s at the time, became winded and called timeout after a loose ball. But Stan Hixon, who was on Saban’s team, was the only one who heard Saban call timeout. Derek Dooley was on the opposite team and thought Hixon had called the timeout. Dooley yelled, “There’s no timeouts out here.”
Dooley had no idea the call came from Saban, and Saban was none too pleased.
“Hey Derek, I’m 50 years old, and I’m about to have a heart attack. If I want to call a timeout, I’ll call a damn timeout,” Saban huffed.
1:55
Nick Saban on where it all began for him as a coach
In 2018, Nick Saban told the story of the exact moment he started thinking like a coach.
Fisher said he and Saban were always on the same team during their LSU years. They would play on the practice court underneath the Pete Maravich Assembly Center.
“We’d always go to 11. Nick was the point guard, and I was the shooting guard,” said Fisher, who was Saban’s offensive coordinator at the time. “Our third player would vary. I mean, we’d go at it too. I wasn’t going to lose, and neither was Nick. I’d score about nine of our points, and he’d score the other two. He could handle the ball and shoot, but I could shoot from long range. It was some serious basketball.”
Former Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt, who worked two stints under Saban at Alabama, joked that he was banged up all the time because he was constantly diving for loose balls to impress Saban, especially those first few years when Pruitt was a younger, off-field staff member.
Saban continued with his lunchtime games until spring 2019 before having hip replacement surgery. Those early years at Alabama were the best, according to Smart.
The Alabama assistants had an hour for lunch, but they were required by Saban to make recruiting calls during the break.
“So the coaches that he demanded play basketball over that lunch hour would show up across the street at Coleman Coliseum with their phones in their hands making recruiting calls,” Smart said. “Nick would jog down the steps, and we all made sure he saw us making calls before the games started.”
Kiffin doesn’t have any hoops stories because he strategically made it a point not to participate.
“I knew better,” Kiffin said. “When I got there, they told me all about the games and how Coach picks the teams and that if you cover him, you can’t foul him and probably should let him score some. And I’m like, ‘Wrong dude. That ain’t happening. I’ll just go for a jog or something.’
“I knew if I went over there, it probably wasn’t going to go well. So I never once went and played basketball.”
‘Nobody does that’: What makes Saban unique
Smart’s Bulldogs have won two of the past three national championships, and of Saban’s former assistants, he is probably the most like his old boss. Both defensive masterminds, they were together for four of Saban’s six national titles at Alabama.
“His ability to manage and motivate people was unlike anything I’ve seen, and I mean everybody in the organization,” said Smart, who beat Saban to capture the 2021 national championship but was winless in their other five meetings as a head coach.
“He leads by example. Nobody outworks Nick. He doesn’t hold you to a different standard than he holds himself. He’s smart and that’s one thing, but his message always has a purpose. Everything’s calculated, and he just does it better than everybody else.”
Saban was 31-3 against his former assistants, with one of those losses coming this past season to Sarkisian, who guided the Longhorns to their first CFP appearance and their first 12-win season since 2009. Sarkisian, the offensive coordinator on Alabama’s 2020 national championship team, marvels at Saban’s run, especially considering that in five of the 10 years prior to his arrival, the Tide failed to produce a winning season.
“I mean, from when he took [Alabama] over in 2007 and the state of the program then to what he was able to do, even until the last snap of his career, is unbelievable,” Sarkisian said. “He instilled in everybody every day that they were competing to be a national champion. He set a standard and a bar for excellence in our sport that we’re all striving to get to.”
Beyond the wins, Saban’s ability to lead resonates with Cristobal.
“He’s the epitome of an elite CEO, and one of the greatest things you learn from him is that he has a relentless attack on human nature because his belief in upholding the standards of an organization is as prioritized as it can be,” Cristobal said. “He made it very clear to us that once you don’t hold people to that elite standard, an entire organization could fall to pieces. He made sure he kept us on edge, and he challenged us all the time.”
Saban never deviated from his core beliefs, but he was continuously self-scouting, tinkering and trying to gain an edge.
“I appreciated the level of detail, the competitive spirit, the constant search for improvement and the ability to be flexible and to always be evaluating things and trying to get better and staying ahead of the curve and thinking outside the box,” Napier said. “You don’t do what he’s done unless you’re just a little bit different.”
Dantonio, elected to the College Football Hall of Fame in January, coached defensive backs under Saban at Michigan State.
“He always talked about two things: consistency and performance,” Dantonio said. “He’s been consistent throughout, and he’s built something that lasts. That’s his legacy, and I think that’s what everybody wants to do. I can still hear Nick saying something that stayed with me throughout my coaching career: ‘If you’re not coaching it, you’re letting it happen.’ There’s nothing he didn’t coach.”
Saban produced 43 first-round NFL draft picks during his 17 seasons at Alabama, with more ahead in the upcoming draft.
“It’s easy to say they just had better players. They did. Really good players,” Sarkisian said. “It’s easy to say, man, he’s the greatest defensive mind. Yeah, he’s a great defensive mind. But his ability to adapt schematically, his ability to continue to bring in new coaches year after year on both sides of the ball, his ability to motivate the different teams, the different personalities and different quarterbacks that led to all those championships is what’s fascinating.”
At the end of the day, though, Saban never lost sight of the main ingredient in winning those championships.
“He always sort of laughs and smiles and says, ‘Hey, I can’t coach bad players, either,'” Dantonio said.
Locksley, who had been a head coach or coordinator for 15 years before he joined Saban in 2016 as an offensive analyst, said his three years at Alabama were “the equivalent of Muslims going to Mecca or Catholics going to the Vatican. … For me, it was like when a college professor takes a sabbatical. That’s how much I learned.”
He has been resolute in building his Maryland program with the same blueprint Saban used.
“I tell people all the time that I’ve got grandma’s famous chocolate chip cookie recipe from my time with him,” he said. “If the process tells you to put two cups of chocolate chips in there, why the hell are you going to put three? If it says three eggs, why would you put two? Everything fits and has a perfect place for how it fits.”
Even Kiffin, who is never at a loss for words, struggles to put Saban’s career in proper perspective.
“I always look at coaching, and a lot of times, somebody has a run when they hit it right with an elite quarterback who’s a top-10 pick and then they have drop-offs,” Kiffin said. “But there’s no one who’s done it like Coach has for the last 17 years and then LSU before that. He’s withstood all these changes over the years, coaching changes and the game changing, and just kept winning.
“I mean, nobody does that. It just doesn’t happen, and I’m not sure it ever will again.”
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Bill Connelly
The penultimate week of the college football regular season gave us plenty of entertainment. We got an incredible comeback in Salt Lake City, we got some resounding blowouts, we got a late Heisman push from Diego Pavia and we got the best ending of the season at the Division II level.
We didn’t really get much change, however. No team in the top 14 of the College Football Playoff rankings lost, and of the 16 ranked teams that won, 15 won by double digits and 10 won by at least 20. The ACC gave us more chaos thanks to Georgia Tech’s no-show against Pitt, but it was a rather chaos-free weekend overall.
Luckily, Rivalry Week is on the way, and it usually delivers. We can still squeeze a little bit of chaos out of the 2025 season, so let’s review Week 13 by looking ahead to Week 14. What do we have in store for college football’s best weekend?
For each category below, games are listed in chronological order. All times Eastern.
At-large playoff bids
One thing about all the top teams winning this weekend is: The playoff picture remains extremely unsettled. As a general heuristic, I tend to think of any two-loss SEC or Big Ten team or any one-loss Big 12 or ACC team as safely in the field. But with two weeks remaining, we have more of those teams than we have playoff slots: There are six SEC teams and four Big Ten teams with two or fewer losses, plus two Big 12 teams with one loss. Someone deserving is currently on the outside looking in.
Rivalry Week could alter that picture, of course, though with each of the current top 13 in the CFP rankings favored — 10 by double-digits — that’s not a guarantee.
Friday
No. 6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 13.9 (82% win probability)
No. 12 Utah at Kansas (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 (83%)
No. 4 Georgia at No. 16 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 (79%)
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (Friday, 7:30 p.m., NBC) — SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 (98%)
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 (63%)
Six potential at-large teams play Friday, though Indiana, A&M and Georgia are virtually assured of playoff bids at this point. We’ve seen some pundits attempting to will a “The committee might leave Ole Miss out if Lane Kiffin is leaving!” narrative into existence. While I think this is preposterous on its face — Kiffin isn’t the one making the plays for a 10-1 team, and if the committee indeed chose to downgrade the Rebels because of that, we need to tear down the entire committee structure and go back to a formula* — I don’t think the Rebels want to find out what happens if they lose and most of the teams directly below them win.
(* We should go back to a formula anyway, but that’s neither here nor there.)
Utah just barely kept hope alive Saturday. With Joe Jackson and the Kansas State run game playing at an unstoppable level, the Utes gave up points on five straight first-half possessions to fall behind 31-21 at halftime. They responded with a 14-0 burst, but K-State responded with a 16-0 run to seize total control. Jackson’s 24-yard score seemed to put the game almost out of reach, but Tao Johnson returned a 2-point pass 100 yards to make it 47-37.
We were only getting started. Devon Dampier found Larry Simmons for a 20-yard score with 2:47 left, and after a K-State three-and-out (the Wildcats’ first since the first drive of the game), Dampier raced 59 yards on fourth-and-1 to set up his own go-ahead touchdown with 56 seconds remaining. Lander Barton sealed the comeback with an interception.
Saturday
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan (noon, Fox) — SP+ projection: OSU by 14.6 (82%)
No. 13 Miami at Pitt (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 (65%)
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 (98%)
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 (88%)
No. 7 Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: Oregon by 6.7 (66%)
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 (77%)
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UT by 0.7 (52%)
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC) – SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 (65%)
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 (98%)
In a different year, Texas and Michigan could both be in “Pull a Rivalry Week upset, and you’re in” situations. Thanks to Georgia Tech and USC losing, the Longhorns and Wolverines could rank 15th and 16th, respectively, when the new CFP rankings come out Tuesday. That would put them in range, but if Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and if BYU and Notre Dame win blowouts as expected, there just might not be space in the inn.
There are two different ways to root for playoff chaos, I guess. On one hand, you could root for lots of upsets and general nonsense, which is where I tend to lean. That means Go Mississippi State! Go Georgia Tech! Go Michigan! Go Pitt! Et cetera. But upsets might actually clarify the picture a bit in the end, so the other chaos route involves rooting for whatever gives the committee the biggest possible headache. That means Michigan and Texas both pulling upsets, Vanderbilt toppling Tennessee and maybe Ole Miss falling, but chalk winning out otherwise.
Group of 5 playoff bid
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 (93% win probability)
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 (91%)
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 (98%)
Barring extreme chaos — which might open the door for the Mountain West champ — we’re pretty much locked into a two-team battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot: James Madison vs. the American Conference champ. We’re exceedingly likely to get a Tulane-North Texas battle for the American title in two weeks, and while it’s hard to say how the rankings might play out (since the committee has only deigned to rank Tulane at the moment, and barely at that), it appears these three teams have a greater than 95% chance among them to make the playoff.
While North Texas put up absurd numbers Saturday against Rice, and Tulane pulled away late against Temple, JMU played with fire against a feisty Washington State team. The Cougars nearly upset two potential playoff teams in recent weeks (Ole Miss, Virginia), and they led JMU until Wayne Knight’s 58-yard burst up the middle with 6:24 left gave the Dukes a 24-20 win. One would think the committee would rank JMU this week, but I’d have ranked them a month ago, so who knows?
Conference title races
SEC
Four teams still have a shot at the SEC title, and their games are all listed in the CFP section above.
• Texas A&M is in the SEC championship game with a win over Texas, but if the Aggies lose they’re probably out unless both Bama and Ole Miss lose.
• Alabama is most likely in with a win over Auburn since the Tide boast a win over Georgia and, in a multiway tie that depends on the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker, they should have the advantage.
• Georgia is in the clubhouse at 7-1 in SEC play and would win tiebreakers against Ole Miss (because of a head-to-head win) and, if Texas A&M loses, the Aggies (because of the Dawgs’ record against common opponents). But if A&M and Bama both win as favorites (there’s a 41% chance of that, per SP+), the Dawgs are out. I doubt they would mind much.
• Ole Miss probably needs a win plus Bama and A&M losses. (I say “probably” because we still don’t know for sure how the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker will play out. Giant superconferences can get really messy.)
Big Ten
We probably know what we’re getting in the Big Ten, but it would take only one upset to throw things for a loop. Indiana is unbeaten and needs only to beat Purdue to clinch its first trip to Indianapolis (for a football game, anyway), and since there’s a 98% chance of that happening, that tamps down hopes for major chaos. But if Michigan upsets Ohio State, that likely puts Oregon in if the Ducks win at Washington. If we get double upsets in Ann Arbor and Seattle, however, that puts Michigan in.
There’s an 80% chance of both Indiana and Ohio State winning, per SP+, but Oregon and Michigan both kept hopes alive by taking care of business Saturday. Michigan took a 14-point lead over Maryland early in the second quarter, traded blows with the Terrapins for a little while, then laid the hammer down in a 45-20 win.
Oregon, meanwhile, had to work 60 full minutes against No. 15 USC but got the job done in mature fashion. USC cut the Ducks’ lead to 35-27 early in the fourth quarter, but Oregon responded with an 11-play, nearly six-minute drive to go back up 15. It was a dreadfully penalty-heavy affair — the teams combined for 231 rushing yards and 233 penalty yards — but Oregon was never in serious danger. That all but locked up the Ducks’ playoff bid, but it probably won’t earn them a shot at repeating as Big Ten champions.
Big 12
Arizona at No. 25 Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m., Fox) — SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 (60% win probability)
As with the Big Ten, we probably know what we’re getting in the Big 12 championship game: a BYU-Texas Tech rematch. There’s an 86% chance both BYU and Tech win this coming weekend, per SP+, and if they do, they’re in. If they don’t, however, the Territorial Cup and the Utah-Kansas game above could both play a role.
If Arizona State beats Arizona — an upset, according to SP+ — the Sun Devils could get back to Jerry World to defend its title if Kansas upsets Utah and either BYU or Texas Tech also loses. Utah, meanwhile, needs a win, wins by BYU and Arizona State and a massive upset loss for Texas Tech. Neither of these scenarios are likely, and we’re basically looking at a 98.8% chance that either Tech or BYU wins the conference crown. But true chaos lovers know that if there’s a 98.8% chance that something happens, there’s a 1.2% chance that it doesn’t!
ACC
In addition to Miami-Pitt above, three more games will play huge roles in sorting out an incredible ACC mess.
Wake Forest at Duke (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ACCN) – SP+ projection: Duke by 0.4 (51% win probability)
Virginia Tech at No. 19 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 (92%)
SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2) – SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 (85%)
Pitt remains as antisocial as its coach. A week after falling out of the CFP rankings because of a blowout loss to Notre Dame, Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers went down to Atlanta and rolled over Georgia Tech, all but eliminating the Yellow Jackets from ACC contention. Pitt led 28-0 just 19 minutes in, and while Tech was able to close to within 35-28 with 4:51 left after an offensive burst and a cataclysmic fake punt by Pitt, the Panthers clinched the win with a 56-yard touchdown run by freshman Ja’Kyrian Turner. (Subbing in for the injured Desmond Reid, Turner rushed for 201 yards against Tech’s dreadful defense.)
Now we have three 6-1 teams (Virginia, Pitt and SMU), two of which came into this weekend unranked, followed by 6-2 Georgia Tech and 5-2 Miami and Duke. If all three of the 6-1 teams win, Virginia and SMU will play for the ACC title because Pitt has the inferior record against common opponents. And obviously if only two of the three 6-1 teams win, we know who’s in.
But since when has the orderly thing happened in this conference? Just know that tiebreakers like “conference opponent win percentage” (which could be very close) and “higher SportSource Analytics team rating” could come into play. And with games in all three primary windows Saturday, this could take all day (and into early Sunday) to straighten out. Hell yeah, let’s get weird.
American
Navy at Memphis (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 (76% win probability)
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: ECU by 11.1 (76%)
Rice at South Florida (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USF by 27.3 (96%)
Per SP+, there’s a 91% chance that both Tulane and North Texas will win Saturday, and if they do, they’ll play in the American title game. But at 6-1 in the conference, Navy could pounce if either suffers a shocking upset. And if Navy also falls as an underdog at Memphis, the door might open back up for USF or East Carolina. And a blend of computer rankings (including SP+) could end up involved. But again, we have a better than 90% chance of order.
Sun Belt
Troy at Southern Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 (56% win probability)
This one is straightforward: James Madison has clinched the Sun Belt East, while the winner of Troy-Southern Miss will represent the West as a hefty underdog against the Dukes.
Mountain West
San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 (62% win probability)
Boise State at Utah State (Friday, 4 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: BSU by 3.5 (59%)
UNLV at Nevada (Saturday, 9 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 (84%)
This one is straightforward at first: We have one team at 6-1 (San Diego State) and three at 5-2 (Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico). If SDSU beats New Mexico, then Boise State holds the tiebreaker over UNLV and would be in with a win; if the Broncos lose, UNLV is in with a win.
However, a New Mexico upset and a large tie at 6-2 could send us screaming toward the “blended computer rankings (not including SP+ this time)” tiebreaker. Algorithms could get their moment in the sun in the G5.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 (59% win probability)
Kennesaw State at Liberty (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: KSU by 4.0 (60%)
Convenient: We have a three-way tie at 6-1 with Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky, and WKU and JSU play each other, so the winner is guaranteed a spot. If KSU wins, the Owls will play the WKU-JSU winner for the title. Easy peasy. But if the Owls lose, it could come down to either Jacksonville State’s head-to-head win over Kennesaw (if the Gamecocks lose to WKU) or, say it with me now, “blended computer rankings” if WKU loses to JSU.
MAC
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: WMU by 8.6% (70% win probability)
Ohio at Buffalo (Friday, noon, ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Ohio by 2.9 (57%)
Toledo at Central Michigan (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 (74%)
Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, noon, CBSSN) — SP+ projection: Miami by 20.3 (90%)
By Wednesday morning, we’ll know if this race is messy or super messy. At 6-1, WMU is in with a Tuesday win over EMU. But there’s a four-way tie between CMU, Miami, Ohio and Toledo at 5-2. Most big-group tiebreakers seem to favor WMU and Miami, though Toledo’s head-to-head win over Miami could also come in handy.
Bowl eligibility
There are 21 5-6 teams in action this weekend, plus 5-5 Army, needing wins to ensure bowl eligibility. (Technically one of the 5-6 teams, Delaware, is ineligible for a bowl, but the Blue Hens would get one with a win if there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill all the slots.)
Based on SP+ projections, about 10 of them will win. Quite a few are listed above — Auburn (vs. Bama), Buffalo (vs. Ohio), Kansas (vs. Utah), Mississippi State (at Ole Miss), Rice (at USF), Temple (at North Texas), UCF (at BYU) — but we have loads more to follow, including a trio of “the winner bowls” matchups between 5-6 teams Saturday afternoon.
The winner bowls
5-6 Georgia Southern at 5-6 Marshall (Saturday, 1:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Marshall by 10.2 (74% win probability)
5-6 Arkansas State at 5-6 Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: App State by 1.8 (54%)
5-6 Penn State at 5-6 Rutgers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN) — SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 (82%)
Penn State has played very well under interim head coach Terry Smith, enough to build at least a little bit of “Maybe just hire Terry?” buzz. The Nittany Lions manhandled Nebraska 37-10 on Saturday — with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combining for 204 rushing yards and four touchdowns, just like the good old days — to get within one game of .500. It would be a shock if they suffered a letdown against Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights do still have a decent offense. (Defense, not so much.)
Other 5-6 teams
5-6 Kentucky at Louisville (Saturday, noon, ACCN) — SP+ projection: Louisville by 7.1 (67% win probability)
Houston at 5-6 Baylor (Saturday, noon, TNT) — SP+ projection: UH by 3.4 (42%)
Colorado at 5-6 Kansas State (Saturday, noon, FS1) — SP+ projection: K-State by 15.4 (83%)
UTEP at 5-6 Delaware (Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Delaware by 5.0 (62%)
Louisiana-Monroe at 5-6 Louisiana (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UL by 15.6 (84%)
South Alabama at 5-6 Texas State (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: TXST by 11.4 (76%)
5-5 Army at UTSA (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UTSA by 7.3 (68%)
5-6 Florida State at Florida (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: FSU by 7.1 (67%)
Oregon State at 5-6 Washington State (Saturday, 6:30 p.m., The CW) — SP+ projection: Wazzu by 16.6 (85%)
I usually find myself rooting for the 5-6 team in these types of games, but I’ll be rooting particularly hard for Kansas State (because the Wildcats really have rallied to play mostly decent ball down the stretch), Texas State (because the Bobcats are impossibly entertaining and dropped a series of midseason heartbreakers), and Washington State (because it played incredibly well in three trips east but fell to Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison by one-score margins).
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
North Texas: up 4.0 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 24th to 18th)
UNLV: up 3.6 points (from 64th to 54th)
Wake Forest: up 3.5 points (from 63rd to 52nd)
South Florida: up 3.2 points (from 38th to 28th)
Vanderbilt: up 3.2 points (from 18th to 13th)
With maybe the most video-game-like offensive display I’ve seen, North Texas placed two players on the Heisman of the Week list below and rose into the SP+ top 20. (That’s higher than Boise State ranked ahead of last year’s CFP, by the way. James Madison is in the top 30, too.) Vandy’s ridiculously dominant performance against Kentucky earned the Commodores a late rise as well.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Florida: down 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 50th to 69th)
Syracuse: down 4.5 points (from 101st to 118th)
UCLA: down 3.9 points (from 85th to 101st)
Colorado: down 3.3 points (from 78th to 96th)
Illinois: down 3.2 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
I guess the surprise here is that someone fell further than Syracuse. At 69th overall, this is officially Florida’s worst team since 1979, when the Gators went 0-10-1 in Charley Pell’s first season. If you’re going to struggle, I guess you might as well struggle at a historic level.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). And with just two weeks remaining in the race, we have ourselves a new leader.
0:57
Highlight: Diego Pavia sets Vandy record with 484 passing yards in win over UK
Pavia accounts for 532 total yards and six total touchdowns as the No. 14 Commodores blow out the Wildcats in Nashville, 45-17.
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (33-for-39 passing for 484 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Kentucky).
2. Arch Manning, Texas (18-for-30 passing for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown against Arkansas).
3. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (19-for-23 passing for 469 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Rice).
4. Joe Jackson, Kansas State (24 carries for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 19 receiving yards against Utah).
5. Raleek Brown, Arizona State (22 carries for 255 yards and a touchdown, plus 33 receiving yards and a TD against Colorado).
6. LJ Martin, BYU (32 carries for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 44 receiving yards against Cincinnati).
7. Wyatt Young, North Texas (8 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns against Rice).
8. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (16-for-20 passing for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 82 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Coastal Carolina).
9. Ja’Kyrian Turner, Pitt (21 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
10. Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (14 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble against Kent State).
What a week for enormous performances. Any of the top seven guys here might have finished first in some other week. When I was watching Wyatt Young break what felt like 17 tackles on his way to an 84-yard touchdown against Rice, I thought he might take the top spot. He ended up seventh.
In the end, I didn’t have any doubt about the No. 1 spot. The biggest story for Vanderbilt against Kentucky was that its defense showed up for the first time in a few weeks — a very welcome sight with Tennessee on deck in a potential win-and-in game — but Diego Pavia was absolutely ridiculous as well. In his past three games, he has thrown for 1,226 yards (408.7 per game!) with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Three straight iffy performances in October threw him off the Heisman path a bit, but as you’ll see below, his November work has put him a nose in front in the points race, at least.
Honorable mention:
• Carson Beck, Miami (27-for-32 passing for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns against Virginia Tech).
• Devon Dampier, Utah (18-for-33 passing for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 110 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Kansas State).
• Joe Fagnano, UConn (33-for-46 passing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-37 passing for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Louisville).
• Amari Odom, Kennesaw State (24-for-34 passing for 387 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 52 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Missouri State).
• Darryl Peterson, Wisconsin (6 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 pass breakups against Illinois).
• Dominic Richardson, Tulsa (28 carries for 203 yards and a touchdown, plus 22 receiving yards against Army).
• Jalen Stroman, Notre Dame (eight tackles, two TFLs and a pick-six against Syracuse).
Joe Fagnano threw for 446 yards, and I couldn’t even squeeze him in the top 10!
Through 13 weeks, here are your points leaders. (Points over the past four weeks is the tiebreaker):
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (34 points)
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (29 points, 13 in the past four weeks)
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points, zero in the past four weeks)
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27 points)
5. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (26 points)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (25 points, six in the past four weeks)
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25 points, zero in the past four weeks)
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21 points)
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (18 points)
10. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (16 points, eight in the past four weeks)
We still have seven players within 10 points of the lead, so this is far from settled.
The current ESPN BET betting odds still have Mendoza (-130) and Sayin (+425) leading the way, with Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love (+500) and Pavia (+600) as the only other realistic contenders. (A&M’s Marcel Reed is at +1400, and somehow Georgia’s Gunner Stockton is only at +3500.) We still have time for a shift in conventional wisdom – I’d personally view this as a three-way tie between Mendoza, Sayin and Pavia at this point – but it still looks like we may be gearing up for a winner-take-all Mendoza-Sayin matchup in the Big Ten championship game.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
It’s fair to admit that most of the biggest games of the week weren’t incredibly gripping, but if you did a little digging around, you were rewarded.
1. Division II: Benedict 25, Wingate 24. This was the only possible choice for the No. 1 spot. Benedict trailed 24-7 in the first round of the D-II playoffs, and Wingate was lining up for a 21-yard chip-shot field goal to go up 20. But Isaiah Isidore blocked the field goal and returned it 95 yards for a touchdown. Then Tre Simmons scored with 3:36 left to make it 24-19. The Bulldogs got the ball back at their 14 with 19 seconds left and quickly threw three incompletions. It was time to try one of those lateral-fest plays that never work.
It worked.
1:12
Division II playoff game ends on unbelievable cross-field lateral TD play
Benedict stuns Wingate with a cross-field lateral to score a long touchdown to advance in the Division II playoffs.
It apparently worked so well that the cameraperson lost his or her mind halfway through. Malik Mullins’ touchdown, after a perfectly timed lateral and an absurd burst of speed, gave Benedict the win and a spot in the second round. Best ending of the season.
2. No. 12 Utah 51, Kansas State 47. I don’t know what happened to Utah’s defense in this one, and I don’t know whether the CFP committee will punish the Utes for falling short of expectations, but this was a magnificent game all the same.
3. FCS: Bethune-Cookman 38, Florida A&M 34. The HBCU universe always provides drama, but it outdid itself this week, not only with the Benedict game but also with this Florida Classic thriller, which saw four lead changes — and four long touchdowns — in the final eight minutes. Jamal Hailey put FAMU up 27-24 with a 72-yard touchdown run, but Bethune-Cookman went ahead 44 seconds later on a 67-yard pass from journeyman Timmy McClain to Javon Ross. FAMU went back ahead with 2:19 remaining, but on fourth-and-8 with 27 seconds left, McClain found Josh Evans somehow wide open for a 41-yard score.
The moment the Classic was ours 🫨🫨🫨🫨 pic.twitter.com/FNmtrPjbnf
— 🏈 Bethune-Cookman Football (@BCUGridiron) November 23, 2025
4. UConn 48, Florida Atlantic 45. UConn hasn’t had the greatest attention span in the world against lesser teams, but that’s been great for our entertainment. The Huskies led 24-3 after the first quarter, but FAU took the lead on a 90-yard Dominique Henry catch-and-run midway through the third. UConn responded with 14 quick points, but FAU took another lead with 2:11 remaining. UConn drove 75 yards in 1:45 to make it 48-45, but FAU drove 56 yards in just 22 seconds … but badly missed a 36-yard field goal at the buzzer.
Wheeeee!
5. Duke 32, North Carolina 25. UCLA gave us one of the worst fake field goals you’ll ever see late Saturday night (I’m not even going to share a link; you’ll have to look it up to find that monstrosity), but that only provided balance to the universe because a few hours earlier Duke pulled off one of the smoothest fakes you’ll ever see. Run, kicker, run!
DUKE PULLS OFF THE FAKE FIELD GOAL 🤯 @DukeFOOTBALL pic.twitter.com/syr9FoOdue
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 22, 2025
Todd Pelino‘s sprint set up the winning TD.
6. Tulsa 26, Army 25. With its methodical, relentless option game, you would figure Army would be one of the worst teams against which to attempt a late comeback. But trailing 25-14 with less than five minutes remaining, Tulsa scored on a 48-yard Seth Morgan field goal, then picked off a Cale Hellums pass (!) and scored with 1:53 left. The Golden Hurricane missed a game-tying 2-point conversion and couldn’t recover the onside kick, but no worries! They stuffed Army on fourth down, and Dominic Richardson rushed five times for 37 yards to set Morgan up for a game-winning 27-yarder.
7. Iowa 20, Michigan State 17. This one was remarkably similar to Tulsa-Army, only it was the favorite making the comeback. After a dire three quarters, Iowa found itself down 17-7 heading into the fourth, but a Drew Stevens field goal and a Jacob Gill touchdown tied the game with 1:29 left. Overtime? Nope! Michigan State went four-and-out, and Mark Gronowski completed three passes for 54 yards to set Stevens up with a 44-yarder. Being that he’s awesome, Stevens made it with ease.
DREW STEVENS WINS IT FOR IOWA ON SENIOR DAY ‼️@HawkeyeFootball pic.twitter.com/xl3IO3Wl9g
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 23, 2025
It was his fourth career winner.
8. FCS: Tarleton State 45, Austin Peay 44 (OT). On one hand, Tarleton State has slipped a bit in November and won’t enter the FCS playoffs with great title odds. On the other hand, all we care is that we’re entertained! And this game was bonkers. APSU went up early and led 28-14 at halftime, and TSU had to tie the game on three separate occasions — including on a 41-yard Corbin Poston field goal with four seconds left — to force overtime. The Texans scored in two plays in overtime, but APSU responded with a 25-yard Chris Parson run on its first play. The Governors, 18.5-point underdogs, naturally went for two points and the win … and Parson airmailed an open receiver. Oof.
1:18
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
9. FCS: South Dakota State 34, North Dakota 31 (OT). You know who didn’t airmail an open receiver? SDSU’s Jack Henry. The Jackrabbits trailed 20-7 with 17 minutes left but made a 21-0 charge before UND tied the game at 28-28 with 1:52 left. The Fighting Hawks settled for a field goal to open overtime, and SDSU was looking at a long-range FG to tie, but Henry scrambled to his right and found a leaping Grahm Goering for the game-winner.
0:24
Jack Henry throws 23-yard touchdown pass vs. North Dakota
Jack Henry connects for 23-yard TD pass
Not only was this a clutch play, but it was a season-saver — the Jackrabbits edged their way into the FCS playoffs because of it.
10. Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30 (Thursday). We got a wacky win probability chart for this one. ASU led at halftime thanks to both a Cody Sigler fumble return touchdown and a Chauncy Cobb kick return score. UL eased ahead in the second half, but ASU drove 89 yards in just over two late minutes. Unfortunately, the Red Wolves needed a 90th yard. Jaylen Raynor was stopped at the 1 as time expired.
11. Northwestern 38, Minnesota 35.
12. New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
13. Louisiana Tech 34, Liberty 28 (OT).
14. ForeverLawn Bowl: Wabash 32, Ohio Northern 31.
15. FCS: Albany 31, Monmouth 24.
16. TCU 17, No. 23 Houston 14.
17. Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34.
18. FCS: Tennessee Tech 20, UT Martin 17.
19. Division III: Wilkes 37, Shenandoah 35.
20. FCS: Montana State 31, Montana 28.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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