Adam Boulton: With Michelle O’Neill becoming Northern Ireland’s first nationalist leader, is a united Ireland within ‘touching distance’?
The confirmation of Michelle O’Neill as first minister of Northern Ireland is historic.
She is the first representative of the nationalist community, committed to uniting Ireland, to become the leader of the Stormont Assembly, an integral part of the devolved United Kingdom.
Ms O’Neill is also complemented in the south by another woman, Mary Lou McDonald, the president of their party, Sinn Fein, and the leader of the opposition in the Irish parliament.
As polls stand Ms McDonald is on course to be the first woman prime minister of Ireland.
The two leaders often appear together and were pictured on newspaper front pages after the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lifted its block on re-establishing the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland.
Asked about a united Ireland Ms McDonald sounded confident. “In historic terms, it is within touching distance,” she told reporters.
Is she right though? Not according to the Westminster government. The 76-page document enshrining the deal with the DUP which MPs endorsed is called Safeguarding the Union and is shot through with language affirming Northern Ireland’s constitutional status as part of the UK.
Ms O’Neill and Ms McDonald clearly have electoral appeal.
Both women grew up in the Catholic community in republican families. Ms O’Neill’s father, Brendan Doris, was interned as a provisional IRA prisoner and served as a Sinn Fein councillor.
Middle-class Ms McDonald’s credentials are more remote: her great uncle, James O’Connor, an IRA member, was executed by the British during the Irish Civil War. That is ancient history, Ms O’Neill and Ms McDonald would have us believe.
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Northern Ireland: What happens now?
Dispelling the shadow of the gunman
The rise in the popularity of Sinn Fein is attributed in part to attracting women, especially from Catholic backgrounds, to vote for them, precisely because they dispel the shadow of the gunman. The two mothers of two seem to many to be the embodiment of the republican movement’s switch to seek power via the ballot box rather than the bullet.
Unlike the previous generation of Sinn Fein leadership, typified by Martin McGuinness and Gerry Adams, neither were active during the so-called “armed struggle” of the Troubles. Ms O’Neill became a member of Sinn Fein at the age of 21 after the Belfast Agreement was signed on Good Friday 1998.
Around the same time, Ms McDonald, who is eight years older, briefly joined Fianna Fail, one of Ireland’s two mainstream parties. By 2002, she was running unsuccessfully for office as a Sinn Fein candidate. She served a term for Sinn Fein in the European Parliament from 2004 and has been a TD, a member of Dail Eireann, Ireland’s parliament, since 2011.
Pic: PA
McDonald favourite to be next taoiseach
Ireland is due to hold a general election in the next 12 months. Sinn Fein tops the opinion polls with 27%, ahead of the current coalition partners Fine Gael on 20% and Fianna Fail on 17%.
That makes Ms McDonald favourite to be the next taoiseach. If so, Ireland would be united at least in having female Irish republican political leaders in both the north and south.
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Of course, Ms McDonald may not be elected and Ms O’Neill may not actually be first minister for long.
Stormont could well be suspended again. Ms O’Neill has already twice lost the post of deputy first minister when her DUP counterparts as first minister, Arlene Foster and Paul Givan, each resigned.
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Sunak ‘will not evade me forever’
Communities have refused to share power
The Northern Ireland Assembly has not sat for nearly half its existence since 1998 because one of the two communities, unionist or nationalist, refused to share power in the executive with the other.
Under the Belfast Agreement, the first and deputy first ministers have equal authority. The symbolically important top job goes to the party which has the most members of the legislative assembly elected.
Sinn Fein had 27 MLAs at the last election. Ms O’Neill qualifies to be first minister because the unionist vote is split between parties, with the DUP on 25 MLAs and Ulster Unionists with nine.
The Troubles stuttered to an end in the 1990s because neither side could win the terrorist conflict, which claimed over 3,000 lives in some 30 years.
Pic: PA
Prime ministers have tried to appease Northern Irish public
Rapprochement between the Irish and British governments was facilitated by the two countries being members of the European Union, and by the consequent modernisation of Ireland.
The UK’s referendum vote in 2016 to leave the EU was especially problematic for Northern Ireland. A clear majority in the six counties voted to remain to no avail, while the then dominant DUP were fierce Brexiteers.
Since then, successive British prime ministers have tried to appease the Northern Irish public – and intermittently to honour the UK’s commitments under the Belfast agreement – by keeping Northern Ireland, uniquely, in both the EU and UK trading blocks.
Growing support for united Ireland
Support for a united Ireland grew, with 57% of the rising generation of 18-24-year-olds in Northern Ireland favouring it in opinion polls. By no means all Catholics want a united Ireland but in demographic terms they are overtaking Protestants.
The DUP considered threats to the union lay in measures which kept trade borders open, “north-south”, with the EU, but imposed them, “east-west”, with mainland Britain. That, and a largely unspoken objection to the idea of a Roman Catholic republican woman as the political leader of Northern Ireland, lay behind their refusal, now lifted, to take part in the devolved government.
For the time being re-establishing Stormont could be a smart move by the Unionists.
Pic: PA
Responsibilities of office have dampened separatist urge
A united Ireland remains the automatic Article One in any Sinn Fein manifesto. But interview Ms McDonald on the campaign trail and she is much more interested in housing and inequality.
Ms O’Neill has been calling for the return of Stormont so she can govern and sort out Northern Ireland’s problems. The Westminster government has made funding for public services conditional on a functioning assembly.
From Scotland to Catalonia, the responsibilities of office have dampened the separatist urge. Public enthusiasm for big constitutional changes fades when voters just want whoever is in power to deliver.
The Good Friday Agreement says a united Ireland will come about if there is a public desire on both sides of the border for a referendum and if both the people of Northern Ireland and Ireland both vote, separately, for it.
The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, 45, says we are “on a path” to a united Ireland “in my lifetime”. Sir Keir Starmer, the British leader of the opposition, argues “it’s not even on the horizon”.
Ms McDonald is a politician to her fingertips and speaks as one. “Touching distance” sounds very close until you put it in the “historic context” of half a millennium’s disputation.
Michelle O’Neill is appearing on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on Sky News from 8.30am this morning
World
Joe Biden allows Ukraine to begin firing US rockets deep into Russia – as politician warns it ‘risks World War Three’
Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine to begin firing US-supplied rockets deep into Russia – as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to push for “further support” for Kyiv at the G20 summit.
Mr Biden’s policy shift means Kyiv will now be able to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for long-range attacks, two American officials have told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.
Follow latest: Ukraine war live updates
Ukraine plans to conduct its first such attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns.
The US has eased restrictions on the use of ATACMS, which have a range of up to 190 miles, after Russia began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces in the conflict.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said such a move would deepen America’s involvement in the war.
“It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to… continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict,” Peskov said.
Joe Biden meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in September last year. Pic: AP
The development was also condemned by Biden officials as a possible expansion of the war.
A Russian politician and the son of President-elect Donald Trump have both likened the move to risking a third world war.
Maria Butina told the Reuters news agency: “These guys, Biden’s administration, is trying to escalate the situation to the maximum while they still have power and are still in office.
“I have a great hope that Trump will overcome this decision if this has been made because they are seriously risking the start of World War Three which is not in anybody’s interest.”
Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr wrote on X: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives… Imbeciles!”
The outgoing Biden administration’s move comes as there are concerns about the level of support the Trump White House may be willing to give Ukraine.
Mr Trump has previously vowed to limit US support for Ukraine and end its war with Russia.
In an evening address after Kyiv was given permission to fire deep into Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Today, there’s a lot of talk in the media about us receiving permission for respective actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves. They certainly will.”
Back in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin said if the US were to lift the ban on long-range missile use it would be seen as NATO’s “direct participation” in the war.
He added: “This, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.”
The US military tests an early version of an Army Tactical Missile System in 2021. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, the UK prime minister has said he has “no plans” to speak with the Russian president as world leaders gather for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
Mr Putin will not be attending the two-day summit which starts on Monday after saying in October that his presence would “disrupt the normal work of this forum”. Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will be attending instead.
It will take place days after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Mr Putin on what was the Russian leader’s first publicly announced conversation with the sitting head of a major Western power in nearly two years.
Asked if he had any plans to make a similar call, Sir Keir said: “It’s a matter for Chancellor Scholz who he speaks to. I have no plans to speak to Putin.”
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Firefighters work at the site of a residential area hit by a Russian missile strike in the Lviv region of Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
Speaking to reporters while on his way to the summit, he added: “We are coming up to the 1,000th day of this conflict on Tuesday.
“That’s 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of huge impact and sacrifice in relation to the Ukrainian people and recently we’ve seen the addition of North Korean troops working with Russians which does have serious implications.
“I think on one hand it shows the desperation of Russia, but it’s got serious implications for European security […] and for Indo-Pacific security and that’s why I think we need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that’s top of my agenda for the G20.
“There’s got to be full support as long as it takes and that certainly is top of my agenda, shoring up that further support for Ukraine.”
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One of Russia’s ‘largest air attacks’
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The latest developments come after Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on Sunday, with Mr Zelenskyy claiming Moscow had launched a total of 120 missiles and 90 drones.
Two major strikes, which left a total of 18 people dead, hit a residential building in the northeastern city of Sumy as well as energy infrastructure across Ukraine, prompting emergency power cuts.
Hours later, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russia’s air defence units had destroyed a drone heading towards the city.
World
It’s a stunning shift in US policy – but Biden’s announcement will trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow
Joe Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied, long-range missiles inside Russia will be cheered by Kyiv and will almost certainly prompt the UK to follow suit.
But the stunning shift in US policy – just weeks before Donald Trump takes over as US president – will also trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow at a time of increasing uncertainty about the future course of its war.
President Vladimir Putin has warned the West they would be playing with fire if they allowed Ukrainian forces to launch Western-supplied cruise and ballistic missiles at Russia, saying it could even trigger a global conflict.
British and US officials, though, have repeatedly advised their respective capitals not to be intimidated by Moscow’s sabre rattling.
Ukraine war latest: Biden lifts ban on Russia strikes
Yet there has been hesitancy, particularly in Washington, over the unleashing of US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles beyond the borders of Ukraine.
However, it seems that a move by North Korea to send thousands of its troops to fight with Russia has changed US calculations.
Joe Biden delivered his remarks in Brazil. Pic: Reuters
The New York Times, which was among the US media organisations to break news of the Biden administration’s decision on long-range missiles, reported that the first time the American weapons will be used inside Russia will likely be against Russian and North Korean troops battling a Ukrainian incursion in the Russian region of Kursk.
While a significant step up in support for Ukraine, the ability to use American long-range missiles inside Russia is not a war-winning development.
But it does expand Kyiv’s capacity to hit important military targets deliberately positioned by Russian commanders far back from the frontline. This includes stockpiles of missiles, drones and other ammunition used to strike Ukraine.
Just as important as the military impact, though, is the political signal that the US decision sends to the Kremlin about Washington’s willingness to defy Russian warnings about dire consequences should Mr Biden dare to grant Ukraine the permission it’s so long been seeking.
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‘The missiles will speak for themselves’
The dramatic move by the US comes after months of lobbying by Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A key thing to watch now will be how Mr Putin reacts the first time an American missile kills Russian soldiers on Russian soil.
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Moscow does not want a direct war with the United States and NATO – nuclear-armed forces with far greater combined firepower – but the Kremlin could well ramp up an already heightened campaign of sabotage and other forms of hybrid warfare across Europe.
Another important reaction to track will be how Mr Trump responds to Mr Biden’s move and whether he continues to allow Ukraine this permission once he takes over as the US commander-in-chief.
The president-elect has vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine quickly but he has not said how. Yet he has voiced fierce opposition to the continued gifting of vast quantities of American weapons to the Ukrainian military.
It is a reason perhaps for Ukraine to make use of its new freedoms with US missiles as quickly as possible.
An acclaimed Russian ballet dancer has died aged 39 after reportedly falling off a balcony.
Vladimir Shklyarov, one of the world’s top male ballet stars, died on Saturday night, according to the Mariinsky Theatre, where he was a principal dancer.
The St Petersburg theatre said: “It is with profound sadness that the Mariinsky Theatre announces the untimely passing of principal dancer Vladimir Shklyarov.
“Shklyarov, a beloved artist and audience favourite, died tragically on 16 November.
“His loss is deeply felt by the entire Mariinsky family and the wider ballet world.”
The Mariinsky Theatre told Sky News Shklyarov had a back injury at the time, and was due to have “complicated spinal surgery” on Monday 18 November. He was “taking serious pain medication”.
A spokesperson for the theatre was reported in Russian media at the weekend as saying he had fallen from the fifth floor of a building.
Vladimir Shklyarov performing in London in 2009, with fellow dancer Alina Somova. Pic: Reuters
Dancers have been paying tribute to Shklyarov, who was married to fellow company dancer Maria Shklyarov, with whom he had two children.
Former ballerina Irina Bartnovskaya said Shklyarov had been at home, on pain relief, preparing for foot surgery at the time of his death.
In a post on Telegram, she continued: “He went out onto the balcony to get some air and smoke, lost his balance (a very narrow balcony) and fell down (from the 5th floor).
“Stupid, unbearable accident.”
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Diana Vishneva, a ballerina at the Mariinsky Theatre, was also among those paying tribute.
She said: “This tragedy brings only tears and sadness.”
According to state-run news group RIA Novosti, an investigation has been launched into the death.
The outlet also said that the preliminary cause of death was believed to be an accident.
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