Adam Boulton: With Michelle O’Neill becoming Northern Ireland’s first nationalist leader, is a united Ireland within ‘touching distance’?
The confirmation of Michelle O’Neill as first minister of Northern Ireland is historic.
She is the first representative of the nationalist community, committed to uniting Ireland, to become the leader of the Stormont Assembly, an integral part of the devolved United Kingdom.
Ms O’Neill is also complemented in the south by another woman, Mary Lou McDonald, the president of their party, Sinn Fein, and the leader of the opposition in the Irish parliament.
As polls stand Ms McDonald is on course to be the first woman prime minister of Ireland.
The two leaders often appear together and were pictured on newspaper front pages after the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lifted its block on re-establishing the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland.
Asked about a united Ireland Ms McDonald sounded confident. “In historic terms, it is within touching distance,” she told reporters.
Is she right though? Not according to the Westminster government. The 76-page document enshrining the deal with the DUP which MPs endorsed is called Safeguarding the Union and is shot through with language affirming Northern Ireland’s constitutional status as part of the UK.
Ms O’Neill and Ms McDonald clearly have electoral appeal.
Both women grew up in the Catholic community in republican families. Ms O’Neill’s father, Brendan Doris, was interned as a provisional IRA prisoner and served as a Sinn Fein councillor.
Middle-class Ms McDonald’s credentials are more remote: her great uncle, James O’Connor, an IRA member, was executed by the British during the Irish Civil War. That is ancient history, Ms O’Neill and Ms McDonald would have us believe.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Northern Ireland: What happens now?
Dispelling the shadow of the gunman
The rise in the popularity of Sinn Fein is attributed in part to attracting women, especially from Catholic backgrounds, to vote for them, precisely because they dispel the shadow of the gunman. The two mothers of two seem to many to be the embodiment of the republican movement’s switch to seek power via the ballot box rather than the bullet.
Unlike the previous generation of Sinn Fein leadership, typified by Martin McGuinness and Gerry Adams, neither were active during the so-called “armed struggle” of the Troubles. Ms O’Neill became a member of Sinn Fein at the age of 21 after the Belfast Agreement was signed on Good Friday 1998.
Around the same time, Ms McDonald, who is eight years older, briefly joined Fianna Fail, one of Ireland’s two mainstream parties. By 2002, she was running unsuccessfully for office as a Sinn Fein candidate. She served a term for Sinn Fein in the European Parliament from 2004 and has been a TD, a member of Dail Eireann, Ireland’s parliament, since 2011.
Pic: PA
McDonald favourite to be next taoiseach
Ireland is due to hold a general election in the next 12 months. Sinn Fein tops the opinion polls with 27%, ahead of the current coalition partners Fine Gael on 20% and Fianna Fail on 17%.
That makes Ms McDonald favourite to be the next taoiseach. If so, Ireland would be united at least in having female Irish republican political leaders in both the north and south.
Read more:
O’Neill ‘contests’ claim Irish unity is ‘decades’ away
O’Neill becomes first nationalist first minister
Why NI’s new first minister is hugely symbolic
Of course, Ms McDonald may not be elected and Ms O’Neill may not actually be first minister for long.
Stormont could well be suspended again. Ms O’Neill has already twice lost the post of deputy first minister when her DUP counterparts as first minister, Arlene Foster and Paul Givan, each resigned.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Sunak ‘will not evade me forever’
Communities have refused to share power
The Northern Ireland Assembly has not sat for nearly half its existence since 1998 because one of the two communities, unionist or nationalist, refused to share power in the executive with the other.
Under the Belfast Agreement, the first and deputy first ministers have equal authority. The symbolically important top job goes to the party which has the most members of the legislative assembly elected.
Sinn Fein had 27 MLAs at the last election. Ms O’Neill qualifies to be first minister because the unionist vote is split between parties, with the DUP on 25 MLAs and Ulster Unionists with nine.
The Troubles stuttered to an end in the 1990s because neither side could win the terrorist conflict, which claimed over 3,000 lives in some 30 years.
Pic: PA
Prime ministers have tried to appease Northern Irish public
Rapprochement between the Irish and British governments was facilitated by the two countries being members of the European Union, and by the consequent modernisation of Ireland.
The UK’s referendum vote in 2016 to leave the EU was especially problematic for Northern Ireland. A clear majority in the six counties voted to remain to no avail, while the then dominant DUP were fierce Brexiteers.
Since then, successive British prime ministers have tried to appease the Northern Irish public – and intermittently to honour the UK’s commitments under the Belfast agreement – by keeping Northern Ireland, uniquely, in both the EU and UK trading blocks.
Growing support for united Ireland
Support for a united Ireland grew, with 57% of the rising generation of 18-24-year-olds in Northern Ireland favouring it in opinion polls. By no means all Catholics want a united Ireland but in demographic terms they are overtaking Protestants.
The DUP considered threats to the union lay in measures which kept trade borders open, “north-south”, with the EU, but imposed them, “east-west”, with mainland Britain. That, and a largely unspoken objection to the idea of a Roman Catholic republican woman as the political leader of Northern Ireland, lay behind their refusal, now lifted, to take part in the devolved government.
For the time being re-establishing Stormont could be a smart move by the Unionists.
Pic: PA
Responsibilities of office have dampened separatist urge
A united Ireland remains the automatic Article One in any Sinn Fein manifesto. But interview Ms McDonald on the campaign trail and she is much more interested in housing and inequality.
Ms O’Neill has been calling for the return of Stormont so she can govern and sort out Northern Ireland’s problems. The Westminster government has made funding for public services conditional on a functioning assembly.
From Scotland to Catalonia, the responsibilities of office have dampened the separatist urge. Public enthusiasm for big constitutional changes fades when voters just want whoever is in power to deliver.
The Good Friday Agreement says a united Ireland will come about if there is a public desire on both sides of the border for a referendum and if both the people of Northern Ireland and Ireland both vote, separately, for it.
The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, 45, says we are “on a path” to a united Ireland “in my lifetime”. Sir Keir Starmer, the British leader of the opposition, argues “it’s not even on the horizon”.
Ms McDonald is a politician to her fingertips and speaks as one. “Touching distance” sounds very close until you put it in the “historic context” of half a millennium’s disputation.
Michelle O’Neill is appearing on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on Sky News from 8.30am this morning
World
President Raisi’s death a perilous moment for Iran regime – but don’t expect a change to foreign policy
This is a delicate time for Iran. President Raisi was the second most important man in Iran, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
His death, now confirmed, will have far-reaching consequences.
Although Khamenei has tried to reassure the country in recent hours, the regime will know this is a perilous moment that must be handled carefully.
Live updates – Iranian president killed in crash
There are mechanisms to protect the regime in events like this and the Revolutionary Guard, which was founded in 1979 precisely for that purpose, will be a major player in what comes next.
In the immediate term, vice-president Mohammed Mokhber will assume control and elections will be held within 50 days.
Mokhber isn’t as close to the supreme leader as Raisi was, and won’t enjoy his standing, but he has run much of Khamenei’s finances for years and is credited with helping Iran evade some of the many sanctions levied on it.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Drone footage of helicopter crash site
Raisi’s successor will most likely be the chosen candidate of the supreme leader and certainly another ultra-conservative hardliner – a shift back to the moderates is highly unlikely.
Likewise, we shouldn’t expect any significant change in Iran’s foreign activities or involvement with the war in Gaza. It will be business as usual, as much as possible.
However, after years of anti-government demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, this might be a moment for the protest movement to rise up and take to the streets again.
Read more:
Who was hardliner Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi?
‘Butcher of Tehran’ had fearsome reputation – many will fear instability
Hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi wins landslide victory
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Islamic State may seek to take advantage
There are also many dissident groups inside Iran, including an off-shoot of Islamic State – they might seek to take advantage of this situation.
Raisi became president in 2021 at the second time of asking and only with a turnout of 41%, the lowest since the 1979 revolution.
The president was considered one of the two frontrunners to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamanei (pictured). Pic: Reuters
He was not a universally popular figure and many inside Iran will celebrate his death.
Consequences for supreme leader
Longer term, Raisi’s death will have consequences for the supreme leader.
He was considered one of the two frontrunners to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamanei on his death – the other being Khamanei’s son Mojtaba.
For religious and conservative Iranians, Raisi’s death will be mourned; for many though, it will be the passing of a man who had blood on his hands.
World
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi confirmed dead in helicopter crash after charred wreckage found
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has died after the helicopter he was travelling in crashed in a mountainous area of northwest Iran.
Rescuers found the burned remains of the aircraft on Monday morning after the president and his foreign minister had been missing for more than 12 hours.
“President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash,” a senior Iranian official told Reuters, asking not to be named.
Live updates – Iranian president killed in crash
Iran‘s Mehr news agency reported “all passengers of the helicopter carrying the Iranian president and foreign minister were martyred”.
State TV said images showed it had smashed into a mountain peak, although there was no official word on the cause of the crash.
“President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash… unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead,” an official told Reuters.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
President of Iran killed in crash
The crash happened in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province
As the sun rose, rescuers saw the wreckage from around 1.25 miles, the head of the Iranian Red Crescent Society, Pir Hossein Kolivand, told state media.
Iranian news agency IRNA said the president was flying in an American-made Bell 212 helicopter.
Read more:
Who is Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi?
Many will be fearing instability after ‘butcher of Tehran’ killed
Iranian TV showed the president on the helicopter during a trip to Azerbaijan
TV pictures from Sunday showed thick fog at the search site. Pic: IRNA
Mr Raisi, 63, who was seen as a frontrunner to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, was travelling back from Azerbaijan where he had opened a dam with the country’s president.
Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, also died in the crash.
The governor of East Azerbaijan province and other officials and bodyguards were also said to have been on board when the helicopter crashed in fog on Sunday.
Iranian media initially described it as a “hard landing”.
The chief of staff of Iran’s army had ordered all military resources and the Revolutionary Guard to be deployed in the search, which had been hampered by bad weather.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to react to the news of Mr Raisi’s death.
“India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow,” he said in a post on X.
A helicopter carrying Iran’s president crashed during bad weather on Sunday.
But who is Ebrahim Raisi – a leader who faces sanctions from the US and other nations over his involvement in the mass execution of prisoners in 1988.
The president, 63, who was travelling alongside the foreign minister and two other key Iranian figures when their helicopter crashed, had been travelling across the far northwest of Iran following a visit to Azerbaijan.
Follow live: Rescuers search for president after helicopter crash
Mr Raisi is a hardliner and former head of the judiciary who some have suggested could one day replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Because of his part in the sentencing of thousands of prisoners of conscience to death back in the 1980s, he was nicknamed the Butcher of Tehran as he sat on the so-called Death Panel, for which he was then sanctioned by the US.
Raisi and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
Both a revered and a controversial figure, Mr Raisi supported the country’s security services as they cracked down on all dissent, including in the aftermath of the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini – the woman who died after she was arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly – and the nationwide protests that followed.
The months-long security crackdown killed more than 500 people and saw over 22,000 detained.
People light a fire during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini in Tehran, 2022. Pic: Reuters
In March, a United Nations investigative panel found that Iran was responsible for the “physical violence” that led to Ms Amini’s death after her arrest for not wearing a hijab, or headscarf, to the liking of authorities.
The president is seen as a frontrunner to replace Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (pictured). Pic: Reuters
The president also supported Iran’s unprecedented decision in April to launch a drone and missile attack on Israel amid its war with Hamas, the ruling militant group in Gaza responsible for the 7 October attacks which saw 1,200 people killed in southern Israel.
Involvement in mass executions
Mr Raisi is sanctioned by the US in part over his involvement in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 at the end of the bloody Iran-Iraq war.
Under the president, Iran now enriches uranium at nearly weapons-grade levels and hampers international inspections.
Iran has armed Russia in its war on Ukraine and has continued arming proxy groups in the Middle East, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
He successfully ran for the presidency back in August 2021 in a vote that got the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history as all of his potentially prominent opponents were barred from running under Iran’s vetting system.
A presidency run in 2017 saw him lose to Hassan Rouhani, the relatively moderate cleric who as president reached Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
‘Very involved in anything’
Alistair Bunkall, Sky News’s Middle East correspondent, said the president is “a major figure in Iranian political and religious society” but “he’s not universally popular by any means” as his administration has seen a series of protests in the past few years against his and the government’s “hardline attitude”.
Mr Raisi is nonetheless “considered one of the two frontrunners to potentially take over” the Iranian regime when the current supreme leader dies, Bunkall said.
He added the president would have been “instrumental” in many of Iran’s activities in the region as he “would’ve been very involved in anything particularly what has been happening in Israel and the surrounding areas like Lebanon and Gaza and the Houthis over the last seven and a bit months”.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Environment12 months agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports1 month agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports7 months agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment1 year agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Environment1 year agoTesla advances Powerwall pilot project with German electric company