A year ago, Meta finance chief Susan Li offered chilling commentary about the state of the digital ad market, telling analysts that the struggling industry would remain in a slump.
Speaking to analysts on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call, Li said at the time that Facebook’s revenue “remained under pressure from weak advertising demand” and that sales would continue “to be impacted by the uncertain and volatile macroeconomic landscape.”
During that period Meta’s ad revenue fell 4%, and Google’s ad business suffered a similar drop. Inflation, supply chain issues and global conflict were all depressing spending.
The narrative is very different now.
With results in from Alphabet, Meta and Amazon — the three U.S. leaders in digital advertising — it’s clear that the market has rebounded, at least for the time being.
Meta’s fourth-quarter ad sales jumped 24% from a year earlier to $38.7 billion, while Amazon’s booming ad unit rose 27% to $14.7 billion. Meanwhile Alphabet, still the market leader, saw its Google ad business rise 11% to $65.5 billion, boosted by 16% growth at YouTube.
Debra Aho Williamson, principal analyst at Insider Intelligence, told CNBC that big advertiser events like the Summer Olympics in Paris and the upcoming presidential elections will contribute to higher spending. Insider Intelligence said in a recent report that global ad spending will jump 10% in 2024, up from growth of 6.3% in 2023 and the same level of expansion the prior year.
“After two years of relative malaise, the outlook is very positive on a global scale and in every major region,” the report said.
Analysts at William Blair expressed similar sentiment. They said businesses appear less concerned with the Russia-Ukraine conflict than in the past and are seeing a potentially more favorable interest rate outlook.
“The current macroeconomic environment is continuing to improve for digital advertising,” they wrote, adding that investments by Meta and Alphabet into artificial intelligence to improve their ad platforms are paying off.
Investors will get additional data on the digital ad market when Snap and Pinterest report earnings this week. Those numbers could look quite different, Williamson said, because they’re “much smaller companies that have struggled to build substantial ad businesses, and in this environment, the big are getting bigger.”
On the whole, “digital advertising is continuing to eat up share” of worldwide advertising, Williamson said.
Whether the big players can maintain the momentum is a question that will persist for the coming quarters. One reason growth looks so strong now is because the numbers are being compared to the year-ago period, when conditions were bleak.
Another bump is coming from China-based advertisers, which are spending heavily to reach users across the globe. Meta said that sales from China represented 10% of revenue last year, and accounted for 5 percentage points of growth. Analysts have said online retailers Temu and Shein are the biggest contributors to Meta’s China business, and have raised concerns that such spending may not last.
Regarding Meta’s China business, Li told analysts last week that “the level of growth in 2023 will probably be hard to replicate, but we’ll just keep watching this and see how it plays out.”
Analysts at Bank of America Global Research warned in a note on Friday that investors shouldn’t look past the conflict in the Red Sea, which is causing supply chain bottlenecks and could lead ecommerce companies to reduce their ad spending.
“We think exposure for Alphabet & Meta is very modest,” they wrote.
Musk, the world’s richest person, started going after Navarro over the weekend, posting on X that a “PhD in econ from Harvard is a bad thing, not a good thing,” a reference to Navarro’s degree. Whatever subtlety remained at the beginning of the week has since vanished.
On Tuesday, Musk wrote that “Navarro is truly a moron,” noting that his comments about Tesla being a “car assembler,” as much are “demonstrably false.” Musk called Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before later apologizing to bricks. Musk also called Navarro “dangerously dumb.”
Musk’s attacks on Navarro represent the most public spat between members of President Trump’s inner circle since the term began in January, and show that the steep tariffs announced last week on more than 180 countries and territories don’t have universal approval in the administration.
When asked about the feud in a briefing on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs.”
“Boys will be boys, and we will let their public sparring continue,” she said.
For Musk, whose younger brother Kimbal — a restaurant owner, entrepreneur and Tesla board member — has joined in on the action, the name-calling appears to be tied to business conditions.
Tesla’s stock is down 22% in the past four trading sessions and 45% for the year. Tesla has lost more tha $585 billion in value since the calendar turned, equaling tens of billions of dollars in paper losses for Musk, who is also CEO of SpaceX and the owner of xAI and social network X.
Even before President Trump detailed his plan for widespread tariffs, he’d already placed a 25% tariff on vehicles not assembled in the U.S. Many analysts said Tesla could withstand those tariffs better than competitors because its vehicles sold in the U.S. are assembled domestically.
But the company’s production costs are poised to increase because of the tariffs on materials and parts from foreign suppliers. Canada and Mexico are among the leading sources of U.S. steel imports, and Canada is the nation’s largest supplier of aluminum, while China and Mexico are home to major suppliers of printed circuit boards to the automotive industry.
At a recent an event hosted by right-wing Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, Musk said, “Both Europe and the United States should move, ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America.”
Musk, whose view on trade relations with Europe stands in stark contrast to the policies implemented by the president, has a vested interest in the region. Tesla has a large car factory outside of Berlin, and the European Commission previously turned to SpaceX for launches.
Even before the tariffs, Tesla’s business was faltering. Last week, the company reported a 13% year-over-year decline in first-quarter deliveries, missing analysts’ estimates. That report that landed days after Tesla’s stock price wrapped up its worst quarter since 2022.
Musk, who spent roughly $290 billion to help return Trump to the White House, is now leading the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which has slashed costs, eliminated regulations and cut tens of thousands of federal jobs. In the first quarter, Tesla was hit with waves of protests, boycotts and some criminal activity that targeted vehicles and facilities in response to Musk’s political rhetoric and his work in the White House.
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, laughs as he attends a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 23, 2020.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
Apple‘s 23% plunge over the past four trading sessions has again turned Microsoft into the world’s most valuable public company.
As of Tuesday’s close, Microsoft is worth $2.64 trillion, while Apple’s market cap stands at $2.59 trillion.
While the market broadly is getting hammered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan, Apple is getting hit the hardest among tech’s megacap companies due to the iPhone maker’s reliance on China.
The Nasdaq is down 13% over the past four trading days, as President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports from more than 100 countries has sparked fears of a recession brought on by rising prices. UBS analysts on Monday predicted that the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could jump as much as $350 in the U.S.
Both Apple and Microsoft, along with chipmaker Nvidia, were previously valued at upward of $3 trillion before the recent sell-off.
In January, Microsoft issued disappointing revenue guidance. Nevertheless, last week, as Jefferies analysts reduced their price targets on many software stocks, they wrote Microsoft was among the “companies who we view as more insulated” from tariff uncertainty.
Technology stocks bounced Tuesday after three rocky trading sessions, spurred by rising optimism that President Donald Trump could potentially negotiate tariff deals with world leaders.
The sector is coming off a wild trading session after speculation that the White House could potentially delay tariffs fueled volatile swings. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Nvidia finished higher, while Apple, Microsoft and Tesla posted losses.
Trump’s wide-sweeping tariff plans have sparked violent turbulence over the last three trading sessions. Trading volume on Monday hit its highest in nearly two decades. Technology stocks gyrated after the Nasdaq Composite posted its worst week in five years and the Magnificent Seven group lost $1.8 trillion in market value over two trading sessions.
Chipmakers were excluded from the recent tariffs, but have come under pressure on worries that higher duties could diminish demand for products they are used in and slow the economy. The sector is also expected to see tariffs further down the road.
Elsewhere, Broadcom surged 9% after announcing a $10 billion share buyback plan through the end of the year. Marvell Technology also bounced more than 9% after agreeing to sell its auto ethernet business for $2.5 billion in cash to Infineon Technologies.