MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1 on our winter list?
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2 years agoon
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Players soon will be reporting to camps, and yet, some of the top free agents still haven’t signed. So while we wait, let’s take a look ahead toward the start of the 2024 season.
Where does every team stand heading into spring training? Did the Dodgers’ offseason acquisitions push them to the No. 1 spot? Where are the reigning World Series champions in our rankings? And where do Aaron Judge and Juan Soto’s Yankees sit?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far this offseason and what we already knew from 2023. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Way-too-early MLB Power Rankings
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 3
The Dodgers’ offseason has been an absolute dream. They splurged for a billion dollars on a transformative two-way player in Shohei Ohtani and a 25-year-old starting pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is coming off three consecutive MVPs in Japan. In case that wasn’t enough, they acquired one of the most prized pitchers on the trade market, Tyler Glasnow, and arguably the best corner outfielder in free agency, Teoscar Hernandez. They’re an absolute force, even more so on the heels of another 100-win season.
But it’s still fair to wonder about their rotation. Ohtani won’t pitch until 2025, Yamamoto hasn’t faced major league hitters, Glasnow is not far removed from Tommy John surgery, and Walker Buehler is coming off a second such procedure. Their other starting pitching acquisition, James Paxton, comes with his own injury concerns. — Gonzalez
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 1
With last season’s record-setting lineup returning, the Braves could have had a quiet offseason, but instead they made two of the more interesting transactions of the winter, trading for left fielder Jarred Kelenic and pitcher Chris Sale. Kelenic was once a top-10 overall prospect but never lived up to the hype in Seattle; he’s still just 24, however, and did improve last season (.253/.327/.419). Sale made 20 starts for Boston last season, his most since 2019, and fanned 125 in 102⅔ innings. He still has top-of-the-rotation stuff if he can remain healthy. — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 9
Houston advanced to the American League Championship Series for the seventh consecutive season in 2023, and there are a lot of reasons to believe the Astros could do that again — maybe more so than in past seasons — behind Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and the newly signed Josh Hader. But how dangerous Houston is may largely depend on whether Framber Valdez rediscovers his sinker, which largely abandoned him late in the year. Over his last 10 regular-season starts, he averaged 4⅔ innings and had a 4.29 ERA, and his ERA was 9.00 in the postseason. Houston’s season might come down to this: Can Framber find it? — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 5
Is a reunion with Jordan Montgomery inevitable? Don’t bet against it, as agent Scott Boras is in a good position with Rangers brass. Boras directed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to Texas and undoubtedly helped in moving Montgomery and Max Scherzer there as well via trade last summer. As the Rangers’ RSN situation clears up, they should be able to pounce and set themselves up for a repeat run. And don’t forget, Jacob deGrom is waiting in the wings as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Texas is in a good position to contend, no matter what happens the rest of the spring. — Rogers
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 2
In Corbin Burnes, Baltimore now has the veteran ace it needed, and you’d assume that with the promise of financial backing from potential new ownership, the Orioles will add bullpen depth. The O’s won 101 games last season, yet already, this is a much more complete team than in 2024 — and now there’s no question about whether the front office and the owners will spend to plug holes at the trade deadline. Now O’s fans can wonder — and dream — about how quickly Jackson Holliday will make an impact in the big leagues. He is the easy front-runner to win AL Rookie of the Year. — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 6
Other than re-signing Aaron Nola and making a run at Yamamoto, it’s been a quiet offseason. They showed interest in relievers Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson but failed to sign either one. For now, that leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the No. 5 starter, rookie Orion Kerkering with a prominent role in the bullpen and Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache in center field (with Brandon Marsh in left). In other words, the Phillies didn’t make up any ground on the Braves. — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 16
If this master plan had played out the way owner Hal Steinbrenner wanted, Yoshinobu Yamamoto would have taken the Yankees’ money and slotted in behind Gerrit Cole in the rotation. But that didn’t happen, and now the Yankees will go into the season with uncertainty about their rotation depth. Will Nestor Cortes stay healthy? Will the Yankees get what they paid for in the second year of Carlos Rodon‘s contract, at a time when he’s on double-secret probation with Yankees fans? Will Clarke Schmidt evolve? Will they make a late-winter addition? — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 4
Maybe the biggest question for the Rays going into the offseason was whether Wander Franco — who was supposed to be the face of the franchise — would be available to the team in 2024. His future status seems more uncertain than ever, because no matter when his legal situation is resolved, he still faces discipline from MLB, as well as persistent visa questions. Without Franco, can the Rays come close to matching their offensive production of 2023, when they led AL East teams in runs? — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 12
The D-backs have responded to their surprising World Series run by doubling down, adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the middle of their rotation and injecting Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson into the middle of their lineup. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was brought back, too, solidifying left field. Arizona has done a nice job adding the pieces that would make its roster more complete. The concerns it had heading into October about the depth in the rotation and the back end of the bullpen are not nearly as prevalent. The D-backs’ biggest question heading into 2024 is more overarching: Are they good enough to once again take down the mighty Dodgers? — Gonzalez
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 8
It really seems impossible that Toronto didn’t make the playoffs last season despite having the best rotation in the majors, but that fact really underscores how poorly the offense performed in 2023. The Jays were 16th in home runs and 14th in runs scored in the majors, surprising numbers for a team that has Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., so the mystery surrounding Toronto in 2024 is: How can a lineup that is largely the same be better? The one major change so far is the addition of Justin Turner, who effectively replaces free agent Brandon Belt. — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 11
Deep breath. With a perhaps lower-than-anticipated payroll budget, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been up to his usual creative approach to team building. To recap: Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Luis Urias, Mitch Haniger, Luke Raley, Samad Taylor, Seby Zavala, Carlos Vargas and Austin Voth are in. Gone are Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Robbie Ray, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani (who was only barely here), Jose Caballero, Mike Ford, Tom Murphy, Marco Gonzales and Isaiah Campbell. Is the new group better? Hard to tell. The rotation remains intact, although bullpen depth looks like an issue, and Haniger and Urias will have to bounce back from miserable seasons. — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 13
Unlike the Rangers’ relationship with Boras, the Cubs haven’t lined up with his clients over the recent past. It’s a built-in roadblock to a reunion with Cody Bellinger or a match with third baseman Matt Chapman. And it’s a risky game of chicken for both sides. Bellinger might not have another big market available to him, while the Cubs won’t have much of an offense without him. The team isn’t likely to blink, believing their second-ranked farm system, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, is about to explode. Will Boras blink? Perhaps he’ll be forced to accept a smaller deal — but no one knows how this will shake out. — Rogers
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 7
Is Milwaukee in transition or can it continue to contend with new manager Pat Murphy? Signing Rhys Hoskins addressed several needs, as the Brewers have had a rotation of first baseman over the past several seasons. Not anymore, though — Hoskins should provide power and leadership on a team that lost its stalwarts on the mound, first Brandon Woodruff to free agency and now Corbin Burnes in a trade with Baltimore. So one step forward on offense but one step back on the mound, where Milwaukee will struggle to replace quality innings lost. It’s the big question heading into spring: Who will step forward at the top of the rotation after Freddy Peralta? — Rogers
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 15
Cincinnati worked more quickly than a lot of teams in shoring up its pitching staff this offseason, signing four free agent pitchers and corner infielder Jeimer Candelario. If anything, the Reds might have to alleviate a logjam in the infield, but that’s a good problem to have. Their spring is about keeping their team healthy — especially a staff that lost youngsters Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft last season. There should be no excuses this year as the Reds have talent throughout the roster. They could be a sneaky pick in a wide-open division. — Rogers
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 10
No team seems more affected by the murky RSN situation than the Twins, who spent the winter more focused on managing payroll than on upgrading the roster. They lost ace Sonny Gray to free agency, traded Jorge Polanco and largely bypassed winter markets. All of that means that more than ever the Twins will need their core stars to stay on the field — and Byron Buxton (who says he intends to return to center field), Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis all have extensive injury histories. — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 17
The Padres, still shaken by the death of revolutionary owner Peter Seidler, decided to cut costs this offseason and will field a far less talented team in 2024. Juan Soto and Hader are gone. Eventually Blake Snell will be, too. They’ve replaced them with a slew of controllable starting pitchers — largely through Soto’s trade to the Yankees — and a completely replenished bullpen. But they still desperately need help in the outfield and could use another bat at first base and/or designated hitter. Another top-of-the-rotation starter would certainly help, too, but it would have to come via trade. — Gonzalez
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 19
Theo Epstein is going to go down in history as the greatest general manager ever because he conquered the Mount Everest and the K2 of World Series droughts, with the Red Sox in 2004 and then the Cubs in 2016. But it seems strange that adding him to the front office will be the biggest move of the offseason for a Red Sox team that needs help all over the place. Boston needs more offensive production, more pitching — but the front-burner question is whether manager Alex Cora signs an extension. — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 22
Are the Mets good? Are they bad? Somewhere in the middle? Probably somewhere in the middle. Their big goal was to sign Yamamoto, and once that didn’t happen, they focused on second-tier (Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader) and third-tier free agents (Jorge Lopez, Joey Wendle). They acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers. They’ll need bounce-back seasons from Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil and improved results from youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty. — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 25
The Cardinals filled all their holes this offseason but did quantity replace quality? Age was the theme of their pitching acquisitions, but that’s at least offset by 21-year-old shortstop Masyn Winn, who is on the verge of taking over up the middle. And don’t forget outfielder Jordan Walker, who has a year under his belt and quietly performed well for a bad team last year. But the biggest questions surround starters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Can they perform at the back of the rotation while Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas hold down the front? That answer will go a long way to determining the outcome of the Cardinals season. — Rogers
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 21
If you’re looking for a sleeper pick, you could do worse than Detroit climbing in the AL Central after an improved second-half showing. The talent that the Tigers have collected in recent years is beginning to manifest. But look, Detroit is not going to climb unless there is more consistent offense; the Tigers finished 28th in runs scored in 2023. Will young players such as Riley Greene and older players such as Javy Baez generate more runs? — Olney
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 20
Everyone loves the young rotation here, as Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen all had promising rookie seasons, but Cleveland has failed to address what was the worst power-hitting outfield in the majors in decades (a combined 18 home runs). They did acquire Estevan Florial from the Yankees and he hit 28 home runs in Triple-A but with a ton of swing-and-miss (144 strikeouts in 101 games). Prospect George Valera hasn’t developed the power once expected and hit .211 in Triple-A. Where will the offense come from? — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 18
The Giants ranked dead last in innings from their starting pitchers last season. They’ve responded by … signing a longtime reliever whom they’ll convert to a starting pitcher and trading for a former ace who won’t return until midseason at the earliest. Maybe Jordan Hicks is excellent out of the rotation and Robbie Ray, coming off Tommy John surgery, miraculously finds his Cy Young form over the last two months of the regular season. But there are nonetheless major questions within this rotation, not the least of which is Alex Cobb‘s return from hip surgery. The lineup also has plenty of holes, even after the Jung Hoo Lee signing. — Gonzalez
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 14
The Marlins made the playoffs in 2023 — and have essentially sat out the offseason, which isn’t quite the same as the fire sale that followed the 1997 World Series title but isn’t exactly encouraging for Marlins fans, either. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has done more evaluation than maneuvering, which isn’t necessarily the wrong decision here for a team that was outscored by 57 runs, has a weak farm system and will be without Sandy Alcantara while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 23
Other than signing Aroldis Chapman, the Pirates haven’t made many changes to their roster this winter. They might simply be hoping that this is the year their young but talented group comes through for longer than a month or two. Pittsburgh garnered headlines last spring but faded as the calendar turned to summer and the pitching staff crumbled. But former first overall pick Henry Davis got his feet wet, the young staff got needed experience and shortstop Oneil Cruz is healthy again. It’s still probably not enough to compete for six months, but the Pirates will be a thorn for some teams with manager Derek Shelton keeping his players motivated through good and bad times. — Rogers
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 24
The Angels were dealt the most devastating blow imaginable when they lost Shohei Ohtani to the crosstown rival Dodgers this offseason. They have yet to replace him as a starting pitcher and haven’t really replaced him as a hitter, either. Angels GM Perry Minasian has done a nice job deepening his bullpen but hasn’t done much else outside of adding veteran outfielder Aaron Hicks. The Angels, with a farm system that ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked dead last heading into 2024, need plenty more help offensively and could use a top-of-the-rotation starter to boost a young staff. But unless they splurge on Cody Bellinger or Snell, it’s hard to see how they access that without significantly compromising their active roster. — Gonzalez
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 29
Hey, at least the Royals are trying to get better, although there are mixed opinions on the overall quality of the additions: Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Garrett Hampson, Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe. Lugo and Wacha are the biggest keys, two guys who were pretty good last season and will help what was a terrible rotation. If Brady Singer bounces back and Cole Ragans is indeed the real deal that he was in the final two months of 2023, it will be the best rotation for the Royals since their World Series years. — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 26
The Nationals acquired Nick Senzel from the Reds and signed Joey Gallo, two moves that would have been much more exciting a few years ago. Senzel was the second overall pick in 2016 but battled injuries and put up a 77 OPS+ over five seasons with the Reds. He’ll get a chance to be the regular third baseman. Gallo has two 40-homer seasons and hit 38 as recently as 2021, but his batting averages haven’t been great the past three seasons: .199, .160 and .177. Since going to the Yankees at the trade deadline in 2021, he has produced just 1.2 WAR. — Schoenfield
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 27
The White Sox are treating the offseason like they’re coming off a 100-win year instead of the 102 they actually lost. It has translated to some interesting pickups but mostly on the margins. Erick Fedde is an example. He’s part of a rebuilt starting staff that still features Dylan Cease — but for how long? Cease is likely to begin, but not finish, the season with the team, as trade talks will heat up again come summertime. The biggest question marks this offseason are in right field and second base, positions Chicago hasn’t nailed down for several years. Newcomer Nicky Lopez will get time at second while Gavin Sheets might be the Opening Day right fielder. Rinse and repeat. The White Sox are stuck in neutral — at best. — Rogers
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 28
The Rockies’ pitching staff, which will be without both German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela for at least the first half, posted a major-league-worst 5.67 ERA last season. The front office responded with the additions of Cal Quantrill, Dakota Hudson and Anthony Molina, the latter a Rule 5 pick. That probably won’t cut it. The offense — despite playing half its games at Coors Field, of all places — was only 20th in OPS. Rather than make additions there, the Rockies will seemingly just hope for more health from Kris Bryant, more development from Ezequiel Tovar and more awesomeness from Nolan Jones. So, yeah, there are still plenty of questions about the Rockies heading into 2024. It’s much harder to find answers, frankly. — Gonzalez
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Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 30
The big question for the A’s heading into 2024 is a simple one: When are they actually going to try again? They stripped their roster down to the studs while seeking a permanent home last season, and though they have since settled on Las Vegas, they still seemingly have no idea where they will play from 2025 to 2027. The A’s have lost a combined 214 games over the past two seasons, and there’s no indication they won’t lose at least another 100 more in 2024. All of their offseason additions have come on the margins. — Gonzalez
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Sports
CFP Bubble Watch after Tuesday’s ranking: Who needs a win during Rivalry Week?
Published
1 hour agoon
November 26, 2025By
admin

Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
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Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
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First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
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Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
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First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
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Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
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First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
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Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
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First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
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Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
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Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.

Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Sports
Week 14 Anger Index: Why Notre Dame deserves the benefit of the doubt
Published
1 hour agoon
November 26, 2025By
admin

-

David HaleNov 25, 2025, 08:28 PM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.

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This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
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Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
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Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
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Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
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The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
Sports
Top 5 of CFP unchanged; Ducks leapfrog Ole Miss
Published
2 hours agoon
November 26, 2025By
admin

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Andrea AdelsonNov 25, 2025, 07:59 PM ET
Close- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech remained the top five teams in the latest College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, while Oregon jumped ahead of Ole Miss after its win over USC.
The Ducks are now No. 6, with Ole Miss at No. 7 — the only change to the top 10 from a week ago. Oklahoma remains at No. 8, followed by Notre Dame at No. 9, Alabama at No. 10 and BYU at No. 11.
“We’ve been waiting for them to have that signature win to really put them where they need to be,” CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek said of Oregon.
Miami moved ahead of Utah to No. 12, while the Utes dropped to No. 13 following a come-from-behind 51-47 win over 5-6 Kansas State. Despite the head-to-head win over the Irish, the Hurricanes remain three spots behind in the latest rankings as they push for an at-large spot. Vanderbilt stayed at No. 14 while Michigan moved up three spots to No. 15.
Yurachek said Miami and Notre Dame were close enough in the rankings this week to be compared head-to-head, and in the same pool as Alabama and one-loss BYU.
Still, the committee feels Notre Dame “is a complete team,” according to Yurachek, and “deserves to be ranked where they are.”
Texas is No. 16, USC is No. 17, Virginia is No. 18, Tennessee is No. 19 and Arizona State is No. 20.
SMU enters the rankings at No. 21, followed by Pitt, Georgia Tech, Tulane and Arizona.
With Rivalry Week set to begin, there could be major ramifications to the rankings. All eyes will be on the Egg Bowl first, when Ole Miss plays Mississippi State on Friday with a possible CFP berth on the line for the Rebels. Coach Lane Kiffin is expected to announce a decision about his future the following day.
If he opts to leave Ole Miss, making him unavailable to coach the team in the CFP, the selection committee could take his departure into account when ranking the Rebels.
According to CFP protocol, the committee can consider the loss of key players or coaches when ranking teams. In 2023, the committee left Florida State out of the four-team playoff in part because starting quarterback Jordan Travis was out for the season.
“It is in the protocol, but I’m not sure we will have a data point to use that as part of the protocol,” Yurachek said during the ESPN broadcast, referring to the potential departure of Kiffin.
When asked to elaborate by ESPN’s Rece Davis, Yurachek said the committee “will not have seen [Ole Miss] play without a coach,” in reference to Kiffin.
There are other big rivalry games with possible CFP ramifications: No. 3 Texas A&M travels to No. 16 Texas on Friday night. A win for the Aggies clinches a spot in the SEC championship game. Alabama is at Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, with an SEC championship game appearance at stake.
No. 15 Michigan hosts No. 1 Ohio State as the Wolverines push for a possible spot in the Big Ten title game or as an at-large team. Ohio State has lost four straight to its rival, but a win Saturday would put the Buckeyes into the Big Ten title game.
Meanwhile in the ACC, No. 18 Virginia hosts rival Virginia Tech. A win for the Cavaliers puts them in the ACC championship game.
The five highest-ranked conference champions will make the 12-team field, but there is a tweak to the format this year, as the committee is using a straight seeding model. The top four teams in the final ranking, regardless of conference championship, will receive a first-round bye.
If the playoffs were held today, these would be the first-round matchups: Tulane at Texas Tech, Miami at Oregon, Alabama at Ole Miss and Notre Dame at Oklahoma. Though Miami is slotted in as the highest-ranked ACC team, the Hurricanes have long odds to win the conference title (9%, according to ESPN FPI).
SMU is the current ESPN FPI favorite to win the ACC, at 55%. A win over Cal on Saturday puts the Mustangs into the ACC title game for the second straight season.
There are multiple scenarios for Miami to make the ACC title game, and they all involve a win at No. 22 Pitt plus a combination of losses among the other ACC teams that are currently 6-1 in conference play.
The SEC continues to lead the way with eight ranked teams, while the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 each have five. Tulane remains the lone Group of 5 representative at No. 24.
The final CFP rankings will be announced Dec. 7, the day after the conference championships. The four first-round games will be played at the home campuses of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 19 and 20. The four quarterfinal games will be played at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31), the Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and the Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The two semifinal games will take place at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl and the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 8 and 9, respectively.
The CFP National Championship game is Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
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