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Not very long ago, the harshest thing Nikki Haley would say about Donald Trump was that chaos follows hima sort of benign jab that creatively avoids causation and suggests mere correlation, like noting that scorched trees tend to appear after a forest fire.

For most of the Republican-primary campaign to date, Haley adopted a carefully modulated approach toward the former president, and reserved most of her barbs for her other primary rivals. Her motto seemed to be Speak softly about Trump and carry a sharp stick for Vivek Ramaswamy. Recently, though, Haley has made a hard pivot.

Read: What Nikki Haley (maybe) learned in New Hampshire

Just two days after she came in (a distant) second to Trump in the New Hampshire primary, she began fundraising for the first time off his attacks on herselling T-shirts with the slogan BARRED PERMANENTLY after the former president said that anyone who continues to support her will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp, whatever that means.

In the past week, Haley has been on a tear, calling Trump totally unhinged, toxic, self-absorbed, and lacking in moral clarity. Her campaign unleashed a new attack-ad series in which Trump and President Joe Biden are portrayed as two grumpy old men standing in the way of the next generation. And yesterday, Haley posted a gag photo of a Trump Halloween costume labeled Weakest General Election Candidate Ever. To paraphrase the words of the Democratic-primary candidate Marianne Williamson, Girlfriend, this is so on.

Such an aggressive posture is new for Haley, and Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans have applauded her for it. She should have been talking this way all along, some of her supporters argue. If she started it sooner, she wouldve cut the lead in New Hampshire, Chip Felkel, a Republican strategist in South Carolina, told me. In his view, Haley thought she had to play nice to win over Trump voters: But this aint a nice game.

Can Haley still achieve anything by playing hardball at this point? Things dont look promising. Her bid to defeat Trump is already the longest of long shots, based on the polls coming out of virtually every state, including Haleys own South Carolina. So whats the point of changing things up? Why muster the courage to smack-talk Trump now, when the race seems all but over? I asked a number of political strategists and experts for their view, and pieced together a few plausible theories. (Neither the Haley nor the Trump campaign responded to a request for comment.)

1. Attacking Trump is easier now.
The most obvious theory for Haleys more combative rhetoric is that with only one other major candidate still in the primary, the task of drawing a direct contrast with Trump is much simpler. If you have six people in a race and a couple are attacking a couple others, its hard to predict how thats going to work in terms of driving your ballots, David Kochel, a longtime Iowa Republican strategist, told me. When its a multi-candidate field, youve got to tell your own story. After Iowa, thats resolved, he said, and so she has no choice but to turn her attention to Trump.

The jabs are meant to draw Trump outto pressure him to join her on a debate stage or to provoke a tantrum that turns off his potential voters and motivates her own. She needs him to make a mistake, Kochel said. She needs some intervening activity, some dynamic that is not completely in her control.

Maybe this is a good moment for Haley to exploit Trumps weakness with women voters. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Biden beats Trump with the support of women, a new Quinnipiac poll showed, and that gender gap appears to be growing. Last week, Haley dragged Trump over his defamation-case loss to E. Jean Carroll, in which he was ordered to pay $83 million in additional defamation damages to the woman whom he was previously found liable for defaming and sexually abusing. Haley is running the Taylor Swift strategy in the primary, Steve Bannon, Trumps former White House chief strategist, told me. Shes playing to the Trump is toxic womens vote. The pop stars apparent potential to influence Americans, and especially women, to vote Democratic, coupled with the results of the Quinnipiac poll, represent deep, underlying forces that need to be addressed, Bannon saidsomething Haley will continue to seize on.

2. Haleys anti-Trump rhetoric represents the death throes of her campaign.
Haleys campaign has followed the same trajectory as several other Republicans efforts in the Trump era: They might have avoided attacking him directly at first, but when their prospects dimmed, they lashed out. Marco Rubio mocked Trumps small hands just before dropping out of the race; Ted Cruz called Trump a pathological liar at the tail end of his own campaign. It seems like they all have consultants in their ear telling them if they take on Trump directly, they are going to crater support with the base, which is true, Tim Miller, a political consultant and writer at the conservative outlet The Bulwark, told me. Then, finally, when theyre up against the wall and in the final stages, they figure its worth a shot.

Read: What is Nikki Haley even talking about?

Maybe ratcheting up the combativeness is a form of emotional catharsis. When I asked the Democratic strategist James Carville about Haleys change in approach, he texted me that Haley is tired, scared & pissed off. Because shes trailing Trump in her own state, certain doom in SC is eating at her. NEVER discount the human element. Haley now sounds a lot more like she did behind closed doors during the Trump administration, Mike Murphy, a Republican consultant, told me, citing conversations hes had with former Haley staffers. This is Nikki therapy, he said. Shes just having fun poking him in the eye, getting all her ya-yas out. Its the most entertaining dead-cat bounce in history.

3. Haley is giving her donors what they want.
Haleys billionaire supporters adore this new, aggressively anti-Trump candidate, and theyre rewarding her with cash. Nikkis more aggressive posture toward Trump was welcomed as it is communicating the stark choice in front of the party, Bill Berrien, the CEO of the manufacturer Pindel Global Precision, who hosted a fundraiser for Haley in New York, told The Washington Post. Cliff Asness, a co-founder of AQR Capital Management and a Haley donor, wrote on X that, in response to Trumps attacks, he may have to contribute more to her.

At least some of these funders are convinced that Haley still has a shot. Shes got donors saying, You have a credible campaign, and you never know when Trump is going to choke to death on a meatloaf, Murphy said. Whether or not Haley believes that, shes going along with it. The odds that she might become the nominee through an act of God or a brokered convention, after all, are probably better than buying a Power Ball ticket. Its a clutching-at-straws thing, but shes got the best straw in town to clutch on, Murphy said. Why the hell not? Its free and fun.

4. Haley is looking to a post-Trump future.
A few weeks ago, rumors circulated that Haley might be on Trumps shortlist for vice president. If the decision, though unlikely, went her way, that could set her up to be Trumps political heir. But Haleys recent hostility toward Trumpand his splenetic responsehave surely shut the door on that possibility. Instead, Haley is staking out her own territory.

Shes not done. Shes running for 2028, Sarah Isgur, a senior editor at The Dispatch and a former deputy campaign manager for the 2016 Republican presidential hopeful Carly Fiorina, told me. Trump has changed her brand-thinking. Instead of gunning for some sort of role in MAGA world, Haley can portray herself as the last person standing in the war against Trumpisma position that many men before her have fought for and failed to achieve. If she can do that, she can consolidate a leadership future for herself, post-Trump, Isgur said.

Haley will be able to say I told you so if Trump loses to Bidn in Novemberor if he wins but then governs disastrously. Shell be the good conservative who tried to warn you, Murphy said. This also means that after the race is over, shell have to lie low for a while, and not join other Trump rivals turned grovelers, including Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Shes playing the long-term game, Murphy said.

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Starmer navigates Trump minefield

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Starmer navigates Trump minefield

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

After yesterday’s pomp and pageantry at Windsor, today the US president gets down to business, meeting with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at Chequers.

Sam and Anne look at what’s on the agenda and what the leaders might be forced to talk about, ranging from the recognition of a Palestinian state to their nations’ associations with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Away from the state visit, Sam has some intel on government exercises and more on the dynamics between the PM and his chief of staff.

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Trump-Starmer talks could be landmark moment – and join pantheon of UK-US summits

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Trump-Starmer talks could be landmark moment - and join pantheon of UK-US summits

In years to come, it may become known simply as Chequers ’25.

But today’s summit between Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump, at the prime minister’s country retreat, has the potential to be a landmark moment in UK-US history.

There’s plenty of scope for it to go horribly wrong, of course: over Jeffrey Epstein, Sir Keir’s pledge to recognise Palestine, the president’s lukewarm support for Ukraine, the Chagos Islands sell-off, or free speech.

Trump state visit live – read the latest

But on the other hand, it could be a triumph for the so-called “special relationship” – as well as relations between these two unlikely allies – with deals on trade and tariffs and an improbably blossoming bromance.

Either way, this Chequers summit – on the president’s historic second state visit to the UK – could turn out to be one of the most notable one-to-one meetings between PM and president in 20th and 21st century history.

Sir Keir and Mr Trump have already met several times, most recently at The Donald’s golf courses in Scotland in late July and, before that, memorably at the White House in February.

Donald Trump and Keir Starmer wave as they board Air Force One on a previous trip. Pic: AP
Image:
Donald Trump and Keir Starmer wave as they board Air Force One on a previous trip. Pic: AP

It was then that the PM theatrically pulled King Charles’s invitation for this week’s visit out of his inside pocket in a spectacular stunt surely masterminded by the “Prince of Darkness”, spin doctor-turned-ambassador (until last week, anyway) Peter Mandelson.

And over the years, there have been some remarkable and historic meetings and relationships, good and bad, between UK prime ministers and American presidents.

From Churchill and Roosevelt to Eden and Eisenhower, from Macmillan and JFK to Wilson and Johnson, from Thatcher and Reagan, to Blair and Bush, and from Cameron and Obama… to Starmer and Trump, perhaps?

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‘History’ that binds the UK and US

A brief history of relationships between PMs and presidents

Throughout UK-US history, there have been many examples of a good relationship and close bond between a Labour prime minister and a Republican president. And vice versa.

Also, it has not always been rosy between prime ministers and presidents of the two sister parties. There have been big fallings out: over Suez, Vietnam and the Caribbean island of Grenada.

Leading up to this Chequers summit, the omens have not been good.

First, the PM was forced to sack his vital link between Downing Street and the Oval Office, Lord Mandelson, over his friendship with Epstein.

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Trump meets Starmer: What can we expect?

Second, the president arrived in the UK to a barrage of criticism from London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan, who accused him of doing more than anyone else to encourage the intolerant far right across the globe.

And third, in a video-link to the “Unite the Kingdom” march in London last weekend, one-time Trump ally Elon Musk called for a dissolution of parliament and a change of government and appeared to encourage violent protest.

Churchill and FDR

Churchill and FDR at the White House in 1941. Pic: AP
Image:
Churchill and FDR at the White House in 1941. Pic: AP

Back in the mid-20th century, the godfather of the “special relationship” was wartime leader Sir Winston Churchill, though it was 1946 before he first coined the phrase in a speech in the US, in which he also spoke of the “iron curtain”.

It was in 1941 that Churchill held one of the most significant meetings with a US president, Franklin D Roosevelt, at a Washington conference to plot the defeat of Germany after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour.

Churchill arrived in Washington in December after a rough 10-day voyage on a Royal Navy battleship and stayed three weeks, spending Christmas in the White House and on Boxing Day becoming the first UK PM to address Congress.

The close bond between Churchill and Roosevelt was described as a friendship that saved the world. It was even claimed one reason the pair got on famously was that they were both renowned cigar smokers.

Churchill and Truman

Churchill and Truman catch a train from Washington in 1946. Pic: AP
Image:
Churchill and Truman catch a train from Washington in 1946. Pic: AP

After the war ended, Churchill’s “special relationship” speech, describing the alliance between the UK and US, was delivered at Westminster College, in Fulton, Missouri in March 1946.

The speech was introduced by president Harry Truman, a Democrat, with whom Churchill had attended the Potsdam Conference in 1945 to negotiate the terms of ending the war.

These two were also close friends and would write handwritten letters to each other and address one another as Harry and Winston. Mr Truman was also the only US president to visit Churchill at Chartwell, his family home.

Eden and Eisenhower

Eden and Eisenhower shake hands at the conclusion of their three-day conference in 1956. Pic: AP
Image:
Eden and Eisenhower shake hands at the conclusion of their three-day conference in 1956. Pic: AP

But the transatlantic cosiness came to an abrupt end in the 1950s, when Churchill’s Conservative successor Anthony Eden fell out badly with the Republican president Dwight Eisenhower over the Suez Crisis.

Mr Eden did visit Mr Eisenhower in Washington in January 1956, and the official record of the meeting describes the discussion as focussing on “policy differences and Cold War problems”.

Macmillan and JFK

Harold Macmillan and John F Kennedy at Andrews Air Force Base. Pic: AP
Image:
Harold Macmillan and John F Kennedy at Andrews Air Force Base. Pic: AP

But in the early 1960s, a Conservative prime minister and a Democrat president with seemingly nothing in common, the stuffy and diffident Harold Macmillan, and the charismatic John F Kennedy, repaired the damage.

They were credited with rescuing the special relationship after the rupture of the Suez Crisis, at a time of high tensions around the world: the Berlin Wall, the Cuban missile crisis, and the threat of nuclear weapons.

The two leaders exchanged handwritten notes, as well as Christmas and birthday cards. The Macmillans visited the Kennedys twice at the White House, in 1961 and 1962 – the second described in the US as a “momentous” meeting on the Cuban crisis.

The relationship was abruptly cut short in 1963 by Supermac’s demise prompted by the Profumo scandal, and JFK’s assassination in Dallas. But after her husband’s death, Jacqueline Kennedy was said to have had a father-daughter relationship with Macmillan, who was said to have been enchanted with her.

Wilson and LBJ

Johnson meeting with Wilson. Pic: Glasshouse Images/Shutterstock
Image:
Johnson meeting with Wilson. Pic: Glasshouse Images/Shutterstock

After JFK, the so-called special relationship cooled once again – and under a Labour prime minister and Democrat president – when Harold Wilson rejected pressure from Lyndon B Johnson to send British troops to Vietnam.

Mr Wilson became prime minister in 1964, just two months after LBJ sent US troops. His first overseas trip was to the White House, in December 1964, and the PM returned to tell his cabinet: “Lyndon Johnson is begging me even to send a bagpipe band to Vietnam.”

Thatcher and Reagan

Thatcher at Reagan's 83rd birthday celebrations. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Thatcher at Reagan’s 83rd birthday celebrations. Pic: Reuters

And even though Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were ideological soulmates, Thatcher was furious when she wasn’t consulted before the Americans invaded Grenada in 1983 to topple a Marxist regime.

Even worse, according to Mrs Thatcher’s allies, a year earlier, Reagan had stayed neutral during the Falklands War. Reagan said he couldn’t understand why two US allies were arguing over “that little ice-cold bunch of land down there”.

Thatcher and Reagan became firm friends. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Thatcher and Reagan became firm friends. Pic: Reuters

But their relationship didn’t just survive, it flourished, including at one memorable visit to the presidential retreat at Camp David in 1984, where Reagan famously drove Mrs T around in a golf buggy.

They would also memorably dance together at White House balls.

Blair and Bush

Blair hosts Bush in Durham in 2003. Pic: PA
Image:
Blair hosts Bush in Durham in 2003. Pic: PA

Camp David was also where, in 2001, Republican president George W Bush and Labour’s Sir Tony Blair embarked on the defining mission of his premiership: the Iraq War. It was to prove to be an historic encounter.

The war was the turning point of Sir Tony’s decade in Number 10. He was branded a liar over claims about Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction”, he was vilified by the Labour left, and it was the beginning of the end for him.

And to add to the suspicion among Sir Tony’s critics that he was Mr Bush’s poodle, in 2006 at a G8 summit in St Petersburg – that wouldn’t happen now – a rogue microphone picked up the president calling, “Yo, Blair! How are you doing?”

Cameron and Obama

Cameron and Obama serve food at a barbecue in the garden of 10 Downing Street. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Cameron and Obama serve food at a barbecue in the garden of 10 Downing Street. Pic: Reuters

Some years later, the Tory prime minister sometimes called the “heir to Blair”, David Cameron, bonded over burgers with the Democrat president Barack Obama, serving a BBQ lunch to military families in the Downing Street garden. They also played golf at the exclusive Grove resort in 2016.

They seemed unlikely allies: Obama, the first African-American president, and Cameron, the 19th old Etonian prime minister. It was claimed they had a “transatlantic bromance” in office. “Yes, he sometimes calls me bro,” Lord Cameron admitted.

But not everything went well.

The Tory PM persuaded Mr Obama to help the Remain campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum, when he claimed the UK would be “at the back of the queue” on trade deals with the US, if it left the EU. It backfired, of course.

Now it’s Sir Keir Starmer’s turn to tread a delicate and potentially hazardous political tightrope as he entertains the latest – and most unconventional – US president.

The greatest dangers for Sir Keir will be a news conference in the afternoon, in the gardens, if the weather permits.

Good luck, as they say, with that.

Before then, there’s the potential for what the Americans call a “pool spray”, one of those impromptu, rambling and unpredictable Q&As we’ve seen so many times in the Oval Office.

For Sir Keir, what could possibly go wrong?

Chequers ’25 could be memorable and notable, like so many previous meetings between a PM and a president. But not necessarily for the right reasons for this UK prime minister.

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Trump100: The King and the Donald

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Trump100: The King and the Donald

The pomp and circumstance. The man who some say wants to be king, meets The King.

Trump and King Charles spend the day together. We digest what’s happened, why it’s happened, and what it all means.
You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

Email us on trump100@sky.uk with your comments and questions.

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