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The UK’s jobless rate may have been much lower than estimates suggested at the end of last year, according to data that could bolster pressure on the Bank of England to hold off on interest rate cuts.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said new experimental results from its Labour Force Survey, which is used to determine the official unemployment rate, showed a rate of 3.9% for the three months to November.

It had previously been measured at 4.2%.

The update, which was based on new population estimates, continued to come with a big health warning as ONS number-crunchers move to bolster the quality of the data.

It expected that work to be completed by September.

The survey, which has suffered from low participation rates since the pandemic, is also used to determine other figures such as wage increases – also crucial pieces of information for the Bank of England in the current economic environment.

Policymakers in Threadneedle Street are currently weighing the timing of interest rate cuts following progress in the battle against inflation.

Financial markets currently expect borrowing costs to start to fall back from May.

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Fresh hopes for the UK economy?

While a lower unemployment rate is good news on the face of it, it will only fuel worries among rate-setters at the Bank of about inflationary risks ahead.

The Bank is anxious to limit demand in the economy – helping to keep a lid on the pace of price growth.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the outlook for employment was weaker than the ONS figures indicated.

“More recent evidence suggests that unemployment has begun to rise at a faster pace,” he wrote.

“For instance, the number of redundancy notifications received by the Insolvency Service in the four weeks to January 21 was 17% higher than in the same period a year ago.

“In addition, our seasonally adjusted measure of the number of Google searches for phrases including “redundancy”-a good leading indicator for the official measure of layoffs-exceeded its average level in the second average by 24% in January and its 2015-to-19 average by 28%.

“Accordingly, we still think that the MPC likely will reduce Bank Rate to 4.50% by the end of this year, from 5.25%, with the first step down coming in May, though the risks that the initial cut comes later are rising.”

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Thousands of jobs to go at Bosch in latest blow to German car industry

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Thousands of jobs to go at Bosch in latest blow to German car industry

Bosch will cut up to 5,500 jobs as it struggles with slow electric vehicle sales and competition from Chinese imports.

It is the latest blow to the European car industry after Volkswagen and Ford announced thousands of job cuts in the last month.

Cheaper Chinese-made electric cars have made it trickier for European manufacturers to remain competitive while demand has weakened for the driver assistance and automated driving solutions made by Bosch.

The company said a slower-than-expected transition to electric, software-controlled vehicles was partly behind the cuts, which are being made in the car parts division.

Demand for new cars has fallen overall in Germany as the economy has slowed, with recession only narrowly avoided in recent years.

The final number of job cuts has yet to be agreed with employee representatives. Bosch said they would be carried out in a “socially responsible” way.

About half the job reductions would be at locations in Germany.

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Bosch, the world’s biggest car parts supplier, has already committed to not making layoffs in Germany until 2027 for many employees, and until 2029 for a subsection of its workforce. It said this pact would remain in place.

The job cuts would be made over approximately the next eight years.

The Gerlingen site near Stuttgart will lose some 3,500 jobs by the end of 2027, reducing the workforce developing car software, advanced driver assistance and automated driving technology.

Other losses will be at the Hildesheim site near Hanover, where 750 jobs will go by end the of 2032, and the plant in Schwaebisch Gmund, which will lose about 1,300 roles between 2027 and 2030.

Bosch’s decision follows Volkswagen’s announcement last month it would shut at least three factories in Germany and lay off tens of thousands of staff.

Its remaining German plants are also set to be downsized.

While Germany has been hit hard by cuts, it is not bearing the brunt alone.

Earlier this week, Ford announced plans to cut 4,000 jobs across Europe – including 800 in the UK – as the industry fretted over weak electric vehicle (EV) sales that could see firms fined more for missing government targets.

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Cambridge college puts O2 arena lease up for sale

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Cambridge college puts O2 arena lease up for sale

Cambridge University’s wealthiest college is putting the long-term lease of London’s O2 arena up for sale.

Sky News has learnt that Trinity College has instructed property advisers to begin sounding out prospective investors about a deal.

Trinity, which ranks among Britain’s biggest landowners, acquired the site in 2009 for a reported £24m.

The O2, which shrugged off its ‘white elephant’ status in the aftermath of its disastrous debut in 2000, has since become one of the world’s leading entertainment venues.

Operated by Anschutz Entertainment Group, it has played host to a wide array of music, theatrical and sporting events over nearly a quarter of a century.

The opportunity to acquire the 999-year lease is likely to appeal to long-term income investment funds, with real estate funds saying they expected it to fetch tens of millions of pounds.

Trinity College bought the lease from Lend Lease and Quintain, the property companies which had taken control of the Millennium Dome site in 2002 for nothing.

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The college was founded by Henry VIII in 1546 and has amassed a vast property portfolio.

It was unclear on Friday why it had decided to call in advisers at this point to undertake a sale process.

Trinity College Cambridge did not respond to two requests for comment.

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Surprise fall in retail sales a sign economy is slowing

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Surprise fall in retail sales a sign economy is slowing

Budget fears and unseasonably warm weather led to consumers spending far less than expected last month, according to official figures.

In a sign of a slowing economy, retail sales fell a sharp 0.7%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The fall was larger than expected. A drop of 0.3% was forecasted by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.

Money blog: Energy bills to rise in January

Clothing stores were particularly affected, where sales fell by 3.1% over the month as October temperatures remained high, putting shoppers off winter purchases.

Retailers across the board, however, reported consumers held back on spending ahead of the budget, the ONS added.

Just a month earlier, in September, spending rose by 0.1%.

Despite the October fall, the ONS pointed out that the trend is for sales increases on a yearly and three-monthly basis and for them to be lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Retail sales figures are significant as household consumption measured by the data is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

The data can also help track how consumers feel about their financial position and the economy more broadly.

Another signal of a slowing economy was the latest growth figures which showed a smaller-than-expected GDP (gross domestic product) measurement.

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Business owners worried after budget

Consumer confidence could be bouncing back

Also released on Friday was news of a rise in consumer confidence in the weeks following the budget and the US election.

Market research company GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index “jumped” in November, the company said, as people intended to make Black Friday purchases.

It noted that inflation has yet to be tamed with people still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures.

It will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of change, it added.

A quirk in the figures

Economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the dates included in the ONS’s retail sales figures could have distorted the headline figure.

The half-term break, during which spending typically increases, was excluded from the monthly statistics as the cut-off point was 26 October.

With cold weather gripping the UK this week clothing sales are likely to rise as delayed winter clothing purchases are made, Pantheon added.

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