The logo of semiconductor design firm Arm on a chip.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Exactly two years ago, Nvidia’s attempt to purchase chip designer Arm from SoftBank came to an end due to “significant regulatory challenges.”
Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s billionaire founder, has never been so lucky.
That agreement would have involved selling Arm for $40 billion, or just $8 billion more than SoftBank paid in 2016. Instead, Arm went public last year, and the company is now worth over $116 billion after the stock soared 48% on Thursday.
SoftBank still owns roughly 90% of the outstanding stock, meaning its stake in Arm increased by over $34 billion in a day.
But the rally is somewhat confounding when looking at how the market values Arm. Wall Street may start to get a clearer sense of how much investors are willing to pay next month, when the 180-day lockup period expires and SoftBank will have its first opportunity to sell.
Chipmakers Nvidia and AMD have been Wall Street darlings of late due to their central position in the artificial intelligence boom. Nvidia makes the bulk of the processors used for cutting-edge AI models like those that power ChatGPT, while large tech companies have also indicated their interest in purchasing competitive chips from AMD as they hit the market.
But Arm is now being valued at a much higher earnings multiple than either of those companies. As of Thursday’s close, investors are valuing Arm at close to 90 times forward earnings. That compares to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33 for Nvidia and 46 for AMD, which both have significantly higher multiples than other major chip stocks like Intel and Qualcomm.
In reporting better-than-expected quarterly results on Wednesday, Arm gave investors some new data to suggest that its growth rate could persist through the next fiscal year. Arm said it was breaking into new markets thanks to AI demand, and that its primary market, smartphone technology, was recovering from a slump.
‘Gain market share’
Arm has a different business model than Nvidia and AMD in that it’s largely a technology licensing company. Arm said its royalties business, in which billions of chips manufactured each quarter result in a small fee to use the company’s architecture, was surprisingly strong. That’s because it can charge twice as much for its latest instruction set, called Arm v9, which accounted for 15% of the company’s royalties.
“Arm continues to gain market share in the growth markets of cloud servers and automotive which drive new streams of royalty growth,” the company said in its investor letter.
Arm’s revenue forecast for the current quarter points to 38% annual growth at the midpoint of the range, marking a significant acceleration from recent periods. But for Nvidia, analysts are expecting growth of over 200% for the January quarter and almost that level the next period.
AMD has been growing much slower and is expected to remain in the single digits until the back half of the year, when expansion is expected to accelerate.
Lisa Su, president and CEO of AMD, talks about the AMD EPYC processor during a keynote address at the 2019 CES in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., January 9, 2019.
Steve Marcus | Reuters
While Arm has some AI chip development, its technology is oriented around the central processor, or CPU. AI chips are often graphics processors, or GPUs, which use a different approach to running multiple calculations at the same time.
Still, Arm says it stands to benefit from AI chips. CEO Rene Hass mentioned Nvidia’s Grace Hopper 200 chip, which will start shipping in finished systems in April, on a call with analysts. That chip combines one of Nvidia’s GPUs — an H100 — with a CPU that uses Arm’s Neoverse design.
“The drivers and direction of travel for Arm are as outlined at the time of its IPO, but the timing and slope is sooner and steeper due to AI.” wrote Citi analyst Andrew Gardiner in a note on Thursday. “Given we are in the very early innings of AI adoption, we expect Arm’s sales trends to remain robust into FY25/26.”
The company said that its backlog of expected licensing sales rose 42% on an annual basis to $2.4 billion.
For Son and SoftBank, the fortuitous scuttling of the Nvidia-Arm deal means an opportunity for the Japanese conglomerate to directly benefit from the growth in AI and the premium that Wall Street is placing on chip companies at the center of the action.
SoftBank on Thursday said its Vision Fund investment group logged a $4 billion gain in the latest quarter, after a brutal stretch of losses from bad bets like WeWork. SoftBank said in the December quarter that it booked an investment gain of $5.5 billion thanks to the Arm IPO.
If the stock can hold at these levels or even keep going up, more gains are in store.
“Arm is the biggest contributor to the global AI evolution,” SoftBank finance chief Yoshimitsu Goto said during an earnings presentation on Thursday. He even went so far as to call SoftBank’s investment pool an “AI-centric portfolio.”
Waymo driverless taxi parks in lower Manhattan in New York City, U.S., Nov. 26, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Waymo, the robotaxi unit owned by Alphabet, has crossed 450,000 weekly paid rides, according to a letter from investor Tiger Global viewed by CNBC.
That’s almost double the milestone it hit in April, when Waymo reported 250,000 paid robotaxi rides a week in the U.S.
“Waymo is the clear leader in autonomous driving, recently surpassing 450k trips per week with a product that is 10x safer than human drivers,” Tiger Global wrote in a letter to investors announcing the launch of a new fund.
Tiger’s 450,000-ride estimate is based on publicly available data. Waymo is one of the largest positions in Tiger’s 2024 fund.
Waymo declined to comment.
This year, Waymo has also announced a slew of expansions, including its debut on freeways in three cities, and autonomous driving in cities including Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando.
The latest milestone is also another sign that Waymo is continuing to push ahead of aspiring self-driving competitor Tesla, which has run limited pilots in Austin and operates a ride-hailing service in the Bay Area.
Tesla vehicles include human drivers or safety supervisors on board and are not driverless like Waymo’s fleet vehicles.
According to Tesla’s latest earnings call, executives said the company hit a quarter of a million miles with its fleet in Austin, and more than one million in the Bay Area. In July, Waymo announced 100 million total fully autonomous miles.
Johny Srouji, senior vice president of hardware technologies at Apple Inc., speaks during the Peek Performance virtual event in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, March 8, 2022.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Apple chip leader Johny Srouji addressed rumors of his impending exit in a memo to staff on Monday, saying he doesn’t plan on leaving the company anytime soon.
“I love my team, and I love my job at Apple, and I don’t plan on leaving anytime soon,” he wrote.
Bloomberg reported on Saturday that Srouji had told CEO Tim Cook that he was considering leaving, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
Srouji is seen as one of the most important executives at the company and he’s been in charge of the company’s hardware technologies team that includes chip development. At Apple since 2008, he has led teams that created the M-series chips used in Macs and the A-series chips at the heart of iPhones.
The memo confirming that he plans to stay at Apple comes as the company has seen several high-profile executive exits in the past weeks, raising questions about the stability of Apple’s top leadership.
In addition to developing the chips that enabled Apple to drop Intel from its laptops and desktops, in recent years Srouji’s teams have developed a cellular modem that will replace Qualcomm’s modems in most iPhones.
Srouji frequently presents at Apple product launches.
“I know you’ve been reading all kind of rumors and speculations about my future at Apple, and I feel that you need to hear from me directly,” Srouji wrote in the memo. “I am proud of the amazing Technologies we all build across Displays, Cameras, Sensors, Silicon, Batteries, and a very wide set of technologies, across all of Apple Products.”
Last week, Apple announced that its head of artificial intelligence, John Giannandrea, was stepping down.
Two days later, the company announced the departure of Alan Dye, the head of user interface design. Dye, who was behind the “Liquid Glass” redesign, is joining Meta.
A day after Dye’s departure, Apple announced the retirement of general counsel Kate Adams and vice president for environment, policy, and social initiatives Lisa Jackson. Both Adams and Jackson reported directly to Cook.
Tiger Global Management announced Monday the launch of its latest venture capital fund, Private Investment Partners 17, according to a letter to investors viewed by CNBC.
Tiger is targeting a raise of $2.2 billion for the fund, according to a person familiar with the firm’s strategy who declined to be named in order to discuss internal matters.
The hedge fund wrote that it’s expecting PIP 17 to be similar in “strategy, size and construction” to its earliest vintages and its most recent, PIP 16, which targeted $6 billion but ultimately closed at $2.2 billion.
The largest positions in PIP 16 are OpenAI and Waymo, stakes that have helped performance rebound. In a call with investors, Tiger said that PIP 16 is up 33% year-to-date, while PIP 15 is up 16%.
Compared to the megafunds of the early 2020s, the latest raise target signals a pivot to a more disciplined strategy for Tiger Global.
The firm was one of the biggest forces in the startup ecosystem over the last half-decade, but has seen heavy markdowns and slower deployment in the last few years.
In 2021, the heyday of its “spray and pray” approach, it led 212 rounds, according to Crunchbase data. This year, it made just nine new private investments.
Tiger first invested in OpenAI in 2021 at a valuation of less than $16 billion and in Waymo that same year at $39 billion.
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The Tiger Global letter and audio of the investor call obtained by CNBC also signal some concerns about the potential for a bubble in artificial intelligence.
“[V]aluations are elevated, and, in our view, at times unsupported by company fundamentals,” the firm wrote in the letter. “We also recognize the importance of approaching a technological shift of this magnitude with some humility.”
The strategy that founder Chase Coleman laid out is to prune aggressively and reinforce its biggest winners.
Tiger says it has sold more than 85 companies from PIP 15, generating over $1 billion in proceeds.
That money can now be recycled into follow-in investments for companies it considers winners.
Some of the names Tiger said it would concentrate on include Revolut, a digital banking startup, and ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok.
Other companies Tiger is focusing on include police tech company Flock Safety, EV company Harbinger, e-commerce startup Rokt, freight company Cargomatic, and stablecoin startup BVNK, the investor presentation showed.