Arm’s post-earnings pop leaves stock trading at over 100% premium to Nvidia
The logo of semiconductor design firm Arm on a chip.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Exactly two years ago, Nvidia’s attempt to purchase chip designer Arm from SoftBank came to an end due to “significant regulatory challenges.”
Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s billionaire founder, has never been so lucky.
That agreement would have involved selling Arm for $40 billion, or just $8 billion more than SoftBank paid in 2016. Instead, Arm went public last year, and the company is now worth over $116 billion after the stock soared 48% on Thursday.
SoftBank still owns roughly 90% of the outstanding stock, meaning its stake in Arm increased by over $34 billion in a day.
But the rally is somewhat confounding when looking at how the market values Arm. Wall Street may start to get a clearer sense of how much investors are willing to pay next month, when the 180-day lockup period expires and SoftBank will have its first opportunity to sell.
Chipmakers Nvidia and AMD have been Wall Street darlings of late due to their central position in the artificial intelligence boom. Nvidia makes the bulk of the processors used for cutting-edge AI models like those that power ChatGPT, while large tech companies have also indicated their interest in purchasing competitive chips from AMD as they hit the market.
But Arm is now being valued at a much higher earnings multiple than either of those companies. As of Thursday’s close, investors are valuing Arm at close to 90 times forward earnings. That compares to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33 for Nvidia and 46 for AMD, which both have significantly higher multiples than other major chip stocks like Intel and Qualcomm.
In reporting better-than-expected quarterly results on Wednesday, Arm gave investors some new data to suggest that its growth rate could persist through the next fiscal year. Arm said it was breaking into new markets thanks to AI demand, and that its primary market, smartphone technology, was recovering from a slump.
‘Gain market share’
Arm has a different business model than Nvidia and AMD in that it’s largely a technology licensing company. Arm said its royalties business, in which billions of chips manufactured each quarter result in a small fee to use the company’s architecture, was surprisingly strong. That’s because it can charge twice as much for its latest instruction set, called Arm v9, which accounted for 15% of the company’s royalties.
“Arm continues to gain market share in the growth markets of cloud servers and automotive which drive new streams of royalty growth,” the company said in its investor letter.
Arm’s revenue forecast for the current quarter points to 38% annual growth at the midpoint of the range, marking a significant acceleration from recent periods. But for Nvidia, analysts are expecting growth of over 200% for the January quarter and almost that level the next period.
AMD has been growing much slower and is expected to remain in the single digits until the back half of the year, when expansion is expected to accelerate.
Lisa Su, president and CEO of AMD, talks about the AMD EPYC processor during a keynote address at the 2019 CES in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., January 9, 2019.
Steve Marcus | Reuters
While Arm has some AI chip development, its technology is oriented around the central processor, or CPU. AI chips are often graphics processors, or GPUs, which use a different approach to running multiple calculations at the same time.
Still, Arm says it stands to benefit from AI chips. CEO Rene Hass mentioned Nvidia’s Grace Hopper 200 chip, which will start shipping in finished systems in April, on a call with analysts. That chip combines one of Nvidia’s GPUs — an H100 — with a CPU that uses Arm’s Neoverse design.
“The drivers and direction of travel for Arm are as outlined at the time of its IPO, but the timing and slope is sooner and steeper due to AI.” wrote Citi analyst Andrew Gardiner in a note on Thursday. “Given we are in the very early innings of AI adoption, we expect Arm’s sales trends to remain robust into FY25/26.”
The company said that its backlog of expected licensing sales rose 42% on an annual basis to $2.4 billion.
For Son and SoftBank, the fortuitous scuttling of the Nvidia-Arm deal means an opportunity for the Japanese conglomerate to directly benefit from the growth in AI and the premium that Wall Street is placing on chip companies at the center of the action.
SoftBank on Thursday said its Vision Fund investment group logged a $4 billion gain in the latest quarter, after a brutal stretch of losses from bad bets like WeWork. SoftBank said in the December quarter that it booked an investment gain of $5.5 billion thanks to the Arm IPO.
If the stock can hold at these levels or even keep going up, more gains are in store.
“Arm is the biggest contributor to the global AI evolution,” SoftBank finance chief Yoshimitsu Goto said during an earnings presentation on Thursday. He even went so far as to call SoftBank’s investment pool an “AI-centric portfolio.”
— CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal contributed to this report
A Waymo self-driving car, seen with a driver, stops at a red light outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Friday, March 31, 2025.
Bill Clark | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Alphabet-owned Waymo and Toyota on Tuesday announced a preliminary partnership to explore bringing robotaxi tech to personally-owned vehicles.
“The companies will explore how to leverage Waymo’s autonomous technology and Toyota’s vehicle expertise to enhance next-generation personally owned vehicles,” the two companies announced.
The companies said they aim to use the partnership to more quickly develop driver assistance and autonomous vehicle technologies for personal vehicles. Toyota is the world’s largest automaker by sales.
Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said the strategic partnership could also result in the Google-owned company incorporating Toyota’s “vehicles into our ride-hailing fleet.”
The Toyota tie-up is the latest automotive partnership for Waymo.
The self-driving company has previously worked with automakers such as Jaguar Land Rover, Stellantis predecessor Fiat Chrysler, Daimler Trucks, Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler, Hyundai Motor and China’s Geely Zeekr. The partnerships, many of which touted long-term tie-ups, largely resulted in automakers producing modified vehicles for testing or for Waymo to use in its fleets.
The partnership with Toyota will not affect Waymo’s plans to deploy Hyundai and Zeekr vehicles through the Waymo One service in the future, a spokesman for the Alphabet-owned company told CNBC.
Waymo is now serving 250,000 paid rides per week, up from 200,000 in February, before Waymo opened in Austin and expanded in the San Francisco Bay Area in March. Waymo is already running its commercial, driverless ride-hailing services in the San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Austin regions.
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai noted in first-quarter earnings last week that Waymo has not entirely defined its long-term business model, and there is “future optionality around personal ownership” of vehicles equipped with Waymo’s self-driving technology.
Waymo and Toyota are not the only companies turning their focus to personally-owned autonomous vehicles. When GM announced in December that it was abandoning its Cruise robotaxi business, the company said it would instead focus on the development of autonomous systems for use in personal vehicles.
Toyota previously invested in and partnered with Tesla, Elon Musk’s automaker which now aims to compete with Waymo on driverless tech. Toyota sold the its stake in the EV maker in June 2017.
Tesla, once seen as a pioneer in self-driving tech, does not yet produce cars that are safe to use without a human driver at the wheel, ready to steer or brake at any time.
Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, criticized Waymo on a recent earnings call claiming the robotaxis are too expensive for mass-production. Musk also promised Tesla will be “selling fully autonomous rides in June in Austin,” using Model Y vehicles with a new “unsupervised” version of the company’s “Full Self-Driving” or FSD systems installed.
— CNBC reporter Michael Wayland contributed to this report.
Super Micro Computer CEO Charles Liang at the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 5, 2024.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro shares fell as much as 19% on Tuesday after the server maker announced preliminary results for the fiscal third quarter that were lower than analysts had projected.
Here’s how the company’s preliminary numbers compare with the LSEG consensus:
- Earnings per share: 29 to 31 cents per share adjusted vs. 54 cents expected
- Revenue: $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion vs. $5.50 billion expected
Super Micro lowered the ranges from earlier guidance for the quarter, which ended on March 31, according to a statement. The new revenue range implies 18% growth year over year. That’s a large step down from the 200% growth Super Micro delivered a year ago.
“During Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4,” the company said in the statement. In addition, the company faced higher inventories from older products, as well as expedite fees. The two factors narrowed Super Micro’s preliminary gross margin by 220 points from the prior quarter.
Shares of server competitor Dell were down almost 5% in after-hours trading, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise was down about 2%. Nvidia shares also fell roughly 2%.
Super Micro shares over the past year.
The pre-announcement is the latest blow for Super Micro, which has been mired in controversy for the past year due to delayed financial filings and troubling reports from short sellers. In February, the company filed its financials for its fiscal 2024 year and the first two quarters of fiscal 2025 just in time to meet Nasdaq’s deadline to stay listed. Last year, after Super Micro delayed its annual report, it lost its auditor, Ernst & Young, citing governance issues.
After more than tripling in 2023, thanks to the company’s position in the AI boom and its sales of servers packed with Nvidia’s processors, Super Micro shares plummeted in the second third and fourth quarters last year, wiping out more than 80% of its market cap.
“We have confidence that our calendar year 2025 growth could be a repeat of calendar year 2023, if not better, assuming the supply chain can keep pace with demand,” Charles Liang, Super Micro’s CEO, told analysts on a conference call in February.
Prior to Tuesday’s announcement, the stock was up 18% in 2025, rallying as the broader tech market was in decline.
Super Micro will go over the results with analysts on a conference call at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 6.
— CNBC’s Ari Levy contributed to this report.
Snap CEO Evan Spiegel speaks during the Semafor World Economy Summit 2025 at Conrad Washington in Washington, D.C., on April 23, 2025.
Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images
Snap reported better-than-expected first-quarter revenue Tuesday but declined to provide guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainties that could weigh on advertising demand.
Shares dropped 13% in after-hours trading.
Here is how the company did compared with Wall Street’s expectations:
- Earnings per share: Loss of 8 cents. That figure is not comparable to analysts’ estimates.
- Revenue: $1.36 billion vs. $1.35 billion expected, according to LSEG
- Global daily active users: 460 million vs. 459 million expected, according to StreetAccount
- Global average revenue per user: $2.96 vs. $2.93 expected, according to StreetAccount
Snap did not offer an outlook for the second quarter, citing uncertainties surrounding “how macro economic conditions may evolve in the months ahead, and how this may impact advertising demand more broadly.”
Analysts had expected $1.39 billion in second-quarter revenue guidance. The company said it expects daily active users to come in near the midpoint of its second-quarter range at 468 million.
“While our topline revenue has continued to grow, we have experienced headwinds to start the current quarter, and we believe it is prudent to continue to balance our level of investment with realized revenue growth,” the company said in a letter to investors.
Like many tech companies, Snap is facing a turbulent macro setup as it grapples with President Donald Trump’s evolving trade plans. Many fear that global trade uncertainty might lead companies to lower guidance or pull back spending this earnings season.
Snap’s cited potential constraints on advertising demand as the reason for holding off on guidance. Ad revenues for the period rose 9% year over year to $1.21 billion. That growth came mainly from direct response advertising. The company also said that brand-oriented advertising revenue dipped 3% from a year ago.
The company isn’t alone. Last Thursday, Alphabet reported first-quarter sales of $90.23 billion, which surpassed Wall Street expectations, but executives told analysts that the company may experience headwinds to its online ad business in the Asia-Pacific region.
Snap lowered its full-year adjusted operating expenses range to between $2.65 billion and $2.70 billion, down from $2.70 billion to $2.75 billion. The company also revised its full-year cost guidance for stock based compensation downward to between $1.13 billion and $1.16 billion from $1.15 billion to $1.20 billion.
Sales in Snap’s first quarter jumped 14% to $1.36 billion from $1.19 billion in the year-ago period. The company reported a net loss of about $140 million, or 8 cents per share. That narrowed 54% from about $305 million, or 19 cents, in the year-ago period. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $108 million, topping a $64 million estimate from StreetAccount.
The company attributed the 8 cents loss to a $70.1 million charge related to cash severance, stock-based compensation expenses and other costs associated with a 2024 restructuring. “These charges are not reflective of underlying trends in our business,” the company said.
Snap posted 460 million daily active users during the period, up from 453 million the previous quarter. The company also said that it reached 900 million monthly active users, up from 850 million in August, the last time Snap provided that stat.
Meta reports its latest earnings on Wednesday, followed by Reddit on Thursday and Pinterest on May 8.
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