A referendum on unifying the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will happen within the next six years, according to the president of Sinn Fein.
Mary Lou McDonald was speaking to Sky News following the restoration of the Northern Ireland executive, where her party – a nationalist group – is now the largest caucus in Belfast for the first time since the Good Friday Agreement came into effect.
She said: “What I firmly believe is – in this decade – we will have those referendums, and it’s my job and the job of people like me who believe in reunification to convince, to win hearts and minds and to convince people of that opportunity – part of which, by the way, will be really consolidating our relationship with Britain as our next door neighbour and good friend.”
Asked if she meant before 2030, Ms McDonald said “yes”.
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Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, there is a pathway for a reunification poll to be held in Northern Ireland.
The legislation states that “if at any time it appears likely” that a “majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, then the Northern Ireland secretary will order a vote.
How the majority would be demonstrated is less clear.
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According to the Institute For Government, there is no parallel mechanism in the Good Friday Agreement for a referendum in the Republic of Ireland, where Ms McDonald is a politician.
But it sets out that at least two referendums would need to be held – one on the principle of reunification, and then one to amend the constitution if Northern Ireland agrees to join the Republic of Ireland following negotiations.
When it comes to the question of referendums, it’s worth considering alongside the most recent polling.
A decisive 64% of people in the Republic of Ireland are in favour of Irish unity.
In Northern Ireland, it’s not so clear-cut – only 30% in favour, 50% against and 20% undecided.
But there are two key factors – the most recent Ipsos poll in the Irish Times last December suggested the number of unionists in Northern Ireland who say they would not be able to accept Irish unity has fallen from 32% to 23%. That’s very significant.
And then – believe it or not – 60% of people in Northern Ireland, unionist and nationalist, believe there should be a referendum in the next ten years.
So we think what Mary Lou McDonald is predicting is fairly realistic – that a vote will take place in the next decade.
What is less predictable is what the outcome of that vote will be.
Asked about her previous comments that unity is within touching distance, the Sinn Feinpresident said she was talking in “historic terms”.
“I don’t mean that it’s happening next week or next month,” she added.
Speaking about her prediction for the next six years, Ms McDonald said: “Yes and let me say that is not so far away – so there’s an awful lot of work that needs to be done.
“I’ve said consistently to the government in Dublin that they really need to take possession of this conversation that’s now under way right across Ireland.
“They need to give it a structure and a place and of course it has to be inclusive – we want to hear from every voice, including those for whom reunification would not be their first option – those who go out and campaign for the union.”
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Sunak downplays Irish referendum
But Ms McDonald added: “Nevertheless, we all live together, that’s never going to change. We share Ireland.
“We love Ireland, and we want what’s best for our children, for our grandchildren. I think that’s the strongest, most powerful common ground that we all share.”
Emmanuel Macron has said the UK and France have a “shared responsibility” to tackle the “burden” of illegal migration, as he urged co-operation between London and Paris ahead of a crunch summit later this week.
Addressing parliament in the Palace of Westminster on Tuesday, the French president said the UK-France summit would bring “cooperation and tangible results” regarding the small boats crisis in the Channel.
Image: King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
Mr Macron – who is the first European leader to make a state visit to the UK since Brexit – told the audience that while migrants’ “hope for a better life elsewhere is legitimate”, “we cannot allow our countries’ rules for taking in people to be flouted and criminal networks to cynically exploit the hopes of so many individuals with so little respect for human life”.
“France and the UK have a shared responsibility to address irregular migration with humanity, solidarity and fairness,” he added.
Looking ahead to the UK-France summit on Thursday, he promised the “best ever cooperation” between France and the UK “to fix today what is a burden for our two countries”.
Sir Keir Starmer will hope to reach a deal with his French counterpart on a “one in, one out” migrant returns deal at the key summit on Thursday.
King Charles also addressed the delegations at a state banquet in Windsor Castle on Tuesday evening, saying the summit would “deepen our alliance and broaden our partnerships still further”.
Image: King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.
Sitting next to President Macron, the monarch said: “Our armed forces will cooperate even more closely across the world, including to support Ukraine as we join together in leading a coalition of the willing in defence of liberty and freedom from oppression. In other words, in defence of our shared values.”
In April, British officials confirmed a pilot scheme was being considered to deport migrants who cross the English Channel in exchange for the UK accepting asylum seekers in France with legitimate claims.
The two countries have engaged in talks about a one-for-one swap, enabling undocumented asylum seekers who have reached the UK by small boat to be returned to France.
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Britain would then receive migrants from France who would have a right to be in the UK, like those who already have family settled here.
The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.
Image: President Macron greets Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle at his address to parliament in Westminster.
Elsewhere in his speech, the French president addressed Brexit, and said the UK could not “stay on the sidelines” despite its departure from the European Union.
He said European countries had to break away from economic dependence on the US and China.
“Our two countries are among the oldest sovereign nations in Europe, and sovereignty means a lot to both of us, and everything I referred to was about sovereignty, deciding for ourselves, choosing our technologies, our economy, deciding our diplomacy, and deciding the content we want to share and the ideas we want to share, and the controversies we want to share.
“Even though it is not part of the European Union, the United Kingdom cannot stay on the sidelines because defence and security, competitiveness, democracy – the very core of our identity – are connected across Europe as a continent.”