A referendum on unifying the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will happen within the next six years, according to the president of Sinn Fein.
Mary Lou McDonald was speaking to Sky News following the restoration of the Northern Ireland executive, where her party – a nationalist group – is now the largest caucus in Belfast for the first time since the Good Friday Agreement came into effect.
She said: “What I firmly believe is – in this decade – we will have those referendums, and it’s my job and the job of people like me who believe in reunification to convince, to win hearts and minds and to convince people of that opportunity – part of which, by the way, will be really consolidating our relationship with Britain as our next door neighbour and good friend.”
Asked if she meant before 2030, Ms McDonald said “yes”.
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Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, there is a pathway for a reunification poll to be held in Northern Ireland.
The legislation states that “if at any time it appears likely” that a “majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, then the Northern Ireland secretary will order a vote.
How the majority would be demonstrated is less clear.
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According to the Institute For Government, there is no parallel mechanism in the Good Friday Agreement for a referendum in the Republic of Ireland, where Ms McDonald is a politician.
But it sets out that at least two referendums would need to be held – one on the principle of reunification, and then one to amend the constitution if Northern Ireland agrees to join the Republic of Ireland following negotiations.
When it comes to the question of referendums, it’s worth considering alongside the most recent polling.
A decisive 64% of people in the Republic of Ireland are in favour of Irish unity.
In Northern Ireland, it’s not so clear-cut – only 30% in favour, 50% against and 20% undecided.
But there are two key factors – the most recent Ipsos poll in the Irish Times last December suggested the number of unionists in Northern Ireland who say they would not be able to accept Irish unity has fallen from 32% to 23%. That’s very significant.
And then – believe it or not – 60% of people in Northern Ireland, unionist and nationalist, believe there should be a referendum in the next ten years.
So we think what Mary Lou McDonald is predicting is fairly realistic – that a vote will take place in the next decade.
What is less predictable is what the outcome of that vote will be.
Asked about her previous comments that unity is within touching distance, the Sinn Feinpresident said she was talking in “historic terms”.
“I don’t mean that it’s happening next week or next month,” she added.
Speaking about her prediction for the next six years, Ms McDonald said: “Yes and let me say that is not so far away – so there’s an awful lot of work that needs to be done.
“I’ve said consistently to the government in Dublin that they really need to take possession of this conversation that’s now under way right across Ireland.
“They need to give it a structure and a place and of course it has to be inclusive – we want to hear from every voice, including those for whom reunification would not be their first option – those who go out and campaign for the union.”
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Sunak downplays Irish referendum
But Ms McDonald added: “Nevertheless, we all live together, that’s never going to change. We share Ireland.
“We love Ireland, and we want what’s best for our children, for our grandchildren. I think that’s the strongest, most powerful common ground that we all share.”
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The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.
The US president told reporters: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”
As Mr Trump and his British counterpart exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, the US president held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.
Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Mr Starmer quickly bent down to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”
Image: President Donald Trump drops papers as he meets with Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Kananaskis, Canada. Pic: AP
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Sir Keir Starmer hastily collects the signed executive order documents from the ground and hands them back to the US president.
Sir Keirsaid the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, adding: “So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength.”
Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.
However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters
What exactly does trade deal being ‘done’ mean?
The government says the US “has committed” to removing tariffs (taxes on imported goods) on UK aerospace goods, such as engines and aircraft parts, which currently stand at 10%.
That is “expected to come into force by the end of the month”.
Tariffs on car imports will drop from 27.5% to 10%, the government says, which “saves car manufacturers hundreds of millions a year, and protects tens of thousands of jobs”.
The White House says there will be a quota of 100,000 cars eligible for import at that level each year.
But on steel, the story is a little more complicated.
The UK is the only country exempted from the global 50% tariff rate on steel – which means the UK rate remains at the original level of 25%.
That tariff was expected to be lifted entirely, but the government now says it will “continue to go further and make progress towards 0% tariffs on core steel products as agreed”.
The White House says the US will “promptly construct a quota at most-favoured-nation rates for steel and aluminium articles”.
Other key parts of the deal include import and export quotas for beef – and the government is keen to emphasise that “any US imports will need to meet UK food safety standards”.
There is no change to tariffs on pharmaceuticals for the moment, and the government says “work will continue to protect industry from any further tariffs imposed”.
The White House says they “committed to negotiate significantly preferential treatment outcomes”.
Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”
He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.
“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”
Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.
The US president appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.
In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.
Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.
A small group have gathered in the main square in the centre of Birmingham, and it’s a real mix of people. There are older figures from the community, young students, as well as groups of friends and some families.
On closer inspection, you can make out candles and rosary beads, signalling it’s some kind of vigil. As hymns start to be sung, it’s revealed to be a gathering to protest against abortion.
Nearly 90% of this country is pro-choice, but a small, vocal minority is becoming more organised in the UK.
Energised by the Trump administration, young and old activists in the UK anti-abortion movement have become more motivated to get their message across.
And all this is happening just as abortion laws in the UK could be about to go through the most significant change in over 50 years.
Image: Pro-choice campaigners (left) at London’s High Court in July 2023 and a pro-life demonstration (right) outside parliament in May 2024. Pic: Reuters/PA
Nearly three years on from the ruling reversing Roe v Wade – a landmark case that once made abortion legal in the US – the age-old abortion debate has become even more political in the UK.
A breakthrough moment came when Vice President JD Vance criticised the UK laws on abortion buffer zones – areas outside clinics where police are allowed to use their discretion to stop anyone harassing women entering abortion clinics.
One of the cases cited by the vice president was that of Isabel Vaughan-Spruce.
She’s a lifelong anti-abortion activist who has been handing out leaflets outside clinics for 20 years. Since buffer zones came into force, she now visits to silently pray once a week. In 2022, she was arrested outside an abortion clinic for silent prayer and taken to court, although the charges were later dropped.
She also received £13,000 in a civil claim against West Midlands Police, which did not admit liability.
“They actually asked me what I was doing, and I said, well, I’m just physically standing here. I might be praying in my head, but nothing out loud. And on that basis, they made an arrest. I was heavily searched, I was taken to the police station, locked in a police cell for hours before being questioned under caution. And then, eventually, I went to court.
“I believe that abortion centres are like the modern-day Calvary. This is where the innocent are being put to death. I might not be physically interacting with anybody or stopping anyone or talking to anyone, just to be there in prayer is really, really important from a spiritual perspective.”
Image: Isabel Vaughan-Spruce, an anti-abortion activist, was arrested by police near an abortion clinic, although charges were later dropped
For people like Ailish McEntee, any type of protest is a distraction, which she says is not wanted by the women who come to the clinic she works at in London. She’s hoping that this week MPs will go further on abortion laws and pass an amendment through the Commons to decriminalise abortion for anyone seeking an abortion up to 24 weeks.
“The law itself works very well for the majority of people, but for those individuals in those kind of really high-risk domestic abuse situations… they maybe can’t make it to a clinic, they might seek abortion care from those kind of unregulated providers.
“So this amendment would take away that decriminalisation of women themselves. And it’s a really strange part of the law that we have.
“I think particularly in recent years, with Roe v Wade overturning and Donald Trump winning the election again, I think it’s really pushed forward the anti-choice rhetoric that has always been there, but it’s absolutely ramping up.”
Image: Ailish McEntee works at an abortion provider and wants to see a change in the law
According to polling by Sky News and YouGov, 55% of people are in favour of the law changing to stop women being criminalised for their own abortion before 24 weeks.
Surprisingly though, 22% said they believe women should be investigated or imprisoned for abortion after 24 weeks.
Stella Creasy is one of the MPs laying down an amendment to try to decriminalise abortion.
“There’s no other health care provision that we see with a criminal foundation in this way and it has a very real practical consequence.
“We’ve seen some incredibly vulnerable women and girls who didn’t even know that they were pregnant who have late-term miscarriages finding themselves with police officers rather than counsellors at their hospital beds finding themselves under suspicion for months, if not years, and I just don’t think that’s where the British public are at.”
Image: Labour MP, Stella Creasy, hopes her amendment will see abortion decriminalised
But Rachel is concerned by this amendment. She runs sessions at the UK arm of Rachel’s Vineyard – a faith-based organisation originally founded in the United States, dedicated to, in their words, “healing the trauma of abortion”. They frame abortion not as a medical procedure, but as a harm to mothers and fathers.
“With all sudden deaths, whether you are 80 years of age or you’re 26 weeks born, you know, out of the womb, and you’ve died, you’ve sadly died, we need to be able to investigate that. For us to have compassion, we need to have justice.”
Image: Rachel Mackenzie runs sessions at a faith-based organisation and is worried about any reforms to current abortion legislation
She says police searches were a daily routine for her, and since 2019, she has been able to continue helping women navigate abortion care without the threat of being investigated.
Image: Emma Campbell helps women navigate abortion care in Northern Ireland, where decriminalisation was secured in 2019
Orfhlaith Campbell should have been one of the lucky ones. She was able to seek a medical abortion at 23 weeks in Northern Ireland, two years after it had been decriminalised, but she says she had to fight to get the care she needed.
She was on the cusp of the medical time limit when she suffered a premature rupture of membranes, went into labour and was told she would likely develop sepsis.
Image: Orfhlaith Campbell, who had an abortion at 23 weeks in Northern Ireland, says she had to fight to get the care she needed
“I would have died and my daughter was dying, I could feel her dying, and it was a compassionate choice. When we got the post-mortem after, the infection had went into her wee body too, and she had nuclear debris in her lungs. If she had survived at all, it would have been a very, very painful existence.
“So yes, I had to break through the stigma that had been ingrained in me in Northern Ireland. I had to break through legal fights and the barriers that were being put in place. But I was strong enough to know that that was compassionate and that healthcare was needed both for me and her.”
The UK is majority pro-choice, and our polling shows the majority are for decriminalising abortion.
But activists who are against abortion are energised by the changing landscape of the debate in the US.
As parliament sets to vote on two amendments on abortion laws this week and potentially pulls in one direction, activists will likely only get louder and become more effective at getting their message across.