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WASHINGTON (AP) From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers.

The Fed is widely expected to do so this year probably several times. Inflation, as measured by its preferred gauge, rose in the second half of 2023 at an annual rate of about 2%  the Fed’s target level. Yet this week, several central bank officials underscored that they werent ready to pull the trigger just yet.

Why, with inflation nearly conquered and the Fed’s key rate at a 22-year high, isn’t now the time to cut?

Most of the Fed’s policymakers have said they’re optimistic that even as the economy and the job market keep growing, inflation pressures will continue to cool. But they also caution that the economy appears so strong that there’s a real risk that price increases could spike again.

And some are worried that if they cut rates now and inflation re-accelerates, then the Fed could be forced into an about-face and have to raise rates again.

“History tells many stories of inflation head-fakes,” said Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, in a speech Thursday.

Inflation had seemed defeated in 1986, Barkin noted, when Paul Volcker was Fed chair.

The Fed reduced rates, but inflation then escalated again the following year, causing the Fed to reverse course,” he said.

“I would love to avoid that roller-coaster if we can, said, Barkin, who is among 12 Fed officials who vote on interest rate policy this year.

Several officials have said they want more time to see if inflation continues to subside. In the meantime, they note, the economy is solid enough that it can thrive without any rate cuts. Last month, for example, Americas employers delivered a burst of hiring, and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.

Theyre going to be glacial, and take their time, said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. Theyre willing to say, We dont know, but we can afford to wait so were going to wait. “

The sturdiness of the economy has also raised questions about just how effective the Feds 11 rate hikes have been. If higher borrowing rates are only barely restraining the economy, some officials may conclude that high rates should stay in place longer or that few rate cuts will be needed.

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I dont feel theres a sense of urgency here, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, told reporters Tuesday. I think later this year, if things evolve as anticipated, we would be able to start moving the rate down.

Yet their caution carries risks. Right now, the economy appears on track for a soft landing,” in which inflation would be defeated without causing a recession or high unemployment. But the longer that borrowing rates stay high, the higher the risk that many companies and consumers would stop borrowing and spending, weakening the economy and potentially sending it into a recession.

High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates.

The high cost of borrowing has become a headache for David Kelleher’s Chrysler-Jeep dealership just outside of Philadelphia. Just 2 1/2 years ago, Kelleher recalled, his customers could get an auto loan below 3%. Now, they’re lucky to get 5.5%.

Customers who had monthly car lease payments of, say, $400 three years ago are finding that with vehicle prices much higher and interest rates up, their monthly payments would be closer to $650. The trend is pushing many of his customers toward lower-priced used cars or no purchase at all.

We need the government to address the interest rates … and understand that theyve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation,” Kelleher said. If interest rates can come down, I think were going to start selling more cars.

Kelleher is likely to get his wish by May or June, when most economists expect the Fed to start reducing its benchmark rate, which is now at about 5.4%. In December, all but two of the 19 policymakers that participate in the Fed’s policy discussions said they expect the central bank to cut rates this year. (Twelve of those 19 actually get to vote on rate policies each year.)

Yet economic growth has accelerated since then. In the final three months of last year, the economy expanded at an unexpectedly strong 3.3% annual rate. Surveys of manufacturers and service-providers, such as retailers, banks, and shippers, also reported that business perked up last month.

Collectively, the latest reports suggest that the economy may not be headed for a soft landing but rather what some economists call a no landing. By that they mean a scenario in which the economy would remain robust and inflation an ongoing threat, potentially stuck above the Fed’s target. Under this scenario, the Fed would feel compelled to keep rates at elevated levels for an extended period.

Powell said last week that while the Fed wants to see continued strong growth, a strong economy does threaten to send inflation up.

I think that is a risk … that inflation would accelerate, Powell said. I think the greater risk is that it would stabilize at a level meaningfully above 2%. … Thats why we keep our options open here and why were not rushing.”

Other officials this week drove home the point that the Fed is trying to balance the risk of cutting rates too soon which might cause inflation to surge again and keeping rates too high for too long, which could trigger a recession.

At some point, the continued cooling of inflation and labor markets may make it appropriate to reduce rates, Andrea Kugler, a recently appointed Fed governor said Wednesday in her first public speech. On the other hand, if progress on disinflation stalls, it may be appropriate to hold the target range steady at its current level for longer.

Some analysts have pointed to signs that the economy is becoming more productive, or efficient, allowing it grow faster without necessarily increasing inflation. Yet productivity data is notoriously hard to measure, and any meaningful improvement wouldn’t necessarily become apparent for years.

Still, maybe the economy can take higher interest rates than we thought in 2019 before the pandemic, said Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine.

If so, that might not just delay the Fed’s rate cuts, but result in fewer of them. Fed officials are still saying they plan to cut rates perhaps three times this year, below the five or six that some market analysts foresee.

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MLB: Iassogna crew chief, plate umpire for ASG

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MLB: Iassogna crew chief, plate umpire for ASG

NEW YORK — Dan Iassogna will be the umpire crew chief and work the plate during Tuesday night’s All-Star Game at Atlanta’s Truist Park.

His crew will include Marvin Hudson at first, Chris Segal at second, Jansen Visconti at third, Jeremie Rehak in left and Erich Bacchus in right, Major League Baseball said Thursday.

Iassogna, 56, will work his second All-Star Game. He was at third base for the 2011 game at Arizona.

He worked his first big league game in 1999, was hired to the major league staff in 2004 and appointed a crew chief ahead of the 2020 season. Iassogna umpired the World Series in 2012, ’17 and ’22 along with eight League Championship Series and seven Division Series.

Segal, Visconti, Rehak and Bacchus will work their first All-Star Games and Hudson his second after being in left field in 2004 at Houston.

Tony Randazzo will be the replay umpire in New York.

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A’s Rooker joins list of HR Derby participants

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A's Rooker joins list of HR Derby participants

WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Athletics slugger Brent Rooker is adding his name to the list of Home Run Derby participants.

Rooker announced Thursday that he’s participating in the event, which takes place Monday in Atlanta. He will become the first Athletics player in the Home Run Derby since Matt Olson in 2021.

“Competing in the Home Run Derby has always been a dream of mine,” Rooker said in an Instagram post. “Can’t wait to make it happen next week in Atlanta! See ya there!”

Rooker, 30, entered Thursday with a .270 batting average, 19 homers and 50 RBIs, putting him on pace for a third straight season of at least 30 homers. He went deep 30 times in 2023 and had 39 homers in 2024.

His 58 homers since the start of the 2024 season rank him third among all American League players.

The only A’s to win the Derby were Mark McGwire in 1992 and Yoenis Céspedes in 2013 and 2014.

Other announced participants include Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr., Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero, Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz, Seattle’s Cal Raleigh and Washington’s James Wood.

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O’s trade reliever Baker to Rays for draft pick

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O's trade reliever Baker to Rays for draft pick

BALTIMORE — The Orioles traded right-handed reliever Bryan Baker to AL East rival Tampa Bay on Thursday in exchange for the 37th overall pick in the 2025 MLB amateur draft, a sign that one of baseball’s most disappointing clubs could be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias wouldn’t completely commit to that idea. Speaking to reporters before Thursday’s split doubleheader against the New York Mets, he cited the 2024 Detroit Tigers, who traded players off their major league roster but held on to ace Tarik Skubal and then surged into a playoff spot.

Elias did, however, acknowledge the possibility of selling on a day that began with last-place Baltimore (40-50) sitting 12½ games behind the division-leading Toronto Blue Jays and seven out of the final AL wild-card spot.

“I think it’s a step in that direction,” said Elias three weeks before the July 31 deadline. “There’s no way around that. The timing of the draft, and when you have draft picks involved in the trades, kind of front-loads these decisions, and it’s earlier than my comfort level. But we thought it was a really good return and a good trade for everyone. So, we did it.”

The draft begins Sunday. In a corresponding move, the Orioles selected the contract of catcher David Bañuelos from Triple-A Norfolk.

After a dreadful start that brought the May dismissal of manager Brandon Hyde, the Orioles have steadied under interim skipper Tony Mansolino, playing to a 21-14 record since a loss to St. Louis on May 28.

Baker was a solid part of that, posting a 3.52 ERA, striking out 49 batters and posting a 1.096 WHIP in 38⅓ innings as the setup man for closer Felix Bautista.

“This is a team that is moving in the right direction, and we still have a lot of time left before the deadline, but this was a trade with the draft coming up in a couple days that we had to make a decision on,” Elias said. “We didn’t want to pass up on the opportunity. Hopefully, we can use the pick wisely, bring a lot of value back, and Bryan’s going to a good place.”

Mansolino is also hoping his team will get replenishments in the form of players eventually returning from the injured list. That sizable group includes several possible starting pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez (shoulder), Albert Suarez (shoulder), Tyler Wells (elbow) and Kyle Bradish (Tommy John surgery).

Meanwhile, Baltimore will now have four of the first 37 and seven of the first 93 draft picks.

“All the drafts are important, but when you have this amount of picks, it becomes more important, there’s no question about it,” Elias said. “There’s just a much bigger opportunity ahead of us, and the draft is a lifeblood for our franchise.”

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