As Sam Bankman-Fried awaits prison sentence, FTX customers await a surprise: full repayment
Government exhibit in the case against former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
Source: SDNY
As Sam Bankman-Fried prepares to face sentencing next month for his criminal fraud conviction tied to the epic collapse of FTX in 2022, former customers of the crypto exchange have reasons to believe they could actually recoup their money.
Bankman-Fried, who could spend the rest of his life behind bars, was found guilty in November on seven criminal counts after roughly $10 billion in customer funds from his company went missing. Some of that money went to pay for Bankman-Fried’s lavish lifestyle, but much of it went towards other investments that have, of late, appreciated dramatically in value.
Lawyers representing the bankruptcy estate of FTX told a judge in Delaware last week that they expect to fully repay customers and creditors with legitimate claims. Bankruptcy attorney Andrew Dietderich, who works with FTX’s new leadership team, said “there is still a great amount of work and risk” ahead in getting all the money back to clients, but that the team has a “strategy to achieve it.”
It’s a welcome development for the many thousands of customers (reportedly up to a million) who collectively lost billions of dollars in FTX’s collapse 15 months ago, when the crypto exchange spiraled into bankruptcy in a matter of days. Given the lightly regulated and unsecured nature of FTX — and the crypto industry at large — those clients faced the real possibility that the vast majority of their money had evaporated. Plenty of failed hedge funds and lenders lost virtually everything during the 2022 crypto winter.
Bankman-Fried never believed his company’s situation was that dire.
Even as regulators and federal prosecutors unearthed evidence showing that the 31-year-old entrepreneur and his top lieutenants had been pilfering billions of dollars from customer wallets for years, Bankman-Fried insisted that all the money was still somehow accessible.
“FTX US remains fully solvent,” Bankman-Fried wrote in a Substack post on Jan. 12, 2023, while he was under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California. He said the exchange “should be able to return all customers’ funds.”
In some ways, his narrative appears to be proving true.
Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried arrive for the trial of their son, former FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried, who is facing fraud charges over the collapse of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange, at Federal Court in New York City, U.S., October 26, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
For months, FTX’s new CEO, John Ray III, and his team of restructuring advisors have been clawing back cash, luxury property, and crypto, as well as tracking down missing assets. They’ve already collected more than $7 billion, and that doesn’t include valuables like $26 million in gifts and property to Bankman-Fried’s parents, or the $700 million handed over to K5 Global and founder Michael Kives, who invested FTX cash in companies like SpaceX. Some of those investments have seen a precipitous rise in value.
FTX had been negotiating with bidders about a potential reboot of the company, but those efforts were scrapped last month.
Braden Perry, who was once a senior trial lawyer for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, FTX’s only official U.S. regulator, told CNBC that the decision to repay users in full came after “the abandonment of efforts to restart the FTX crypto exchange,” in favor of “a focus on liquidating assets to make customers whole.”
Getting actual money back in the hands of customers still remains a challenge. While a lot of the value has been recouped and more is to come, divvying up large amounts of cash is a complex process in bankruptcies, particularly when so much of the money is in non-traditional and illiquid assets.
Even Ray was doubtful at the beginning of the process, noting in late 2022 that, “At the end of the day, we’re not going to be able to recover all the losses here.”
‘Sam coins’ soar
What Ray wasn’t banking on was a huge market rebound. When he made those remarks, crypto was mired in a bear market, with bitcoin trading at around $16,000. It’s now above $47,000.
In September, the bankruptcy team released a status report showing that FTX had $3.4 billion worth of digital assets, with over $1.1 billion coming from its Solana investment.
Solana fits into a category of so-called “Sam coins,” a group that also includes Serum, a token created and promoted by FTX and sister hedge fund Alameda Research. After the dust settled from FTX’s bankruptcy, Solana saw a huge run-up in its price, and it continued to rally after the September report. Since the end of that month, it’s spiked fivefold.
Meanwhile, FTX’s bitcoin stash, which was worth $560 million at the time of the September report, is today valued north of $1 billion.
Bankman-Fried’s investments weren’t limited to crypto. He also used client money to back startups like Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company founded by ex-OpenAI employees. FTX invested $500 million in Anthropic in 2021, before the generative AI boom. Anthropic’s valuation hit $18 billion in December 2023, which would value FTX’s roughly 8% stake at about $1.4 billion.
During Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial in New York, Judge Lewis Kaplan denied the defense’s request that it be permitted to say that FTX’s investment in Anthropic was a smart bet. The bankruptcy estate of FTX has been looking to sell its Anthropic stake, according to a court filing this month.
Sam Bankman-Fried stands as forewoman reads the verdict to the court.
Artist: Elizabeth Williams
In his biography on Bankman-Fried titled “Going Infinite,” Michael Lewis said he was told by an investor interested in bidding for the venture portfolio that “if it was sold intelligently, it should go for at least $2 billion.” Lewis, who published his book late last year, wrote that, based on his back-of-the-envelope math, the $7.3 billion that Ray’s team had come up with didn’t include Serum, some large clawbacks and other venture investments that had appreciated in value.
For FTX customers, being made whole, according to a judge’s ruling, means getting the cash equivalent of what their crypto was worth in November 2022. In other words, they’re not seeing any of the upside of FTX’s investments or being given virtual coins that would allow them to cash out at higher valuations.
Still, some investors have found a way to participate in the FTX’s ongoing odyssey. The market for FTX IOUs lit up last year as it became clear that the bankruptcy estate was cobbling together a lucrative portfolio. One financial firm that had lost around $100 million initially sold its FTX debt for 6 cents on the dollar in a new secondary market out of concern that he may never get a better deal. As of December, those claims were going for more than 70 cents on the dollar.
If customers are eventually made whole, that could play a big role in Bankman-Fried’s appeal, likely following his sentencing, which is set to take place in Brooklyn on March 28. Perry said it could also affect how the judge handles sentencing in the first place.
“Under the federal sentencing guidelines, and even assuming no monetary loss, SBF still faces at least 70 months in prison based on his base level offense, number of victims, sophisticated means, and leadership role,” Perry said.
The massive losses that were originally expected would suggest 30 to years to life, Perry added.
Renato Mariotti, a former prosecutor in the U.S. Justice Department’s Securities and Commodities Fraud Section, told CNBC that judges typically consider the amount of restitution paid to victims at sentencing.
“If the victim is made whole, that is a big plus for the defendant,” said Mariotti. He noted, however, that the extent of the fraud coupled with Bankman-Fried’s false testimony and violation of bond conditions could limit the reduction.
“I usually advise clients to pay restitution before sentencing if at all possible,” Mariotti said.
WATCH: Former SEC Chari discusses Bankman-Fried guilty verdict
A view of the NEO magnetic plant in Narva, a city in northeastern Estonia. A plant producing rare-earth magnets for Europe’s electric vehicle and wind-energy sectors.
Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
NARVA, Estonia — Europe’s big bet to break China’s rare earths dominance starts on Russia’s doorstep.
The continent’s largest rare-earth facility, situated on the very edge of NATO’s eastern flank, is ramping up magnet production as part of a regional push to reduce its import reliance on Beijing.
Developed by Canada’s Neo Performance Materials and opened in mid-September, the magnet plant sits in the small industrial city of Narva. This little-known border city is separated from Russia by the Narva River, which is an external frontier of both NATO and the European Union.
Analysts expect the facility to play an integral role in Europe’s plan to reduce its dependence on China, while warning that the region faces a long and difficult road ahead if it is to achieve its mineral strategy goals.
Magnets made from rare earths are essential components for the function of modern technology, such as electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones, medical equipment, artificial intelligence applications and precision weaponry.
Speaking to CNBC by video call, Neo CEO Rahim Suleman said the facility is on track to produce 2,000 metric tons of rare earth magnets this year, before scaling up to 5,000 tons and beyond as it seeks to keep pace with “an enormously quick-growing market.”
It is a frankly a billion-dollar problem that affects trillion-dollar downstream industries. So, it is worth solving.
Ryan Castilloux
managing director of Adamas Intelligence
The European region currently imports nearly all of its rare earth magnets from China, although Suleman expects Neo’s Narva facility to be capable of fulfilling around 10% of that demand.
“Having said that, our view of that number is something like 20,000 tons. So, we’d have a lot more work to do, a lot more building to do because I think the customers have a real need to diversify their supply chains,” Suleman said.
“We’re not talking about independence from any jurisdiction. We’re just talking about creating robust and diverse supply chains to reduce concentration risk,” he added.
Neo has previously announced initial contracts with Schaeffler and Bosch, major auto suppliers to the likes of German auto giants Volkswagen and BMW.
Europe’s push to deliver on its resource security goals faces several obstacles. Analysts have cited issues including a funding shortfall, burdensome regulation, a limited and fragmented made-in-EU supply chain and relatively high production costs. All of these raise questions about the viability of the EU’s ambitious supply chain targets.
“Europe needs a big increase in rare earth magnet capacity to even come close to a diversified supply chain for its carmakers,” Caroline Messecar, an analyst at Fastmarkets, told CNBC by email.
‘The guillotine still looms’
Once a previously obscure issue, rare earths have come to the fore as a key bargaining chip in the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China.
In October, China agreed to delay the introduction of further export controls on rare earth minerals as part of a deal agreed between China’s Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump. China’s earlier rare earths restrictions, which upended global supply chains, remain in place, however.
“The threat is still there; the guillotine still looms. And so, I think collectively all of this has just sobered the West, end-users and governments to the risks that they face,” Ryan Castilloux, managing director of critical mineral consultancy Adamas Intelligence, told CNBC by phone.
“It is a frankly a billion-dollar problem that affects trillion-dollar downstream industries. So, it is worth solving,” he added.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers her speech during a debate on the new 2028-2034 Multi-annual Financial Framework at the European Parliament in Brussels on November 12, 2025.
Nicolas Tucat | Afp | Getty Images
Europe, in particular, has been caught in the crosshairs of tariff turbulence. In its Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, identified Chinese export controls leading to supply chain disruptions in several sectors such as autos and green energy.
It thrusts the issue of supply diversification in the spotlight for European policymakers, especially as demand is projected to grow until 2030 and EU supply remains highly reliant on a single supplier, according to a statement from a European Commission spokesperson.
In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in October that plans were underway to launch a so-called “RESourceEU” plan — along the lines of its “REPowerEU” initiative, which sought to overcome another supply issue — energy.
The Narva project predates these measures but, with 18.7 million euros ($21.7 million) in EU funding, it’s an example of what the EU hopes to achieve. And although its output is modest when compared to overall demand, it demonstrates how the EU plans to boost the bloc’s magnet output capacity and reduce dependence on Chinese supply.
Photo taken on Sept. 19, 2025 shows inside view of NEO magnetic plant in Narva, a city in northeastern Estonia.
Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
China is the undisputed leader of the critical minerals supply chain, responsible for nearly 60% of the world’s rare earths mining and more than 90% of magnet manufacturing. Europe, meanwhile, is the world’s biggest export market for Chinese rare earths.
Russia’s doorstep
The location of Neo’s new magnet facility, meanwhile, has raised some eyebrows, given the potential security challenge of being in such close proximity to Russia.
Speaking shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Narva was historically part of Russia and needed to be taken back.
Asked why the company positioned its new rare earths plant there, Neo’s Suleman said the firm already had an existing infrastructure presence in the country, “and the right place was to be in Europe.”
“And then you go one step deeper, which is to get into Estonia. We have a long history in Estonia. We already have a rare separation facility that can do both light rare earths, and we’re developing heavy rare earths there,” Suleman said.
“We’ve been extremely impressed by the quality of the people in Estonia, their education level, their commitment to hard work … So, you put all that together, along with the support that we received both in Estonia and in the EU, and it was a great choice for us,” he added.
Estonian lawmakers have welcomed the potential of Neo’s magnet plant, saying the facility will benefit the development of both the country and broader region.
Jaanus Uiga, deputy secretary general for Energy and Mineral Resources of Estonia, said Neo’s magnet plant opened “very on time.”
Speaking to CNBC on Oct. 30, Uiga acknowledged economic tensions between the U.S. and China over rare earths, saying Estonia and the EU needed to adapt to an evolving situation.
“It is a very unique processing capability that was built in Estonia and also we are very happy for that because it happened in a region that is transitioning away from fossil fuels,” Uiga told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Newly published data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign, reveal that solar accounted for over 75% of US electrical generating capacity added in the first nine months of 2025. In September alone, solar provided 98% of new capacity, marking 25 consecutive months in which solar has led among all energy sources.
Year-to-date (YTD), solar and wind have each added more new capacity than natural gas has. The mix of all renewables remains on track to exceed 40% of installed capacity within three years; solar alone may be 20%.
Solar was 75% of new generating capacity YTD
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through September 30, 2025), FERC says 48 “units” of solar totaling 2,014 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in September, accounting for 98% of all new generating capacity added during the month. Oil provided the balance (40 MW).
The 567 units of utility-scale (>1 MW) solar added during the first nine months of 2025 total 21,257 MW and were 75.3% of the total new capacity placed into service by all sources. Solar capacity added YTD is 6.5% more than that added during the same period a year earlier.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for 25 consecutive months, from September 2023 to September 2025. During that period, total utility-scale solar capacity grew from 91.82 gigawatts (GW) to 158.43 GW. No other energy source added anything close to that amount of new capacity. Wind, for example, expanded by 11.07 GW while natural gas’s net increase was just 4.60 GW.
Between January and September, new wind energy has provided 3,724 MW of capacity additions – an increase of 28.6% compared to the same period last year and more than the new capacity provided by natural gas (3,161 MW). Wind accounted for 13.2% of all new capacity added during the first nine months of 2025.
Renewables were 88% of new capacity added YTD
Wind and solar (plus 4 MW of hydropower and 6 MW of biomass) accounted for 88.5% of all new generating capacity while natural gas added just 11.2% YTD. The balance of net capacity additions came from oil (63 MW) and waste heat (17 MW).
Utility-scale solar’s share of total installed capacity (11.78%) is now virtually tied with that of wind (11.80%). If recent growth rates continue, utility-scale solar capacity should surpass that of wind in FERC’s next “Energy Infrastructure Update” report.
Taken together, wind and solar make up 23.58% of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
Moreover, more than 25% of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar and wind to more than a quarter of the US total.
With the inclusion of hydropower (7.59%), biomass (1.05%) and geothermal (0.31%), renewables currently claim a 32.53% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables now account for more than one-third of the total US generating capacity.
Solar soon to be No. 2 source of US generating capacity
FERC reports that net “high probability” net additions of solar between October 2025 and September 2028 total 90,614 MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (23,093 MW), the second fastest growing resource.
FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (566 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 126 MW in biomass capacity.
Meanwhile, natural gas capacity is projected to expand by 6,667 MW, while nuclear power is expected to add just 335 MW. In contrast, coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,011 MW and 1,587 MW, respectively.
Taken together, the net new “high probability” net utility-scale capacity additions by all renewable energy sources over the next three years – the Trump administration’s remaining time in office – would total 114,239 MW. On the other hand, the installed capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear power combined would shrink by 18,596 MW.
Should FERC’s three-year forecast materialize, by mid-fall 2028, utility-scale solar would account for 17.3% of installed U.S. generating capacity, more than any other source besides natural gas (39.9%). Further, the capacity of the mix of all utility-scale renewable energy sources would exceed 38%. The inclusion of small-scale solar, assuming it retains its 25% share of all solar energy, could push solar’s share to over 20% and that of all renewables to over 41%, while the share of natural gas would drop to less than 38%.
In fact, the numbers for renewables could be significantly higher.
FERC notes that “all additions” (net) for utility-scale solar over the next three years could be as high as 232,487 MW, while those for wind could total 65,658 MW. Hydro’s net additions could reach 9,927 MW while geothermal and biomass could increase by 202 MW and 32 MW, respectively. Such growth by renewable sources would swamp that of natural gas (29,859 MW).
“In an effort to deny reality, the Trump Administration has just announced a renaming of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in which it has removed the word ‘renewable’,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “However, FERC’s latest data show that no amount of rhetorical manipulation can change the fact that solar, wind, and other renewables continue on the path to eventual domination of the energy market.”
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The Century is considered the most luxurious Toyota, and now it’s being spun off into its own high-end brand. Despite the rumors, the ultra-luxury brand won’t be as electric as expected.
Toyota sets new luxury brand up to fail with ICE plans
First introduced in 1967, the Century was launched in celebration of Toyota’s founder, Sakichi Toyoda’s 100th birthday.
The Century has since become a symbol of status and wealth in Japan, often used as a chauffeur car by high-profile company officials.
Toyota previewed the future of the ultra-luxury marquee at the 2025 Japan Mobility Show in October, launching it as a new standalone brand positioned above Lexus.
The new Century brand is set to rival higher-end automakers like Rolls-Royce and Bentley, but it won’t be as electric as initially expected. Toyota’s powertrain boss, Takashi Uehara, told CarExpert that the luxury brand’s first vehicle will, in fact, have an internal combustion engine.
Although no other details were offered, Uehara confirmed, “Yes, it will have an engine.” As to what kind, that has yet to be decided, Toyota’s powertrain president explained.
Like the next-gen Lexus supercar and upcoming Toyota GR GT, Uehara said the Century model could include a V8 engine.
The Century has been Toyota’s only vehicle with a V12 engine. In 2018, Toyota dropped the V12 in favor of a V8 hybrid powertrain for its third-generation.
Toyota’s Century launched its first SUV in 2023, currently on sale in Japan with a V6 plug-in hybrid system alongside the sedan.
Already widely considered the biggest laggard in the shift to fully electric vehicles, Toyota doubled down, developing a series of new internal combustion engines for upcoming models.
Century is one of the five global brands the Japanese auto giant introduced in October, along with Daihatsu, GR Sport, Lexus, and Toyota.
Electrek’s Take
It’s not surprising to see Toyota sticking with ICE for its ultra-luxury Century brand, but it will likely be a costly move.
Chinese auto giants, such as BYD and FAW Group, are quickly expanding into new segments, including high-end models under luxury brands such as Yangwang and Hongqi.
These companies are now expanding into new overseas markets, like Europe and Southeast Asia, where Japanese brands like Toyota have traditionally dominated, to drive growth.
Top luxury brands, including Porsche, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, are already struggling to keep pace with Chinese EV brands. How does Toyota plan to compete with an “ultra-luxury” brand that still sells outdated ICE vehicles? We will find out more over the coming months and years as new sales data is released.
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