With the combine underway and only a few more games in Omaha remaining, MLB draft season is winding down — so it’s time to take another stab at projecting the first round-plus of the 2025 draft.

The start of the MLB draft combine has become a sign that we’re about to enter silly season, when rumors become less attached to reality by the day. Private on-field workouts for players mentioned below are over, so there won’t be much more useful information collected — and that means the rumors are tied to controlling perception more than reflecting a new reality.

The biggest trend to note compared with the previous mock is the half-dozen or so rising college position players, which also corresponds to rumblings that the second cut of high school position players might slip a bit, often for overslot bonuses.

My “speculative” projection in the last mock was Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood at No. 17 — I thought he could be this year’s Cade Horton or Ty Floyd, rising late through the college postseason. Well, Wood threw a no-hitter earlier this week in the Men’s College World Series and now looks to have a floor somewhere in the range I initially projected him in — which was high at the time.

Now let’s predict the first 40 players to come off the board when this year’s MLB draft starts Sunday, July 13.

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Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Top 150 rank: 7

The conversation around who will go No. 1 continues to be wide open and will be until draft day, but Anderson’s strong finish to the season has him looking like the slight favorite over Ethan Holliday as the top pick. Seth Hernandez and Eli Willits are also getting looks here, and I’m sure there are internal conversations about a couple of other options, but Anderson and Holliday are seen as the most likely selections.

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Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 6

Name a player and he probably has been connected to this pick. Trying to figure out what’s actually going on here has been like watching “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” — there are more outgoing calls, workouts, rumors, misinformation and theories about the second pick than any other in the entire first round.

When in doubt, judge a team based on what it has done, and the Angels like to save on a quick-moving college player with their first pick. Despite his excellent season, Doyle’s interest seems to have a major hole in it. While there’s believed to be real interest in him at No. 2, teams picking behind the Angels think Doyle could slide all the way to No. 9 of No. 10. Doyle and Seth Hernandez have a similar group of teams eyeing them, as they’re both seen as a riskier type of pitcher (though not in the same way) than Anderson or Jamie Arnold.

There’s some buzz that prep shortstop Eli Willits could be the pick here (his father, Reggie, played for the Angels), breaking the Angels’ trend of taking college players, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Outside of the targets in the top 10 or so picks, the Angels seem to really like Georgia prep shortstop Daniel Pierce, but it’s unlikely he drops to their next pick at 47. At the Angels’ next few picks, potential quick-moving college arms such as Georgia’s Brian Curley, Tennessee’s A.J. Russell and Iowa’s Cade Obermueller make a lot of sense.

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Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Top 150 rank: 1

The Mariners seem to be zeroed in on pitching with Anderson and Arnold being the best fits for them, along with high school pitcher Seth Hernandez if they can stomach taking a prep right-hander this high. In this scenario, I think they just take Arnold. Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette is still being scouted for this pick and I’ve heard Ike Irish and JoJo Parker brought up, but they seem to be on the outside looking in right now.

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Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 3

This is one of the most well-known connections in the draft, and Holliday is likely to go fourth if he doesn’t go first. I’d guess this would be for an overslot bonus, similar to what Colorado did with Charlie Condon last year. Colorado is also tied to Aiva Arquette and Kyson Witherspoon, though I think it’d also be looking at whichever of the three college lefties remain if Holliday isn’t available.

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JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (Mississippi)
Top 150 rank: 9

This is right about where the consensus starts to open up. Names such as Ike Irish, Eli Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson come up here, and this is seen as a stopping point for Holliday, Anderson and Arnold if they get this far. Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston’s name has also come up. If Anderson, Arnold and Holliday are gone, this pick is seen as likely to be a position player — probably the one the Cards think has the best hit tool of the group. Parker would most likely come with some (but not a lot of) savings if he went here and, of late, he has momentum to sneak ahead of Carlson and/or Willits. Some teams think Parker is actually the best hitter in the draft.

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Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Top 150 rank: 8

The two players most tied to this spot are Arquette and Billy Carlson. I’ve also heard the Pirates would take prep righty Seth Hernandez if the board falls a certain way. There are some parallels to Hernandez in other picks this front office has made, such as Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler, so it makes some sense.

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Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 2

Willits has some interest at the top two picks, and then is in the mix for basically every pick starting at No. 5 with the Cardinals — so he should go by this pick or the next (Toronto). Miami is tied almost solely to prep position players –Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson come up a lot. There have also been some rumors of another underslot deal like last year’s pick of P.J. Morlando, with targets like some of the prep hitters who are projected a dozen picks or so later, if Miami doesn’t like the names/prices of the players on the board.

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Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Top 150 rank: 26

Irish will be ranked higher once I update my rankings, and his name is coming up a lot in the back half of the top 10 and into the teens. There’s lots of buzz he will go ahead of Jace LaViolette — and not that far behind Arquette, if not ahead of him. College bats are rumored to be rising late in the process this year (including Brendan Summerhill, Gavin Kilen, Wehiwa Aloy, Marek Houston, Caden Bodine and Andrew Fischer), and moving a high school player who’s a late-first-round talent to a later pick is a common and often successful strategy. Toronto is often tied to the same prep bats as Miami and St. Louis, but the Blue Jays are believed to be going the college route if the right names with the right prices don’t land here. Irish, Arquette, Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson seem to make up the group from which they’ll probably pick.

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Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 4

Hernandez, as mentioned above, is seen as likely to go either No. 3 to the Mariners or here — with some chance he goes at a couple of other slots, but half the teams in the top 10 seem unlikely to take a prep right-hander. The Reds are hoping he gets here and have no fear of taking this kind of player. If Hernandez isn’t available, they are tied to toolsy types, mostly high schoolers: Steele Hall, Jace LaViolette and Billy Carlson come up the most. This is about where Josh Hammond’s range begins, but he could also go in the 20s.

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Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 5

The White Sox are casting a wide net because of where they pick. I think Doyle — and probably Carlson and Parker, too — stops here if he happens to slide this far, while Steele Hall is also in the mix. The top tier of talent in the eyes of most evaluators is at least eight players and maybe as many as a dozen, so Chicago will have to be reactive to who is left over. But the White Sox probably will get one of the players they target from that tier.

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Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Top 150 rank: 27

This is about where the top college righties — Kyson Witherspoon and Omaha hero Gage Wood — come into the mix. This is also where that second cut of college position players, with Arquette and Irish gone in this scenario, start to come into consideration depending on what a team prefers: shortstops Wehiwa Aloy, Gavin Kilen and Marek Houston and outfielders Summerhill and Jace LaViolette. The A’s have been tied to Summerhill all spring, and he probably goes in this range and fits the type of player they’ve taken in the past. He’ll also move up in my rankings in the next update.

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Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (Alabama)
Top 150 rank: 11

Texas is right in the middle of Hall’s range and I think his most likely landing spot. The Rangers are probably straddling the line between picking up a top-tier player who might get to this spot and leading off the next tier of players, which will lean more toward prep prospects and upside. I think Hall is the last position player in that top tier. Texas is also one of the teams most in on New York prep catcher Michael Oliveto, who has interest as high as the comp round and could be the team’s second-round pick.

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Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Top 150 rank: 10

Witherspoon has some landing spots in the top 10, but Arkansas’ Gage Wood is closing in on him as the top college righty. I think both will land just outside of the top 10. The Giants have been tied to many of the aforementioned second cut of college players, with Wehiwa Aloy and Marek Houston also coming up a lot, and Irish quite similar to recently traded former first-rounder James Tibbs.

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Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 24

The Rays are tied to the top prep position players, as usual, with Hall, Jaden Fauske, Sean Gamble, Dean Moss and Josh Hammond mentioned the most — though there are also some college players tied to this pick, with Kilen leading the pack. The Rays pick again at Nos. 37 and 42, and there’s a chance most of those prep players will still be around for an overslot bonus, so grabbing a rising college bat who should go by the 20th pick is a good strategy.

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Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 13

I’m a big believer in Fien, and he fits around here or in the next half-dozen picks or so. The Red Sox were also heavy on Kilen out of high school, or I could see them being swayed by Gage Wood’s outstanding close to the college season.

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Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 21

I was high on Wood’s upside early on, having him go to the Cubs at the next pick in the last mock I did. After his historic MCWS performance, I think the consensus is he belongs in this general area, maybe as high as Nos. 12 or 13, but probably gone by 20 or 24. Wood, for the right team, could be rushed to the upper level of the minors for a potential big league look in relief as a way to limit his innings but also develop his pitchability against better hitters. Minnesota is mostly tied to college players here, and that’s who should be going in this range, though they’re also in on prep third baseman Xavier Neyens.

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Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 14

Aloy could go a half-dozen picks higher or even a bit lower than this, as the college bats in this tier are seemingly in a different order for every team. Wood still makes sense here, too, especially as a potential quick mover, along with other power bats such as Jace LaViolette, Xavier Neyens, Andrew Fischer, Josh Hammond and Tate Southisene.

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Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Top 150 rank: 15

The Diamondbacks tend to look for contact-oriented types who fit at up-the-middle positions with their high picks. College players Caden Bodine, Houston and Kilen, as well as high schoolers Slater de Brun, Daniel Pierce and Kayson Cunningham all fit here and at their next pick, No. 29.

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Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Top 150 rank: 9

Many think LaViolette’s slide would end here given Baltimore’s history of taking power-and-patience types with some defensive value. Xavier Neyens is also commonly connected to the Orioles here, among other position players being named at the picks in this range. But a number of those high school players could get floated to Baltimore’s next picks at 30 and 31.

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Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Top 150 rank: 35

Bodine’s range starts in the middle of the round with numbers-oriented teams being on him most due to his contact rates and framing prowess, both attributes that Milwaukee emphasizes. Lots of contact-oriented bats are tied here, such as Kilen, Houston, Slater de Brun and Daniel Pierce. I could also see this being a possible floor for Wood.

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Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Washington)
Top 150 rank: 19

Houston has been tied to a number of the standout athletic testers in the prep class such as Neyens, Tate Southisene, Josh Hammond and Sean Gamble. I could also see this being a floor for power-oriented college bats such as LaViolette and Aloy, with some overlap between the Astros’ targets and which player the Orioles take at No. 19.

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Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Top 150 rank: 28

Bremner has been a bit disappointing this season but has now fallen enough that he’s a strong value for a team to get in the 20s with a number of landing spots throughout the comp round. I think this Braves pick will be a nice landing spot for college talent with Houston, Wood and Bodine also mentioned here.

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Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (North Carolina)
Top 150 rank: 18

Hammond has a number of potential landing spots starting around No. 10 and ending somewhere in the mid-20s. Given Hammond’s two-way exploits, there are parallels here with Austin Riley, a player Royals scouting director Brian Bridges drafted while with Atlanta. I’d expect prep pitching and/or a prep shortstop (lots of names are mentioned, especially given Kansas City’s history) at their next few picks.

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Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 53

Fischer is rising due to his strong performance in the SEC this year, and while he’s likely still behind Irish, he might be sneaking up on LaViolette with a chance to go in the top 20 picks. I think Detroit is looking to pair a college player with a high school player between this pick and its next (34) and will be looking mostly at left-handed hitters. As you can guess, that means a lot of different players have been tied to these two picks. Slater de Brun, Cam Cannarella, Jaden Fauske and Kayson Cunningham come up the most.

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Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (Oregon)
Top 150 rank: 16

De Brun is believed to be in play for Arizona at No. 18 but otherwise probably lands somewhere in the 20s. The Padres are tied to a number of high school players here — Dax Kilby, Quentin Young, Kruz Schoolcraft and Matthew Fisher, among others — but also seem to be in on some college players such as Ethan Conrad and Bremner. I’d predict they go with a high schooler, especially given their history.

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Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy (Florida)
Top 150 rank: 23

The Phillies are considering some high school players with upside, as you’d expect, and if the board plays out this way, Gamble, Daniel Pierce or Kayson Cunningham all fit. There’s a good shot they would look to pair this pick with a prep arm at their next pick.

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Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (Nevada)
Top 150 rank: 22

I think the Guardians will be in on what’s left of the upside prep position player crop along with being opportunistic if a college player such as Fischer, Wood, Bodine or Bremner falls this far.

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Prospect promotion incentive picks

28. Kansas City Royals: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (Georgia)

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Compensation picks

29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
31. Baltimore Orioles: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (Georgia)
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy HS (Illinois)

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Competitive balance picks

33. Boston Red Sox: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
34. Detroit Tigers: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (Florida)
35. Seattle Mariners: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
36. Minnesota Twins: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU

These three teams had their first-round picks moved down 10 slots due to exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax. We’ll include them so all 30 teams have a projected pick.

Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
Top 150 rank: 57

Taylor has a lot of interest in the comp round and doesn’t have an enormous upside, but he could be quick moving with 55-grade hit and power grades.

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J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
Top 150 rank: 50

Middleton has a lot of interest from a late-first-round to an early-second-round pick as a power arm with starter feel and gaudy numbers this spring. He’s similar as a prospect to two top picks in last year’s draft, college righties Ben Hess and Bryce Cunningham.

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Quentin Young, SS, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
Top 150 rank: 101

Young, nephew of Dmitri and Delmon Young, is tied to the Dodgers and Padres and has lots of late momentum despite his high whiff rates in the spring and last summer. That’s due to his gargantuan upside as a 6-foot-6 infielder with plus-plus raw power that might be 80-grade one day; he’ll be moving up in the update of my top 150 rankings. The Dodgers also have the 41st pick, and while I have them tied to a number of arms, I landed on Louisville’s Patrick Forbes.

The 2025 MLB draft is around the corner, with the first round beginning July 13.

There are a lot of challenges in baseball. Hitting sometimes seems impossible given the velocity and stuff from pitchers these days, and for those pitchers, throwing quality strikes is a test and staying healthy a huge challenge. But the most difficult thing in the sport might be drafting. It’s one thing to scout tools, it’s another to project an 18-year-old high school kid as a 25-year-old major leaguer. Finding the baseball players among the athletes or the velocity kings seems more difficult nowadays than ever.

How difficult is it? We went through the past 10 drafts, from 2015 through 2024, and redrafted the top 10 selections. Leaving aside the two most recent drafts, whose players are still very early in their evaluation, only 16 of 80 top-10 selections made the redrafted top 10. Two of the drafts are 0-for-10 in any of their top-10 selections ranking in the redrafted top 10. This helps explain why teams such as the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins remained mired in the muck of the standings: They haven’t drafted well (although the Pirates at least got the No. 1 pick in 2023 right last year and might have crushed last year’s top-10 pick as well).

Let’s go back through the past 10 drafts to see what the redrafts look like right now. View this through the lens of a specific moment in the baseball timeline. If we redo this piece in a few years, it will look much different than it does now, especially for the more recent drafts.

Jump to a draft … :
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019

2015

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

New pick: Alex Bregman | Original pick: Dansby Swanson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2

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2. Houston Astros

New pick: Kyle Tucker | Original pick: Alex Bregman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5

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3. Colorado Rockies

New pick: Austin Riley | Original pick: Brendan Rodgers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 41

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4. Texas Rangers

New pick: Dansby Swanson | Original pick: Dillon Tate
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1

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5. Houston Astros

New pick: Ian Happ | Original pick: Kyle Tucker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9

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6. Minnesota Twins

New pick: Walker Buehler | Original pick: Tyler Jay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24

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7. Boston Red Sox

New pick: Andrew Benintendi | Original pick: Andrew Benintendi

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8. Chicago White Sox

New pick: Brandon Lowe | Original pick: Carson Fulmer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 87

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9. Chicago Cubs

New pick: Cedric Mullins | Original pick: Ian Happ
Where new pick was originally drafted: 403

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10. Philadelphia Phillies

New pick: Tyler Stephenson | Original pick: Cornelius Randolph
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11

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Other notable players from 2015: Harrison Bader, Jake Cronenworth, Paul DeJong, Trent Grisham, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ryan Helsley, Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Naylor

Best draft: Houston Astros. They crushed it by taking Bregman and Tucker with the second and fifth picks, plus eight others who made the majors, including Myles Straw and Patrick Sandoval. Indeed, while Bregman currently has about 17 more career WAR than Tucker, given that Tucker is three years younger, he might end up as the best player in this draft.

Honorable mention goes to the St. Louis Cardinals, who drafted Bader and Jordan Hicks in the third round and then DeJong and Helsley in Rounds 4 and 5.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Cornelius Randolph. Viewed as perhaps the top high school bat in the draft, Randolph ended up the second high school player selected after Tucker in a college-heavy first round. Randolph didn’t hit for average or much power and never made it past Double-A — although he’s still playing professionally in the Mexican League.

Overview: This wasn’t viewed as a strong draft at the time — ESPN’s Keith Law had called it the weakest at the top since 2000 — and that has held true a decade later, with a dearth of stars and even some of the better players such as Swanson relying heavily on defense for their value.

The Astros had the second pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken the year before, and Bregman was in the big leagues for them a year later. Tucker was chosen with their regular selection at No. 5, and then they used another first-round pick to select Daz Cameron, who turned into one of the key players used to acquire Justin Verlander in 2017.

The oddest story out of this draft came courtesy of the short-lived Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart regime in Arizona. After selecting Swanson with the first pick, the Diamondbacks traded him and a good outfielder in Ender Inciarte (coming off a 5.0-WAR season) to Atlanta for Shelby Miller in December 2015.

“I think the Diamondbacks are nuts,” Law said at the time. “It’s one thing to win now. It’s another to just give away surplus value.”

The deal backfired for Arizona when Miller immediately got hurt to start the 2016 season and struggled thereafter, leading to the team going 69-93 and costing La Russa and Stewart their jobs.

2016

1. Philadelphia Phillies

New pick: Will Smith | Original pick: Mickey Moniak
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2

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2. Cincinnati Reds

New pick: Corbin Burnes | Original pick: Nick Senzel
Where new pick was originally drafted: 111

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3. Atlanta Braves

New pick: Pete Alonso | Original pick: Ian Anderson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 64

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4. Colorado Rockies

New pick: Bo Bichette | Original pick: Riley Pint
Where new pick was originally drafted: 66

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5. Milwaukee Brewers

New pick: Zac Gallen | Original pick: Corey Ray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 106

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6. Oakland Athletics

New pick: Shane Bieber | Original pick: A.J. Puk
Where new pick was originally drafted: 122

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7. Miami Marlins

New pick: Tommy Edman | Original pick: Braxton Garrett
Where new pick was originally drafted: 196

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8. San Diego Padres

New pick: Bryan Reynolds | Original pick: Cal Quantrill
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59

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9. Detroit Tigers

New pick: Sean Murphy | Original pick: Matt Manning
Where new pick was originally drafted: 83

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10. Chicago White Sox

New pick: Michael King | Original pick: Zack Collins
Where new pick was originally drafted: 353

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Other notable players from 2016: TJ Friedl, Tony Gonsolin, Austin Hays, Josh Lowe, Nathaniel Lowe, Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, Cole Ragans

Best draft: Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers snagged Lux with the No. 20 pick and then college catcher Smith with the 32nd selection — and 12 others who have reached the majors. Gonsolin and Dustin May are two of those players and have shown flashes of success interspersed with many injuries, but both remain on the Dodgers’ roster (Gonsolin is currently injured again). Another honorable mention to the Cardinals for their midround magic, taking Gallen in the third round and Edman in the sixth, although Gallen was traded alongside Sandy Alcantara to the Marlins as part of the Marcell Ozuna trade.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Riley Pint. A high school right-hander from Kansas, Pint routinely hit 100 mph — topping out at 102 — and was regarded as perhaps the hardest-throwing high school pitcher of all time. The Rockies took him with the fourth pick, with some viewing him as possessing the highest ceiling in the draft. Alas … that was not the case.

“Despite his clean arm action, he has a head-jerk at release that could make it hard for him to throw consistent strikes,” Law wrote on ESPN. Pint did have trouble throwing strikes, and while he retired temporarily in 2021, he at least managed to briefly reach the majors with the Rockies in 2023-24.

Overview: In a draft that lacked a clear-cut No. 1 selection, the Phillies went with California high school outfielder Moniak, regarded as the best pure hitter in the draft. He has made more than 1,000 plate appearances in the majors but has never mastered the strike zone and has a career on-base percentage under .300.

He’s not the only first-round pick who didn’t make it big, however. In fact, the top 30 picks have combined for just one All-Star appearance — Ragans, the 30th selection, made it last year with the Royals. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t talent available. The 10 players we redrafted above have combined for 18 All-Star appearances and two Cy Young Awards, from Burnes and Bieber. They were both fourth-round picks, Burnes out of Saint Mary’s College and Bieber out of UC Santa Barbara. Burnes just underwent Tommy John surgery, though, while Bieber is on the mend from his TJ surgery last year, so their career values might now be more limited.

2017

1. Minnesota Twins

New pick: Hunter Greene | Original pick: Royce Lewis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2

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2. Cincinnati Reds

New pick: Daulton Varsho | Original pick: Hunter Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 68

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3. San Diego Padres

New pick: MacKenzie Gore | Original pick: MacKenzie Gore

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4. Tampa Bay Rays

New pick: David Peterson | Original pick: Brendan McKay
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20

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5. Atlanta Braves

New pick: Royce Lewis | Original pick: Kyle Wright
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1

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6. Oakland Athletics

New pick: Bailey Ober | Original pick: Austin Beck
Where new pick was originally drafted: 346

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7. Arizona Diamondbacks

New pick: Brent Rooker | Original pick: Pavin Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 35

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8. Philadelphia Phillies

New pick: Mark Vientos | Original pick: Adam Haseley
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59

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9. Milwaukee Brewers

New pick: Heliot Ramos | Original pick: Keston Hiura
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19

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10. Los Angeles Angels

New pick: Jose Caballero | Original pick: Jo Adell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 202

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Other notable players from 2017: Shane Baz, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Houck, Jake Meyers, Clarke Schmidt, JP Sears, Taylor Walls

Best draft: Minnesota Twins. The Twins drafted three players who made our top-10 redraft list in Lewis (whom they did choose with the first overall pick), Rooker (No. 35) and Ober (a 12th-round pick), although Lewis’ ranking remains more speculative in the hopes that he can figure out a way to remain healthy and produce some offense. He hasn’t done either so far in 2025.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Keston Hiura. While other picks — such as McKay and Wright — were sidetracked by injuries, Hiura quickly reached the majors in 2019 and looked like a future star after hitting .303/.368/.570 in 84 games. A lot of players had phony numbers that season, however, and his high strikeout rate caught up to him in 2020. He has spent most of the past three seasons in the minors.

Overview: In the 2015 overview, we pointed out that year’s draft class was viewed as the worst since 2000. Well, 2017 was viewed at the time as perhaps even weaker than 2015.

“You’ve probably heard by now, from me or from others who cover the draft, that this year’s class is weaker than normal,” Law wrote in his draft rankings. “I still believe this is true, perhaps even more today than I did a month ago.”

While there is still time for some players here to improve, they’re running out of time: The college players are now 29 or 30 years old, and the high school draftees are in their mid-20s. The only players with even 10 career WAR so far are Varsho and Greene, with Ober getting close. Heck, Taylor Walls, a player with a career average under .200, actually ranks fourth in career WAR thanks to his outstanding defense — but that merely confirms how weak this class has been.

In fact, at the time of his ranking, Law wrote that even the 2000 class had produced eight players with 30 WAR (it’s now nine). That class also has two potential Hall of Famers in Yadier Molina and Chase Utley, a 200-game winner in Adam Wainwright and Cy Young winners in Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb (plus some great hitters in Adrian Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista). While the first round in 2000 was weak, there was plenty of talent later in the draft. The 2017 draft was weak in both areas — and maybe will go down as the weakest draft of all time.

2018

1. Detroit Tigers

New pick: Tarik Skubal | Original pick: Casey Mize
Where new pick was originally drafted: 255

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2. San Francisco Giants

New pick: Cal Raleigh | Original pick: Joey Bart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 90

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3. Philadelphia Phillies

New pick: Jeremy Pena | Original pick: Alec Bohm
Where new pick was originally drafted: 102

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4. Chicago White Sox

New pick: Steven Kwan | Original pick: Nick Madrigal
Where new pick was originally drafted: 163

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5. Cincinnati Reds

New pick: Nico Hoerner | Original pick: Jonathan India
Where new pick was originally drafted: 24

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6. New York Mets

New pick: Logan Gilbert | Original pick: Jarred Kelenic
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14

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7. San Diego Padres

New pick: Jarren Duran | Original pick: Ryan Weathers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 220

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8. Atlanta Braves

New pick: Joe Ryan | Original pick: Carter Stewart
Where new pick was originally drafted: 210

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9. Oakland Athletics

New pick: Brice Turang | Original pick: Kyler Murray
Where new pick was originally drafted: 21

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10. Pittsburgh Pirates

New pick: Lawrence Butler | Original pick: Travis Swaggerty
Where new pick was originally drafted: 173

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Other notable players from 2018: Kyle Bradish, Kris Bubic, Triston Casas, Brendan Donovan, Xavier Edwards, Ryan Jeffers, Shane McClanahan, Lars Nootbaar, Logan O’Hoppe, Drew Rasmussen, Grayson Rodriguez, Brady Singer

Best draft: Seattle Mariners. You could go with the Tampa Bay Rays, who showed their penchant for identifying pitchers with Matthew Liberatore (first round), McClanahan (first round), Taj Bradley (fifth round) and Ryan (seventh round). The Tigers also got Mize, Skubal and Parker Meadows. But we’ll go with Seattle’s draft, even though it’s just two players in Raleigh and Gilbert. Given the scarcity of good catchers, Raleigh has a case as the potential No. 1 pick in a redraft, especially with what he’s doing in 2025, but Skubal might be on his way to a second straight Cy Young Award, giving him that first selection in our redraft.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Kyler Murray/Carter Stewart. This draft had two of the more curious outcomes in recent draft history. Murray’s story is well known. The A’s pulled a mild surprise in taking him ninth overall even though he had played just one full season of baseball at Oklahoma. They gave him a $4.66 million signing bonus and agreed to let him play one more year of college football before beginning his baseball career. Murray won the Heisman Trophy that fall and ditched baseball for the NFL.

Stewart’s story is less known. A big high school right-hander from Florida, Stewart was up to 98 mph with a high-spin curveball. He was No. 2 on ESPN’s draft board and No. 5 on MLB.com’s, and he went eighth to the Braves. A wrist injury reportedly caused the Braves to lower their bonus offer, which Stewart declined to sign, enrolling in junior college instead. Rather than waiting for the 2019 draft, however, he signed to play in Japan with the Fukuoaka Soft Bank Hawks on a six-year deal worth a reported $6 million — becoming the first U.S.-born first-round pick to sign his first professional contract with a Japanese team.

After some time in the Japanese minor leagues, Stewart had a breakout season in 2024, posting a 1.95 ERA in 120 innings. Along the way, he signed a two-year, $10 million extension. He has been injured so far in 2025 and hasn’t pitched, but he would still be just 27 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after 2026.

Overview: While this draft hasn’t necessarily produced a long list of big stars, the overall depth is impressive — even though the top 10 selections have been underwhelming, with India leading that group with less than 7 career WAR. Mize was the no-doubt top pick after a dominant junior season at Auburn and, after a slow start to his career and Tommy John surgery in 2022, is having his best season in 2025. The Giants would have been better off selecting a different ACC catcher than Bart (Georgia Tech) as the Mariners got Raleigh (Florida State) in the third round.

The steal of the draft, of course, has been Skubal, a ninth-round pick out of Seattle University. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missed the 2017 season, although he returned to throw some bullpens before the draft. The Diamondbacks took him in the 29th round, but he returned to school. Even though he was up to 95 mph, his wildness scared teams off.

A key to the long-term value of this draft will be the health of the pitchers. Mize, Rasmussen and Bubic have already returned from injuries (multiple Tommy John surgeries in Rasmussen’s case). Bradish, McClanahan and Rodriguez have yet to pitch in 2025, and Gilbert is currently on the injured list as well.

2019

1. Baltimore Orioles

New pick: Bobby Witt Jr. | Original pick: Adley Rutschman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2

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2. Kansas City Royals

New pick: Gunnar Henderson | Original pick: Bobby Witt Jr.
Where new pick was originally drafted: 42

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3. Chicago White Sox

New pick: Corbin Carroll | Original pick: Andrew Vaughn
Where new pick was originally drafted: 16

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4. Miami Marlins

New pick: Riley Greene | Original pick: JJ Bleday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5

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5. Detroit Tigers

New pick: Adley Rutschman | Original pick: Riley Greene
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1

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6. San Diego Padres

New pick: CJ Abrams | Original pick: CJ Abrams

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7. Cincinnati Reds

New pick: Hunter Brown | Original pick: Nick Lodolo
Where new pick was originally drafted: 166

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8. Texas Rangers

New pick: Michael Harris II | Original pick: Josh Jung
Where new pick was originally drafted: 98

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9. Atlanta Braves

New pick: Anthony Volpe | Original pick: Shea Langeliers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30

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10. San Francisco Giants

New pick: George Kirby | Original pick: Hunter Bishop
Where new pick was originally drafted: 20

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Other notable players from 2019: Michael Busch, Kerry Carpenter, Brenton Doyle, Tyler Fitzgerald, Hunter Gaddis, Nick Lodolo, Vinnie Pasquantino, Ryan Pepiot, Josh Smith, Spencer Steer, Bryson Stott, Matt Wallner

Best draft: Baltimore Orioles. Rutschman was the consensus top player after a stellar career at Oregon State that saw him hit .411/.575/.751 his draft year, and the Orioles ended up going chalk by taking him at No. 1 after some smoke they might go in a different direction. Henderson was the first pick of the second round out of an Alabama high school, with concerns about his ability to stay at shortstop and ultimate power upside, but he has proven skeptics wrong on both accounts. The Orioles also got Kyle Stowers later in Round 2 and Joey Ortiz in Round 4, both later traded for pitching help.

The Diamondbacks drafted eight players who have since made the majors, including Carroll out of a Seattle high school with the 16th pick. Another honorable mention to the Braves, who got Harris in the third round, Langeliers in the first round (part of the Matt Olson trade) and Vaughn Grissom in the 11th round (traded for Chris Sale).

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Andrew Vaughn. The third pick out of Cal, Vaughn was viewed as a sure-thing, a polished college hitter on par with Rutschman. In college, he combined a high average with power and plate discipline (104 walks to 51 strikeouts his sophomore and junior seasons), but he has hit just .248/.303/.407 in the majors. The White Sox finally gave up and recently traded him to the Brewers, who sent him to the minors. His plate discipline didn’t translate to the pros and a slow bat has limited damage on contact.

Overview: Witt gets first slot in the redraft over Henderson. Witt was second or third on most predraft boards, although there was some concern that he was already 19 years old at draft time — a big red flag for teams who follow draft models that view older high schoolers as a negative. Obviously, it wasn’t, and Witt is now one of the game’s biggest stars. I have Greene ahead of Rutschman in the redraft on account of age — he’s three years younger — and current level of production. You could make a similar argument for Abrams. Brown is climbing this list, while Harris burst on the scene with a Rookie of the Year season in 2022, but his offense has stagnated the past two seasons due to a hyper-aggressive approach that has him with one of the highest chase rates in the majors.

Still, after the mediocre returns from the 2015-2017 drafts, this looks a little more like what you might think a top 10 should look like, with at least three major stars in Witt, Henderson and Carroll leading the way. It’s not a historic class, but it’s a reminder that most drafts aren’t loaded with future stars.

2020

1. Detroit Tigers

New pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong | Original pick: Spencer Torkelson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 19

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2. Baltimore Orioles

New pick: Garrett Crochet | Original pick: Heston Kjerstad
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11

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3. Miami Marlins

New pick: Spencer Strider | Original pick: Max Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 126

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4. Kansas City Royals

New pick: Masyn Winn | Original pick: Asa Lacy
Where new pick was originally drafted: 54

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5. Minnesota Twins

New pick: Austin Wells | Original pick: Austin Martin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 28

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6. Seattle Mariners

New pick: Jordan Westburg | Original pick: Emerson Hancock
Where new pick was originally drafted: 30

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7. Pittsburgh Pirates

New pick: Evan Carter | Original pick: Nick Gonzales
Where new pick was originally drafted: 50

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8. San Diego Padres

New pick: Jared Jones | Original pick: Robert Hassell III
Where new pick was originally drafted: 44

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9. Colorado Rockies

New pick: Kyle Harrison | Original pick: Zac Veen
Where new pick was originally drafted: 85

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10. Los Angeles Angels

New pick: Spencer Torkelson | Original pick: Reid Detmers
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1

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Other notable players from 2020: Mick Abel, Patrick Bailey, Dillon Dingler, Bryce Elder, Colt Keith, Coby Mayo, Cade Smith, Tyler Soderstrom, Gavin Stone, Jordan Walker

Best draft: Atlanta Braves. In a draft shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Braves selected three major leaguers in their four picks, including Strider in the fourth round and 2023 All-Star Elder in the fourth. Strider had undergone Tommy John surgery at Clemson in 2019 and made just four appearances in 2020 before the pandemic, so scouts had a limited post-surgery look at him. The Orioles could also be here with Westburg, Kjerstad and Mayo, but the latter two have yet to do any damage in the majors despite their high prospect rankings.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Jordan Walker. The Cardinals took Walker with the 21st pick, and it soon looked like he might end up as the top player from this draft after he zoomed through the minors and reached the majors in 2023 at age 21, hitting a more-than-respectable .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs in 117 games. But he has been unable to come close to that production the past two seasons as he has struggled to make contact. The raw tools — bat speed and projectable power — are still there and he’s still just 23 years old, but it has been a frustrating two years.

Overview: The 2020 draft was always going to be unpredictable as college seasons shut down after a few weeks because of the pandemic and some high school seasons never even got going, so scouts had limited spring viewings of prospects. The draft was limited to five rounds, and teams focused on college players early, with eight of the first 10 picks from the collegiate ranks.

Still, even by these difficult measures, we haven’t seen great results from those first 10 picks, with only Torkelson making the redraft top 10 — and even then, you could argue for Tyler Soderstrom, defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey or Cade Smith, who has excelled as a reliever after Cleveland signed him as an undrafted free agent. There remains a lot of unknowns for some of the players in the redraft top 10: Jared Jones had Tommy John surgery this season, Evan Carter had a breakout postseason in helping the Rangers win the World Series in 2023 but had injury issues last season, and Harrison was just traded to the Red Sox.

There’s no doubt about the top guy at this particular moment, however, as Crow-Armstrong, on his way to a possible 40-40 season in his first full year in the majors, leaps over Crochet and Strider. Unfortunately for the Mets, who drafted him 19th overall out of famed Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, they traded him to the Cubs for Javier Baez in 2022.

2021

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

New pick: James Wood | Original pick: Henry Davis
Where new pick was originally drafted: 62

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2. Texas Rangers

New pick: Jackson Merrill | Original pick: Jack Leiter
Where new pick was originally drafted: 27

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3. Detroit Tigers

New pick: Marcelo Mayer | Original pick: Jackson Jobe
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4

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4. Boston Red Sox

New pick: Spencer Schwellenbach | Original pick: Marcelo Mayer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 59

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5. Baltimore Orioles

New pick: Bryan Woo | Original pick: Colton Cowser
Where new pick was originally drafted: 174

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6. Arizona Diamondbacks

New pick: Bryce Miller | Original pick: Jordan Lawlar
Where new pick was originally drafted: 113

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7. Kansas City Royals

New pick: Tanner Bibee | Original pick: Frank Mozzicato
Where new pick was originally drafted: 156

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8. Colorado Rockies

New pick: Andrew Abbott | Original pick: Benny Montgomery
Where new pick was originally drafted:

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9. Los Angeles Angels

New pick: Bubba Chandler | Original pick: Sam Bachman
Where new pick was originally drafted: 72

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10. New York Mets

New pick: Andrew Painter | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13

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Other notable players from 2021: Noah Cameron, Ben Casparius, Colton Cowser, Harry Ford, Sal Frelick, Brady House, Jackson Jobe, Kyle Manzardo, Matt McLain, Mason Miller, Max Muncy, Ben Rice, Carson Williams, Gavin Williams, Jacob Young

Best draft: San Diego Padres. The Padres are often unpredictable in the draft, but they love high-upside talent and might have gotten the two best players from this draft in Wood and Merrill. Merrill was the 27th overall pick, the highest-drafted Maryland high school player this century. He was a late riser whom many scouts hadn’t even seen until a couple weeks before the draft. Wood went with the 62nd pick out of IMG Academy in Florida, and scouts knew all about his power but had concerns about his hit tool. Well, he has figured out the hit thing and will be headed to the All-Star Game … as a member of the Nationals, after he was traded in the Juan Soto deal.

Honorable mention to the Mariners, who drafted collegiate pitchers Miller in the fourth round and Woo in the sixth, with both rising quickly to the majors and having immediate success in Seattle (although Miller is currently injured). Catcher Harry Ford was their first-round pick, and he’s a consensus top-50 prospect playing well in Triple-A, while second-round pick Edwin Arroyo was a key player dealt to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo trade.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Henry Davis. There was no consensus best player in 2021, so the Pirates went with Louisville catcher Davis and signing him to a below-slot bonus to spread their pool money around (four of the next five picks each received a higher bonus). Davis was viewed as having the highest floor of the potential top choices, but he just hasn’t hit in the majors and is the backup catcher for the Pirates with a sub-.200 career average. With the savings on Davis, however, the Pirates did give third-round pick Bubba Chandler $2 million above slot to pull him away from a Clemson football scholarship, and he’s now the top pitching prospect in the minors.

Overview: This draft looks like it will be pretty deep in talent, especially on the pitching side — depending on long-term health. For now, I’ve slotted the pitchers who have proven themselves in the majors ahead of the ones who haven’t, but in a few years, it’s certainly possible that Chandler and Painter will be the top pitchers from this draft.

Wood or Merrill for the top player? There’s a case to be made for Merrill, because he plays center field while Wood is in left, but Wood’s bat is already special, with huge raw power and a good eye at the plate. He could be on his way to a 40-homer season in his age-22 season. Merrill is more aggressive, which might ultimately limit his OBP upside in comparison to Wood. If Wood was a bad corner outfielder, you might still go with Merrill, but at least for now Wood still runs well and plays an above-average left field.

Mayer slots in third. He was the top player on some draft boards and has played well in the minors with the range to play shortstop (although the Red Sox have used him at third base since his callup). Shortstop Carson Williams of the Rays, a late first-round pick, had helium entering 2025 but has struggled to make contact in Triple-A, he so falls out of the top 10 redraft — though, he has the talent to eventually climb back in. Lawlar ranked seventh on ESPN Kiley McDaniel’s recent top 50 prospects update, but he has had some injury issues in the minors and is 4-for-50 in a couple major league trials. He merits consideration for the top 10, although he’s now blocked at shortstop in Arizona by Geraldo Perdomo.

2022

1. Baltimore Orioles

New pick: Roman Anthony | Original pick: Jackson Holliday
Where new pick was originally drafted: 79

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2. Arizona Diamondbacks

New pick: Zach Neto | Original pick: Druw Jones
Where new pick was originally drafted: 13

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3. Texas Rangers

New pick: Jackson Holliday | Original pick: Kumar Rocker
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1

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4. Pittsburgh Pirates

New pick: Jacob Misiorowski | Original pick: Termarr Johnson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 63

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5. Washington Nationals

New pick: Drake Baldwin | Original pick: Elijah Green
Where new pick was originally drafted: 96

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6. Miami Marlins

New pick: Dalton Rushing | Original pick: Jacob Berry
Where new pick was originally drafted: 40

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7. Chicago Cubs

New pick: Cade Horton | Original pick: Cade Horton

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8. Minnesota Twins

New pick: Jett Williams | Original pick: Brooks Lee
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14

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9. Kansas City Royals

New pick: Noah Schultz | Original pick: Gavin Cross
Where new pick was originally drafted: 26

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10. Colorado Rockies

New pick: Victor Scott II | Original pick: Gabriel Hughes
Where new pick was originally drafted: 157

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Other notable players from 2022: Hayden Birdsong, Justin Crawford, Chase Meidroth, Chandler Simpson, Drew Thorpe, Jonah Tong, Cole Young

Best draft: New York Mets. Williams, the 14th overall pick, is one of the top shortstop prospects in the minors while Tong, a seventh-round pick out of Canada, is having a monster season in Double-A averaging more than 14 K’s per nine. Third-rounder Blade Tidwell has also reached the majors. Kevin Parada, a catcher from Georgia Tech taken three spots ahead of Williams, has struggled to hit, however.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Elijah Green. The 2022 draft featured several talented high school position players, with Holliday, Jones, Johnson and Green all going in the top five picks. Holliday quickly became the top prospect in the minors and is playing well for the Orioles, but the other three have all struggled to live up to the hype so far. Green was always the riskiest of the group but had physical tools that drew comparisons to Ronald Acuna Jr. Concerns about his contact rate have proven true, however, and after whiffing 206 times in Single-A in 2024, he’s hitting under .200 in High-A this year.

Overview: While the top high school bats have yet to perform, the Red Sox got Anthony at the end of the second round with the 79th pick. His status as the top prospect in the minors before his recent call-up earns him the top slot in this re-draft. Just to show how difficult drafting is, however: The Red Sox drafted two high school shortstops before they selected Anthony.

I have Neto ahead of Holliday for now, in part because Neto is a shortstop while Holliday has had to move to second base (and not just because of Gunnar Henderson — Holliday’s range and arm wouldn’t play at shortstop). Holliday is three years younger and just 21 years old, so there’s still plenty of time for his bat to improve. Neto was the 13th pick out of Campbell, in the Big South Conference — a late riser his draft year. He reached the majors with the Angels in 2023, and his power has been even better than projected, with 23 home runs in 2024 as part of an impressive 5.1-WAR season. You’d like to see him improve his strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he’s the best Angels draft pick since Mike Trout.

2023

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

New pick: Paul Skenes | Original pick: Paul Skenes

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2. Washington Nationals

New pick: Jacob Wilson | Original pick: Dylan Crews
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6

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3. Detroit Tigers

New pick: Wyatt Langford | Original pick: Max Clark
Where new pick was originally drafted: 4

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4. Texas Rangers

New pick: Max Clark | Original pick: Wyatt Langford
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3

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5. Minnesota Twins

New pick: Walker Jenkins | Original pick: Walker Jenkins

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6. Oakland Athletics

New pick: Kristian Campbell | Original pick: Jacob Wilson
Where new pick was originally drafted: 132

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7. Cincinnati Reds

New pick: Dylan Crews | Original pick: Rhett Lowder
Where new pick was originally drafted: 2

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8. Kansas City Royals

New pick: Colt Emerson | Original pick: Blake Mitchell
Where new pick was originally drafted: 22

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9. Colorado Rockies

New pick: Kevin McGonigle | Original pick: Chase Dollander
Where new pick was originally drafted: 37

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10. Miami Marlins

New pick: Chase Dollander | Original pick: Noble Meyer
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9

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Other notable players from 2023: Bryce Eldridge, Zyhir Hope, Luke Keaschall, George Lombard Jr., Aidan Miller, Arjun Nimmala, Nolan Schanuel, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel

Best draft: Detroit Tigers. Certainly, it’s way too early to tell here. Maybe it’s just the Pirates with Skenes. The Red Sox got Campbell in the fourth round with first-rounder Teel going to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade. But let’s go with the Tigers as Clark and McGonigle, both high school selections, have hit well in the lower minors and could be excellent all-around players if their power develops. Second-rounder Max Anderson is having a big season in Double-A, and fifth-round pitcher Jaden Hamm, out of Middle Tennessee State, has also been in Double-A all season after having a strong year in 2024 in High-A.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Dylan Crews. By no means are we writing Crews off — we still have him going seventh in the redraft — but his early scuffles in the majors, including a .196 average in 2025, are surprising given the numbers he put up at LSU (.426/.567/.713 as a junior). The plate discipline he had in college hasn’t translated to the pros, and he didn’t tear up the minors in 2024. His MLB numbers also pale in comparison to Langford, who went two picks later. Still, we need more than 300 plate appearances before passing final judgment.

Overview: Remember, it was a slam dunk for the Pirates to take Skenes. Pitchers come with their obvious injury risks, while Crews and Langford were two of the more accomplished college hitters in recent years. But still, they clearly made the right choice.

Wilson was a bit of a surprise pick at sixth overall for the A’s. Scouts loved his elite contact ability coming out of Grand Canyon University, but you don’t project anyone to hit .350 in the majors and Wilson has a chance to do that. His power has been the biggest surprise, as he’s already exceeding the Nico Hoerner comparisons. He’s not going to be a Gold Glove shortstop, but he’s competent enough there to slot ahead of Langford in the redraft at No. 2. The ultimate strength of this draft will rely on the talented group of high school hitters — Clark, Jenkins, Emerson, McGonigle, Miller, Eldridge, Nimmala and others — who look good so far with some of them starting to get tested in the upper minors. Eldrige is super intriguing: The 6-foot-7 slugger is just 20 years old and already in Triple-A for the Giants.

2024

1. Cleveland Guardians

New pick: Jac Caglianone | Original pick: Travis Bazzana
Where new pick was originally drafted: 6

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2. Cincinnati Reds

New pick: Chase Burns | Original pick: Chase Burns

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3. Colorado Rockies

New pick: Konnor Griffin | Original pick: Charlie Condon
Where new pick was originally drafted: 9

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4. Oakland Athletics

New pick: Nick Kurtz | Original pick: Nick Kurtz

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5. Chicago White Sox

New pick: JJ Wetherholt | Original pick: Hagen Smith
Where new pick was originally drafted: 7

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6. Kansas City Royals

New pick: Travis Bazzana | Original pick: Jac Caglianone
Where new pick was originally drafted: 1

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7. St. Louis Cardinals

New pick: Cam Smith | Original pick: JJ Wetherholt
Where new pick was originally drafted: 14

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8. Los Angeles Angels

New pick: Bryce Rainer | Original pick: Christian Moore
Where new pick was originally drafted: 11

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9. Pittsburgh Pirates

New pick: Hagen Smith | Original pick: Konnor Griffin
Where new pick was originally drafted: 5

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10. Washington Nationals

New pick: Charlie Condon | Original pick: Seaver King
Where new pick was originally drafted: 3

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Other notable players from 2024: Slade Caldwell, Theo Gillen, Braden Montgomery

Best draft: Kansas City Royals. It’s way too early to do anything but guess here, but the Royals are obviously ecstatic getting Caglianone with the sixth overall selection. He has a chance to be the power hitter from this draft and a potential star to line up next to Bobby Witt Jr. Second-round high school lefty David Shields has impressed early in Single-A, while a couple of pitchers out of the University of Tennessee, Drew Bream and A.J. Causey, could advance quickly.

Top pick that hasn’t worked out: Charlie Condon. As with Crews, we need to give Condon a lot more time, but after one of the most dominant seasons in NCAA history at Georgia (.433, 37 HRs), Condon’s initial returns in pro ball have raised concerns — especially given what Caglianone and Kurtz have done to already reach the majors. In 25 games in High-A after getting drafted, Condon hit .180 with 34 strikeouts and four walks. He then fractured his wrist in spring training. He’s back at High-A Spokane and has hit better (.333/.457/.457) and at least improved his walk and strikeout rates (22 walks, 24 strikeouts). Still, High-A isn’t much of a challenge for an SEC performer like Condon, so the Rockies will need to get a read on him in Double-A.

Overview: We did a lot of moving around in the top 10 redraft, but this already looks like one of the most interesting drafts in a long time. Really, you could already make the case for five or six different players now going first, including Bazzana, the actual top overall pick.

Would Caglianone really go No. 1? Maybe not, given the bias against first basemen going first overall, but we’re at a moment when it appears Caglianone might have the highest ceiling of any player given his plus-plus-plus power potential. Kansas City is trying Caglianone in right field, and that is a work in progress, but it would be a huge boon to the Royals if it did work out, as they’re desperate for outfield power and Vinnie Pasquantino is locked in at first base. Caglianone’s high chase rate remains an issue, but he has already been improving from his college days and is striking out just 20% of the time in the majors (compared to 32% for Kurtz, who has tapped into more power so far than Caglianone).

Griffin is also an exciting player to watch. A two-way talent from a Mississippi high school where he was the national player of the year, Griffin had perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft and is showing that so far, hitting .344/.408/.552 in Single-A, already earning a promotion to High-A and looking good at shortstop so far.

As for Bazzana, he’s currently out because of an oblique strain, but his pro numbers have been underwhelming, hitting .238 last year in 27 games at High-A and .252 with 39 strikeouts in 33 games so far in Double-A this year. At the same level, Wetherholt has hit .322 with more walks than strikeouts and has the defensive chops to remain in the infield (most likely at second base, especially with Masyn Winn entrenched at shortstop in St. Louis) while Bazzana might end up moving from second base to left field.

Still, with Smith already performing for the Astros after the Cubs traded him in the Kyle Tucker deal and Kurtz producing for the A’s, plus Caglianone and Moore in the majors as well, the early returns from this draft look excellent. Besides Griffin, some of the other high school selections such as Rainer, Gillen and Caldwell look promising.

Although the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers may never stop celebrating, the NHL offseason has begun.

The past several days have included Jonathan Toews pledging to sign with the Winnipeg Jets once free agency begins, as well as a flurry of re-signings, and a trade between the Chicago Blackhawks and Seattle Kraken, with Andre Burakovsky headed to the Second City.

On Friday and Saturday of this week, the NHL draft will take place in Los Angeles, including seven rounds of prospect selections and (most likely) a handful of franchise-altering trades. Then on Tuesday, July 1, free agency officially begins.

To help make sense of it all, our reporters reached out to sources in front offices around the league for their takes on the draft, trades and the free agent class.

So ahead of this week’s flurry of action, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski deliver the latest buzz around the NHL:

Schaefer earned perspective through tragedy

Matthew Schaefer has been the projected first overall pick in this year’s draft for months, projected to land with the New York Islanders, who hold the first pick on Friday. But the Erie Otters defenseman isn’t all that concerned about where he ultimately lands.

No pressure. No stress. It’s all about enjoying the journey — a lesson Schaefer has learned the hard way.

“I’ve been through a lot,” he said recently. And that’s putting it mildly.

Schaefer lost his billet mother in late 2023. Two months later, his own mother died after a long battle with cancer. Then, during the 2025 World Junior Championship, Otters owner Jim Waters — with whom Schaefer was close — also passed away. During that same event, Schaefer broke his collarbone and missed the remainder of his season in Erie.

That would be a debilitating 12 months for anyone to endure, let alone a 17-year-old on the cusp of achieving his life-long dream of playing in the NHL. Schaefer has an infectiously upbeat attitude to it all, though. What others might view as adversity he sees as almost a superpower, and it’s helped him cope with the demands of being a highly touted prospect.

“There’s a lot worse things that can happen in life [than not being picked No. 1],” he said. “Going through injuries are super easy. I feel like when I was younger and I stubbed my toe, I probably would have thought the world was ending, but going through everything, there’s so much worse things that can happen in life. And honestly, you just gotta take the opportunities. You gotta work as hard as you can. I think just being a good person goes such a long way.”

Schaefer is quick-witted and personable, admirably earnest and entirely genuine. He’s done charity work with other kids experiencing grief-related challenges, and plans to do more volunteering with the hospital where his mother received treatment. It’s not for show, either.

Schaefer readily admits he enjoys meeting new people, and hearing their stories.

“I personally love helping people,” he said. “Respecting people, [treating them] how you’d like to be treated. Holding a door for someone, it goes such a long way. I think each and every day I just want to have a positive mindset. My mindset has changed a lot with everything. Seeing what my mom went through, having a smile on her face with cancer and everything trying to bring her down, but she wouldn’t let it bring her down. Wish I was as tough as her.”

Schaefer believes that mom will be watching when the draft takes place, and that maybe along the way she’s even suited up again in her own signature role that shaped him into the player he is today.

“My mom used to go in net and put on the equipment, and I’d shoot on her,” he recalled. “When I’m shooting pucks in the basement, she probably spiritually has the hockey equipment on, trying to save them, and I’m missing the net because she’s probably blocker saving that. There’s a lot of things I’ve learned. I’m definitely a lot stronger now.” — Shilton

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Could the Islanders draft Hagens too?

James Hagens knows how badly some Islanders fans want to see the Hauppauge-born, Long Island native drafted by their team. After all, the 18-year-old Boston College center is one of their own: A kid in the stands cheering on the Islanders during playoff games at Nassau Coliseum who just happened to one day become a top NHL draft prospect.

“I still have the [rally] towel to this day,” he told me during the Stanley Cup Final. “I just remember being a little kid, screaming my lungs off. It was a small building, but it got loud.”

Hagens said he’s had people walk up to him on the golf course back home expressing hope that he’ll be an Islanders draft choice. Driving back from a workout one day, he saw a car with a “Bring Hagens Home” bumper sticker on the back.

“I just tried to duck my head and drive by. Didn’t really try to make eye contact or anything,” Hagens recalled.

He couldn’t help but get his hopes up when he watched the Islanders win the first overall pick in the lottery. There was a time when Hagens looked like he’d go first overall in the 2025 draft. The venerable Bob McKenzie of TSN had him ranked first before the season, with nine of the 10 NHL scouts he surveyed in agreement.

There were a variety of factors for why Hagens slipped a bit this season — a great but not elite freshman season at BC, continuing concerns about this 5-11-ish frame — but chief among them was the emergence of Schaefer as the Islanders’ presumptive No. 1 overall pick.

Yet here was buzz during the Stanley Cup Final that the Islanders might seek to make a draft-day splash by taking Schaefer first overall — and then trading back into the top four again to select Hagens. It’s assumed the San Jose Sharks are drafting forward Michael Misa (Saginaw Spirit) and Hagens hasn’t been linked much with the Chicago Blackhawks at No. 3. Utah has the fourth overall pick, while Nashville is drafting fifth.

What could be in play from the Islanders? Speculation surrounds 25-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov, a restricted free agent due a sizable raise, as well as the Colorado Avalanche‘s first-round pick in 2026 that the Avs can defer to 2027. But that’s just a starting point for acquiring a top-five pick and, most importantly, a hometown offensive star.

Isles GM Mathieu Darche has talked about his charges becoming an “attacking” team. Co-owner John Collins has discussed the necessity for the franchise to make “deeper connections” with the Long Island hockey community. Hagens would seem to address both needs, either at No. 1 — or if the Islanders can hit a two-fer in the draft. — Wyshynski

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Clock is ticking on Tavares in Toronto

Unless Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs undergo seriously successful couples counselling in the next week, it’s unlikely the winger will be back in blue and white this fall. That ending has been projected for months, and frankly reflects some poor asset management by the Leafs that they’re about to lose this year’s top UFA for nothing.

Is there a possibility of a sign-and-trade, or another suitor interested in acquiring Marner’s rights like Toronto GM Brad Treliving did in acquiring Chris Tanev‘s rights at last year’s draft? Sure. But again … don’t hold your breath.

Where the Leafs’ focus can and should be at this stage is on John Tavares. The latest word is that the two sides aren’t close on an extension, and Toronto can’t beat around the bush too long here. Because there are not many other viable unrestricted free agent centers available.

Sam Bennett appears determined to stay in Florida. Matt Duchene and Jonathan Toews have signed elsewhere. Beyond Tavares, the Leafs are looking at Mikael Granlund, Pius Suter or perhaps Claude Giroux.

There might not be much Toronto can recuperate from the Marner situation. Tavares is the opposite; he wants to be a Leaf and is willing to negotiate.

Dallas just inked Duchene to a four-year, $18 million extension. Yes, there’s some creative accounting in there between the base salary and signing bonuses coupled with Duchene’s continued buyout package from Nashville. However, a $4.5 million average annual value contract for Tavares isn’t looking so bad when you consider the Leafs can not lose a second-line center that just had one of his best seasons ever at age 34 and won’t have much choice on a replacement if Tavares does feel undersold and accept another team’s offer (of which there could be many).

This is a critical juncture for Treliving to handle just right, and considering all the factors at work, there’s no time like the present for Toronto to put its best foot forward and get Tavares back under contract. — Shilton

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Can Panthers bring back the big three, including Marchand?

Having covered the Panthers for multiple rounds in the playoffs, I had hours of conversations about their three key unrestricted free agents: Center Sam Bennett, defenseman Aaron Ekblad and winger/Dairy Queen enthusiast Brad Marchand.

There was a common perception about them before the Panthers hoisted the Cup for a second time, but those have shifted:

1. Bennett, who won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoffs MVP, was a lock to re-sign. While scores of teams might have doubled his base salary ($5 million), Bennett and the Panthers have been confident something would get done. Then, at the Panthers’ victory celebration at E11EVEN in Miami, he quoted “The Wolf of Wall Street” while informing fans he was not leaving while a message that read “8 more years” was displayed behind him.

2. Ekblad, who was drafted first overall by the Panthers in 2014, was iffy to re-sign. He would be coveted as a mobile right-shot defenseman with two Stanley Cups to his credit. The Panthers reportedly made an offer to Ekblad was reportedly rejected last summer, and Florida then explored the trade market for him.

But the winds have shifted here. Speculation in Sunrise was that the Panthers and Ekblad, 29, could swap a high cap number for term, which can be risky with a player that has Ekblad’s injury history. Florida really likes its current defensive depth — Ekblad with Gustav Forsling, and then Seth Jones on a second pairing, where the Panthers believe he’s perfectly cast. Ekblad now expects to stay, but as he cautioned recently: “Things seem to come down to the last minute here.”

3. Marchand took less money in Boston on his last deal for a player of his accomplishments — he made only $8 million in base salary twice in 16 seasons with the Bruins. So the perception was that he would sign with whichever team offered the highest salary with the term he was seeking, rumored to be four years. The Maple Leafs were the focus here, in the ultimate “if you can’t beat’em, have him join’em” moment in NHL history. But suitors ranging from the Washington Capitals to the Utah Mammoth were rumored to be waiting on him.

However, the fit and success he found in Florida appears to have shifted things here, too. Marchand publicly asked GM Bill Zito to give him a contract — at a Dairy Queen, no less — and Zito has said multiple times he expects to be able to sign Bennett, Ekblad and Marchand at a cap hit that allows the Panthers “to bring in other good players.”

For what it’s worth, Marchand was caught on video at the famed Elbo Room in Fort Lauderdale telling a fan that he’s not leaving and then flashing four fingers. But it’s Marchand. He says a lot. — Wyshynski

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Do the Blackhawks have a big surprise in store for Round 1?

Chicago is set to pick at No. 3. After Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa are all but guaranteed to go 1-2, the Blackhawks will be the first fascinating selection of the night.

Do they go center, or wing?

When the scouting combine in Buffalo was wrapping up, it sounded like Chicago was zeroed in on either Moncton Wildcats center Caleb Desnoyers or Brampton Steelheads winger Porter Martone.

Martone’s stock has risen even further since the start of June, and while it may have been the Blackhawks’ inclination to go center, could they pass on Martone at this point? He’s 6-3 and 207 pounds, brings a physical edge, creative playmaking, a great shot and terrific hands. Martone collected 37 goals and 98 points in 57 games last season as the Steelheads’ captain, and scouts rave about his overall ability and potential to excel in the NHL.

Chicago already has one exemplary young center in Connor Bedard. While it’s tempting to add another potential standout at the position, the draw of what Martone could bring might just be too much on which to pass. — Shilton

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Oilers GM baffled by goalie decision

There’s no question that the Edmonton Oilers‘ goaltending was a detriment during their Stanley Cup Final loss to the Florida Panthers.

Stuart Skinner (.861 save percentage, 3.97 goals-against average) was pulled twice and eventually benched for Calvin Pickard (.878, 2.88) in their Game 5 loss, before returning to give up three goals on 23 shots on their Game 6 elimination. Both goalies were below-replacement level in goals saved above expected over their last five playoff games. Meanwhile, Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky chugged along at 3.1 goals saved above expected in his last five games, and did what he needed to do (.919, 2.45) in the Final.

This confuses Oilers GM Stan Bowman about his goaltending, because he argues that Edmonton had the stronger goaltending in their three previous series in the Western Conference. “Darcy Kuemper, Adin Hill and Jake Oettinger, our goalies were better than them in each of those series,” he said. “I think that’s the reason we went to the [Stanley Cup] Final. And then in the Final it flipped.”

The assumption has been that goaltending would be a priority for the Oilers this offseason, especially finding an elite-level netminder that would theoretically prevent embarrassments like having to decide which struggling goalie will start Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. But Bowman said he’s still mulling over any goalie changes for next season, with both Skinner ($2.6 million AAV) and Pickard ($1 million) signed through next season before becoming unrestricted free agents.

Bowman said changes for next season “may involve the goaltending or it could not,” and that there’s a lot of analysis that has to be done in the wake of their second loss to Florida in two seasons before making that decision.

It’s hard to fathom that the Oilers would run it back with the same battery next season, but the options to upgrade are limited. They’ve been linked to John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks, who has a 10-team no-trade list and two years left on his contract at a $6.4 million AAV. New Jersey Devils veteran Jake Allen is the best option in a thin UFA market that also includes Alexandar Georgiev (San Jose), Alex Lyon (Detroit) and Anton Forsberg (Ottawa).

Bowman said that’s part of the decision for the Oilers: Who, exactly, would be an upgrade over Skinner and Pickard in the playoffs?

“It’s not like you just go down to the corner and pick up an elite goalie,” he said. “They’re not just waiting for you to join your team. So how many are there anyways in that group?”

“If you look at the [elite] guys, some of them have had some tough playoffs. So there’s no guarantee in the goaltending world. It’s the most important [position], but it’s also in some instances not why teams win,” the GM said. “So if you have a strong enough team, then there’s been teams that win the Cup without elite goaltending and there’s been teams that won because of their goalie.” — Wyshynski

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Is Nashville really open to anything?

Rumblings about the Nashville Predators continue to grow. The Predators are picking at No. 5, but are not in the typical position a team would be in with that selection.

Nashville wants to compete now. And they have a piece of capital to wield in trying to land an NHL player now from a team that might be closer to that re-tooling stage and eyeing a top prospect for their pool.

If there were to be a blockbuster happening in the first round, it feels like Nashville would be involved.

Specifically, the Preds could use a viable defenseman to shore up the blue line alongside Roman Josi. And we know from recent offseasons that GM Barry Trotz is willing and able to go all-in as necessary and get creative.

If Trotz believes in Nashville’s opportunity to rebound from a rough 2024-25 with a winning year ahead then he seems likely to consider a fair deal for an NHL-level skater. — Shilton