Sean Bell: What the military shake-up in Ukraine means for the war
After months of speculation about a rift with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has been removed from his post, with the president saying it was “time for renewal”.
Gen Zaluzhnyi is seen as a national hero by many Ukrainians so why has he been replaced, and will this change Ukraine’s fortunes in the war with Russia?
It is not unusual for military leadership to be rotated during an extended period of combat operations. Gen Zaluzhnyi is considered to have been instrumental in resisting the Russian invasion and is an immensely popular figure in Ukraine.
But, military leadership requires a broad spectrum of personal attributes, and popularity is not high on the list. Wartime requires difficult decisions to be made, often at great sacrifice by those under command, placing a very heavy burden on senior commanders. Even the most hardened commanders eventually start to feel the strain.
Ukraine is the David to Russia’s superpower goliath, so Gen Zaluzhnyi was quick to embrace Western military tactics and support to avoid conventional Soviet-era attritional warfare.
The West provided high-tech precision weapons, modern battle tanks and missiles, plus combat training for Ukraine’s forces; however, the much anticipated 2023 “spring” counter offensive failed to achieve its objectives.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and former commander in chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
With the benefit of hindsight, without a credible combat air capability – modern fighter jets – Ukraine was always going to struggle. The Ukrainians fought bravely, but a war of attrition beckoned, and Gen Zaluzhnyi knew that limited resources had to be preserved.
With a static frontline and waning Western support, political pressure grew to make progress. This created tensions between the military and political leadership, with Gen Zaluzhnyi wary of mounting continued offensive action without Western military support.
Ukraine needed more weapons to prevail which would take time – time that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy judged Ukraine did not have.
The final straw appears to have been reached in November last year when – in a long essay and interview in The Economist magazine – Gen Zaluzhnyi said the war had reached a stalemate.
Whatever the battlefield realities, President Zelenskyy needed to breed confidence in Western allies that victory remained possible, if military equipment and ammunition was forthcoming. Recognising that Ukraine was in a stalemate, with Russia still occupying 20% of Ukraine’s territory, was unhelpful.
So, President Zelenskyy decided on a change of approach and strategy.
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Kyiv hit by missile and drone strikes
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However, in the circumstances, the decision to replace the popular head of the Ukrainian military will have carried risk. Military coups occur when the military lose faith with their political masters, and it is evident that President Zelenskyy and Gen Zaluzhnyi have very different views about the next stage of the war.
But, after weeks of rumours, eventually a smooth transition has been agreed.
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The new head of Ukraine’s armed forces is 58-year old Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, an older and even more battle-hardened officer. But, since Gen Syrskyi will inherit the same military shortcomings that challenged his predecessor, it is hard to see how this change will have a significant impact on the battlefield.
And, Gen Syrskyi has less experience of the Western military doctrine that underpins most Western hi-tech munitions.
As for Zaluzhnyi, analysts have long speculated about whether he could one day emerge as a political rival to President Zelenskyy in future elections. General Eisenhower – the supreme commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in Europe in the Second World War – had no apparent political ambitions at the end of the war, yet became the 34th president of the US just a few years later.
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Can Ukraine win the war against Russia?
However, at this stage it looks unlikely that Gen Zaluzhnyi would seek political office until the war with Russia is over.
Gen Zaluzhnyy has proven a popular and capable wartime leader and will be a very hard act to follow. But, sometimes a change brings fresh perspectives and opportunities, and President Zelenskyy will be hoping that this change heralds a change of fortunes for Ukraine’s war with Russia.
However, time is not on President Zelenskyy’s side, and he will probably need rather more than a change in military leadership to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favour.
This is the highest stakes diplomacy via social media.
The American president just posted on his Truth Social platform: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding.
“He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers.
“Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Israel-Iran live: Trump says US knows where Iran’s supreme leader is ‘hiding’
It was followed minutes later by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
In real-time, we are witnessing Donald Trump’s extreme version of maximum pressure diplomacy.
He’d probably call it the ‘art of the deal’, but bunker busters are the tool, and it comes with such huge consequences, intended and unintended, known and unknown.
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Nuclear sites targeted in Iran
There is intentional ambiguity in the president’s messaging. His assumption is that he can apply his ‘art of the deal’ strategy to a deeply ideological geopolitical challenge.
It’s all playing out publicly. Overnight, the New York Times, via two of its best-sourced reporters, had been told that Mr Trump is weighing whether to use B-2 aircraft to drop bunker-busting bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, Axios was reporting that a meeting is possible between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
The reporting came just as Mr Trump warned “everyone in Tehran to evacuate”. The nuclear sites being threatened with bunker busters are not in Tehran, but Trump’s words are designed to stoke tension, to confuse and to apply intense pressure.
His actions are too. He left the G7 in Canada early and asked his teams to gather in the White House Situation Room.
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This is a game of smoke, mirrors, brinkmanship and – maybe – bluff. In Tehran, what’s left of the leadership is watching and reading closely as they consider what’s next.
Maybe the Supreme Leader and his regime’s days are numbered. Things remain very unpredictable.
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From history, though, regime change, even when it comes with a plan – and there is certainly not one here, spells civil war and from that comes a refugee crisis.
These are truly tense and chaotic times.
World
Ukraine war: 14 killed as Russian missile and drone attacks strike Kyiv – including American citizen
Russian missile and drone attacks have killed 14 people in Kyiv overnight, according to Ukrainian officials.
A 62-year-old US citizen who suffered shrapnel wounds is among the dead.
At least 99 others were wounded in strikes that hollowed out a residential building and destroyed dozens of apartments.
Pic: AP
Emergency workers were at the scene to rescue people from under the rubble.
Images show a firefighter was among those hurt, with injured residents evacuated from their homes.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attack as “one of the most terrifying attacks on Kyiv” – and said Russian forces had fired 440 drones and 32 missiles as civilians slept in their homes.
“[Putin] wants the war to go on,” he said. “It is troubling when the powerful of this world turn a blind eye to it.”
Pic: AP
Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said 27 locations across the capital have been hit – including educational institutions and critical infrastructure.
He claimed the attack, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, was one of the largest on the capital since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Drones swarmed over the city, with an air raid alert remaining in force for seven hours.
One person was killed and 17 others injured as a result of separate Russian drone strikes in the port city of Odesa.
Pic: Reuters
It comes as the G7 summit in Canada continues, which Ukraine’s leader is expected to attend.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy was due to hold talks with Donald Trump – but the president has announced he is unexpectedly returning to Washington because of tensions in the Middle East.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says Moscow’s decision to attack Kyiv during the summit is a signal of disrespect to the US.
Moscow has launched a record number of drones and missiles in recent weeks, and says the attacks are in retaliation for a Ukrainian operation that targeted warplanes in airbases deep within Russian territory.
Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko says fires broke out in two of the city’s districts as a result of debris from drones shot down by the nation’s air defences.
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Pic: AP
On X, Ukraine’s foreign ministry wrote: “Russia’s campaign of terror against civilians continues. Its war against Ukraine escalates with increased brutality.
“The only way to stop Russia is tighter pressure – through sanctions, more defence support for Ukraine, and limiting Russia’s ability to keep sowing war.”
Olena Lapyshnak, who lived in one of the destroyed buildings, said: “It’s horrible, it’s scary, in one moment there is no life. I can only curse the Russians, that’s all I can say. They shouldn’t exist in this world.”
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