Sean Bell: What the military shake-up in Ukraine means for the war
After months of speculation about a rift with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has been removed from his post, with the president saying it was “time for renewal”.
Gen Zaluzhnyi is seen as a national hero by many Ukrainians – so why has he been replaced, and will this change Ukraine’s fortunes in the war with Russia?
It is not unusual for military leadership to be rotated during an extended period of combat operations. Gen Zaluzhnyi is considered to have been instrumental in resisting the Russian invasion and is an immensely popular figure in Ukraine.
But, military leadership requires a broad spectrum of personal attributes, and popularity is not high on the list.
Wartime requires difficult decisions to be made, often at great sacrifice by those under command, placing a very heavy burden on senior commanders. Even the most hardened commanders eventually start to feel the strain.
Ukraine is the David to Russia’s superpower goliath, so Gen Zaluzhnyi was quick to embrace Western military tactics and support to avoid conventional Soviet-era attritional warfare.
The West provided high-tech precision weapons, modern battle tanks and missiles, plus combat training for Ukraine’s forces; however, the much anticipated 2023 “spring” counteroffensive failed to achieve its objectives.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and former commander in chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
With the benefit of hindsight, without a credible combat air capability – modern fighter jets – Ukraine was always going to struggle.
The Ukrainians fought bravely, but a war of attrition beckoned, and Gen Zaluzhnyi knew that limited resources had to be preserved.
With a static frontline and waning Western support, political pressure grew to make progress. This created tensions between the military and political leadership, with Gen Zaluzhnyi wary of mounting continued offensive action without Western military support.
Ukraine needed more weapons to prevail which would take time – time that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy judged Ukraine did not have.
The final straw appears to have been reached in November last year when – in a long essay and interview in The Economist magazine – Gen Zaluzhnyi said the war had reached a stalemate.
Whatever the battlefield realities, President Zelenskyy needed to breed confidence in Western allies that victory remained possible, if military equipment and ammunition were forthcoming.
Recognising that Ukraine was in a stalemate, with Russia still occupying 20% of Ukraine’s territory, was unhelpful.
So, President Zelenskyy decided on a change of approach and strategy.
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Kyiv hit by missile and drone strikes
However, in the circumstances, the decision to replace the popular head of the Ukrainian military will have carried risk.
Military coups occur when the military loses faith with their political masters, and it is evident that President Zelenskyy and Gen Zaluzhnyi have very different views about the next stage of the war.
But, after weeks of rumours, eventually a smooth transition has been agreed.
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The new head of Ukraine’s armed forces is 58-year-old Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, an older and even more battle-hardened officer.
But, since Gen Syrskyi will inherit the same military shortcomings that challenged his predecessor, it is hard to see how this change will have a significant impact on the battlefield.
Gen Syrskyi also has less experience with Western military doctrine that underpins most Western hi-tech munitions.
As for Zaluzhnyi, analysts have long speculated about whether he could one day emerge as a political rival to President Zelenskyy in future elections.
General Eisenhower – the supreme commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in Europe in the Second World War – had no apparent political ambitions at the end of the war, yet became the 34th president of the US just a few years later.
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Can Ukraine win the war against Russia?
However, at this stage, it looks unlikely that Gen Zaluzhnyi would seek political office until the war with Russia is over.
Gen Zaluzhnyi has proven a popular and capable wartime leader and will be a very hard act to follow.
But, sometimes a change brings fresh perspectives and opportunities, and President Zelenskyy will be hoping that this change heralds a change of fortunes for Ukraine’s war with Russia.
However, time is not on President Zelenskyy’s side, and he will probably need rather more than a change in military leadership to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favour.
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.
It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.
Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.
Ronen Bar (left), director of Israel’s security agency, and David Barnea (right), head of Mossad, at a ceremony marking the 7 October Hamas attack. File pic: Reuters
The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.
A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.
Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.
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Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.
Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.
Pope Francis has been honoured with America’s highest civilian award by President Joe Biden, who has described the pontiff as “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world”.
It is the first time Mr Biden, 82, has given the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction during his four years in office.
In a statement, the White House said the award is “presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world peace, or other significant societal, public or private endeavours”.
Mr Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to Pope Francis, 88, in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency. But the president cancelled his visit to monitor the California wildfires.
The White House said Mr Biden bestowed the award during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world.
President Joe Biden presented Bono with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Pic: AP
Denzel Washington was also recognised. Pic: AP
Michael J Fox was bestowed with the honour. Pic: AP
The award can be presented with or without distinction.
Mr Biden presented the medal of freedom – without distinction – on 5 January to several people including fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, humanitarian and U2 singer Bono, fashion designer Ralph Lauren and actors Michael J Fox and Denzel Washington.
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Mr Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognised when he was vice president by then president Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago.
Barack Obama presented Joe Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction in 2017. File pic: AP
The citation for the pope’s honour said his “mission of serving the poor has never ceased”.
“A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths,” it added.
Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
The injured pair are now in Kyiv and communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s domestic intelligence agency, he said.
Ukrainian special forces and paratroopers captured the North Koreans, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.
“As with all prisoners of war, these two North Korean soldiers are receiving the necessary medical assistance,” he said.
“I have instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to grant journalists access to these prisoners.
“The world needs to know the truth about what is happening.”
Mr Zelenskyy said capturing the soldiers alive was “not easy”. He also claimed Russian and North Korean forces fighting in Kursk have tried to conceal the presence of North Korean soldiers, including by killing wounded comrades on the battlefield to avoid their capture and interrogation by Ukraine.
The post included images of the two men – one with a bandage around his jaw and the other around both hands and wrists – and what appeared to be a Russian military document.
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Ukrainian drone targets Kursk soldiers
Ukraine’s security service SBU on Saturday provided further details.
It said one of those detained had no documents at all, while the other had been carrying a Russian military ID card in the name of a man from Tuva, a Russian region bordering Mongolia.
“The prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, so communication with them takes place through Korean translators in cooperation with South Korean intelligence,” a statement said.
One of the soldiers claimed he had been told he was going to Russia for training, rather than to fight against Ukraine, according to the SBU.
The agency added both men are being provided with medical care in line with the Geneva Conventions, and investigated “in cooperation with South Korean intelligence”.
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North Korean regular troops entered the war on Russia’s side in October, according to Ukraine and its Western allies.
US, South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence assessments suggest up to 12,000 North Korean combat troops have been sent by Pyongyang under a pact with Moscow.
They believe North Korea has also been supplying Russia with vast quantities of artillery shells.
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