It is clearly bad for NATO security that the potential next president of the United States has said he would encourage attacks on allies that fail to meet a core defence spending target.
But it is surely as much – or even greater – a challenge for the alliance that two-thirds of its 31 member states still have not increased the amount of national income dedicated to defence to a minimum of 2% (and experts deem that level to be woefully inadequate).
This is despite Russia’s war in Ukraine, Iran-linked conflict in the Middle East and the risk posed by an increasingly powerful China.
Donald Trump revived alarm bells across NATO capitals over the weekend when he claimed during a campaign rally that a leader “of a big country” once said to him “if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?”
Mr Trump, who is the frontrunner to be the Republican candidate for president, said he responded by warning: “You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. Yes, let’s say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”
If his remarks are to be taken at face value, then some comfort may be drawn from a quick glance at a map of Europe. It will show that the nations most vulnerable to any Russian invasion – the Baltic states and Poland – all comfortably pass the NATO spending test.
Yet, comments made by Mr Trump when he was commander-in-chief repeatedly raised doubts as to whether he would go to war with Moscow whichever NATO ally is targeted.
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This stance fundamentally eroded the alliance’s founding principle of collective defence – an attack on one is an attack on all.
But each NATO ally that fails to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence is just as culpable of undermining the deterrent effect of Article 5.
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1:00
‘I would encourage them to do whatever they want’
Which countries are falling short?
Europe’s biggest economic power – Germany – remains one of the main offenders even though all allies pledged at a summit led by then prime minister David Cameron in Wales back in 2014 to “move towards” the 2% baseline within a decade – ie by this year.
Even nuclear-armed France is falling short, along with Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, and the list goes on.
Britain should not rest easy.
It just about meets the spending pledge – though official NATO data shows the percentage spent on defence has dropped rather than risen over the past nine years from 2.14% in 2014 to an estimated 2.07% in 2023 despite the escalating threats.
In addition, a damning report by MPs earlier this month found the UK military’s readiness for war to be “in doubt”, with limited stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, and more service personnel leaving the armed forces than being recruited.
Trump could still halt meaningful support to allies
Mr Trump’s primary criticism about NATO is over what he rightly sees as freeloading by a majority of allies that have for decades relied on the protective shield provided by the much more powerful US military rather than ensuring their own defences are credible and capable.
It was a stick he beat the alliance with during his four years as president, dangling the threat of withdrawing the US from NATO – a move that would deal a near-death blow to an organisation created after the Second World War as the cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security.
Image: Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in 2019. Pic: Reuters
Last December, legislation was passed in Washington that prevents a sitting president from unilaterally exiting the alliance without the approval of lawmakers.
While this means Mr Trump may not physically be able to make good on such a threat should he win a second term, he could still halt meaningful support to allies, which would be almost as damaging.
US will remain ‘strong and committed NATO ally’, alliance chief says
Responding to his latest anti-NATO outburst, Jens Stoltenberg, the veteran alliance chief, who navigated allies through the first Trump presidency, issued an unusually blunt retort.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said. “I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO ally.”
It is a sentiment all allies in Europe will be clinging to.
But they would be far better off focusing their energy on fixing the problems closer to home by urgently rebuilding credible military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support.
There are no plans for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to meet in person in the near future, according to a White House official.
The US leader later shed further light on the issue when asked why his planned summit in Hungary had been put on hold.
He said he did not want to have a wasted meeting, telling reporters in the Oval Office he had not made a determination about the talks he had wanted to hold.
The US leader suggested it was possible it could happen within a fortnight, though no date was set.
However, it appears that’s now off the table – and there are fears the meeting could be shelved altogether due to Russia‘s rigid stance on the Ukraine war.
The White House official, speaking to Sky’s US partner network NBC, said secretary of state Marco Rubio and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov had spoken on Tuesday.
The call was described as “productive” but the official added there was no plan for the presidents to meet “in the immediate future”.
The last Trump-Putin meeting was in Alaska in August, but it ended without any meaningful progress towards a ceasefire.
The Budapest plan was announced shortly before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Washington last Friday to try to get approval for long-range Tomahawk missiles.
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3:42
Why Tomahawks are off the table
Mr Zelenskyy accused the Russian leader of acting out of fear Ukraine could get the green light and the ability to hit targets far deeper into Russia.
In his nightly address on Tuesday, he said Russia “almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy” after it became clear Mr Trump had backed away from any decision on the Tomahawks.
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45:28
Professor Michael Clarke answers your questions on the Ukraine war.
Two US officials told Reuters that plans for the Budapest meeting had stalled over Russia’s insistence any peace deal must give it control of all of the Donbas region.
Those terms are said to have been reiterated over the weekend in a private communique known as a “no paper”.
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Ukraine and European nations issued a joint statement on Tuesday insisting “international borders must not be changed by force” and accusing Russia of “stalling tactics”.
But, in an apparent effort to keep the US leader onside, it added: “We strongly support President Trump’s position that the fighting should stop immediately, and that the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.”
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1:59
Trump: ‘We can end this war quickly’
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave the impression his country was in no rush to arrange another Trump-Putin meeting, saying on Tuesday “preparation is needed, serious preparation”.
Such talk is likely to increase concerns Russia does not want to stop fighting and is “playing” President Trump – all while continuing to launch drone barrages at Ukrainian cities.
Russia currently holds about a fifth of Ukraine after its invasion in February in 2022. It also annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
Meanwhile, NATO’s secretary general Mark Rutte is travelling to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday.
He will “discuss various aspects related to NATO’s support to Ukraine and to the US-led efforts towards lasting peace”, an official for the alliance said.
With Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s meeting in Budapest “on hold” for now, US correspondents Martha Kelner and Mark Stone unpick the US president’s latest position on the war in Ukraine.
Martha also chats to Huffington Post journalist SV Dáte about his run-in with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
As shows of diplomatic power go, this was a pretty good one. Here, in an industrial complex in the south of Israel that is rapidly being repurposed into a joint operations centre, America is taking centre stage.
A group walks in. At the centre is US Vice President JD Vance, flanked by omni-envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s unofficial emissary to the Middle East and official son-in-law.
And as if to prove just how much heft there is on show, the fourth person to walk in is Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the US’s Central Command, in charge of a bewildering number of troops and the most powerful foreign military leader in the Middle East. But in this company, he barely said a word.
Image: JD Vance. Pic: Reuters
Mr Vance was composed, enthusiastic and conciliatory. During our drive down to the complex, near the town of Kirya Gat, we had read the latest statement from Donald Trump, released on the social media platform that he owns, threatening swingeing repercussions against Hamas. “FAST, FURIOUS AND BRUTAL,” he had written.
So often the echo of the president’s words, Mr Vance struck a more nuanced tone. Yes, he said that Hamas could end up being “obliterated”, but he also offered the group some support. Since the ceasefire was signed, Hamas has repeatedly said that it cannot easily recover the bodies of all the dead hostages. Mr Vance agrees.
“This is difficult. This is not going to happen overnight,” he said. “Some of these hostages are buried under thousands of pounds of rubble. Some of the hostages, nobody even knows where they are.”
He said it would have been unwise to set a deadline, insisting “we’ve got to be a little bit flexible” and even accused Israel, along with Gulf Arab states, of “a certain amount of impatience with Hamas”.
Image: (L-R) JD Vance, US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. Pic: Reuters
I asked him if his visit was as a direct result of Israel’s actions on Sunday, responding to the deaths of two soldiers with attacks that killed dozens of Palestinians.
No, said Mr Vance, it had “nothing to do with events in the past 48 hours”. Many will remain dubious – this is his first visit to Israel as vice president, and, if the timing really was coincidental, it was very fortuitous.
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2:50
Ceasefire in fragile state
Then I asked him about the future of Gaza, about whether there really could be no safeguards that Palestinians would have a significant role in the future of the enclave.
I didn’t expect a long answer – and I certainly didn’t expect him to start by saying “I don’t know the answer to that question” – but that’s what we got.
“I think that what is so cool, what’s so amazing about what these guys have done, is that we’re creating a governance structure that is very flexible to what happens on the ground in the future. We need to reconstitute Gaza. We need to reconstruct Gaza,” he said.
“We need to make sure that both the Palestinians living in Gaza but also the Israelis are able to live in some measure of security and stability. We’re doing all of those things simultaneously. And then I think once we’ve got to a point where both the Gazans and our Israeli friends can have some measure of security, then we’ll worry about what the long-term governance of Gaza is.”
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0:29
Trump says ceasefire still in place
While the words are different, and the tone is less didactic, the theme is familiar. The short-term gain is peace, while the long-term plan remains largely unaddressed and unformulated.
Work is being done on that front. Diplomatic sources tell me that the effort behind the scenes is now frenetic and wide-ranging, encompassing countries from across the region, but also way beyond.
But the questions they face are towering – who pays, who sets the rules, who enforces law, whose soldiers are the peacekeepers and what happens to all the displaced Gazans?
None of this will be easy.
Mr Vance, like Mr Trump, exudes confidence, and it has clearly inspired other leaders and their nations.
Few can doubt that Mr Trump’s iron-clad self-confidence has given life and momentum to this deal.
But that isn’t enough.
The diplomats, planners and, yes, the politicians have a lot to do.