NATO would be better off urgently rebuilding military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support
It is clearly bad for NATO security that the potential next president of the United States has said he would encourage attacks on allies that fail to meet a core defence spending target.
But it is surely as much – or even greater – a challenge for the alliance that two-thirds of its 31 member states still have not increased the amount of national income dedicated to defence to a minimum of 2% (and experts deem that level to be woefully inadequate).
This is despite Russia’s war in Ukraine, Iran-linked conflict in the Middle East and the risk posed by an increasingly powerful China.
Donald Trump revived alarm bells across NATO capitals over the weekend when he claimed during a campaign rally that a leader “of a big country” once said to him “if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?”
Mr Trump, who is the frontrunner to be the Republican candidate for president, said he responded by warning: “You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. Yes, let’s say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”
If his remarks are to be taken at face value, then some comfort may be drawn from a quick glance at a map of Europe. It will show that the nations most vulnerable to any Russian invasion – the Baltic states and Poland – all comfortably pass the NATO spending test.
Yet, comments made by Mr Trump when he was commander-in-chief repeatedly raised doubts as to whether he would go to war with Moscow whichever NATO ally is targeted.
This stance fundamentally eroded the alliance’s founding principle of collective defence – an attack on one is an attack on all.
But each NATO ally that fails to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence is just as culpable of undermining the deterrent effect of Article 5.
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‘I would encourage them to do whatever they want’
Which countries are falling short?
Europe’s biggest economic power – Germany – remains one of the main offenders even though all allies pledged at a summit led by then prime minister David Cameron in Wales back in 2014 to “move towards” the 2% baseline within a decade – ie by this year.
Even nuclear-armed France is falling short, along with Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, and the list goes on.
Britain should not rest easy.
It just about meets the spending pledge – though official NATO data shows the percentage spent on defence has dropped rather than risen over the past nine years from 2.14% in 2014 to an estimated 2.07% in 2023 despite the escalating threats.
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In addition, a damning report by MPs earlier this month found the UK military’s readiness for war to be “in doubt”, with limited stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, and more service personnel leaving the armed forces than being recruited.
Trump could still halt meaningful support to allies
Mr Trump’s primary criticism about NATO is over what he rightly sees as freeloading by a majority of allies that have for decades relied on the protective shield provided by the much more powerful US military rather than ensuring their own defences are credible and capable.
It was a stick he beat the alliance with during his four years as president, dangling the threat of withdrawing the US from NATO – a move that would deal a near-death blow to an organisation created after the Second World War as the cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security.
Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in 2019. Pic: Reuters
Last December, legislation was passed in Washington that prevents a sitting president from unilaterally exiting the alliance without the approval of lawmakers.
While this means Mr Trump may not physically be able to make good on such a threat should he win a second term, he could still halt meaningful support to allies, which would be almost as damaging.
US will remain ‘strong and committed NATO ally’, alliance chief says
Responding to his latest anti-NATO outburst, Jens Stoltenberg, the veteran alliance chief, who navigated allies through the first Trump presidency, issued an unusually blunt retort.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said. “I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO ally.”
It is a sentiment all allies in Europe will be clinging to.
But they would be far better off focusing their energy on fixing the problems closer to home by urgently rebuilding credible military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support.
Donald Trump has said he is considering “taking away” the US citizenship of actress and comedian Rosie O’Donnell, despite a Supreme Court ruling that expressly prohibits a government from doing so.
In a post on Truth Social on Saturday, the US president said: “Because of the fact that Rosie O’Donnell is not in the best interests of our Great Country, I am giving serious consideration to taking away her Citizenship.”
He also labelled O’Donnell, who has moved to Ireland, as a “threat to humanity” and said she should “remain in the wonderful country of Ireland, if they want her”.
O’Donnell responded on Instagram by posting a photograph of Mr Trump with Jeffrey Epstein.
“You are everything that is wrong with America and I’m everything you hate about what’s still right with it,” she wrote in the caption.
“I’m not yours to silence. I never was.”
Rosie O’Donnell moved to Ireland after Donald Trump secured a second term. Pic: AP
O’Donnell moved to Ireland with her 12-year-old son in January after Mr Trump had secured a second term.
She has said she’s in the process of obtaining Irish citizenship based on family lineage and that she would only return to the US “when it is safe for all citizens to have equal rights there in America”.
O’Donnell and the US president have criticised each other publicly for years, in an often-bitter back-and-forth that predates Mr Trump’s move into politics.
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This is just the latest threat by the president to revoke the citizenship of someone he has disagreed with, most recently his former ally Elon Musk.
But the two situations are different as while Musk was born in South Africa, O’Donnell was born in the US and has a constitutional right to American citizenship.
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Amanda Frost, a law professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, said the Supreme Court ruled in a 1967 case that the fourteenth amendment of the constitution prevents the government from taking away citizenship.
“The president has no authority to take away the citizenship of a native-born US citizen,” he added.
“In short, we are nation founded on the principle that the people choose the government; the government cannot choose the people.”
A farmer who fell from a greenhouse roof during an anti-immigrant raid at a licensed cannabis facility in California this week has died of his injuries.
Jaime Alanis, 57, is the first person to die as a result of Donald Trump’s Immigration Compliance and Enforcement (ICE) raids.
His niece, Yesenia Duran, posted on the fundraising site GoFundMe to say her uncle was his family’s only provider and he had been sending his earnings back to his wife and daughter in Mexico.
The United Food Workers said Mr Alanis had worked on the farm for 10 years.
“These violent and cruel federal actions terrorise American communities, disrupt the American food supply chain, threaten lives and separate families,” the union said in a recent statement on X.
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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said it executed criminal search warrants at Glass House Farms facilities on Thursday.
Mr Alanis called family to say he was hiding and possibly fleeing agents before he fell around 30ft (9m) from the roof and broke his neck, according to information from family, hospital and government sources.
Agents arrested 200 people suspected of being in the country illegally and identified at least 10 immigrant children on the sites, the DHS said in a statement.
Mr Alanis was not among them, the agency said.
“This man was not in and has not been in CBP (Customs and Border Protection) or ICE custody,” DHS assistant secretary for public affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.
“Although he was not being pursued by law enforcement, this individual climbed up to the roof of a greenhouse and fell 30ft. CBP immediately called a medivac to the scene to get him care as quickly as possible.”
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Four US citizens were arrested during the incident for allegedly “assaulting or resisting officers”, the DHS said, and authorities were offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of a person suspected of firing a gun at federal agents.
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In a statement, Glass House, a licensed Cannabis grower, said immigration agents had valid warrants. It said workers were detained and it is helping provide them with legal representation.
“Glass House has never knowingly violated applicable hiring practices and does not and has never employed minors,” it added.
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