NATO would be better off urgently rebuilding military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support
It is clearly bad for NATO security that the potential next president of the United States has said he would encourage attacks on allies that fail to meet a core defence spending target.
But it is surely as much – or even greater – a challenge for the alliance that two-thirds of its 31 member states still have not increased the amount of national income dedicated to defence to a minimum of 2% (and experts deem that level to be woefully inadequate).
This is despite Russia’s war in Ukraine, Iran-linked conflict in the Middle East and the risk posed by an increasingly powerful China.
Donald Trump revived alarm bells across NATO capitals over the weekend when he claimed during a campaign rally that a leader “of a big country” once said to him “if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?”
Mr Trump, who is the frontrunner to be the Republican candidate for president, said he responded by warning: “You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. Yes, let’s say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”
If his remarks are to be taken at face value, then some comfort may be drawn from a quick glance at a map of Europe. It will show that the nations most vulnerable to any Russian invasion – the Baltic states and Poland – all comfortably pass the NATO spending test.
Yet, comments made by Mr Trump when he was commander-in-chief repeatedly raised doubts as to whether he would go to war with Moscow whichever NATO ally is targeted.
This stance fundamentally eroded the alliance’s founding principle of collective defence – an attack on one is an attack on all.
But each NATO ally that fails to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence is just as culpable of undermining the deterrent effect of Article 5.
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‘I would encourage them to do whatever they want’
Which countries are falling short?
Europe’s biggest economic power – Germany – remains one of the main offenders even though all allies pledged at a summit led by then prime minister David Cameron in Wales back in 2014 to “move towards” the 2% baseline within a decade – ie by this year.
Even nuclear-armed France is falling short, along with Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, and the list goes on.
Britain should not rest easy.
It just about meets the spending pledge – though official NATO data shows the percentage spent on defence has dropped rather than risen over the past nine years from 2.14% in 2014 to an estimated 2.07% in 2023 despite the escalating threats.
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In addition, a damning report by MPs earlier this month found the UK military’s readiness for war to be “in doubt”, with limited stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, and more service personnel leaving the armed forces than being recruited.
Trump could still halt meaningful support to allies
Mr Trump’s primary criticism about NATO is over what he rightly sees as freeloading by a majority of allies that have for decades relied on the protective shield provided by the much more powerful US military rather than ensuring their own defences are credible and capable.
It was a stick he beat the alliance with during his four years as president, dangling the threat of withdrawing the US from NATO – a move that would deal a near-death blow to an organisation created after the Second World War as the cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security.
Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in 2019. Pic: Reuters
Last December, legislation was passed in Washington that prevents a sitting president from unilaterally exiting the alliance without the approval of lawmakers.
While this means Mr Trump may not physically be able to make good on such a threat should he win a second term, he could still halt meaningful support to allies, which would be almost as damaging.
US will remain ‘strong and committed NATO ally’, alliance chief says
Responding to his latest anti-NATO outburst, Jens Stoltenberg, the veteran alliance chief, who navigated allies through the first Trump presidency, issued an unusually blunt retort.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said. “I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO ally.”
It is a sentiment all allies in Europe will be clinging to.
But they would be far better off focusing their energy on fixing the problems closer to home by urgently rebuilding credible military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support.
Two people have been killed and nine injured in a shooting in Philadelphia’s Fairmount Park on Memorial Day.
Police said a large number of people were gathered near Lemon Hill Drive and Sedgley Drive at around 10.30pm local time on Monday when shots were fired.
A man and a woman were killed, and three teenagers – aged 15, 16 and 17 – were among the injured, all of whom were said to be in a stable condition.
“We have not recovered any weapons at this time,” a police officer told reporters.
“This is significant. It’s Memorial Day… we understand the significance of this event and we will make sure to provide an update on Tuesday.”
Memorial Day is a federal holiday in the United States, usually observed on the last Monday of May.
The day is dedicated to honouring and mourning military personnel who have died in the performance of their duties.
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Police said they have made no arrests so far and they have not yet released information on any suspects.
Fairmount Park was closed late on Monday evening following the shooting.
Donald Trump has threatened Russia with more sanctions after a series of deadly strikes across Ukraine, as he said of Vladimir Putin: “What the hell happened to him?”
The US president appeared aghast at the conduct of his counterpart in the Kremlin after drone and missile attacks in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities left 12 people dead and dozens more injured.
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Speaking to reporters at an airport in New Jersey ahead of a flight back to Washington, Mr Trump said: “I’m not happy with Putin. I don’t know what’s wrong with him.”
“He’s killing a lot of people,” he added. “I’m not happy about that.”
Mr Trump – who said he’s “always gotten along with” Mr Putin – told reporters he would consider more sanctions against Moscow.
“He’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all,” he said.
Ukraine said the barrage of strikes overnight into Sunday was the biggest aerial attack of the war so far, with 367 drones and missiles fired by Russian forces.
It came despite Mr Trump repeatedly talking up the chances of a peace agreement. He even spoke to Mr Putin on the phone for two hours last week.
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Hundreds of drones fired at Ukraine
‘Shameful’ attacks
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine is ready to sign a ceasefire deal, and suggested Russia isn’t serious about signing one.
In a statement after the latest attacks on his country, he urged the US and other national leaders to increase the pressure on Mr Putin, saying silence “only encourages” him.
Mr Trump’s envoy for the country, Keith Kellogg, later demanded a ceasefire, describing the Russian attacks as “shameful”.
Three children were among those killed in the attacks, explosions shaking the cities of Kyiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv.
Ukrainian siblings Tamara, 12, Stanislav, eight, and Roman, 17, were killed in Russian airstrikes. Pic: X/@Mariana_Betsa
Before the onslaught, Russia said it had faced a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday. It said around 100 were intercepted and destroyed near Moscow and in central and southern regions.
The violence has escalated despite Russia and Ukraine completing the exchange of 1,000 prisoners each over the past three days.
In Minneapolis, the spot where George Floyd was murdered has been turned into a mural.
His face is depicted in street art on a pavement covered in flowers, rosaries, and other trinkets left by people who have come to pay their respects in the last five years.
His final moments, struggling for breath with white police officer Derek Chauvin’s knee on his neck, were captured in a viral video that provoked anger, upset, and outrage.
Derek Chauvin kneeling on George Floyd’s neck
In Minneapolis and other parts of America, there were protests that at points boiled over into unrest.
The events to mark the fifth anniversary of his death took on a very different tone – one of celebration and joy.
Behind a wooden statue of a clenched fist on one end of a junction now renamed George Perry Floyd Square, people gathered in the morning.
There was a moment of prayer before a brass band began to play and the group marched, while singing and chanting.
George Perry Floyd Square, a makeshift memorial area
‘It made us want to fight harder’
Among those gathered in front of a makeshift stage built in the square were two of Floyd’s family members – his cousin Paris and aunt Mahalia.
To them, the man whose death sparked a racial reckoning in America and further afield, was simply “Perry,” a larger-than-life figure whose presence is missed at family gatherings.
Speaking to me while the speakers behind them thumped and people danced, they didn’t just reflect with sadness though.
There was also pride at a legacy they felt has led to change.
“It made us want to fight harder,” said Mahalia, “and it’s a feeling you cannot explain. When the whole world just stood up.”
George Floyd’s aunt Mahalia and cousin Paris
Referring to Chauvin’s eventual murder charge, Paris added: “I think that from here on out, at least officers know that you’re not going to slide through the cracks. Our voices are heard more.”
The tapestry of items outside the Cup Foods convenience store, now renamed Unity Foods, is not the only makeshift memorial in the area.
A short walk away is the “Say Their Names” cemetery, an art installation honouring black people killed by the police.
Meeting me there later in the day, activist Nikema Levy says the installation and George Floyd Square are called “sacred spaces” in the community.
As someone who took to the streets at the time of Floyd’s death and a community organiser for years before that, she’s constantly stopped by people who want to speak to her.
Activist Nikema Levy speaking to Sky News
‘White supremacy on steroids’
Once we do manage to speak, Levy reminds me of a wider political picture. One that goes beyond Minneapolis and is a fraught one.
In the week of the anniversary, the US Department of Justice rolled back investigations into some of the largest police forces in the country, including in Minneapolis – a move she calls “diabolical.”
“That type of cruelty is what we have seen since Donald Trump took office on January 20th of this year,” she continued.
“From my perspective, that is white supremacy on steroids. And it should come as no surprise that he would take these types of steps, because these are the things that he talked about on the campaign trail.”
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‘True healing has never taken place’
Trump has argued his policing reforms will help make America’s communities safer.
Even on a day of optimism, with a community coming together, Levy’s words in front of headstones bearing the names of black people who have died at the hands of the police are a reminder of how deep the racial divides in America still are – a sentiment she leaves me with.
“From the days of slavery and Jim Crow in this country, we’ve just had the perception of healing, but true healing has never taken place,” she says.
“So the aftermath of George Floyd is yet another example of what we already know.”
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