NATO would be better off urgently rebuilding military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support
It is clearly bad for NATO security that the potential next president of the United States has said he would encourage attacks on allies that fail to meet a core defence spending target.
But it is surely as much – or even greater – a challenge for the alliance that two-thirds of its 31 member states still have not increased the amount of national income dedicated to defence to a minimum of 2% (and experts deem that level to be woefully inadequate).
This is despite Russia’s war in Ukraine, Iran-linked conflict in the Middle East and the risk posed by an increasingly powerful China.
Donald Trump revived alarm bells across NATO capitals over the weekend when he claimed during a campaign rally that a leader “of a big country” once said to him “if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?”
Mr Trump, who is the frontrunner to be the Republican candidate for president, said he responded by warning: “You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. Yes, let’s say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”
If his remarks are to be taken at face value, then some comfort may be drawn from a quick glance at a map of Europe. It will show that the nations most vulnerable to any Russian invasion – the Baltic states and Poland – all comfortably pass the NATO spending test.
Yet, comments made by Mr Trump when he was commander-in-chief repeatedly raised doubts as to whether he would go to war with Moscow whichever NATO ally is targeted.
This stance fundamentally eroded the alliance’s founding principle of collective defence – an attack on one is an attack on all.
But each NATO ally that fails to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence is just as culpable of undermining the deterrent effect of Article 5.
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‘I would encourage them to do whatever they want’
Which countries are falling short?
Europe’s biggest economic power – Germany – remains one of the main offenders even though all allies pledged at a summit led by then prime minister David Cameron in Wales back in 2014 to “move towards” the 2% baseline within a decade – ie by this year.
Even nuclear-armed France is falling short, along with Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, and the list goes on.
Britain should not rest easy.
It just about meets the spending pledge – though official NATO data shows the percentage spent on defence has dropped rather than risen over the past nine years from 2.14% in 2014 to an estimated 2.07% in 2023 despite the escalating threats.
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In addition, a damning report by MPs earlier this month found the UK military’s readiness for war to be “in doubt”, with limited stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, and more service personnel leaving the armed forces than being recruited.
Trump could still halt meaningful support to allies
Mr Trump’s primary criticism about NATO is over what he rightly sees as freeloading by a majority of allies that have for decades relied on the protective shield provided by the much more powerful US military rather than ensuring their own defences are credible and capable.
It was a stick he beat the alliance with during his four years as president, dangling the threat of withdrawing the US from NATO – a move that would deal a near-death blow to an organisation created after the Second World War as the cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security.
Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in 2019. Pic: Reuters
Last December, legislation was passed in Washington that prevents a sitting president from unilaterally exiting the alliance without the approval of lawmakers.
While this means Mr Trump may not physically be able to make good on such a threat should he win a second term, he could still halt meaningful support to allies, which would be almost as damaging.
US will remain ‘strong and committed NATO ally’, alliance chief says
Responding to his latest anti-NATO outburst, Jens Stoltenberg, the veteran alliance chief, who navigated allies through the first Trump presidency, issued an unusually blunt retort.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said. “I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO ally.”
It is a sentiment all allies in Europe will be clinging to.
But they would be far better off focusing their energy on fixing the problems closer to home by urgently rebuilding credible military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support.
The Trump administration has stopped the scheduling of new visa interviews for foreign students hoping to study in the US while it prepares to expand social media vetting of applicants.
A US official said on Tuesday the suspension is intended to be temporary and does not apply to applicants who already have visa interviews scheduled.
The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an internal administration document.
A downturn in enrolment of international students could hurt university budgets in the US.
To make up for cuts in federal research funding, some colleges previously shifted to enrolling more international students, who often pay full tuition.
Now, an internal cable signed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and seen by the Associated Press news agency shows how new student visa interviews are being halted as the US State Department plans to issue guidance on expanded social media vetting.
The cable says that “in preparation for an expansion of required social media screening and vetting, consulate sections should not add any additional student or exchange visitor visa appointment capacity” until the guidance is issued.
It also says the halting of new visa interviews is “effective immediately”.
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Asked about the suspension at a briefing on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the US uses every available resource to vet people applying for visas.
“We will continue to use every tool we can to assess who it is that’s coming here, whether they are students or otherwise,” Ms Bruce said.
The move, first reported by Politico, is the latest in the White House’s crackdown on international students.
Last week, the Trump administration revoked Harvard University’s ability to enrol international students, removing the college from the programme that allows schools to sponsor foreign students for visas.
That effort was quickly challenged in court and for now is blocked by a federal judge.
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This spring the Trump administration also revoked the legal status of thousands of international students already in the country, leading some to leave the US out of fear of deportation.
After many students filed successful legal challenges, the administration said it was restoring the students’ legal status.
But the government also expanded the grounds for terminating international students’ legal status going forward.
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US President Donald Trump’s previous administration stepped up scrutiny of all visa applicants, introducing reviews of their social media accounts.
The policy remained during President Joe Biden’s administration.
An extended pause in scheduling student visas could lead to delays that may disrupt college, boarding school or exchange students’ plans to enrol in summer and autumn terms.
A test flight of SpaceX’s Starship rocket has failed for the third time in a row.
It began spinning out of control about 30 minutes after its launch because of fuel leaks – meaning it broke up on re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere.
“Our chances of making it all the way down to the Indian Ocean are pretty slim,” a SpaceX commentator said during a livestream.
There had been hopes of a successful mission, as the rocket had progressed beyond the point of explosive past failures in January and March.
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March: SpaceX debris lights up sky after failed launch
But plans to release a series of mock satellites after lift-off were abandoned because its payload door failed to open fully.
The vessel had been mounted atop a Super Heavy booster that was being reused for the first time ever – and while that was meant to make a soft landing, it ended up slamming into the Gulf of Mexico.
SpaceX hopes that Starship will one day be used to ferry people and cargo to Mars, but this latest setback plunges Elon Musk’s ambitions into doubt.
Failed launches earlier this year disrupted dozens of flights across the US – and the project was grounded for two months while an investigation took place.
Musk was due to update the world on his space exploration ambitions later, in a speech entitled “The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary” – but the event has been delayed without explanation.
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Nonetheless, the world’s richest man described the latest test flight as a “big improvement”.
He also vowed to pick up the pace with future launches – and says the next three flights will take place every three to four weeks.
On X, the company added: “With a test like this, success comes from what we learn, and today’s test will help us improve Starship’s reliability.”
NASA needs SpaceX to make huge advances with Starship over the next 12 months as the US agency tries to fulfil an ambition of landing astronauts back on the moon.
Musk had been hoping for success after pledging to start focusing on his many businesses – Tesla, X and SpaceX among them – after attempting to slash government spending while in the Trump administration.
Footage posted on social media showed the billionaire watching the test flight unfold from a control centre, while wearing the T-shirt “Occupy Mars”.
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