NATO would be better off urgently rebuilding military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support
It is clearly bad for NATO security that the potential next president of the United States has said he would encourage attacks on allies that fail to meet a core defence spending target.
But it is surely as much – or even greater – a challenge for the alliance that two-thirds of its 31 member states still have not increased the amount of national income dedicated to defence to a minimum of 2% (and experts deem that level to be woefully inadequate).
This is despite Russia’s war in Ukraine, Iran-linked conflict in the Middle East and the risk posed by an increasingly powerful China.
Donald Trump revived alarm bells across NATO capitals over the weekend when he claimed during a campaign rally that a leader “of a big country” once said to him “if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?”
Mr Trump, who is the frontrunner to be the Republican candidate for president, said he responded by warning: “You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. Yes, let’s say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”
If his remarks are to be taken at face value, then some comfort may be drawn from a quick glance at a map of Europe. It will show that the nations most vulnerable to any Russian invasion – the Baltic states and Poland – all comfortably pass the NATO spending test.
Yet, comments made by Mr Trump when he was commander-in-chief repeatedly raised doubts as to whether he would go to war with Moscow whichever NATO ally is targeted.
This stance fundamentally eroded the alliance’s founding principle of collective defence – an attack on one is an attack on all.
But each NATO ally that fails to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence is just as culpable of undermining the deterrent effect of Article 5.
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‘I would encourage them to do whatever they want’
Which countries are falling short?
Europe’s biggest economic power – Germany – remains one of the main offenders even though all allies pledged at a summit led by then prime minister David Cameron in Wales back in 2014 to “move towards” the 2% baseline within a decade – ie by this year.
Even nuclear-armed France is falling short, along with Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, and the list goes on.
Britain should not rest easy.
It just about meets the spending pledge – though official NATO data shows the percentage spent on defence has dropped rather than risen over the past nine years from 2.14% in 2014 to an estimated 2.07% in 2023 despite the escalating threats.
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In addition, a damning report by MPs earlier this month found the UK military’s readiness for war to be “in doubt”, with limited stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, and more service personnel leaving the armed forces than being recruited.
Trump could still halt meaningful support to allies
Mr Trump’s primary criticism about NATO is over what he rightly sees as freeloading by a majority of allies that have for decades relied on the protective shield provided by the much more powerful US military rather than ensuring their own defences are credible and capable.
It was a stick he beat the alliance with during his four years as president, dangling the threat of withdrawing the US from NATO – a move that would deal a near-death blow to an organisation created after the Second World War as the cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security.
Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in 2019. Pic: Reuters
Last December, legislation was passed in Washington that prevents a sitting president from unilaterally exiting the alliance without the approval of lawmakers.
While this means Mr Trump may not physically be able to make good on such a threat should he win a second term, he could still halt meaningful support to allies, which would be almost as damaging.
US will remain ‘strong and committed NATO ally’, alliance chief says
Responding to his latest anti-NATO outburst, Jens Stoltenberg, the veteran alliance chief, who navigated allies through the first Trump presidency, issued an unusually blunt retort.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said. “I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO ally.”
It is a sentiment all allies in Europe will be clinging to.
But they would be far better off focusing their energy on fixing the problems closer to home by urgently rebuilding credible military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support.
US President Donald Trump says he has yet to decide whether the US will join Israel militarily in its campaign against Iran.
Asked whether the US was getting closer to striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, Mr Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it.”
Speaking outside the White House on Wednesday, he added: “Nobody knows what I’m going to do…Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.
“And I said, ‘why didn’t you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction?'”
Mr Trump said Iran had reached out to Washington, a claim Tehran denied, with Iran’s mission to the UN responding: “No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would not surrender and warned “any US military intervention will undoubtedly cause irreparable damage” to US-Iranian relations.
Read more:
Why did Israel attack Iran?
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The families caught up in Iran-Israel attacks
Strikes continue
Hundreds have reportedly died since Iran and Israel began exchanging strikes last Friday, when Israel launched an air assault after saying it had concluded Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, a claim Tehran denies.
Israel launched three waves of aerial attacks on Iran in the last 24 hours, military spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin has said.
Israel deployed dozens of warplanes to strike over 60 targets in Tehran and western Iran, including missile launchers and missile-production sites, he said.
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“The aim of the operation is to eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel, significantly damage Iran’s nuclear programme in all its components, and severely impact its missile array,” he said.
Early on Thursday Israel issued an evacuation warning to residents of the Iranian Arak and Khandab regions where Iran has heavy water reactor facilities. Heavy water is important in controlling chain reactions in the production of weapons grade plutonium.
Meanwhile Iran says it has arrested 18 people it describes as “enemy agents” who it says were building drones for the Israelis in the northern city of Mashhad.
Iran also launched small barrages of missiles at Israel on Wednesday with no reports of casualties. Israel has now eased some restrictions for its civilians.
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The US is working to evacuate its citizens from Israel by arranging flights and cruise ship departures, the US ambassador to the country has said.
In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer chaired a COBRA emergency meeting on the situation in the Middle East, with a Downing Street spokesperson saying: “Ministers were updated on efforts to support British nationals in region and protect regional security, as well as ongoing diplomatic efforts”.
A senior US senator who supports Donald Trump has told Sky News why he believes the US would be right to intervene in Iran.
Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas who ran against Mr Trump in 2016 but now backs him, told US correspondent David Blevins that Iran is an “acute threat to the national security of the US”.
He went on to claim that because “Iran is also building ICBMs (intercontinental ballistc missiles)” and “You don’t need an ICBM to go to Israel”, it indicated Iran’s intention “to take a nuclear weapon to the United States to murder Americans”.
“Nobody is talking about invading Iran,” Mr Cruz added. “We’re not going to see boots on the ground.”
Middle East latest: Trump says he ‘may or may not’ strike Iran
It comes after the US president said he “may do it, I may not do it” when asked if he would launch a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
So far, Israel has been attacking Iran alone since it ramped up its military action last Friday, launching strikes against what it says are Tehran’s facilities for developing a nuclear weapon and also destroying its air defences.
Iran has always denied seeking the ability to make a nuclear weapon from its uranium enrichment programme.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Blevins’s fellow US correspondent Mark Stone says that while figures like Mr Cruz back military action, “a whole host of other figures are saying ‘do not do it'”.
“The social media space is absolutely full of MAGA [Make America Great Again] figures from the right… saying ‘we absolutely must not go into Iran’.”
If the US were to decide to take military action against Iran, it could have implications for the UK, as America may ask to station refuelling aircraft at a British base in Cyprus and B-2 bombers, which could carry the bunker buster bombs required to attack Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, could launch from the British base of Diego Garcia.
Mr Cruz told Sky News that while many of Mr Trump’s support base did not want to see the US involve itself in another war, “the overwhelming majority of Americans, nearly 80%, support President Trump, and support President Trump defending us against an Iranian nuclear weapon.”
America is deploying more fighter planes to the Middle East in a “demonstration of force” as tensions escalate and speculation about a possible US strike on Iran continues.
Pictures and flight tracking data show F-35 jets and tanker aircraft being moved towards the region, as well as the tasking of an aircraft carrier, providing options in case President Donald Trump decides to intervene in the conflict.
But one particular aircraft that has not been seen just yet – the B-2 stealth bomber – could reveal the most about America’s intentions towards Iran…
Why is America moving more aircraft to the Middle East?
“It’s giving them options,” says military analyst Michael Clarke. “They have got four types of aircraft – including fighters, interceptors and fighter-bombers – all in the right region.”
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Clarke: What could US involvement look like as Iran attacks ease
The new arrivals can be spread around several existing military bases that the US has in the region in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
“More is better and also it’s a demonstration of force,” Prof Clarke added. “There’s a political element behind it, to show the Iranians what they can do, but also to other allies.
“The Americans want to be taken seriously in all of this.”
A Boeing KC-46A Pegasus, primarily used for aerial refueling, is seen on tracking in the eastern Mediterranean. Pic: Flightradar24
Analysis: What aircraft have moved to the region?
Sky News analysis of flight-tracking data shows more than 30 US military planes have been active over parts of Europe and the Mediterranean Sea over the past three days.
These include planes used for reconnaissance, refuelling in mid-air as well as carrying cargo.
Map of US military bases in the Middle East
An air-traffic control recording from the US suggests F-22 Raptors are being sent across the Atlantic. Two refuelling tankers are visible on flight tracking data leaving the US east coast, likely escorting the stealth fighter jets.
In images taken by photographer Glenn Lockett in Suffolk, three US air tankers were seen flying over England, each accompanied by four F-35 jets.
F-35s are one of the most advanced warplanes in the world, known for their ability to evade enemy radar.
A US air tanker seen flying over England, accompanied by F-35 jets. Credit: Instagram/g.lockaviation
Flight tracking data shows that the tankers travelled to the Mediterranean and then returned to the UK.
Most of the US military planes tracked by Sky News regularly turn off their locations and final destinations, according to the data from Flightradar24.
Some of the planes moved from the US to Europe, while others appeared to move closer to the Middle East. At least five of the US military aircraft landed at Chania Airport on the Greek island of Crete.
An air-traffic control recording from the US also suggests F-22 Raptors are being sent across the Atlantic. Two refuelling tankers are visible on flight tracking data leaving the US east coast, likely escorting the stealth fighter jets.
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US insists deployments are defensive
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth stressed that the deployment of more aircraft was defensive in nature, as Washington looks to safeguard its forces in the region.
Fighter aircraft have been used to shoot down drones and projectiles in the past.
America already has a substantial force in the Middle East, with nearly 40,000 troops as well as air defence systems, aircraft and warships.
But as the conflict between Israel and Iran carries on – and President Trump continues to make threats against Tehran – it’s possible that multiple options could be on the table for intervention.
B-2 bombers – the ones to watch?
Asked what he’s looking out for as speculation about whether the US will intervene directly continues, Prof Clarke pointed to one particular aircraft that hasn’t been seen moving towards the region yet: The B-2 stealth bomber.
Known for its iconic triangle shape and ability to penetrate deep air defences undetected, the B-2 has lesser-known capability that could be crucial for any action over Iran: it can carry ‘bunker buster’ bombs.
So far Israel has not been able to damage Iran’s secretive Fordow uranium enrichment plant, which is buried deep beneath a mountain.
A B-2 stealth bomber flies over Washington DC during a 4 July celebration. File pic: AP
The only bomb believed to be powerful enough to penetrate the facility is America’s GBU-57, a 14-ton bomb that is so heavy it can only be launched from the US fleet of heavy bomber aircraft.
Any movement of B-2 bombers to the joint UK-US base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean could “indicate the likelihood that the Americans are going to use bunker busters in Iran,” Prof Clarke says.
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