WASHINGTON (AP) From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers.
The Fed is widely expected to do so this year probably several times. Inflation, as measured by its preferred gauge, rose in the second half of 2023 at an annual rate of about 2% the Fed’s target level. Yet this week, several central bank officials underscored that they werent ready to pull the trigger just yet.
Why, with inflation nearly conquered and the Fed’s key rate at a 22-year high, isn’t now the time to cut?
Most of the Fed’s policymakers have said they’re optimistic that even as the economy and the job market keep growing, inflation pressures will continue to cool. But they also caution that the economy appears so strong that there’s a real risk that price increases could spike again.
And some are worried that if they cut rates now and inflation re-accelerates, then the Fed could be forced into an about-face and have to raise rates again.
“History tells many stories of inflation head-fakes,” said Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, in a speech Thursday.
Inflation had seemed defeated in 1986, Barkin noted, when Paul Volcker was Fed chair.
The Fed reduced rates, but inflation then escalated again the following year, causing the Fed to reverse course,” he said.
“I would love to avoid that roller-coaster if we can, said, Barkin, who is among 12 Fed officials who vote on interest rate policy this year.
Several officials have said they want more time to see if inflation continues to subside. In the meantime, they note, the economy is solid enough that it can thrive without any rate cuts. Last month, for example, Americas employers delivered a burst of hiring, and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.
Theyre going to be glacial, and take their time, said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. Theyre willing to say, We dont know, but we can afford to wait so were going to wait. “
The sturdiness of the economy has also raised questions about just how effective the Feds 11 rate hikes have been. If higher borrowing rates are only barely restraining the economy, some officials may conclude that high rates should stay in place longer or that few rate cuts will be needed.
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I dont feel theres a sense of urgency here, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, told reporters Tuesday. I think later this year, if things evolve as anticipated, we would be able to start moving the rate down.
Yet their caution carries risks. Right now, the economy appears on track for a soft landing,” in which inflation would be defeated without causing a recession or high unemployment. But the longer that borrowing rates stay high, the higher the risk that many companies and consumers would stop borrowing and spending, weakening the economy and potentially sending it into a recession.
High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates.
The high cost of borrowing has become a headache for David Kelleher’s Chrysler-Jeep dealership just outside of Philadelphia. Just 2 1/2 years ago, Kelleher recalled, his customers could get an auto loan below 3%. Now, they’re lucky to get 5.5%.
Customers who had monthly car lease payments of, say, $400 three years ago are finding that with vehicle prices much higher and interest rates up, their monthly payments would be closer to $650. The trend is pushing many of his customers toward lower-priced used cars or no purchase at all.
We need the government to address the interest rates … and understand that theyve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation,” Kelleher said. If interest rates can come down, I think were going to start selling more cars.
Kelleher is likely to get his wish by May or June, when most economists expect the Fed to start reducing its benchmark rate, which is now at about 5.4%. In December, all but two of the 19 policymakers that participate in the Fed’s policy discussions said they expect the central bank to cut rates this year. (Twelve of those 19 actually get to vote on rate policies each year.)
Yet economic growth has accelerated since then. In the final three months of last year, the economy expanded at an unexpectedly strong 3.3% annual rate. Surveys of manufacturers and service-providers, such as retailers, banks, and shippers, also reported that business perked up last month.
Collectively, the latest reports suggest that the economy may not be headed for a soft landing but rather what some economists call a no landing. By that they mean a scenario in which the economy would remain robust and inflation an ongoing threat, potentially stuck above the Fed’s target. Under this scenario, the Fed would feel compelled to keep rates at elevated levels for an extended period.
Powell said last week that while the Fed wants to see continued strong growth, a strong economy does threaten to send inflation up.
I think that is a risk … that inflation would accelerate, Powell said. I think the greater risk is that it would stabilize at a level meaningfully above 2%. … Thats why we keep our options open here and why were not rushing.”
Other officials this week drove home the point that the Fed is trying to balance the risk of cutting rates too soon which might cause inflation to surge again and keeping rates too high for too long, which could trigger a recession.
At some point, the continued cooling of inflation and labor markets may make it appropriate to reduce rates, Andrea Kugler, a recently appointed Fed governor said Wednesday in her first public speech. On the other hand, if progress on disinflation stalls, it may be appropriate to hold the target range steady at its current level for longer.
Some analysts have pointed to signs that the economy is becoming more productive, or efficient, allowing it grow faster without necessarily increasing inflation. Yet productivity data is notoriously hard to measure, and any meaningful improvement wouldn’t necessarily become apparent for years.
Still, maybe the economy can take higher interest rates than we thought in 2019 before the pandemic, said Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine.
If so, that might not just delay the Fed’s rate cuts, but result in fewer of them. Fed officials are still saying they plan to cut rates perhaps three times this year, below the five or six that some market analysts foresee.
Rachel Reeves has been accused of failing to “support the great British pub” as she promised in the budget, with owners facing skyrocketing business rates bills.
In her speech in the House of Commons on Wednesday, the chancellor said she was backing small businesses by introducing “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties – the lowest tax rates since 1991”.
But while the government gave itself the powers to discount the business rates bills for high street businesses through legislation earlier this year, the chancellor only implemented a reduction of a quarter of what the government is able to, and she is being accused of imposing a “stealth tax”.
It has left small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses questioning whether their businesses will be viable beyond April next year.
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8:46
Sky’s Ed Conway looks at the aftermath of the budget and explains who the winners and losers are.
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We’re protecting pubs, restaurants and cafes with the budget’s £4.3bn support package – capping bill rises so a typical independent pub will pay around £4,800 less next year than they otherwise would have.
“This comes on top of cutting licensing costs to help more venues offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping corporation tax.”
Business rates, which are a tax on commercial properties in England and Wales, are calculated through a complex formula of the value of the property, assessed by a government agency every three years, combined with a national “multiplier” set by the Treasury, giving a final cash amount.
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Image: Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been accused of imposing a “stealth tax” on hospitality businesses. Pic: PA
Over the last few years, small businesses were given business rates relief of 75% to support them over the COVID pandemic, and Ms Reeves reduced that to 40% at last year’s budget.
The idea was that at the budget this year, the chancellor would remove that remaining relief in favour of reforming the business rates system to compensate for that drop, while shifting the tax burden on to much bigger businesses and companies like Amazon with lots of warehouse space.
However, the chancellor only announced a 5p in the pound discount for small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses, rather than the assumed 20p drop which the government gave itself the powers to implement, and which trade bodies had been lobbying for.
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2:57
How will your personal finances change following the budget announced by the chancellor?
On top of that, small businesses have seen the government-assessed value of their property increase dramatically, which wipes out the discount, and sees their business rates bill shoot far above what they had previously been paying.
One pub owner near Hull, Sam Caroll, has seen the assessed value of one of his two properties increase from £67,000 to £110,000 in just three years – a 64% increase.
He told Sky News that there is a “continual question” of business viability, and while he thinks they can “adapt” in the short term, “there will be a tipping point at some point”. Even at the moment, packing out their pubs seven nights a week, “it’s difficult for us to break even”, he said.
There will be a discount for small businesses to transition to the higher business rates level, but by year three, almost the full amount is expected to be payable, and Mr Carroll described it as “getting f***** slowly, instead of getting f***** overnight”.
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Sean Hughes, who owns multiple hospitality venues in St Albans, has also seen vast increases in the assessed value of his properties, and was sharply critical of the transitional arrangements the government is implementing.
He told Sky News: “Fundamental business rate reform was promised and we have total chaos. If [the system] was fair, why would they need transitional relief periods?”
A spokesperson of the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), which assesses the value of commercial properties for business rates purposes, told Sky News: “At the last revaluation, some sectors including hospitality were significantly affected by the pandemic, which resulted in much lower rateable values than they would have seen otherwise. Businesses that have now seen a recovery in trade are also likely to see an increase in their rateable value.”
However, Sky News has seen evidence of businesses whose assessed value did not decrease when assessed during the pandemic, but actually rose, and has risen dramatically this year.
Data compiled by the Pubs Advisory Service, shows that the number of pubs in the UK has decreased by nearly 5% in three years, but the average value of the properties has risen by an average of 36.82% per pub.
And analysis by UK Hospitality, the trade body that represents hospitality businesses, has found that over the next three years, the average pub will pay an extra £12,900 in business rates, even with the transitional arrangements, while an average hotel will see its bill soar by £205,200.
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4:30
The prime minister has defended the budget after he and the chancellor were accused of breaking their promise to voters.
The body adds that by 2028/29, an average pub’s business rates will have increased by 76% and an average hotel’s by 115%, compared to 16% for a distribution warehouse like the ones the web giants use.
It’s not just the business rates rise that is worrying owners – it is the increase in employers’ national insurance implemented at the last budget, the increase in energy bills over the last few years, and the rise in the minimum wage, particularly for young people.
With the budget set to squeeze disposal income, there is little room for price increases to make up the shortfall either.
In a letter to the chancellor on Friday, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said small business owners “have been pushed to tears as they’re hit with the bombshell of higher business rates bills”, noting that “the government has chosen not to use the full powers it gave itself to throw high streets a lifeline”.
She added that businesses had been promised “permanently lower business rates”, but it appears the government has “broken yet another promise, by imposing a stealth tax not just on people, but on treasured high street businesses too”, and called on ministers to “throw our high streets and Britain’s hospitality sector a lifeline”.
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Conservative shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith published his own analysis of the government’s budget measures on Friday morning, that found they will “hammer British pubs”.
Of the chancellor, he said: “She pretended in her budget speech to be supportive, whilst the true detail is that a combination of rate revaluations and scrapping reliefs will leave most pubs paying thousands of pounds more than they cannot afford.”
Kate Nicholls, Chair of UKHospitality, said in a statement: “The government promised in its manifesto that it would level the playing field between the high street and online giants. The plan in the budget to achieve this is quickly unravelling, and will deliver the exact opposite.”
She said they “repeatedly warned the Treasury” of the impending impacted of the value reassessment, but nonetheless, hospitality businesses are now facing “eye-watering increases”.
She added: “We agree with its reforms to deliver permanently lower business rates for hospitality and we appreciate the package of transitional relief, but its current proposal is not delivering lower bills. A 20p discount for hospitality would. We urge the chancellor to revisit.”
Donald Trump has said he will cancel all executive orders that he claims were signed with an autopen by his predecessor Joe Biden.
The US president alleged Mr Biden was “not involved” in signing the orders and claimed “the radical left lunatics circling Biden around the beautiful Resolute Desk in the Oval Office took the presidency away from him”. He did not provide any evidence for his claims.
An autopen is a device which reproduces a person’s signature, allowing them to repeatedly sign documents without having to do so by hand each time.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said: “Any document signed by Sleepy Joe Biden with the Autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated, and of no further force or effect.
“The Autopen is not allowed to be used if approval is not specifically given by the President of the United States.”
He added: “I am hereby cancelling all Executive Orders, and anything else that was not directly signed by Crooked Joe Biden, because the people who operated the Autopen did so illegally.
“Joe Biden was not involved in the Autopen process and, if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.”
Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed Mr Biden was not mentally capable by the end of his term and his staff made decisions on his behalf, using an autopen to sign them off without his knowledge.
Mr Trump has not provided any evidence for his claims, while Mr Biden and his former aides have denied they made decisions on his behalf.
In June, Mr Biden said: “Let me be clear: I made the decisions during my presidency.
“I made the decisions about the pardons, executive orders, legislation, and proclamations. Any suggestion that I didn’t is ridiculous and false.”
Mr Trump has also used an autopen, but claimed he only used it “for very unimportant papers”.
Image: Pic: Reuters
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0:31
Trump trolls Biden with new ‘presidential portrait’
Earlier this year, Mr Trump replaced a portrait of Mr Biden in the Oval Office with a picture of an autopen signing the former president’s name.
STARKVILLE, Miss. — Lane Kiffin said he’ll decide Saturday whether he will return as Ole Miss‘ coach in 2026 or take another job, presumably at LSU, which is trying to poach him from its SEC rival with a lucrative contract offer that will make him one of the highest-paid coaches in college football.
Kiffin, while speaking to reporters after the No. 7 Rebels’ 38-19 victory at Mississippi State in Friday’s Egg Bowl at Davis Wade Stadium, would only say that he’ll have to make a decision one way or the other, after Ole Miss athletics director Keith Carter and chancellor Glenn Boyce said they needed an answer by Saturday.
“I feel like I’ve got to,” Kiffin said.
When Kiffin was asked if he had made up his mind about where he’ll be coaching next season, he said, “Yeah, I haven’t. Maybe that surprises you. But, you know, I’ve got to do some praying and figure this thing out.”
Kiffin said he planned to attend his son’s high school playoff game in Tupelo, Mississippi, on Friday night. Knox Kiffin is Oxford High’s starting quarterback.
“Tonight, I’m going to go be a dad and watch a more important game to me,” Kiffin said.
Kiffin wasn’t sure what time he would make a decision Saturday.
“There’s a lot [that goes] into it,” Kiffin said. “It’s a hard decision. You guys have them all the time. You’ve got to make decisions about jobs you take and where you move, and we get paid a lot so I understand we’re under a lot of spotlight and scrutiny.”
Kiffin said he regretted not being able to speak to his father, Monte Kiffin, while trying to make one of the most important decisions of his career. The longtime NFL defensive coordinator died in July 2024. He was 84.
Kiffin, 50, has sought the advice of former Alabama coach Nick Saban and Las Vegas Raiders coach Pete Carroll, his former boss at USC, the past few weeks.
ESPN reported earlier Friday that Florida, which was also courting Kiffin, is now focused on other candidates in its search because the Gators believe he’s more interested in other opportunities.
Carter and Boyce met with Kiffin a week ago in Oxford, Mississippi, and the sides came to an understanding that Kiffin would make up his mind the day after the Egg Bowl.
If the Egg Bowl was Kiffin’s last game as Ole Miss’ coach, it was a fitting end to one of the most successful tenures in school history.
As speculation about Kiffin’s future continued to swirl over the past two weeks, the Rebels rolled past their rivals for their fifth win in the past six meetings in the heated series. The Rebels had 545 yards of offense, as quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passed for 359 yards with four touchdowns.
The Rebels (11-1, 7-1 SEC) all but secured a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. They’ll have to wait another day to find out whether they’ll play in next week’s SEC championship game in Atlanta.
No. 3 Texas A&M would have to fall at No. 16 Texas on Friday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) and No. 10 Alabama would have to lose at Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC) for the Rebels to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game.
And, of course, Ole Miss fans will be waiting Saturday to find out which coaches will be on the sideline for the CFP, which might begin with a first-round game at home on Dec. 19 or 20.
If Kiffin decides to leave for LSU, former New York Giants coach Joe Judge would likely serve as the Rebels’ interim coach in the CFP, sources told ESPN.