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WASHINGTON (AP) From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers.

The Fed is widely expected to do so this year probably several times. Inflation, as measured by its preferred gauge, rose in the second half of 2023 at an annual rate of about 2%  the Fed’s target level. Yet this week, several central bank officials underscored that they werent ready to pull the trigger just yet.

Why, with inflation nearly conquered and the Fed’s key rate at a 22-year high, isn’t now the time to cut?

Most of the Fed’s policymakers have said they’re optimistic that even as the economy and the job market keep growing, inflation pressures will continue to cool. But they also caution that the economy appears so strong that there’s a real risk that price increases could spike again.

And some are worried that if they cut rates now and inflation re-accelerates, then the Fed could be forced into an about-face and have to raise rates again.

“History tells many stories of inflation head-fakes,” said Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, in a speech Thursday.

Inflation had seemed defeated in 1986, Barkin noted, when Paul Volcker was Fed chair.

The Fed reduced rates, but inflation then escalated again the following year, causing the Fed to reverse course,” he said.

“I would love to avoid that roller-coaster if we can, said, Barkin, who is among 12 Fed officials who vote on interest rate policy this year.

Several officials have said they want more time to see if inflation continues to subside. In the meantime, they note, the economy is solid enough that it can thrive without any rate cuts. Last month, for example, Americas employers delivered a burst of hiring, and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.

Theyre going to be glacial, and take their time, said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. Theyre willing to say, We dont know, but we can afford to wait so were going to wait. “

The sturdiness of the economy has also raised questions about just how effective the Feds 11 rate hikes have been. If higher borrowing rates are only barely restraining the economy, some officials may conclude that high rates should stay in place longer or that few rate cuts will be needed.

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I dont feel theres a sense of urgency here, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, told reporters Tuesday. I think later this year, if things evolve as anticipated, we would be able to start moving the rate down.

Yet their caution carries risks. Right now, the economy appears on track for a soft landing,” in which inflation would be defeated without causing a recession or high unemployment. But the longer that borrowing rates stay high, the higher the risk that many companies and consumers would stop borrowing and spending, weakening the economy and potentially sending it into a recession.

High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates.

The high cost of borrowing has become a headache for David Kelleher’s Chrysler-Jeep dealership just outside of Philadelphia. Just 2 1/2 years ago, Kelleher recalled, his customers could get an auto loan below 3%. Now, they’re lucky to get 5.5%.

Customers who had monthly car lease payments of, say, $400 three years ago are finding that with vehicle prices much higher and interest rates up, their monthly payments would be closer to $650. The trend is pushing many of his customers toward lower-priced used cars or no purchase at all.

We need the government to address the interest rates … and understand that theyve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation,” Kelleher said. If interest rates can come down, I think were going to start selling more cars.

Kelleher is likely to get his wish by May or June, when most economists expect the Fed to start reducing its benchmark rate, which is now at about 5.4%. In December, all but two of the 19 policymakers that participate in the Fed’s policy discussions said they expect the central bank to cut rates this year. (Twelve of those 19 actually get to vote on rate policies each year.)

Yet economic growth has accelerated since then. In the final three months of last year, the economy expanded at an unexpectedly strong 3.3% annual rate. Surveys of manufacturers and service-providers, such as retailers, banks, and shippers, also reported that business perked up last month.

Collectively, the latest reports suggest that the economy may not be headed for a soft landing but rather what some economists call a no landing. By that they mean a scenario in which the economy would remain robust and inflation an ongoing threat, potentially stuck above the Fed’s target. Under this scenario, the Fed would feel compelled to keep rates at elevated levels for an extended period.

Powell said last week that while the Fed wants to see continued strong growth, a strong economy does threaten to send inflation up.

I think that is a risk … that inflation would accelerate, Powell said. I think the greater risk is that it would stabilize at a level meaningfully above 2%. … Thats why we keep our options open here and why were not rushing.”

Other officials this week drove home the point that the Fed is trying to balance the risk of cutting rates too soon which might cause inflation to surge again and keeping rates too high for too long, which could trigger a recession.

At some point, the continued cooling of inflation and labor markets may make it appropriate to reduce rates, Andrea Kugler, a recently appointed Fed governor said Wednesday in her first public speech. On the other hand, if progress on disinflation stalls, it may be appropriate to hold the target range steady at its current level for longer.

Some analysts have pointed to signs that the economy is becoming more productive, or efficient, allowing it grow faster without necessarily increasing inflation. Yet productivity data is notoriously hard to measure, and any meaningful improvement wouldn’t necessarily become apparent for years.

Still, maybe the economy can take higher interest rates than we thought in 2019 before the pandemic, said Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine.

If so, that might not just delay the Fed’s rate cuts, but result in fewer of them. Fed officials are still saying they plan to cut rates perhaps three times this year, below the five or six that some market analysts foresee.

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Gaza ceasefire ‘resumes’ after killings and suspension of aid test fragile truce

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Gaza ceasefire 'resumes' after killings and suspension of aid test fragile truce

The Israeli military has said that a ceasefire in Gaza would hold after the truce was seriously tested by an attack that killed two Israeli soldiers and a wave of airstrikes that killed 36 Palestinians.

Aid supplies into the enclave are due to resume on Monday following US pressure, an Israeli security source said, shortly after Israel announced a halt in supplies in response to what it called a “blatant” violation by Hamas of the truce.

A little over a week has passed since the start of the US-proposed ceasefire aimed at ending two years of war.

Israel‘s military said militants fired at troops in areas of Rafah city that are Israeli-controlled, according to agreed-upon ceasefire lines.

The military said Israel responded with airstrikes and artillery, hitting dozens of Hamas targets. It also said its forces struck “terrorists” approaching troops in Beit Lahiya in the north.

Health officials said at least 36 Palestinians were killed across Gaza, including children.

An injured child is carried to Nasser Hospital after an airstrike in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP
Image:
An injured child is carried to Nasser Hospital after an airstrike in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP

One airstrike hit a former school sheltering displaced families in the area of Nuseirat, killing four people, according to Al Awda Hospital, which received the casualties.

More on Israel-hamas War

Another hit a tent in the Muwasi area of Khan Younis in the south, killing at least four people, including a woman and two children, according to Nasser Hospital.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed the military to take “strong action” against any ceasefire violations but did not threaten to return to war.

The armed wing of Hamas continued to accuse Israel of multiple ceasefire violations, but said it remained committed to the ceasefire agreement.

It said communication with its remaining units in Rafah had been cut off for months, adding “we are not responsible for any incidents occurring in those areas”.

Children were injured and some were killed in Sunday's strikes, local health officials say. Pic: AP
Image:
Children were injured and some were killed in Sunday’s strikes, local health officials say. Pic: AP

In a statement on social media on Sunday evening, the IDF said it had “begun the renewed enforcement of the ceasefire, in line with the terms of the agreement”.

“The IDF will continue to uphold the ceasefire agreement and will respond firmly to any violation of it,” it added.

An Israeli source told Sky News: “The bottom line is that we’re done responding. We are now back to where we were this morning before their attack.”

Fearing the truce may collapse, some Palestinians, many of whom have lacked sufficient food for months, rushed to buy goods from the main market in Nuseirat.

Further south in Khan Younis, other families fled their homes and shelters after airstrikes hit nearby.

Major hurdles still stand in the way of a long-lasting peace in Gaza. An earlier ceasefire collapsed in March when Israel launched a barrage of airstrikes.

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Ceasefire faces toughest test

The new ceasefire began on 10 October, but for days the Israeli government and Hamas have been trading accusations of ceasefire violations.

A senior Egyptian official involved in the ceasefire negotiations said “round-the-clock” contacts were under way to de-escalate the situation.

Israel on Saturday pressed Hamas to returning the remains of all 28 dead hostages as promised under the ceasefire, saying the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt would stay closed “until further notice”.

Hamas says it has no reason to keep the bodies of the remaining hostages, but that it needs special equipment
recover corpses buried under rubble.

A Hamas delegation led by chief negotiator Khalil al Hayya has arrived in Cairo to follow up the implementation of the ceasefire deal with mediators and other Palestinian groups.

The next stages are expected to focus on disarming Hamas, Israeli withdrawal from additional areas it controls in Gaza, and future governance of the devastated territory.

The US plan proposes the establishment of an internationally-backed authority.

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Florida fires coach Napier after 3-4 start in ’25

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Florida fires coach Napier after 3-4 start in '25

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida fired coach Billy Napier on Sunday, a day after an error-filled win against Mississippi State that included more head-scratching calls and offensive lulls like those that marked much of his four-year run with the Gators.

Athletic director Scott Stricklin made the move following a 23-21 victory that improved the Gators’ record to 3-4 but looked as if it was going to be a gut-wrenching loss until defensive tackle Michai Boireau picked off a pass with 21 seconds left and the Bulldogs near field goal range.

The game-sealing takeaway energized The Swamp, but the home crowd quickly turned on Napier and booed him as he sprinted off the field. Stricklin had seen enough and pulled the plug on a run that most of the Florida faithful thought lasted longer than it should have.

Florida owes Napier roughly $21 million, with half of that buyout due within 30 days. The rest will be spread over three annual installments beginning next summer, meaning that, since the Gators are still paying former coach Dan Mullen, they will be paying three head coaches for the second time in seven years once they hire Napier’s replacement; they did the same with Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Mullen in 2018.

Napier went 22-23 in four seasons at Florida, including 12-16 in SEC play. He was 5-17 against ranked opponents, including 0-14 away from home, and declined to give up his playcalling role despite calls to do so.

Equally damning: His 3-12 mark against rivals Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Tennessee includes the fewest wins by a Florida coach in such games since the late 1930s.

Napier is the first full-time coach at Florida to finish his tenure with a losing record since Raymond Wolf (1946 to ’49).

“Making this decision during the open date provides our team valuable time to regroup, refocus, and prepare for the challenges ahead. The timing also allows us to conduct a thoughtful, thorough, and well-informed search for our next head coach. We remain fully committed to utilizing every resource available to identify the right leader to guide Gators Football into the future,” Stricklin said in a statement.

“I will conduct the search with a high degree of confidentiality to protect the privacy of those involved. The search will focus on the hiring of an elite football coach who will embody the standard we have at the University of Florida, and we will continue to provide all of the necessary resources for that coach, his staff and the players to be successful.”

Receivers coach Billy Gonzales was named interim for Florida’s remaining five games, beginning against rival Georgia (6-1, 4-1 Southeastern Conference) on Nov. 1 in Jacksonville. The Gators (3-4, 2-2) have an off week to regroup from the chaos that often comes with a coaching change.

Jettisoning Napier will temporarily quell a frustrated fanbase, but the group won’t truly be satisfied until the Gators hire someone with a proven track record at college football’s highest level.

Napier sealed his fate against the Bulldogs. He dialed up a QB rollout on a third-and-1 play in the waning minutes that led to a punt and gave Mississippi State a chance down the stretch. He also called a QB keeper on a third-and-7 play earlier in the game, botched the final possession before halftime and was flagged for having 12 men on the field during a 2-point try.

It was a fitting end for a coach who often looked in over his head in the powerhouse SEC. Between repeated penalties, game organization issues, clock management miscues and running an offensive scheme that was as predictable as it was pedestrian, Napier stuck around longer than many thought he deserved.

Stricklin gave the coach a public vote of confidence shortly before the Gators won their final four games of 2024. They hoped to carry that momentum into Napier’s fourth season, but quarterback DJ Lagway was out close to eight months recovering from injuries — and it showed.

Lagway looked mostly lost in the pocket as Florida struggled to move the ball. Suddenly, the two-time Sun Belt Conference coach of the year, who gained fame at his previous stop by saying “scared money don’t make money,” seemed afraid to get the ball down the field the way Lagway did with such ease as a freshman.

Most outsiders saw this ending coming. Although Napier accomplished plenty while helping the program navigate name, image and likeness compensation and revenue sharing, he churned through assistants while failing to find much consistency on either side of the ball.

“The standards and expectations for Gators football are to win championships — not simply to compete. We exist to win, and will not settle for less. UF has never been more invested in the success of this football program — elite facilities, robust NIL opportunities and comprehensive support for our student athletes and staff — than we are today,” Strickland said.

“The University of Florida is a destination — a place where people come to achieve excellence. With our resources, passionate fan base, and unwavering commitment, we are determined to return Gators football to championship form. I understand and accept the responsibility to deliver a football program that reflects the greatness of this university and I thank Gator Nation for their continued support as we begin this next chapter together.”

Florida hired Napier in 2021 after he went 40-12 in four seasons as Louisiana’s coach.

The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.

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Tide, Dawgs into AP top 5; Vandy soars to No. 10

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Tide, Dawgs into AP top 5; Vandy soars to No. 10

Vanderbilt is a top-10 team in college football for the first time since 1947 in an Associated Press Top 25 poll that got a nearly complete makeover Sunday after a weekend during which nine ranked teams lost.

Ohio State was the only team to hold its spot, remaining No. 1 for an eighth straight week after shutting out Wisconsin 34-0 on the road.

Beyond the Buckeyes, significant revision was required with four top-10 teams losing in the same week for a third time this season. Nine Top 25 losing teams were the most since Week 5 in 2022, when 10 went down, according to Sportradar. Four of the losses this week were to unranked opponents.

The Buckeyes received 60 first-place votes, 10 more than a week ago. No. 2 Indiana pulled away from Michigan State, improved its program-record ranking by one spot and received the other six first-place votes.

Ohio State’s 10 straight appearances in the top five is the longest active streak.

Texas A&M‘s one-rung promotion to No. 3 gives the Aggies their highest ranking since 1995. No. 4 Alabama has its highest ranking of the season and No. 5 Georgia returned to the top five after a three-week absence.

Georgia’s 140th consecutive week in the poll is the second-longest active streak to Alabama’s 287.

Oregon, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Miami and Vanderbilt round out the top 10.

The Ducks bounced back from their home loss to Indiana with a lopsided road win over Rutgers.

Georgia Tech, which won at Duke, hadn’t been in the top 10 since 2014 or ranked as high since 2009. Mississippi’s loss to Georgia caused it to slip three spots, and Miami fell seven after losing to unranked Louisville.

Louisville makes its season debut in the Top 25. The No. 19 Cardinals, whose only loss was by three points to Virginia on Oct. 4, were 0-18 all time against top-10 teams in true road games before knocking off the Hurricanes.

At No. 16, Virginia’s ranking is its highest since 2007.

Vanderbilt rallied from its loss at Alabama two weeks ago with a 31-24 win over then-No. 10 LSU. The Commodores earned a seven-spot promotion for their first win over the Tigers since 1990. At 6-1, Vandy is off to its best start since 1950, with two wins over ranked opponents.

Vanderbilt’s top-10 ranking is its fifth in program history. The others were in 1937 (once), 1941 (once) and 1947 (twice).

Texas Tech‘s first loss came at Arizona State and dropped the Red Raiders seven spots to No. 14.

LSU took the biggest fall, plunging 10 spots to No. 20 for its lowest ranking of the season.

No. 23 Illinois returned despite being idle. The Illini had dropped out for the first time this season after a home loss to Ohio State.

No. 24 Arizona State, which fell out of the poll after a 32-point loss at Utah, returned following its first win over a top-10 opponent since 2019.

No. 25 Michigan‘s 17-point home win over Washington returned the Wolverines to the rankings after a one-week absence.

USC (No. 20 entering this week), Memphis (22), Utah (23) and Nebraska (25) dropped out.

CONFERENCE CALL

SEC (10): Nos. 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 20, 22.

Big Ten (5): Nos. 1, 2, 6, 23, 25.

Big 12 (4): Nos. 11, 14, 21, 24.

ACC (4): Nos. 7, 9, 16, 19.

American (1): No. 18.

Independent (1): No. 12.

RANKED VS. RANKED

No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0) at No. 20 LSU (5-2): The home team has won the past eight meetings. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier threw three second-half interceptions and Marcel Reed came off the bench to run for three TDs in the Aggies’ 38-23 win last season.

No. 8 Mississippi (6-1) at No. 13 Oklahoma (6-1): This will be only their third all-time meeting. The Rebels recorded nine sacks in a 26-14 win last season.

No. 15 Missouri (6-1) at No. 10 Vanderbilt (6-1): Vandy kicker Brock Taylor has made 17 consecutive field goal attempts since missing a 31-yarder that gave the Tigers a 30-27 double-overtime win last season.

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