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WASHINGTON (AP) From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers.

The Fed is widely expected to do so this year probably several times. Inflation, as measured by its preferred gauge, rose in the second half of 2023 at an annual rate of about 2%  the Fed’s target level. Yet this week, several central bank officials underscored that they werent ready to pull the trigger just yet.

Why, with inflation nearly conquered and the Fed’s key rate at a 22-year high, isn’t now the time to cut?

Most of the Fed’s policymakers have said they’re optimistic that even as the economy and the job market keep growing, inflation pressures will continue to cool. But they also caution that the economy appears so strong that there’s a real risk that price increases could spike again.

And some are worried that if they cut rates now and inflation re-accelerates, then the Fed could be forced into an about-face and have to raise rates again.

“History tells many stories of inflation head-fakes,” said Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, in a speech Thursday.

Inflation had seemed defeated in 1986, Barkin noted, when Paul Volcker was Fed chair.

The Fed reduced rates, but inflation then escalated again the following year, causing the Fed to reverse course,” he said.

“I would love to avoid that roller-coaster if we can, said, Barkin, who is among 12 Fed officials who vote on interest rate policy this year.

Several officials have said they want more time to see if inflation continues to subside. In the meantime, they note, the economy is solid enough that it can thrive without any rate cuts. Last month, for example, Americas employers delivered a burst of hiring, and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.

Theyre going to be glacial, and take their time, said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. Theyre willing to say, We dont know, but we can afford to wait so were going to wait. “

The sturdiness of the economy has also raised questions about just how effective the Feds 11 rate hikes have been. If higher borrowing rates are only barely restraining the economy, some officials may conclude that high rates should stay in place longer or that few rate cuts will be needed.

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I dont feel theres a sense of urgency here, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, told reporters Tuesday. I think later this year, if things evolve as anticipated, we would be able to start moving the rate down.

Yet their caution carries risks. Right now, the economy appears on track for a soft landing,” in which inflation would be defeated without causing a recession or high unemployment. But the longer that borrowing rates stay high, the higher the risk that many companies and consumers would stop borrowing and spending, weakening the economy and potentially sending it into a recession.

High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates.

The high cost of borrowing has become a headache for David Kelleher’s Chrysler-Jeep dealership just outside of Philadelphia. Just 2 1/2 years ago, Kelleher recalled, his customers could get an auto loan below 3%. Now, they’re lucky to get 5.5%.

Customers who had monthly car lease payments of, say, $400 three years ago are finding that with vehicle prices much higher and interest rates up, their monthly payments would be closer to $650. The trend is pushing many of his customers toward lower-priced used cars or no purchase at all.

We need the government to address the interest rates … and understand that theyve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation,” Kelleher said. If interest rates can come down, I think were going to start selling more cars.

Kelleher is likely to get his wish by May or June, when most economists expect the Fed to start reducing its benchmark rate, which is now at about 5.4%. In December, all but two of the 19 policymakers that participate in the Fed’s policy discussions said they expect the central bank to cut rates this year. (Twelve of those 19 actually get to vote on rate policies each year.)

Yet economic growth has accelerated since then. In the final three months of last year, the economy expanded at an unexpectedly strong 3.3% annual rate. Surveys of manufacturers and service-providers, such as retailers, banks, and shippers, also reported that business perked up last month.

Collectively, the latest reports suggest that the economy may not be headed for a soft landing but rather what some economists call a no landing. By that they mean a scenario in which the economy would remain robust and inflation an ongoing threat, potentially stuck above the Fed’s target. Under this scenario, the Fed would feel compelled to keep rates at elevated levels for an extended period.

Powell said last week that while the Fed wants to see continued strong growth, a strong economy does threaten to send inflation up.

I think that is a risk … that inflation would accelerate, Powell said. I think the greater risk is that it would stabilize at a level meaningfully above 2%. … Thats why we keep our options open here and why were not rushing.”

Other officials this week drove home the point that the Fed is trying to balance the risk of cutting rates too soon which might cause inflation to surge again and keeping rates too high for too long, which could trigger a recession.

At some point, the continued cooling of inflation and labor markets may make it appropriate to reduce rates, Andrea Kugler, a recently appointed Fed governor said Wednesday in her first public speech. On the other hand, if progress on disinflation stalls, it may be appropriate to hold the target range steady at its current level for longer.

Some analysts have pointed to signs that the economy is becoming more productive, or efficient, allowing it grow faster without necessarily increasing inflation. Yet productivity data is notoriously hard to measure, and any meaningful improvement wouldn’t necessarily become apparent for years.

Still, maybe the economy can take higher interest rates than we thought in 2019 before the pandemic, said Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine.

If so, that might not just delay the Fed’s rate cuts, but result in fewer of them. Fed officials are still saying they plan to cut rates perhaps three times this year, below the five or six that some market analysts foresee.

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China poses ‘real national security threats’ to UK, Starmer warns

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China poses 'real national security threats' to UK, Starmer warns

Sir Keir Starmer has warned China poses “real national security threats to the United Kingdom”.

But the prime minister also described China as a “nation of immense scale, ambition and ingenuity” and a “defining force in technology, trade and global governance”.

“The UK needs a China policy that recognises this reality,” he added in a speech at the Guildhall in London.

“Instead, for years we have blown hot and cold.

“So our response will not be driven by fear, nor softened by illusion. It will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters
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Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters

Describing the absence of engagement with China – the world’s second-biggest economy – as “staggering” and “a dereliction of duty”, Sir Keir said: “This is not a question of balancing economic and security considerations. We don’t trade off security in one area, for a bit more economic access somewhere else.

“Protecting our security is non-negotiable – our first duty. But by taking tough steps to keep us secure, we enable ourselves to cooperate in other areas.”

Sir Keir’s remarks come after MPs and parliamentarians were warned last month of new attempts to spy on them by China.

And they follow the collapse of a prosecution of two people suspected of spying on behalf of China.

That case led to controversy over how the government under Labour responded to the Crown Prosecution Service’s requests for evidence.

Speech at the annual Lady Mayor's Banquet. Pic: Reuters
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Speech at the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet. Pic: Reuters

At the time, Sir Keir sought to blame the previous Conservative government for the issues, which centred on whether China could be designated an “enemy” under First World War-era legislation.

Meanwhile, Sky News understands the prime minister is set to approve plans for a controversial Chinese “super embassy” in central London.

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A final decision on the planning application for the former Royal Mint site near the Tower of London is due on 10 December, after numerous previous delays.

Sir Keir is also understood to be preparing for a likely visit to China in the new year.

Since he was elected last year, Sir Keir has been active on the world stage, trumpeting deals with the US, India and the EU and leading the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine.

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PM preparing for likely China visit

But he has also faced criticism from his opponents, who accuse him of spending too much time out of the UK attending international summits rather than focusing on domestic issues.

Sir Keir offered a defence of his approach, describing it as “the biggest shift in British foreign policy since Brexit” and “a decisive move to face outward again”.

While saying he would “always respect” the Brexit vote as a “fair, democratic expression”, he said the way the UK’s departure from the EU had been “sold and delivered” was “simply wrong”.

He said: “Wild promises were made to the British people and not fulfilled. We are still dealing with the consequences today.”

In his speech on Monday, the prime minister accused opposition politicians of offering a “corrosive, inward-looking attitude” on international affairs.

Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters

Taking aim at those who advocate leaving the European Convention on Human Rights or NATO, he said they offered “grievance rather than hope” and “a declinist vision of a lesser Britain”.

Sir Keir said: “Moreover, it is a fatal misreading of the moment, ducking the fundamental challenge posed by a chaotic world – a world which is more dangerous and unstable than at any point for a generation, where international events reach directly into our lives, whether we like it or not.”

He added: “In these times, we deliver for Britain by looking outward with renewed purpose and pride, not by shrinking back. In these times, internationalism is patriotism.”

Responding to the prime minister’s speech, shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel said: “From China’s continued flouting of economic rules to transnational repression of Hong Kongers in Britain, Starmer’s ‘reset’ with Beijing is a naive one-way street, which puts Britain at risk while Beijing gets everything it wants.

“Starmer continues to kowtow to China and is captivated by half-baked promises of trade.

“Coming just days after the latest Chinese plot to interfere in our democracy was exposed, his love letter to the Chinese Communist Party is a desperate ploy to generate economic growth following his budget of lies and is completely ill-judged.

“While China poses a clear threat to Britain, China continues to back Iran and Russia, and plots to undermine our institutions. Keir Starmer has become Beijing’s useful idiot in Britain.”

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OBR chief Richard Hughes resigns after budget leak investigation

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OBR chief Richard Hughes resigns after budget leak investigation

The chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has resigned after an investigation into the leak of last week’s budget criticised the watchdog’s leadership.

Richard Hughes stepped down following the publication of a report into the early release of Rachel Reeves’s fiscal event.

The OBR’s official forecast, which revealed the contents of the record-breaking tax rise budget, was accessed at 11.35am last Wednesday, about an hour before the chancellor stood up to deliver it.

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Rachel Reeves said she only found out about the leak when she was in the House of Commons
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Rachel Reeves said she only found out about the leak when she was in the House of Commons

In a letter to Ms Reeves and the chairwoman of the Commons Treasury Committee Dame Meg Hillier, Mr Hughes said he was quitting to allow the OBR to “quickly move on from this regrettable incident”.

He said he took “full responsibility” for “the shortcomings identified in the report”.

Mr Hughes said: “By implementing the recommendations in this report, I am certain the OBR can quickly regain and restore the confidence and esteem that it has earned through 15 years of rigorous, independent economic analysis.”

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An investigation ordered by the independent fiscal forecaster soon after the budget called the leak “the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR” and strongly criticised the watchdog’s processes for protecting sensitive information.

The probe found there was “nothing to suggest” the premature access was the result of “hostile cyber activity by foreign actors or cyber criminals, or of connivance by anyone working for the OBR”.

“Nor was it simply a matter of pressing the publication button on a locally managed website too early,” the report stated.

It concluded that “configuration errors” led to “a failure to ensure the protections which hide documents from public view immediately before publication were in place”.

“The ultimate responsibility for the circumstances in which this vulnerability occurred and was then exposed rests, over the years, with the leadership of the OBR,” the investigation said.

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Did Rachel Reeves mislead the nation with her budget?

Kemi Badenoch claimed that Ms Reeves was trying to use Mr Hughes as a “human shield”.

The Conservative leader said on social media: “More serious questions for the chancellor as she tries to make Richard Hughes her human shield.

“Her actions have turned this into a full blown political crisis for the government. If [Prime Minister] Keir Starmer had a backbone, he would have sacked Reeves long ago.”

Mr Hughes had been under pressure to explain the leak, which he immediately apologised for, and ordered the investigation.

It is also led by Professor David Miles and Tom Josephs, with Baroness Sarah Hogg and Dame Susan Rice as non-executive members.

There are 52 permanent staff, who are civil servants, with six of those working on the strategy, operations and communications team.

The report acknowledged the leak “changed the pattern of budget day to the chancellor’s disadvantage”.

Read more:
The budget’s key points
‘Of course I didn’t’ lie about budget forecasts – Reeves

OBR’s budget leak timeline on 26 November

5.10am: OBR website host emailed staff to confirm server modification to accommodate higher website traffic when the forecast is released

5.16am: A request was made to access the forecast document’s web address, but the PDF had not been uploaded yet. Between this time and 11.30am there were 44 unsuccessful requests to the URL from seven unique IP addresses

9am onwards: The web developer set up webpages in draft form in the content management system, creating IDS for all the downloads to be used across the website

11.02am: PDF documents were emailed to the web developer, including the forecast

11.03am-11.35am: The web developer began uploading documents to the draft area of the OBR website – which was understood by all involved not to be publicly accessible

11.35am: The first successful request to the document’s URL was made. This IP address had made 32 unsuccessful attempts at that URL that morning. There were 43 successful requests between this time and 12.07pm, from 32 unique IP addresses

11.41am: A Reuters news alert is the first evidence of the forecast being available publicly

11.43am: The OBR was first made aware by a non-Reuters journalist that Reuters was flashing forecast details. OBR staff, not knowing the URL was accessible even if known or guessed, found no evidence via webpages going live accidentally

11.50am onwards: Images and facts from the forecast began appearing widely online from many people

11.52am: Senior OBR and Treasury officials had a phone call to discuss the breach. Treasury staff made OBR staff aware of the URL

11.53am: OBR staff and the web developer tried to pull the PDF from the website, and to pull the entire website, but struggled to initially due to the website being overloaded with traffic

11.58am: A Reuters journalist emailed the OBR confirming they had published details and asked for a comment

12.07pm: The forecast PDF was renamed by the web developer, but it still appeared on the internet archive via search engines

12.08pm: The PDF was removed from the website’s content management system, taking it offline. The OBR chair and staff drafted a statement setting out what had happened and confirming its website was the source of the error

12.15pm: the statement was posted on the OBR’s website and on X

12.34pm: Chancellor’s budget statement began

1.38pm: The chancellor’s statement ended and the forecast and supporting documents were pushed live

It revealed the OBR’s spring statement 2025 was also accessed ahead of time, but said the likely explanation “is benign”.

And it said last week’s budget forecast document had multiple attempts to access it before it was inadvertently made accessible online.

The investigation partly blamed the Treasury and the Cabinet Office, as the OBR’s IT services were moved on to the Treasury’s shared systems in 2023 to “align more closely with Treasury security arrangements”, particularly around the sharing of sensitive budget information between the OBR and Treasury.

It said the Treasury should pay “greater attention” when setting the OBR’s budget, currently £6.4m, to the need for adequate support.

The investigation said there was pressure on the small team involved to ensure the full economic and fiscal outlook was published when the chancellor sat down after giving her budget, so a pre-publication “facility” was used.

But this commonly used device created a “potential vulnerability if not configured properly” and had not received the same amount of attention by the OBR as it had placed on security of communications with the Treasury “during the long period of run-up to the budget”.

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Starmer says he did not mislead the public

An outside web developer, who has helped the OBR team since it came into existence 15 years ago, assists the internal team and manages content and uploads at times of pressure, including the release of the budget forecast.

The report said the risks of this approach have increased over the years as technologies have developed and online threats have risen.

“With hindsight, it is clear that over the years this arrangement should have been regularly reexamined and assessed by the management of the OBR,” the report said.

It recommended the process for publishing forecasts should “immediately” be removed from the OBR’s locally managed website, which is a WordPress website, and published as part of a government website.

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