The Fed hesitant to cut interest rates though inflation is nearly back to 2%

Published

1 year ago

February 13, 2024

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WASHINGTON (AP) From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers.

The Fed is widely expected to do so this year probably several times. Inflation, as measured by its preferred gauge, rose in the second half of 2023 at an annual rate of about 2% the Fed’s target level. Yet this week, several central bank officials underscored that they werent ready to pull the trigger just yet.

Why, with inflation nearly conquered and the Fed’s key rate at a 22-year high, isn’t now the time to cut?

Most of the Fed’s policymakers have said they’re optimistic that even as the economy and the job market keep growing, inflation pressures will continue to cool. But they also caution that the economy appears so strong that there’s a real risk that price increases could spike again.

And some are worried that if they cut rates now and inflation re-accelerates, then the Fed could be forced into an about-face and have to raise rates again.

“History tells many stories of inflation head-fakes,” said Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, in a speech Thursday.

Inflation had seemed defeated in 1986, Barkin noted, when Paul Volcker was Fed chair.

The Fed reduced rates, but inflation then escalated again the following year, causing the Fed to reverse course,” he said.

“I would love to avoid that roller-coaster if we can, said, Barkin, who is among 12 Fed officials who vote on interest rate policy this year.

Several officials have said they want more time to see if inflation continues to subside. In the meantime, they note, the economy is solid enough that it can thrive without any rate cuts. Last month, for example, Americas employers delivered a burst of hiring, and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.

Theyre going to be glacial, and take their time, said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. Theyre willing to say, We dont know, but we can afford to wait so were going to wait. “

The sturdiness of the economy has also raised questions about just how effective the Feds 11 rate hikes have been. If higher borrowing rates are only barely restraining the economy, some officials may conclude that high rates should stay in place longer or that few rate cuts will be needed.

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I dont feel theres a sense of urgency here, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, told reporters Tuesday. I think later this year, if things evolve as anticipated, we would be able to start moving the rate down.

Yet their caution carries risks. Right now, the economy appears on track for a soft landing,” in which inflation would be defeated without causing a recession or high unemployment. But the longer that borrowing rates stay high, the higher the risk that many companies and consumers would stop borrowing and spending, weakening the economy and potentially sending it into a recession.

High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates.

The high cost of borrowing has become a headache for David Kelleher’s Chrysler-Jeep dealership just outside of Philadelphia. Just 2 1/2 years ago, Kelleher recalled, his customers could get an auto loan below 3%. Now, they’re lucky to get 5.5%.

Customers who had monthly car lease payments of, say, $400 three years ago are finding that with vehicle prices much higher and interest rates up, their monthly payments would be closer to $650. The trend is pushing many of his customers toward lower-priced used cars or no purchase at all.

We need the government to address the interest rates … and understand that theyve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation,” Kelleher said. If interest rates can come down, I think were going to start selling more cars.

Kelleher is likely to get his wish by May or June, when most economists expect the Fed to start reducing its benchmark rate, which is now at about 5.4%. In December, all but two of the 19 policymakers that participate in the Fed’s policy discussions said they expect the central bank to cut rates this year. (Twelve of those 19 actually get to vote on rate policies each year.)

Yet economic growth has accelerated since then. In the final three months of last year, the economy expanded at an unexpectedly strong 3.3% annual rate. Surveys of manufacturers and service-providers, such as retailers, banks, and shippers, also reported that business perked up last month.

Collectively, the latest reports suggest that the economy may not be headed for a soft landing but rather what some economists call a no landing. By that they mean a scenario in which the economy would remain robust and inflation an ongoing threat, potentially stuck above the Fed’s target. Under this scenario, the Fed would feel compelled to keep rates at elevated levels for an extended period.

Powell said last week that while the Fed wants to see continued strong growth, a strong economy does threaten to send inflation up.

I think that is a risk … that inflation would accelerate, Powell said. I think the greater risk is that it would stabilize at a level meaningfully above 2%. … Thats why we keep our options open here and why were not rushing.”

Other officials this week drove home the point that the Fed is trying to balance the risk of cutting rates too soon which might cause inflation to surge again and keeping rates too high for too long, which could trigger a recession.

At some point, the continued cooling of inflation and labor markets may make it appropriate to reduce rates, Andrea Kugler, a recently appointed Fed governor said Wednesday in her first public speech. On the other hand, if progress on disinflation stalls, it may be appropriate to hold the target range steady at its current level for longer.

Some analysts have pointed to signs that the economy is becoming more productive, or efficient, allowing it grow faster without necessarily increasing inflation. Yet productivity data is notoriously hard to measure, and any meaningful improvement wouldn’t necessarily become apparent for years.

Still, maybe the economy can take higher interest rates than we thought in 2019 before the pandemic, said Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine.

If so, that might not just delay the Fed’s rate cuts, but result in fewer of them. Fed officials are still saying they plan to cut rates perhaps three times this year, below the five or six that some market analysts foresee.

UK

Premier League clubs at risk of legal action over unlicensed casino sponsors

Published

3 hours ago

May 25, 2025

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Premier League clubs at risk of legal action over unlicensed casino sponsors

Casinos sponsoring two Premier League clubs are accepting UK customers without a licence, putting club officers at risk of prosecution, Sky News has learned.

The gambling websites, BC.Game and DEBET, are the matchday shirt sponsors of Leicester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, respectively.

But an investigation by anti-gambling advert campaigners, shared with Sky News, suggests the casinos have continued to accept UK customers – despite this becoming unlawful after they lost their licences to operate in the UK.

DEBET lost its licence on 15 May, while BC.Game lost its licence in December 2024.

Neither club has indicated that they intend to end the sponsorships, despite criticism from campaigners and warnings from the Gambling Commission.

With the end of the 2024/25 season this weekend, both clubs are now half-way through two-year sponsorship deals with the casinos – putting them in a difficult position for next season.

The campaign group Coalition to End Gambling Ads (CEGA) told Sky News it was able to make deposits on both gambling websites, despite the sites having no licence to accept UK customers.

CEGA also successfully deposited cash on Burnley FC sponsor 96.com. Burnley are due to be promoted to the Premier League next season.

The findings come one week after the Gambling Commission warned five football clubs, including Wolverhampton and Burnley, that their officers “may be liable to prosecution and, if convicted, face a fine, imprisonment or both if they promote unlicensed gambling businesses that transact with consumers in Great Britain”.

The Commission had issued a similar warning to Leicester City in February.

It made clear then that the clubs must either cut ties with the casinos or ensure they are not accessible to UK customers “by any means” – including virtual private networks (VPNs) – software used to hide a user’s real location.

Other than the need to use a VPN, CEGA director Will Prochaska says it “really wasn’t very difficult” to access the sites.

The Gambling Commission declined to be interviewed by Sky News, but said that “where we have evidence that meets the standard for criminal prosecution we will take appropriate action”.

Head of enforcement at the Commission John Pierce previously said the body would “conduct ongoing spot checks as necessary to ensure they are not accessible to consumers in Great Britain by any means”.

Mr Prochaska, however, said the Commission was taking “far too long” to take action.

“Far too many children, far too many football fans, are seeing these adverts every day,” he said. “It’s got to stop.”

Leicester City’s sponsor has had no UK licence for almost six months

The three sites that appear on the matchday shirts of Leicester, Wolves and Burnley were previously licensed by TGP Europe, a company based on the Isle of Man.

On 15 May, TGP Europe surrendered its UK gambling licence to avoid a £3.3m fine, leaving DEBET and 96.com unable to legally accept UK customers.

Leicester City sponsor BC.Game has been unlicensed in the UK since it parted ways with TGP Europe in December 2024 – almost six months ago.

Mr Prochaska said he contacted Leicester City on 13 March to alert them that BC.Game was still accepting UK customers.

“In fact, it was one of the easiest for me to gamble on – there were very few checks whatsoever,” he says. “But Leicester don’t seem to have done anything about it, and it’s still on the front of their shirts.”

Leicester City FC did not respond to a request for comment.

Sky News was able to sign up to every single site

Bournemouth, Fulham and Newcastle United are also sponsored by casinos that were formerly licensed by TGP Europe, but have been unlicensed since 15 May.

These casinos (bj88, SBOTOP and FUN88) are no longer able to legally accept UK customers.

However, Sky News was able to use a VPN to sign up to all three casinos, as well as those sponsoring Leicester City, Wolverhampton and Burnley.

On all six websites, Sky was able to access QR codes for making cryptocurrency deposits. Sky News did not attempt to make any deposits.

All six casinos are forbidden by law from accepting UK customers.

Yet Burnley sponsor 96.com allowed Sky News to sign up using a Telegram account registered to a UK phone number.

The other websites all required phone numbers to be entered upon registration, which could be used as an additional layer of security to filter out UK customers.

However, most of the websites did not check whether the phone number provided was genuine.

Only one website, Leicester City sponsor BC.Game, did check.

However, after confirming the phone number’s authenticity, BC.Game allowed registration to proceed – even though Sky News had provided a UK phone number.

Sky News presented these findings to the football clubs concerned, to TGP Europe and to the Gambling Commission, but did not receive any comment.

Anyone concerned about their gambling, or that of a loved one, can visit BeGambleAware.org for free, confidential advice and support, or The National Gambling Helpline is available on 0808 8020 133 and operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

UK

Former BBC executive and presenter Alan Yentob dies

Published

3 hours ago

May 25, 2025

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Former BBC executive and presenter Alan Yentob dies

Alan Yentob, the former BBC presenter and executive, has died aged 78.

A statement from his family, shared by the BBC, said Yentob died on Saturday.

His wife Philippa Walker said: “For Jacob, Bella and I, every day with Alan held the promise of something unexpected. Our life was exciting, he was exciting.

“He was curious, funny, annoying, late, and creative in every cell of his body. But more than that, he was the kindest of men and a profoundly moral man. He leaves in his wake a trail of love a mile wide.”

Yentob joined the BBC as a trainee in 1968 and held a number of positions – including controller of BBC One and BBC Two, director of television, and head of music and art.

He was also the director of BBC drama, entertainment, and children’s TV.

Yentob launched CBBC and CBeebies, and his drama commissions included Pride And Prejudice and Middlemarch.

The TV executive was made a Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) by the King in 2024 for services to the arts and media.

In a tribute, the BBC’s director-general Tim Davie said: “Alan Yentob was a towering figure in British broadcasting and the arts. A creative force and a cultural visionary, he shaped decades of programming at the BBC and beyond, with a passion for storytelling and public service that leave a lasting legacy.

“Above all, Alan was a true original. His passion wasn’t performative – it was personal. He believed in the power of culture to enrich, challenge and connect us.”

BBC Radio 4 presenter Amol Rajan described him on Instagram as “such a unique and kind man: an improbable impresario from unlikely origins who became a towering figure in the culture of post-war Britain.

“I commend his spirit to the living.”

UK

Mother and three children who died in house fire in London named by police

Published

4 hours ago

May 25, 2025

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Mother and three children who died in house fire in London named by police

A mother and three of her children who died in a house fire in northwest London have been named by police.

Warning: This article contains pictures of a fire in which people died

Detectives say Nusrat Usman, 43, Maryam Mikaiel, 15, Musa Usman, eight, and Raees Usman, four, died following the fire in Stonebridge, near Wembley, in the early hours of Saturday.

A woman in her 70s was taken to hospital but has since been released. A 13-year-old girl remains in hospital in a critical condition.

A 41-year-old man was arrested at the scene and has since been bailed. He was subsequently detained under the Mental Health Act.

Flowers and a blue teddy bear have been left near the scene, where crews wearing helmets and respiratory equipment were seen building scaffolding against the burnt-out buildings.

Neighbour Cecilia Marquis, 60, said she was “stunned by the devastation”.

“This will leave a devastating impact,” Ms Marquis, who witnessed the fire, said.

Witness Mohamed Labidi, 38, said he “can’t even look at the house right now”.

“We used to socialise together.

“They’re very good people, no problems on their side at all. It’s really shocking. It’s a really strong community here, we look after each other.”

A neighbour, who asked not to be named, said: “It’s horrible, we saw people running outside.

“It’s hard to process. I only just moved in, so it’s hard to think about it.”

Eight fire engines and around 60 firefighters responded to the blaze, London Fire Brigade (LFB) said.

Two terrace houses, each with three floors, were severely damaged in the fire, which was under control by around 3.25am, the fire service added.

Superintendent Steve Allen, from the Met’s local policing team in northwest London, said: “Our thoughts go out to all those impacted by what has happened.

“Specialist officers are continuing to support the wider family who have asked for privacy at this deeply upsetting time.

“Local officers are working closely with officers from the Specialist Crime Command on what continues to be a very complex investigation.”

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said in a post on X: “This is devastating news and my thoughts are with the family, friends and wider community of the four people who sadly have lost their lives.

“I remain in close contact with the London Fire Brigade and Metropolitan Police as they work to establish the cause of the fire and offer support to all those impacted.”

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