Votes are being counted in the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections, where Labour will be looking to capitalise on the UK entering a recession to inflict a double defeat on Rishi Sunak.
The Tories are defending traditionally safe seats in South Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire, following the departures of Chris Skidmore and Peter Bone, respectively.
But the polls in both seats opened on the same day the UK economy officially entered recession, throwing into question Mr Sunak’s pledge to grow the economy and handing Labour the attack line of “Rishi’s recession”.
However, the Labour Party is enduring trouble of its own following the fallout over its candidate in the Rochdale by-election, which takes place later this month.
Conservatives have privately admitted that their party is braced for defeats in both by-elections, given the circumstances in which both Mr Bone and Mr Skidmore left parliament.
The Conservatives said after the polls closed that they have fought “robust campaigns” in both seats – but that winning was “always going to be hard”. They added that the government rarely wins by-elections.
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If the Tories lose both seats, it would signal a new post-war record of the most Conservative seats lost in by-elections in one parliament – overtaking the Major administration between 1992 and 1997.
On the Labour side, Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, said both seats were beyond their target list – and it will “be some time before we know the results”.
Mr Skidmore quit his Kingswood seat, where the Tory majority is 11,220, over what he believed to be the government’s scaling back of green policies, specifically its plans to offer new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
At the next election, the Kingswood seat will cease to exist owing to the boundary review.
It is understood the Conservatives see both by-elections as the “worst possible circumstances” that are not comparable to a general election. They hope the swing away from the party will be smaller than the losses they endured in Tamworth and Selby last year, where the swing was more than 20% towards Labour.
Neither Mr Sunak nor any high-profile cabinet ministers have been seen in either Wellingborough or Kingswood in an indication of how the Tories are prioritising resources into mayoral contests in May and the general election, which is expected in the autumn.
The Tories are also braced for a good performance of rivals the Reform Party, which is expecting its best-ever result in Wellingborough.
Sources in the Reform Party have said they are aiming for their polling average of around 10%.
Labour, meanwhile, has sought to manage expectations given it hasn’t held both seats for a number of years.
Image: Votes are counted for the Kingswood by-election at the Thornbury Leisure Centre, Gloucestershire.
‘Rishi’s recession’
A recession is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts rather than grows.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that gross domestic product (GDP), a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December.
In response, the chancellor pointed to the fact the rate of inflation remained at 4% yesterday, despite forecasters predicting a rise.
Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remained “the single biggest barrier to growth” and added: “Low growth is not a surprise.”
He insisted there were “signs the British economy is turning a corner” and the UK must “stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy”.
But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said that while the GDP figures are “provisional and may change”, it was “absolutely clear that Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline”.
Ms Reeves said the prime minister’s promise to grow the economy had been “broken” and he had “now put the economy into reverse”.
“This is Rishi’s recession and it is the British people who will pay the price,” she said.
While Labour is still 19% ahead in the polls, according to Sky News’ poll tracker, the party has been enduring trouble of its own after it was forced to withdraw support of its candidate in the Rochdale by-election of 29 February over alleged antisemitic remarks.
While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer argued he had taken “decisive action” concerning Mr Ali, the Tories have criticised the fact that Labour only withdrew support for Mr Ali in Rochdale when further comments came to light.
Labour was then rocked by revelations that another parliamentary candidate and former MP, Graham Jones, allegedly referred to “f***ing Israel” during the same meeting where Mr Ali made his initial comments – resulting in his suspension.
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Voters began casting their ballots in Thursday’s by-elections at 7am, with polling stations shutting their doors at 10pm.
Both results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning – and Sky News will bring you the news, analysis and reaction on a special programme from midnight, as well as online in the Politics Hub.
Appointing Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US was “worth the risk”, a minister has told Sky News.
Peter Kyle said the government put the Labour peer forward for the Washington role, despite knowing he had a “strong relationship” with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
It is this relationship that led to Peter Mandelson being fired on Thursday by the prime minister.
Image: Lord Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein. File pic
But explaining the decision to appoint Lord Mandelson, Business Secretary Mr Kyle said: “The risk of appointing [him] knowing what was already public was worth the risk.
“Now, of course, we’ve seen the emails which were not published at the time, were not public and not even known about. And that has changed this situation.”
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, he rejected the suggestion that Lord Mandelson was appointed to Washington before security checks were completed.
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He explained there was a two-stage vetting process for Lord Mandelson before he took on the ambassador role.
The first was done by the Cabinet Office, while the second was a “political process where there were political conversations done in Number 10 about all the other aspects of an appointment”, he said.
This is an apparent reference to Sir Keir Starmer asking follow-up questions based on the information provided by the vetting.
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21:50
‘We knew it was a strong relationship’
These are believed to have included why Lord Mandelson continued contact with Epstein after he was convicted and why he was reported to have stayed in one of the paedophile financier’s homes while he was in prison.
Mr Kyle said: “Both of these things turned up information that was already public, and a decision was made based on Peter’s singular talents in this area, that the risk of appointing knowing what was already public was worth the risk.”
Mr Kyle also pointed to some of the government’s achievements under Lord Mandelson, such as the UK becoming the first country to sign a trade deal with the US, and President Donald Trump’s state visit next week.
Mr Kyle also admitted that the government knew that Lord Mandelson and Epstein had “a strong relationship”.
“We knew that there were risks involved,” he concluded.
PM had only ‘extracts of emails’ ahead of defence of Mandelson at PMQs – as Tories accuse him of ‘lying’
Speaking to Sky News, Kyle also sought to clarify the timeline of what Sir Keir Starmer knew about Lord Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein, and when he found this out.
Allegations about Lord Mandelson began to emerge in the newspapers on Tuesday, while more serious allegations – that the Labour peer had suggested Epstein’s first conviction for sexual offences was wrongful and should be challenged – were sent to the Foreign Office on the same day by Bloomberg, which was seeking a response from the government.
But the following day, Sir Keir went into the House of Commons and publicly backed Britain’s man in Washington, giving him his full confidence. Only the next morning – on Thursday – did the PM then sack Lord Mandelson, a decision Downing Street has insisted was made based on “new information”.
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7:53
Vetting ‘is very thorough’
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Kyle said: “Number 10 had what was publicly available on Tuesday, which was extracts of emails which were not in context, and they weren’t the full email.
“Immediately upon having being alerted to extracts of emails, the Foreign Office contacted Peter Mandelson and asked for his account of the emails and asked for them to be put into context and for his response. That response did not come before PMQs [on Wednesday].
“Then after PMQs, the full emails were released by Bloomberg in the evening.
“By the first thing the next morning when the prime minister had time to read the emails in full, having had them in full and reading them almost immediately of having them – Peter was withdrawn as ambassador.”
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4:48
Government deeming Mandelson to be ‘worth the risk’ is unlikely to calm Labour MPs
The Conservatives have claimed Sir Keir is lying about what he knew, with Laura Trott telling Sky News there are “grave questions about the prime minister’s judgement”.
The shadow education secretary called for “transparency”, and told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “We need to understand what was known and when.”
Image: Laura Trott says there are ‘grave questions about the prime minister’s judgement’
They believe that Sir Keir was in possession of the full emails on Tuesday, because the Foreign Office passed these to Number 10. This is despite the PM backing Mandelson the following day.
Ms Trott explained: “We are calling for transparency because, if what we have outlined is correct, then the prime minister did lie and that is an extremely, extremely serious thing to have happened.”
She added: “This was a prime minister who stood on the steps of Downing Street and said that he was going to restore political integrity and look where we are now. We’ve had two senior resignations in the space of the number of weeks.
“The prime minister’s authority is completely shot.”
But Ms Trott refused to be drawn on whether she thinks Sir Keir should resign, only stating that he is “a rudderless, a weak prime minister whose authority is shot at a time we can least afford it as a country”.
If you want to know why so many Labour MPs are seething over the government’s response to the Mandelson saga, look no further than my mobile phone at 9.12am this Sunday.
At the top of the screen is a news notification about an interview with the family of a victim of the notorious paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, saying his close friend Peter Mandelson should “never have been made” US ambassador.
Directly below that, a Sky News notification on the business secretary’s interview, explaining that the appointment of Lord Mandelson to the job was judged to be “worth the risk” at the time.
Peter Kyle went on to praise Lord Mandelson’s “outstanding” and “singular” talents and the benefits that he could bring to the US-UK relationship.
While perhaps surprisingly candid in nature about the decision-making process that goes on in government, this interview is unlikely to calm concerns within Labour.
Quite the opposite.
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For many in the party, this is a wholly different debate to a simple cost-benefit calculation of potential political harm.
As one long-time party figure put it to my colleague Sam Coates: “I don’t care about Number Ten or what this means for Keir or any of that as much as I care that this culture of turning a blind eye to horrendous behaviour is endemic at the top of society and Peter Kyle has literally just come out and said it out loud.
“He was too talented and the special relationship too fraught for his misdeeds to matter enough. It’s just disgusting.”
There are two problems for Downing Street here.
The first is that you now have a government which – after being elected on the promise to restore high standards – appears to be admitting that previous indiscretions can be overlooked if the cause is important enough.
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4:48
Government deeming Mandelson to be ‘worth the risk’ is unlikely to calm Labour MPs
Package that up with other scandals that have resulted in departures – Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq, Angela Rayner – and you start to get a stink that becomes hard to shift.
The second is that it once again demonstrates an apparent lack of ability in government to see around corners and deal with political and policy crises, before they start knocking lumps out of the Prime Minister.
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2:22
Sir Keir Starmer is facing questions over the appointment and subsequent sacking of Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US.
Remember, for many the cardinal sin here was not necessarily the original appointment of Mandelson (while eyebrows were raised at the time, there was nowhere near the scale of outrage we’ve had in the last week with many career diplomats even agreeing the with logic of the choice) but the fact that Sir Keir Starmer walked into PMQs and gave the ambassador his full-throated backing when it was becoming clear to many around Westminster that he simply wouldn’t be able to stay in post.
The explanation from Downing Street is essentially that a process was playing out, and you shouldn’t sack an ambassador based on a media enquiry alone.
But good process doesn’t always align with good politics.
Something this barrister-turned-politician may now be finding out the hard way.
A man has admitted arson after a major fire at an MP’s constituency office.
Joshua Oliver, 28, pleaded guilty to starting the fire which destroyed the office of Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, at Vermont House in Washington, Tyne and Wear.
The fire also wrecked a small charity for people with very rare genetic diseases and an NHS mental health service for veterans.
The guilty plea was entered at Newcastle Magistrates’ Court on the basis that it was reckless rather than intentional.
Image: Hodgson, who has been an MP since 2005, winning her seat again in 2019. Pic: Reuters
The Crown did not accept that basis of plea.
Oliver, of no fixed address, had been living in a tent nearby, the court heard.
Northumbria Police previously said it was “alerted to a fire at a premises on Woodland Terrace in the Washington area” shortly after 12.20am on Thursday.
“Emergency services attended and no one is reported to have been injured in the incident,” it added.
Drone footage from the scene showed extensive damage to the building.
A spokesperson for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “Our prosecutors have worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.
“We have worked closely with Northumbria Police as they carried out their investigation.”
Oliver was remanded in custody and will appear at Newcastle Crown Court on Tuesday, 14 October.