Polls close in Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections as Labour hope to inflict double defeat on Rishi Sunak

Published

1 year ago

February 15, 2024

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Votes are being counted in the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections, where Labour will be looking to capitalise on the UK entering a recession to inflict a double defeat on Rishi Sunak.

The Tories are defending traditionally safe seats in South Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire, following the departures of Chris Skidmore and Peter Bone, respectively.

But the polls in both seats opened on the same day the UK economy officially entered recession, throwing into question Mr Sunak’s pledge to grow the economy and handing Labour the attack line of “Rishi’s recession”.

However, the Labour Party is enduring trouble of its own following the fallout over its candidate in the Rochdale by-election, which takes place later this month.

Conservatives have privately admitted that their party is braced for defeats in both by-elections, given the circumstances in which both Mr Bone and Mr Skidmore left parliament.

Politics latest: Votes being counted in by-elections

The Conservatives said after the polls closed that they have fought “robust campaigns” in both seats – but that winning was “always going to be hard”. They added that the government rarely wins by-elections.

If the Tories lose both seats, it would signal a new post-war record of the most Conservative seats lost in by-elections in one parliament – overtaking the Major administration between 1992 and 1997.

On the Labour side, Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, said both seats were beyond their target list – and it will “be some time before we know the results”.

The Wellingborough seat, which the Tories currently hold with an 18,540 majority, was vacated after Mr Bone was found by parliament to have subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct – allegations he has denied.

Mr Skidmore quit his Kingswood seat, where the Tory majority is 11,220, over what he believed to be the government’s scaling back of green policies, specifically its plans to offer new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.

At the next election, the Kingswood seat will cease to exist owing to the boundary review.

It is understood the Conservatives see both by-elections as the “worst possible circumstances” that are not comparable to a general election. They hope the swing away from the party will be smaller than the losses they endured in Tamworth and Selby last year, where the swing was more than 20% towards Labour.

Neither Mr Sunak nor any high-profile cabinet ministers have been seen in either Wellingborough or Kingswood in an indication of how the Tories are prioritising resources into mayoral contests in May and the general election, which is expected in the autumn.

The Tories are also braced for a good performance of rivals the Reform Party, which is expecting its best-ever result in Wellingborough.

Sources in the Reform Party have said they are aiming for their polling average of around 10%.

Labour, meanwhile, has sought to manage expectations given it hasn’t held both seats for a number of years.

‘Rishi’s recession’

A recession is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts rather than grows.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that gross domestic product (GDP), a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December.

In response, the chancellor pointed to the fact the rate of inflation remained at 4% yesterday, despite forecasters predicting a rise.

Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remained “the single biggest barrier to growth” and added: “Low growth is not a surprise.”

He insisted there were “signs the British economy is turning a corner” and the UK must “stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy”.

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said that while the GDP figures are “provisional and may change”, it was “absolutely clear that Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline”.

Ms Reeves said the prime minister’s promise to grow the economy had been “broken” and he had “now put the economy into reverse”.

“This is Rishi’s recession and it is the British people who will pay the price,” she said.

While Labour is still 19% ahead in the polls, according to Sky News’ poll tracker, the party has been enduring trouble of its own after it was forced to withdraw support of its candidate in the Rochdale by-election of 29 February over alleged antisemitic remarks.

While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer argued he had taken “decisive action” concerning Mr Ali, the Tories have criticised the fact that Labour only withdrew support for Mr Ali in Rochdale when further comments came to light.

Labour was then rocked by revelations that another parliamentary candidate and former MP, Graham Jones, allegedly referred to “f***ing Israel” during the same meeting where Mr Ali made his initial comments – resulting in his suspension.

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Voters began casting their ballots in Thursday’s by-elections at 7am, with polling stations shutting their doors at 10pm.

Both results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning – and Sky News will bring you the news, analysis and reaction on a special programme from midnight, as well as online in the Politics Hub.

Politics

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

Published

2 hours ago

May 14, 2025

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Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

Bitcoin’s fluctuating correlation with US equities is raising questions about its role as a global safe-haven asset during periods of financial stress.

Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US stock market when analyzing the short-term, seven-day trailing correlation, according to new research from blockchain data provider RedStone Oracles, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.

However, RedStone said that the 30-day indicator signals a “variable correlation” between Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index, with the correlation coefficient ranging from -0.2 to 0.4.

This fluctuating correlation suggests that Bitcoin “doesn’t consistently function as a true hedge for equities” due to its lack of a strong negative correlation below -0.3, which is needed for “reliable counter movement during market stress,” the report said.

The research suggests that while Bitcoin may not be a dependable hedge against stock market declines, it offers value as a portfolio diversifier.

This fluctuating dynamic signals that Bitcoin often moves independently from other assets, potentially offering additional returns while other assets are struggling. Still, Bitcoin has yet to mirror the safe-haven dynamics of gold and government bonds, RedStone suggests.

Bitcoin needs to “mature” before decoupling from stock market

While Bitcoin is poised to grow into a safe-haven asset in the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency still needs to “mature” as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone.

“Bitcoin still needs to mature before decoupling from stock markets,” Kazmierczak told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Increased institutional adoption will absolutely help — we’re already seeing this effect with corporate treasury investments reducing Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility and with BlackRock repetitively praising BTC as an asset in a portfolio.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin will see growing recognition as a portfolio diversifier, with an annualized return of over 230% for the past five years, which “significantly outperformed” both stocks and traditional safe-haven assets, Kazmierczak said, adding that “even a small 1–5% Bitcoin allocation can meaningfully enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s declining volatility supports BTC’s growing maturity as a global financial asset. Bitcoin’s weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30, a development that may signal more stable price action.

Bitcoin’s price volatility fell below the realized volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, signaling that investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle, Cointelegraph reported on May 13.

Magazine: Uni students crypto ‘grooming’ scandal, 67K scammed by fake women: Asia Express

Politics

Ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe will not be charged over alleged ‘verbal threats’

Published

4 hours ago

May 14, 2025

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Ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe will not be charged over alleged 'verbal threats'

Former Reform MP Rupert Lowe will not be charged after facing allegations of making threats, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.

Malcolm McHaffie, head of the Crown Prosecution Service’s Special Crime Division, said after considering a number of witness statements they have concluded that there is “insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction”.

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He added: “The Crown Prosecution Service’s function is not to decide whether a person is guilty of a criminal offence, but to make fair, independent, and objective assessments about whether it is appropriate to present charges for a criminal court to consider.

“Based on the careful consideration of this evidence, we have decided that our legal test for a criminal prosecution has not been met.”

Mr Lowe was suspended by Reform UK and reported to police following allegations that the MP threatened violence towards party chairman Zia Yusuf.

He always denied wrongdoing and claimed he was the victim of a witch hunt after speaking out against party leader Nigel Farage in the media.

In a lengthy statement following the CPS’s decision, the Great Yarmouth MP said he was referred to the police in “a sinister attempt to weaponise the criminal justice system against me – putting not just my political future, but my liberty at risk”.

He said this was “all because I dared to raise constructive criticisms of Nigel Farage, stood firm on deporting illegal migrants, and pushed for Reform to be run democratically – not as a vehicle to stroke one man’s ego”.

Reform responded “with a brutal smear campaign”, he said, claiming figures in the party briefed journalists he had dementia.

Farage ‘a coward and a viper’

Mr Lowe said: “I am ashamed to have shared a parliamentary platform with them. Ashamed to have trusted them. Ashamed to have called them friends. Farage is no leader – he is a coward and a viper. I feel deeply embarrassed that I ever thought he was the man to lead.

“It’s my view that the police process was weaponised to silence a party colleague who raised reasonable concerns.

“If Farage were ever to control the vast power of the British state, I believe he would not hesitate to do to his adversaries what they have tried to do to me. With real power, I fear he would wield that immense responsibility to crush dissent – as he has done time and again over the years.

“Smearing my innocent staff in a pathetic attempt to attack me was disgusting, alongside briefings to journalists from senior Reform figures suggesting I had dementia – the lowest, vilest tactics I have seen in my 67 years. They are not fit to lead. They are not fit to be MPs.”

Mr Lowe went onto say that “for the good of our country, Nigel Farage must never be prime minister”.

In a hint at his political future he added: “When the time soon comes, we will work together to advance a political movement that is credible, professional, decent, democratic and honest. There will, very soon, be an alternative to the rotten leadership of Reform.

“You’ll be hearing a lot more from me, very soon.”

Sky News has contacted Reform UK for comment.

The row poses danger for a party that has its sights on entering government at the next election after a meteoric rise in the polls.

It broke out in March after Mr Lowe gave an interview to the Daily Mail in which he said it was “too early to know” if Mr Farage will become prime minister and warned Reform remains a “protest party led by the Messiah” under the Clacton MP.

Soon after, Reform UK announced it had referred him to police and suspended him, alleging he made “verbal threats” against chairman Zia Yousaf.

The party also claimed it had received complaints from two female employees about bullying in his constituency offices, which he also denied.

Mr Lowe was one of the five Reform MPs elected to parliament in July and now sits as an independent.

He previously sat as the chairman of Southampton Football Club before entering politics.

During Mr Farage’s online falling out with Elon Musk in January, in which the world’s richest man said Reform needed a new leader, Mr Lowe drew praise from Mr Musk.

Politics

Ex-SEC Chair Gary Gensler privately supported crypto — McHenry

Published

6 hours ago

May 14, 2025

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Ex-SEC Chair Gary Gensler privately supported crypto — McHenry

Former US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler may not have been as hostile to crypto behind closed doors as he appeared to be in public, according to former US Representative Patrick McHenry.

In a May 13 appearance on the Crypto in America podcast, McHenry revealed that during private meetings with Gensler, the former regulator expressed a far more nuanced view of digital assets.

“Did he come across, or was he as anti-crypto in private as he did in public?” McHenry was asked. His response: “No… Nope.”

McHenry noted that Gensler “saw the value of digital assets” and acknowledged the potential of blockchain technology during his time at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Gerald Gallagher, general counsel at Sei Labs, also noted that Gensler played a role in developing the concept of the airdrop during his academic work, calling it a largely forgotten chapter in his background.

However, once Gensler became SEC chair, McHenry said, his stance shifted dramatically. “I had this weird, mistaken, stupid belief that he wouldn’t be that bad as SEC chair,” McHenry admitted. “And I mean, just the level of dismay.”

Gensler’s crypto stance was “confusing”

McHenry said discussions with Gensler on crypto regulation were often confusing.

McHenry said conversations with Gensler about legal frameworks and content structures often started off as reasonable, but quickly became contradictory. He described how Gensler would initially agree with certain points, only to later reject the same facts he had acknowledged moments earlier.

According to McHenry, Gensler’s public opposition may have been shaped more by “Senate politics and confirmation politics than anything else.”

After departing the SEC on Jan. 20, Gensler returned to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to teach fintech and AI.

Under Gensler’s tenure, which started in 2021, the SEC took an aggressive regulatory stance toward crypto, bringing upward of 100 regulatory actions against industry companies.

The regulatory hostility caused Gensler and his team much scrutiny and backlash from industry leaders.

In December 2024, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced that the crypto exchange would sever ties with law firms employing former SEC officials involved in what he said was an effort to “unlawfully kill” the crypto industry.