Votes are being counted in the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections, where Labour will be looking to capitalise on the UK entering a recession to inflict a double defeat on Rishi Sunak.
The Tories are defending traditionally safe seats in South Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire, following the departures of Chris Skidmore and Peter Bone, respectively.
But the polls in both seats opened on the same day the UK economy officially entered recession, throwing into question Mr Sunak’s pledge to grow the economy and handing Labour the attack line of “Rishi’s recession”.
However, the Labour Party is enduring trouble of its own following the fallout over its candidate in the Rochdale by-election, which takes place later this month.
Conservatives have privately admitted that their party is braced for defeats in both by-elections, given the circumstances in which both Mr Bone and Mr Skidmore left parliament.
The Conservatives said after the polls closed that they have fought “robust campaigns” in both seats – but that winning was “always going to be hard”. They added that the government rarely wins by-elections.
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If the Tories lose both seats, it would signal a new post-war record of the most Conservative seats lost in by-elections in one parliament – overtaking the Major administration between 1992 and 1997.
On the Labour side, Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, said both seats were beyond their target list – and it will “be some time before we know the results”.
Mr Skidmore quit his Kingswood seat, where the Tory majority is 11,220, over what he believed to be the government’s scaling back of green policies, specifically its plans to offer new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
At the next election, the Kingswood seat will cease to exist owing to the boundary review.
It is understood the Conservatives see both by-elections as the “worst possible circumstances” that are not comparable to a general election. They hope the swing away from the party will be smaller than the losses they endured in Tamworth and Selby last year, where the swing was more than 20% towards Labour.
Neither Mr Sunak nor any high-profile cabinet ministers have been seen in either Wellingborough or Kingswood in an indication of how the Tories are prioritising resources into mayoral contests in May and the general election, which is expected in the autumn.
The Tories are also braced for a good performance of rivals the Reform Party, which is expecting its best-ever result in Wellingborough.
Sources in the Reform Party have said they are aiming for their polling average of around 10%.
Labour, meanwhile, has sought to manage expectations given it hasn’t held both seats for a number of years.
Image: Votes are counted for the Kingswood by-election at the Thornbury Leisure Centre, Gloucestershire.
‘Rishi’s recession’
A recession is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts rather than grows.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that gross domestic product (GDP), a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December.
In response, the chancellor pointed to the fact the rate of inflation remained at 4% yesterday, despite forecasters predicting a rise.
Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remained “the single biggest barrier to growth” and added: “Low growth is not a surprise.”
He insisted there were “signs the British economy is turning a corner” and the UK must “stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy”.
But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said that while the GDP figures are “provisional and may change”, it was “absolutely clear that Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline”.
Ms Reeves said the prime minister’s promise to grow the economy had been “broken” and he had “now put the economy into reverse”.
“This is Rishi’s recession and it is the British people who will pay the price,” she said.
While Labour is still 19% ahead in the polls, according to Sky News’ poll tracker, the party has been enduring trouble of its own after it was forced to withdraw support of its candidate in the Rochdale by-election of 29 February over alleged antisemitic remarks.
While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer argued he had taken “decisive action” concerning Mr Ali, the Tories have criticised the fact that Labour only withdrew support for Mr Ali in Rochdale when further comments came to light.
Labour was then rocked by revelations that another parliamentary candidate and former MP, Graham Jones, allegedly referred to “f***ing Israel” during the same meeting where Mr Ali made his initial comments – resulting in his suspension.
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Voters began casting their ballots in Thursday’s by-elections at 7am, with polling stations shutting their doors at 10pm.
Both results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning – and Sky News will bring you the news, analysis and reaction on a special programme from midnight, as well as online in the Politics Hub.
Sophisticated drones sending “overwhelming amounts” of drugs and weapons into prisons represent a threat to national security, according to an annual inspection report by the prisons watchdog.
HMP chief inspector of prisons Charlie Taylor has warned criminal gangs are targeting jails and making huge profits selling contraband to a “vulnerable and bored” prison population.
The watchdog boss reiterated his concerns about drones making regular deliveries to two Category A jails, HMP Long Lartin and HMP Manchester, which hold “the most dangerous men in the country”, including terrorists.
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2:28
Ex-convict: Prison is ‘birthing bigger criminals’
Mr Taylor said “the police and prison service have in effect ceded the airspace” above these two high-security prisons, which he said was compromising the “safety of staff, prisoners, and ultimately that of the public”.
“The possibility now whereby we’re seeing packages of up to 10kg brought in by serious organised crime means that in some prisons there is now a menu of drugs available,” he said. “Anything from steroids to cannabis, to things like spice and cocaine.”
“Drone technology is moving fast… there is a level of risk that’s posed by drones that I think is different from what we’ve seen in the past,” warned the chief inspector – who also said there’s a “theoretical risk” that a prisoner could escape by being carried out of a jail by a drone.
He urged the prison service to “get a grip” of the issue, stating: “We’d like to see the government, security services, coming together, using technology, using intelligence, so that this risk doesn’t materialise.”
Image: The report highlights disrepair at prisons around the country
The report makes clear that physical security – such as netting, windows and CCTV – is “inadequate” in some jails, including Manchester, with “inexperienced staff” being “manipulated”.
Mr Taylor said there are “basic” measures which could help prevent the use of drones, such as mowing the lawn, “so we don’t get packages disguised as things like astro turf”.
Responding to the report, the Prison Advice and Care Trust (PACT) said: “The ready access to drugs is deeply worrying and is undermining efforts to create places of rehabilitation.”
Mr Taylor’s report found that overcrowding continues to be what he described as a “major issue”, with increasing levels of violence against staff and between prisoners, combined with a lack of purposeful activity.
Some 20% of adult men responding to prisoner surveys said they felt unsafe at the time of the inspection, increasing to 30% in the high security estate.
Andrea Coomber, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “This report is a checklist for all the reasons the government must prioritise reducing prison numbers, urgently.
“Sentencing reform is essential, and sensible steps to reduce the prison population would save lives.”
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0:51
May: Male prison capacity running at 99%
The report comes after the government pledged to accept most of the recommendations proposed in the independent review of sentencing policy, with the aim of freeing up around 9,500 spaces.
Those measures won’t come into effect until spring 2026.
Prisons Minister Lord Timpson said Mr Taylor’s findings show “the scale of the crisis” the government “inherited”, with “prisons dangerously full, rife with drugs and violence”.
He said: “After just 500 prison places added in 14 years, we’re building 14,000 extra – with 2,400 already delivered – and reforming sentencing to ensure we never run out of space again.
“We’re also investing £40m to bolster security, alongside stepping up cooperation with police to combat drones and stop the contraband which fuels violence behind bars.”
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The education secretary has said children with special needs will “always” have a legal right to additional support as she sought to quell a looming row over potential cuts.
The government is facing a potential repeat of the debacle over welfare reform due to suggestions it could scrap tailored plans for children and young people with special needs in the classroom.
Speaking in the Commons on Monday, Bridget Phillipson failed to rule out abolishing education, health and care plans (EHCPs) – legally-binding plans to ensure children and young people receive bespoke support in either mainstream or specialist schools.
Laura Trott, the shadow education secretary, said parents’ anxiety was “through the roof” following reports over the weekend that EHCPs could be scrapped.
She said parents “need and deserve answers” and asked: “Can she confirm that no parent or child will have their right to support reduced, replaced or removed as a result of her planned changes?”
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2:45
Sophy’s thought on whether to scrap EHCPs
Ms Phillipson said SEND provision was a “serious and complex area” and that the government’s plans would be set out in a white paper that would be published later in the year.
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“I would say to all parents of children with SEND, there is no responsibility I take more seriously than our responsibility to some of the most vulnerable children in our country,” she said.
“We will ensure, as a government, that children get better access to more support, strengthened support, with a much sharper focus on early intervention.”
ECHPs are drawn up by local councils and are available to children and young people aged up to 25 who need more support than is provided by the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) budget.
They identify educational, health and social needs and set out the additional support to meet those needs.
In total, there were 638,745 EHCPs in place in January 2025 – up 10.8% on the same point last year.
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One Labour MP said they were concerned the government risked making the “same mistakes” over ECHPs as it did with the row over welfare, when it was eventually forced into a humiliating climbdownin the face of opposition by Labour MPs.
“The political risk is much higher even than with welfare, and I’m worried it’s being driven by a need to save money which it shouldn’t be,” they told Sky News.
“Some colleagues are rebel ready.”
The MP said the government should be “charting a transition from where we are now to where we need to be”, adding: “That may well be a future without ECHPs, because there is mainstream capacity – but that cannot be a removal of current provision.”
Later in the debate, Ms Phillipson said children with special educational needs and disabilities would “always” have a “legal right” to additional support as she accused a Conservative MP of attempting to “scare” parents.
“The guiding principle of any reform to the SEND system that we will set out will be about better support for children, strengthened support for children and improved support for children, both inside and outside of special schools,” she said.
“Improved inclusivity in mainstream schools, more specialist provision in mainstream schools, and absolutely drawing on the expertise of the specialist sector in creating the places where we need them, there will always be a legal right … to the additional support… that children with SEND need.”
Her words were echoed by schools minister Catherine McKinnell, who also did not rule out changing ECHPs.
She told the Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge that the government was “focused on reforming the whole system”.
“Children and families have been left in a system where they’ve had to fight for their child’s education, and that has to change,” she said.
She added that EHCPs have not necessarily “fixed the situation” for some children – but for others it’s “really important”.