Votes are being counted in the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections, where Labour will be looking to capitalise on the UK entering a recession to inflict a double defeat on Rishi Sunak.
The Tories are defending traditionally safe seats in South Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire, following the departures of Chris Skidmore and Peter Bone, respectively.
But the polls in both seats opened on the same day the UK economy officially entered recession, throwing into question Mr Sunak’s pledge to grow the economy and handing Labour the attack line of “Rishi’s recession”.
However, the Labour Party is enduring trouble of its own following the fallout over its candidate in the Rochdale by-election, which takes place later this month.
Conservatives have privately admitted that their party is braced for defeats in both by-elections, given the circumstances in which both Mr Bone and Mr Skidmore left parliament.
The Conservatives said after the polls closed that they have fought “robust campaigns” in both seats – but that winning was “always going to be hard”. They added that the government rarely wins by-elections.
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If the Tories lose both seats, it would signal a new post-war record of the most Conservative seats lost in by-elections in one parliament – overtaking the Major administration between 1992 and 1997.
On the Labour side, Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, said both seats were beyond their target list – and it will “be some time before we know the results”.
Mr Skidmore quit his Kingswood seat, where the Tory majority is 11,220, over what he believed to be the government’s scaling back of green policies, specifically its plans to offer new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
At the next election, the Kingswood seat will cease to exist owing to the boundary review.
It is understood the Conservatives see both by-elections as the “worst possible circumstances” that are not comparable to a general election. They hope the swing away from the party will be smaller than the losses they endured in Tamworth and Selby last year, where the swing was more than 20% towards Labour.
Neither Mr Sunak nor any high-profile cabinet ministers have been seen in either Wellingborough or Kingswood in an indication of how the Tories are prioritising resources into mayoral contests in May and the general election, which is expected in the autumn.
The Tories are also braced for a good performance of rivals the Reform Party, which is expecting its best-ever result in Wellingborough.
Sources in the Reform Party have said they are aiming for their polling average of around 10%.
Labour, meanwhile, has sought to manage expectations given it hasn’t held both seats for a number of years.
‘Rishi’s recession’
A recession is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts rather than grows.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that gross domestic product (GDP), a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December.
In response, the chancellor pointed to the fact the rate of inflation remained at 4% yesterday, despite forecasters predicting a rise.
Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remained “the single biggest barrier to growth” and added: “Low growth is not a surprise.”
He insisted there were “signs the British economy is turning a corner” and the UK must “stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy”.
But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said that while the GDP figures are “provisional and may change”, it was “absolutely clear that Britain remains trapped in a spiral of economic decline”.
Ms Reeves said the prime minister’s promise to grow the economy had been “broken” and he had “now put the economy into reverse”.
“This is Rishi’s recession and it is the British people who will pay the price,” she said.
While Labour is still 19% ahead in the polls, according to Sky News’ poll tracker, the party has been enduring trouble of its own after it was forced to withdraw support of its candidate in the Rochdale by-election of 29 February over alleged antisemitic remarks.
While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer argued he had taken “decisive action” concerning Mr Ali, the Tories have criticised the fact that Labour only withdrew support for Mr Ali in Rochdale when further comments came to light.
Labour was then rocked by revelations that another parliamentary candidate and former MP, Graham Jones, allegedly referred to “f***ing Israel” during the same meeting where Mr Ali made his initial comments – resulting in his suspension.
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Voters began casting their ballots in Thursday’s by-elections at 7am, with polling stations shutting their doors at 10pm.
Both results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning – and Sky News will bring you the news, analysis and reaction on a special programme from midnight, as well as online in the Politics Hub.
“Every morning I wake up and there is a small part of me that thinks, ‘Is today the day I’m going to be diagnosed with some sort of cancer?'”
This is the question Susan Lee asks herself every day. It is part of the mental anguish of living with Hepatitis C.
Susan was born with Von Willebrand disease.
As a child, her blood clotting disorder was treated with a product called Factor 8. It was supposed to revolutionise treatment for haemophiliacs.
Instead the American product farmed from prisoners and drug addicts was infected with HIV and Hepatitis. It was never screened or treated before being injected into the veins of patients.
The risks were known. Susan’s father raised concerns.
“I remember specifically on one occasion he went into the consulting room and spoke to my consultant,” says Susan.
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“[He] said, ‘I’m very worried about this, and I want you to let me know if Susan has or will receive any American blood products’.
“And he said to my father, ‘Absolutely not’.”
However, at 14, Susan discovered she had been infected with Hepatitis C, like thousands of other patients in the worst NHS treatment scandal in history.
Susan believes patients like her were exposed to great risk and potential death to increase profits for the companies that were producing these blood products.
“I think unfortunately it always comes down to cost implications. And we know that American blood products were cheaper from those big pharmaceutical companies.
“We know there were other treatment options available. There were German products that were out there and could have been used, but at a higher price point, and they were not chosen.”
The Hepatitis C infection has had a devasting impact on every part of Susan’s life. She has had to give up her career as a barrister.
“It’s been a really, really difficult time for us as a family. And it’s intergenerational because we were given these products to take home, my parents were taught how to inject. My mother has a huge feeling of guilt surrounding that,” she says.
“Three weeks ago, she sat me down and said, ‘I’m so terribly sorry.’
“I said, ‘You’ve got absolutely nothing to be sorry for. It was nothing to do with you. You did your best’.
“Also my children, from having witnessed the times that I was really, really sick, you know, my daughters asking me, ‘Mummy, why can’t you run in the school races and for sports day?’
“Because I could barely lift my head off the pillow to get out of bed to be there.”
Later this morning, Susan and the thousands of other victims of the infected blood scandal will get answers to the decades-long search for the truth.
At Westminster’s Methodist’s Central Hall just after midday, Sir Brian Langstaff will deliver his report into the infected blood scandal. It is expected to be damning.
Des Collins, senior partner of Collins Solicitors which represents 1,500 victims and their families, said the inquiry chair is likely to hold many people accountable.
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“If you are going to point the finger at someone, you’ve got to give them notice and it’s that notice process which has delayed [the report] probably for the last six months. So a lot of people will have the finger pointed at them.
“They will be held accountable for each individual part of the scandal, which is appropriate insofar as their involvement is concerned.
“I don’t think we’re going to get the finger pointed at one person saying, ‘You are responsible for the whole thing,’ because there are so many people involved in it and they’re all making individual decisions.”
The significance of this moment cannot be overstated.
The great hall will be full of people infected with deadly diseases in secret trials, bereaved parents who saw their children die and all of the others affected by this preventable tragedy.
The atmosphere will be charged with emotion, anger and hopefully relief.
The delay in delivering justice has compounded the grief and anguish felt by so many. After being lied to and ignored for decades, they finally have their day.
This report must mark the beginning of the end of this shameful scandal.
Sky News will have full coverage of the infected blood report on TV, online and on the Sky News app today
“Losing Gary, my soul mate, was beyond painful,” says Kathryn Croucher, whose husband died aged 42 in 2010.
“Every day was a struggle dealing with the knowledge he was HIV and Hepatitis C positive.”
“Mum always said she was given a death sentence,” recalls Ronan Fitzgerald. His mother, Jane, died aged 54 after being infected with Hepatitis C when she was 16. “It was a ticking time bomb.”
Sky News will have full coverage of the infected blood report on TV, online and on the Sky News app today.
More than 30,000 Britons were infected with HIV and Hepatitis C after being given contaminated blood products in the 1970s and 1980s.
Around 3,000 people have died as a result of the scandal, while many more still live under the shadow of health problems, debilitating treatments and stigma. Now, the findings of a public inquiry, first announced in 2017, will finally be published.
These are 100 faces of infected blood victims that either they, or their families, have shared with Sky News.
“I’m never drinking tap water again,” Kayley Lewis says.
“My symptoms have made me lose a stone in two weeks.”
Ms Lewis and her two children have been suffering from diarrhoea, vomiting and stomach cramps for over a fortnight – since South West Water found small traces of the parasite cryptosporidium in the Hillhead reservoir.
“I can’t trust them [South West Water] again.
“I might start using tap water for dishes… but definitely never to drink. Ever.
“I’ve been completely put off now… especially because of how poorly it makes you feel.
“I just don’t think I could ever try and risk going back to that.”
At least 46 people are confirmed to have the disease, while as many as 70 other cases of diarrhoea and vomiting are also under investigation, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has said.
South West Water (SWW) has repeatedly apologised – telling Sky News today that they are working “around the clock” to get all households back to using safe water again.
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This could be as early as this Wednesday, drought and resilience director at SWW David Harris told me.
“We’re looking at somewhere between mid to late next week before we’ll be in a position to be able to responsibly lift that boil water notice.”
So far, 14,500 households in the Alston supply area can drink their tap water without boiling it first – as advised by SWW.
However, some 2,500 homes in Hillhead, upper parts of Brixham and Kingswear have been told to continue boiling – and cooling – their water supplies before drinking it.
Steve Price, who runs the Station Guest House B&B near Brixham, said he lost a couple of thousand pounds in bookings due to – understandably – paranoid customers.
“Losses we anticipate are roughly around £2000 from people that have cancelled and directly stated that the cancellation was due to the water situation.
“So we would anticipate that at the bare minimum as compensation.”